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Way worse than that ...

In reply to Does the Liberal Party Have to Lose in Order to Win?:

I think the Liberal Party has destroyed itself. It doesn't matter what it does, it doesn't have the horses, it doesn't have the policies, it doesn't know what it represents, it only knows that it opposes ...

Let me explain. The Liberal Party used to be the place where the deals were brokered between the regions and language groups of the country. Fundamentally, it was the place where ten provinces became two peoples, and where the leadership was, behind the scenes, a partnership. Mackenzie King's Liberals were the embodiment of that partnership.

That party doesn't exist anymore. First, Trudeau fundamentally ended parts of the partnership by uniting English-speaking and French-speaking wings of the party in one person. (He never had a CD Howe figure, an Anglo lieutenant.) Second, the party has no real roots in French-speaking Quebec, and hasn't, ever since the Bloc was formed. Third, the public has had enough expansion of the welfare state. And fourth, and perhaps most importantly, separatism is fading from the scene, and the young people aren't going for it. (They may still be 'patriotes', but now more quebecois see more clearly that they'd likely do better as a major part of a 30+ million nation than as a nation of 5 million on their own.)

The animating spirit of the Liberal Party is already dead. In a strange way, the only part of it that still works is the vote-getting apparatus. As they say, 'the brand' still has pulling power. But the skeletal remains are occupied by outsiders to the Liberal Party. (In that sense, Bob Rae is as much an outsider as Ignatieff.)

The next generation will not inherit the legacy of the classic Liberal Party.

What remains of the rank and file have the wrong reflexes for our times. They are still back, fighting separatism, and even provoking it if they have to, to make themselves relevant.

The Liberal Party is an anachronism. What we are watching is the birth of a new party out of the elements on the ground ... Can these outsiders do it? Yes, probably. As bad as they are, they still get a quarter of the votes in Canada. Will it be the Liberal Party as we have known it? Not a chance.

Why now?

In reply to Senate Reform in Manitoba -- The Case for a "Weighted Districts" Model:

Four key factors are involved in the Doer government's decision to move on this issue, now.

(1) Harper's actions in December may have motivated the Manitoba government to move on the issue. In this sense, Premier Doer may have been spurred on by (what he perceived to be) higher public attention to Senate reform. (If attendance at committee hearings is any indication, this was certainly not the case.)

(2) Mira Spivak (Ind., PC) will vacate her Senate seat in July (2009). There is no way that the committee could establish an election process by this deadline. However, with a solid plan in place, they may convince the Prime Minister to hold off on appointments until an election can be held. (Given Harper's willingness to fill Senate seats prior to Christmas, they'd better hurry. It may help to have Stephen Fletcher -- Democratic Reform Minister and Winnipeg MP -- on their side.) Realistically, however, the committee is deciding upon a process that will decide nominees for future rounds of Senate appointments. (Barring any [forced] retirements, Manitoba will have one Senate vacancy in 2013, three in 2017, and one in 2021.)

(3) Saskatchewan moved on the issue of Senate elections earlier last year. In this sense, there could be a contagion effect at play, as the Doer government seeks to avoid being the only prairie province without a Senate election process.

(4) Alternatively, the Doer government may be "dumping" this issue in the midst of a recession. The low turnout at committee hearings may demonstrate that most Manitobans care more about issues other than Senate Reform (and numerous presenters said as much). The Government has made no secret of its desire to abolish, rather than reform, the Senate. Nor has it concealed its disdain at reopening the Constitution. In short, the Doer Government's feelings toward Senate reform are lukewarm at best. By holding hearings in the dead of winter, while so many other challenges and issues face Manitobans, they may be seeking affirmation of their own position. Any plans adopted by the Manitoba Government may be viewed as "going through the motions," in this respect.

I think all four of these "drivers" are at play.

Why is the Manitoba Government considering this issue now?

In reply to Senate Reform in Manitoba -- The Case for a "Weighted Districts" Model:

Jared, can you speculate why the Doer government is going through these consultations now? It's been nearly 3 years since the Harper Government proposed senate elections, why the sudden interest?

