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Patrick Smith - - Week Four Grades

Political Parties

Bloc Quebecois

Gilles Duceppe focussed on his core for the two national debates and did well enough that the Bloc will go toward June 28th with a solid lead in Quebec. How well the Bloc do will spell trouble for the Liberals and Ontario voters seem ready to offer a different opinion on national politics than the last several Canadian general Elections.

The Bloc – from far-away BC - seems to be still running (waltzing) from the front. It’s been a good strategy.

Challenges:

• staying on task and not getting too blasé.

Upsides:

• Not a hairnet in sight, but kingmaker crown entirely possible for the Bloc.

Conservative Party

Stephen Harper held his own during both national debates. He also managed (despite social policy outbursts from individual new Conservative candidates) to keep most social policy matters ‘under control. Only late and large slips seem likely to turn the tide (if not the wind) against the Tory party on June 28th.

Staying ‘on message’ will be key for the still tightly scripted new Conservatives in the final week.

Challenges:

• whether Canadians will fear more the notion of a hidden Harper agenda or the stated one.
• stick-handling around (or at least not stepping in) the cow-pie dropped by Alberta Premier Ralph Klein on Health Care – still the number one issue for Canadians
• Stephen Harper’s ‘slip’ on bilingualism at Air Canada serves as a reminder about agendas not elucidated and potentially hurt the Tories. [That slip by the leader cost the Tories a B+ this week]
• deciding how to deal with Surrey’s Chuck Cadman, who might be the only Independent elected on June 28th.
• the possible irony of a Harper ‘win’ in Canada and a Kerry win in the US

Upsides:

• three rounds down, one to go and ahead on points. No knockouts likely, even TKO’s, but if Paul Martin’s ‘wind’ is actually “for change” then the big Tory question is whether a minority might morph toward a majority.

Liberal Party

Paul Martin survived the debates but when he suggested this week that the winds were in the Liberal sails, it might have been gas.

It would have been hard for PM Martin to actually win both debates, but not winning did little to support his notion of Liberal ‘wind’ as anything other than gastric.

And new negative ads do not yet seem to have penetrated the national psyche.

Challenges: into the final week of the campaign:

• ensuring that some of the doubts about Stephen Harper and the new Conservatives stick; getting the Tory leader and candidates ‘off message’ might help here.
• ensuring that the cup won by Martin in late 2003 is not a poison chalice from Jean Chretien
• running through the tape vs. slowing down before the end of the final week sprint
• what the Grits will do IF Martin loses the race. The ghost of Jean Chretien at Burnham Wood might factor in to such an equation. 

Upsides:

• Stephen Harper on bilingualism at Air Canada as a reminder of that ‘hidden agenda’
• desperate times call for desperate measures…
• release the “Hail Mary’ pass – and hope

New Democratic Party

The NDP in week four managed to continue to slide wedges for voters to consider as questions of strategic voting emerge in individual riding races. These can cut both for and against the NDP and Jack Layton’s job is to ensure they slide to the NDP. Local candidates, from Kennedy Stewart in Vancouver Centre to Ed Broadbent in Ottawa, have helped greatly in this task.

Layton’s debate performance was on message and pesky for the main two party opponents and identified the NDP as ‘different’.

Doubling the NDP seats is entirely possible; more is less certain. Either result does not help the natural governing Liberals as they seek that elusive fourth term.
The NDP has staked out some clear policy turf and managed a coherent campaign.

Challenges:

• concentrating on the key races, expanding the base and emphasizing the role of the NDP in more accountable government
• deciding what parts of its platform will form the basis of post election deal-making if minorities prevail

Upsides:

• A re-invigorated NDP will ensure their core vote is counted
• The Liberal – Conservative ‘dog-fight’ may find many voters in English Canada seeking an alternative which could make a difference

Other/Minor Parties: C

• “Les autres” will spoil in a half dozen constituencies in 2004.
• ‘former’ Alliance MP Chuck Cadman will run the official Tory into third place (or 4th) in Surrey. What will his reward be?
• the rest will be politically condemned

Past Political Party Grades

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