My Prediction: Dion will stay on
I hate making predictions, but can't help feeling that every smarmy media pundit on the air this evening was wrong about Dion's impending resignation.
Dion is smart and, like Harper, he's improving. He's also stubborn. If Dion is intent on staying on - and the fact that he didn't announce his resignation this evening suggests that he is - then the party will discover that there are enormous costs attached to getting rid of him.
Canada may be entering a new period of alternating minority governments, with Harper and Dion taking the places of Diefenbaker and Pearson.
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Do you think the caucus will stand for it?
He certainly didn't sound like he was going anywhere last night. Do you think his MPs will sit by and wait? Liberal MPs played a role in forcing Chretien's hand and he had won three majority governments. I'm curious what you think.
I think that it comes down
I think that it comes down to Dion. If he decides to stay, then people in the party will have to decide whether it's worth the price to force him out. Alot of people may decide that it would be better to give Dion another shot rather than forcing him out and paying for another leadership race just before another election. Rae may be God's gift to the Liberal Party, but he can't win as the leader of a divided, broke party.
We don't have to look much further than Stephen Harper's career trajectory to realize that stranger things have happened.
The Chretien example is a good one, but we'll have to see how it plays out with three leadership contenders in the caucus.