NDP Contributions By Province

In reply to Crunching the fourth quarter party finance numbers from Elections Canada:

Contributions by contributors who contributed more than $200:

BC $447,656.08 (2,331)

AB $181,493.72 (939)

SK $165,835.76 (764)

MB $102,782.29 (568)

ON $833,900.83 (4,504)

QC $ 66,457.72 (273)

NB $ 20,207.92 (126)

NS $ 61,500.17 (351)

PE $ 2,853.00 (14)

NL $ 12,200.00 (46)

YT $ 4,850.00 (16)

NT $ 7,326.00 (31)

NU $ 1,100.00 (5)

NA $ 910.00 (7) (Outside Canada)

TOTAL: $1,909,073.49

In parentheses is the number of contributions.

Liberal Contributions By Province

In reply to Crunching the fourth quarter party finance numbers from Elections Canada:

Here is a breakdown by province of contributions to the LPC by individuals who contributed more than $200:

BC $ 386,473.48 (1,441)

AB $ 337,566.15 (1,241)

SK $ 71,902.30 (252)

MB $ 123,758.61 (563)

ON $ 1,709,000.72 (5,661)

QC $ 397,696.39 (860)

NB $ 52,491.39 (201)

NS $ 92,274.60 (363)

PE $ 15,085.02 (56)

NL $ 24,738.30 (111)

YT $ 3,699.96 (13)

NT $ 6,803.98 (31)

NU $ 6,865.26 (28)

NA $ 2,650.00 (3) (Outside Canada)

TOTAL: $3,231,006.16 (10,824)

The numbers in parentheses are the number of donations.

Conservative Contributions By Province

In reply to Crunching the fourth quarter party finance numbers from Elections Canada:

Here is a breakdown by province of contributions to the CPC by individuals who contributed more than $200:

BC $1,335,977.16 (4,522)

AB $1,951,552.19 (6,054)

SK $371,264.00 (1,363)

MB $386,934.00 (1,183)

ON $3,155,317.83 (9,991)

QC $384,339.68 (889)

NB $93,908.40 (314)

NS $109,134.93 (404)

PE $24,190.00 (74)

NL $12,725.00 (48)

YT $15,950.00 (42)

NT $18,575.00 (40)

NU $3,935.00 (9)

TOTAL: $7,863,803.19 (24,933)

The numbers in parentheses are the number of donations.

Elections Canada Web Site

In reply to Crunching the fourth quarter party finance numbers from Elections Canada:

Interesting post, Harold. I'm in the process of crunching the numbers from Elections Canada myself. I've noticed some of the candidate campaign returns from the October election have already started appearing on the Elections Canada web site as well.

I think it's important to point out that all the parties get the same amount of subsidy per vote.

I think the per-vote subsidy program is more democratic than private financing. Not everyone can afford to give the maximum ($1,100). Is it fair that those who can afford to give more, get to have more influence? One person donating $1,100 under private financing has the same effect as the votes of 564 people under the subsidy, and they get 75% of it back on their tax return too.

The Conservatives won't last long enough to spend all the money

In reply to What's conservative about the Conservative budget?:

I would also like to add - looking at the actual budget, it looks like the Conservative government is planning on spreading the spending out over multiple years. There are plenty of spending commitments that are going to be structured over the next two/three/four and even five years.

It is highly unlikely that the Liberal Party of Canada is going to wait for the next four years before pulling the plug on Parliament. And by the shear size of the spending promises - and considering the potential backlash from their fiscal conservative wing - neither will the Conservatives

I would vote Conservitive

In reply to If there were an federal election held tomorrow, who would you vote for?:

I would vote Conservitive

Coalition!

In reply to Tactical Lessons, Part II: The Coalition:

What can we learn from the tactics of the coalition? Lots... For starters, the canadian voting public did NOT vote for 3 parties, of which one wants nothing to do with Canada, thus the coalition is in essence, illegal. I don't recall even seeing the Bloq or any rep as a choice! To top it all off, if the coalition was put in place, Quebec (Bloq party) was going to get another 1.3 Billion $$$. I believe that backroom deals involving money to overthrow a government is highly illegal and is tantamount to treason. Bribes, backroom deals that immediately occured after the election process... Stupid is what stupid does... And there's a lot of voters that don't have the brains to figure it out!

