Lastest seat projections from LISPOP put the Conservatives short of a majority

By Harold Jansen on Sep 16, 2008

One of the challenges of interpreting public opinion polls and predicting election outcomes in Canada is the single member plurality electoral system that only loosely translates popular vote into seats. That's why models that try to predict seat totals are interesting. One of the oldest and most successful is done by the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy. Political scientist Barry Kay has developed a model that looks at regional shifts in party support as reported in polls and maps that on what we see at the district level in the previous election. He has a new seat projection out today that puts the Conservatives at 145 seats, ten short of a majority. Most of those gains over 2006 would come at the expense of the Bloc in Quebec and the Liberals in Ontario. Interestingly, Kay's projections see the Liberal seat totals up in Quebec a a few gains in Atlantic Canada and Quebec. Overall, the Liberals break pretty much even as do the NDP. The story is essentially one of Bloc collapse and Conservative gains. The picture painted by polls and by the seat projections is that Quebec is the real story of the election.

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I'd say based on the trends

I'd say based on the trends that Liberal gains as outlined in this study are very generous.

I am still estimating a massive loss for the Liberals and majority for the Tories.

More of the same....

I'm surprised to hear that the Liberals will gain in Que. CBC had an interesting interview tonight with editors from a couple of Que papers and they feel Dion has not connected with Que voters. It will be interesting to see if the recent sidekick addition of Bob Rae will help prop up Dion in Que and Ont. And what no green seats?? And wait Jack will not be the PM...

After all, we fought the Yanks in 1812 and kicked them the hell out of our country - but not with blanks. - Farley Mowat

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