Latest LISPOP projections have Conservatives just short of a majority

By Harold Jansen on Sep 25, 2008

Professor Barry Kay has posted his latest projections of how vote shifts will translate into seats and he has the Conservatives at 153 seats, tantalizingly close to that magic number of 155. It will be interesting to see if there is any fear of a Conservative majority out there and if that sparks a backlash against the party in the last half of the campaign. It will also be interesting to see whether Dion and Layton shift their campaigns from talking about forming a government to denying Harper a majority.

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Old tactic probably won't work this time

Layton and Dion may try that line of attack, but I'm willing to bet it would backfire. The old "hidden agenda" attack against Harper and the Conservatives has really lost its luster over the years.

Harper will simply point out that the last couple of years of reasonable governance prove he's got nothing to hide and that Canadians have nothing to fear.

If I'm right - that Canadians aren't afraid of a Harper lead Conservative majority - and Layton and Dion do try to "shift their campaigns from talking about forming a government to denying Harper a majority" it'll be a clear admission that they've lost the election and they're out of ideas. If that happens, it'll be a Conservative majority.

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