The current party, PC's, have done more in less time than the Liberals have done since 1992, when the Creten got in. They have raised the amount of income to all Canadians, cut the GST, and above all, have provided the best plan Canada could have had when the US blew up the world economy. We are the envy of the world, will only feel a pinch recession wise, and we will prevail, thanks to Harper and his PC government.

How soon we forget the scandals and the lies of the Liberals. The best one was "I'll get rid of the GST." The lie was so blatant that the voting public actually fell for it. But there's more... 6 Billion $ of HRDC scandal money (GONE!) The gun registry, 3 billion $$$ and climbing!, Adscam! Hundreds of millions and a few people in jail... The list goes on folks, and now they went to bed with a SEPERATIST party and clown who in a statement during the election campaign stated that "The NDP has a record of balancing the budget" What budget? They have never been in office since the day I was born, 1961! Layton's on crack, Dion has done way too much acid, and the Bloq... Sell the province, put up a big wall with razor wire, before it's too late to get a decent price.

The PC's have been working diligently on the fastest budget ever produced, and the rest of the parties are not even working in the locals that they were voted in. All they're doing is crying!

How many voters out there selected 3 parties to run the Canadian government? Put up your hands!!!!! If you did, your vote does not count.. Because, as we all know, it is cancelled by elections canada.

The Cowboy....

ignatieff

In reply to With Michael Ignatieff as Leader of the Liberal Party, is the Coalition Dead?:

prokop

He is between a rock and a hard place. His Party is disorganized, in poverty, and he has been accalimed, not elected etc and Canadians would view him as they did Dion - unprepared, not elected on a "hidden" platform of the Coalition.

VIVA COALITION

In reply to Is the Problem Coalitions in General or THIS Coalition?:

What part of wake up do Canadians not understand?

Stop watching Asper’s television, pull the tuque above the eyes, wake up, and smell the “cold coup” by Queen Elizabeth via her official representative our Governor General.

Don't Canadians get it that the Queen if it pleases her has the ultimate power shot because she represents the oligarchs of the British-Anglo-Dutch Financiers and they love Harper to keep implementing the North American Union without parliamentary oversight tearing down the firewall of our sovereignty.

Or are we too brainwashed and believe the Queen is only a ceremonial robe of our government? Holy Batman could the reverse be true and that we have been wholly duped.

The truth is our parliament is ceremonial and the Queen calls the official power shots if it so pleases her.

Don't believe me, then pray tell how can the Queen's representative aka Governor General shut parliament down by having a conversation with Mr. Harper, who then comes out all cheery with a fancy bouquet of syntax like "prorogue".

Websters: transitive verb 1 : defer , postpone 2 : to terminate a session of parliament by royal prerogative

So we are all proroguees of the royal Queen's orders.

But please, do keep denying this in your face power grab by Her Majesty. Think. If you want to hide some obvious machination in a monarchy run by the oligarchs - hide it in plain sight - But remember the Queen is only ceremonial. Bull shit.

Ya and I'm selling the queen’s jewels on ebay, and I we just got ceremonial-ized. Prorogued or fragged.

What to do besides being in our polite Canadian comfort zone. Perhaps ya think that we need to move to a zone of action and finish what our majority parties started.

Perhaps Millions of Canadians get out into the streets and protest, disobey the Governor General aka Brutish Empire and shut this country down, go on strike.

Lets get our country back and be number one in health care: universal education, no more students in debt, well funded municipalities, five weeks paid vacation, pure water, pure food (no more Genetically screwed food) pure vaccinations, no more chem trails, no more fluoridation, major funding for cutting edge inventions that benefit all of us and our environment. Stop suppressing cancer cures.

Where will the money come from?

One-stop sovereign banking using our Bank of Canada Act.

We Don’t use private banking cartels, foreign and domestic.

And we cease paying the royal family 10% of our GDP. Do the math 10%+ of almost 2 Trillion every year.

Please do the research and find that the Governor Generals office, really the office of the Queen and her oligarch associates run our economic policy, our intelligence offices, military, and Harper our poster kid for O'Canada Serfdom, aka we the people who fund our own enslavement, trained by our media to enjoy the economic chains we have come to know and love as our freedom-prison like freedom-fries.

Please understand the Queen and the Royal Family "do not" take our third world vaccines and flu shots, they don't drink fluoridated water, they don't eat one iota of genetically altered food because they understand the soft kill implications set up in the 1950s by their associates. The royals have their own herbalists.

Wake up Canada, lets take our country back, now.

Unless we want more of our serfdom fed to us with a high tech overlay.

If this doesn't get you mad then stop drinking Harper's kool aid.

Good Luck

Black Day in Canada

In reply to (What's so Funny 'Bout) Peace, Love and Understanding? Reconciliation and Prorogation:

This week we witnessed a complete breakdown in Canadian leadership with both our elected prime minister and our governor general failing to act in the best interest of Canadian citizens. In the midst of our worst economic crisis in several generations - they jointly provide themselves with a 7 week holiday/respite so that neither of them needs to make a real decision or act quickly to support Canadians in the most demanding hours of the decade. This is a time for brave and firm actions to help all Canadians - not a time to cut and run.

Our confidence in Mr. Harper to make the right decision has been shaken to the core. Our confidence in the governor general has completely evaporated.

Mr. Harper - do the right thing here. Come back to Parliament and work with the opposition in the best interest of all Canadians - not just political best interests. If you can not lead, then let the coalition have at it. We need a government today.

Governor General - please admit to yourself what the rest of the country has come to realize today, that you are not up to the job, and step down.

Black Day in Canada

In reply to Is the Problem Coalitions in General or THIS Coalition?:

Our confidence in Mr. Harper to make the right decision has been shaken to the core. Our confidence in the governor general has completely evaporated.

Governor General - please admit to yourself what the rest of the country has already come to realize, that you are not up to the job, and step down.

Proroguing better for the National Mood

In reply to Considering the Governor General's Decision to Prorogue Parliament:

I'm not sure I am as worried as you are about the future repercussions of this decision. And I think this is the right idea for the good of the country. I can see why its may set a bad precedent for responsible government but I fear the damage of any other choice besides an election could be worse. The thing that worries me the most has been the unprecedented emotional reaction this has set off in Canada. In my readings and conversations with people of all political stripes the response has been the most intense and venomous of any issue in my short lifetime. I fear the consequences of allowing the parliament to go forward as planned could solidify this divisiveness into Canada for a very long time. Conservatives and regional westerners are livid about the possibility of what they see as a coupe, even to the point of mentioning western separatism, an idea I thought was dead. Quebec is getting bashed by the rest of the country who are afraid of having an avowed separatist party having reigns of power. That cannot make them happy. And this whole thing has only served to deepen immensely the left/right divide in Canada. I fear if this whole thing goes forward we could see partisan spite similar to the level we see in the US where each side is demonized to the point of being the enemy. Something I mourn greatly.

I think that suspending parliament until the end of January will allow time for emotions to cool off. It will allow time for people to actually learn about what is going on, it will allow time for the education Canadian's desperately need in this situation. I don't think its fair to blame people for a lack of knowledge of how Canada's parliament works in its finer details when at most they have had high school social class which barely touches on how parliament works. How can we rightfully expect them to know what is going on in a completely unprecedented situation that even Political Scientists don't know what to make of it. I think giving people time to think, to understand exactly what point Parliament is at and what the options are will allow cooler heads to prevail and help remove this from the crisis point it is at now to something a little more stable.

Lots of twists and turns

In reply to If the governor-general agrees to dissolve Parliament, what would the election look like?:

Personally, I think it's more like Run, Lola Run, which is the same idea.

You just never know which way this is going to turn out. A newspaper reporter asked me the other day where I saw Stephen Harper in six months. I told him that it could be any where from Harper being PM of a majority government to him being completely out of politics or to some point in between. At this point, I have no idea which way it's going to go.

The silver lining in this crisis and in the deplorable conduct of our political leaders is that Canadians are waking up and paying attention to what's happening in Ottawa and they're going to learn a lot about our system of government. I'm learning a lot about our system of government by watching this.

Sliding Doors...

In reply to If the governor-general agrees to dissolve Parliament, what would the election look like?:

It feels like we are in that older movie sliding doors. Any slight twist and we could go to any number of alternate futures. One great thing about this crisis is the flood on information about coalition governments and our parliament system. For non-political science people like me it's a real education and eye-opener.

On second thought maybe this is a bit more like the movie Twelve Monkeys...

Keep up the great blogs - interesting read.

Is there a transcript about

In reply to 2004 Alberta General Election:

Is there a transcript about the auto insurance problem? I want to know what promises where made and if I'll ever be able to go chose a cheap auto insurance that will cover all my needs. I'm tired of throwing money away just like that.

Sounds like a good plan to

In reply to Will the Conservative MPs Resign En Masse in Response to Coalition?:

Sounds like a good plan to me.

I thought it was original, but then...

In reply to Stephen Harper is the great unifier in this country:

I came up with this on my own, but then read the Globe and Mail's editorial this morning and they had the same line. They got there first.

Stephen Harper's unifying touch

In reply to Stephen Harper is the great unifier in this country:

I almost didn't want to read this blog entry because its title sounded too admiring. Then I laughed out loud.

If we're doing the math

In reply to Constitutional refresher course: the people do not choose the government:

If we look back at the last election, the Liberal plus NDP share of the vote put them at about 44%, well above the 37% or so the Conservatives got. Add in the BQ and you have a government with a majority of the seats and a majority of the vote. So, I'm not sure that will be a compelling argument to the GG. She must we wondering right now why she took the job. I mean, the travel and Rideau Hall are nice and everything, but ....

Whither the GG?

In reply to Constitutional refresher course: the people do not choose the government:

I agree Harold in the technical sense (kind of like a technical recession, technical) the Governor General does choose the government but I think she has a duty to respect the will of the people. Whether that is clear in this case is another thing all together. One might argue that securing 143 seats or so and 38?% of the popular vote in the last election is fairly compelling. Compared with what a Liberal-NDP coalition led by a man whose approval rating is abominable have to offer. Oh the joy of living in interesting times.

I agree, but how is the Liberals and NDP going to sell that...

In reply to Constitutional refresher course: the people do not choose the government:

The one area where the GG has some discretion is in the appointment of the Prime Minister.

That fact is going to be a hard sell by the Governor General's office and the opposition if this coalition goes forward.

From time to time I get emails from people who mistaken MLW as something it's not, e.g. the Liberal Party, Conservative Party, Prime Ministers Office, etc. I presume it's because we have in-depth features on all these public offices and when passionate about something (or someone) mistaken identity online can happen. While certainly not scientific - this specific "crisis" has generated the most mistaken identity emails I've ever seen - the emails I have received are overwhelming against the idea of a coalition.

It will be interesting to see how this all plays out.

I may be mistaken but I

In reply to Towards a citizen-based system of party finance?:

I may be mistaken but I thought it was a partial reimbursement. I agree that reimbursements should be removed as well, but I guess this is a case of one thing at a time. I am not getting my hopes up for the removal of reimbursements though, since this a feature of party finance law that likely disproportionately helpsthe conservatives.

I think this will be a very

In reply to The end of $1.75 per year per vote?:

I think this will be a very easy sell for Harper given the current economic climate.

Also, remember that this will be bundled with cuts to discretionary spending for MP's, and senior civil servants. Harper and Flaherty have put together a very mixed bag here.

The cuts in discretionary spending and pay freezes are a no brainer, and no MP could vote against that without looking greedy and in a conflict of interest.

The removal of public financing for political parties can be spun like the pay freeze, but entails something more sinister for the opposition parties.

I wonder can the opposition can attack public financing at committee and avoid debate on the bundled legislation. If the opposition is going to win this fight, they need to use a scalpel to get what they want.

2007 Quebec General Election

In reply to 2007 Quebec General Election:

The PLQ (Parti Liberal du Quebec), a federalist party that otherwise has deep ideological divides, is the governing party, and holds a majority of seats. The PQ (Parti Quebecois), a sovereigntist party that is mostly left-leaning, is the primary opposition and is doing well in the polls. The ADQ (Action Democratique du Quebec) is trailing in third place in most polls, generally down from their result in 2003. They are weakly sovereigntist (less so than the PQ) and decidely right-wing. The ADQ is also mostly a personality cult around leader Mario Dumont. -------------- johnsmith quebec drug rehab

Thanks

In reply to Considering the 2008 Election Results: Canada’s Electoral System Needs to be Replaced:

One of the best posts on Mapleleafweb to date. Thanks Harold