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Patrick Smith - Week One Grades

Political Parties

Bloc Quebecois

Gilles Duceppe and the Bloc were handed a revival in the form of Auditor General Sheila Fraser’s report on the Sponsorship file. Motoring quietly in a Fiat, the Bloc inherited a Ferrari engine in Spring 04: rumours of federal Liberal “vote buying” during the 1995 Quebec referendum had largely been dismissed or forgotten; when Sheila Fraser ‘found’ $100million in misspent federal funds, largely explained by the Liberals as “we were fighting for the country” rather than we gave considerable portions of it to Liberal-friendly ad agencies, often for what the Auditor General called “work not done”, the Bloc revved up their new political engine. That many of these same agencies were significant contributors to the federal Liberal Party only helps their cause.

If Paul Martin’s Liberals had been counting on a Quebec bounce to compensate for anticipated loses in Ontario (it’s hard to run near 100% of seats indefinitely), the sponsorship scandal breathed new life into the Bloc – at the early running of the campaign running well ahead of the Grits in the province.

Without some Liberal revival in Quebec, minority government chances increase – particularly if new Liberal ‘gains’ in western Canada fail to materialize as well.

For week one, the best show

Challenges:

Keeping Leader Duceppe out of hairnets (not unlike, much earlier, keeping Robert Stanfield away from footballs)

Upsides:

The obvious anger of Quebec voters – and an electoral system which rewards parties which cluster their votes.

Conservative Party

The new Conservatives – having morphed from Reform to the Alliance to the Conservatives – have sought to portray selves as a more modern, moderate, centrist party. The early running of Liberal attack ads seek to portray their leader, Stephen Harper, as none of the above – rather as right-wing, pro-American militarist, pro-private health care and balkanized vs. pan-Canadian. Chairing the Public Accounts Committee helped keep the ethics-challenged view of govt created by the sponsorship scandal on the burner for the Conservatives up to the call; it also added a delay factor for an earlier Spring election call from the PM.

After several failed efforts there IS as single Conservative Party again; whether that will add up to the combined totals of both Alliance and PC's from last round is a question. Early polls suggest no – though their call for change resonates across an electorate indicating a certain skittishness with more of the same.

The Tories get the first “push comes to shove award” for getting out in front on gas prices, offering to cut GST if over 85 cents, forcing first govtal rejection, and then (within hours) a new plan to spend ‘excess' GST on $1.00 gasoline on medical equipment.

Suggesting the PM put military personnel at risk in Sea Kings represented a more calculated effort to link sponsorship mis-spending and military under spending.

Challenges:

• The perception/reality challenge – with a reminder of an earlier version of Refo rm /Alliance on official language policy and the resignation of the ‘new' Conservatives language critic in week one; how that will play out in vote-rich central Canada could be a factor
• the new Stephen Harper image challenge

Upsides:

• the Ghost of former PC/Harper adversary John Crosbie as ‘now on board' the new Conservative bus, providing a signal that the bus is large enough to still carry some Red Tories, even if Joe Clark's seat was sold

Liberal Party

The Liberals hit the election call week with all the gusto incumbency could provide:

• announcements and $'s flowed – for everything from ‘new' billions for health care and $2 billion (sometime into future and IF provinces co-operate) for cities to Juno Beach D-Day vets seeking travel support to the 60th anniversary ($3million);
• the Public Accounts Committee work on sponsorships was shut down prior to the call though not quite silenced with a collective opposition ‘minority report';
• controversial bills such as on marijuana decriminalization were left to die on the order paper, just as the Supreme Court reference decision on same-sex marriage was put off until after the general election with a strategic additional question from the Justice Minister in an effort to take some potential policy hot potatoes off of the electoral menu.

Challenges at week one down to e-day on June 28:

• include an incumbent government seeking a 4th term re-election - only the early Tories (1878-1896 – 4 times), Liberals (1896—1911 - 4 times) and Liberals (between 1935-57 – 5 times) have managed such a feat and making senior citizen and long-serving Finance Minister Martin look new
• an electorate exercised negatively by the sponsorship scandal – and not only in Quebec; the ghost of Alphonse Gagliano's law suit for wrongful dismissal by the Prime Minister threatening to keep the sponsorship issue alive
• high gas price reactions
• a Prime Minister accused of talking the democratic deficit talk but not doing so well walking the walk – with a number of his appointed candidates running into considerable negative local reactions - from late appointments of ‘star' candidates (NHL Hall of Famer Ken Dryden the latest in a string of at least 15 Prime Ministerial over-rides of local constituency nomination efforts); that following on several nomination fiascos (e.g.: the ugly battle between Tony Valeri vs. Sheila Copps in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek in Ontario; or police consideration of local Liberal allegations of nomination fraud in Vancouver Centre – making sometime Cabinet-Minister Hedy Fry's re-election less certain in one of the most mobile constituencies in the country (over half of the voters are new since 2000 election); here Fry is facing new, energetic opposition ready to challenge an incumbent criticised for being not very visible locally at times – or embarrassingly too visible on other occasions; and a resigning local Liberal executive – along with local Liberal candidates pushed aside and crying – literally - about the democratic deficit in Burnaby-Douglas, etc)
• the public reaction to the negative Liberal ads of the (pre) campaign and how that plays out now that the rough and tumble of what could be a bitter fight is underway.

Upsides

• incumbency equalling access to the levers of state power and fudge-it budget surpluses of the earlier Martin budgets, and to D-Day and other international exposure for the sitting PM.

New Democratic Party

2004 represents the first general election test for NDP leader Jack Layton. In the year plus since his selection, Layton has both criss-crossed the country and attended post question period media scrums in the lobby of the House of Commons. The approach has borne some fruit – with new candidates and some high profile ex-MP’s returning to the electoral fray. For a party hoping to attain the electoral heights of the party under former leader Ed Broadbent, the latter’s return (in Ottawa vs. Oshawa) suggests more than nostalgia.

The pre-election slip of long-serving Burnaby MP Svend Robinson might have hurt the party in BC but Layton and Robinson handled the issue quickly and cleanly and Paul Martin handed the local party a gift in overturning two local candidates who had been working for many months on getting the Liberal nomination in Burnaby-Douglas. Amidst candidate tears and accusations of ignoring local democratic wishes, came the resignation of the whole local riding executive in Burnaby-Douglas; BC voters were reminded again that variations of this had happened in several other constituencies in BC’s Lower Mainland – a poor juxtaposition with Martin’s talk on “democratic deficits”. That Robinson’s 18-year constituency assistant Bill Siksay won the NDP nod in his place makes one of the closest electoral races in 2000 another horse race in 2004.

Some of the personal enmity between PM and NDP leader boiled over in week one with Layton’s charge that “Martin’ policies were responsible for deaths amongst Canada’s growing homelessness. Martin’s effort to ‘rise above’ such ad hominum comments will be juxtaposed by voters with Layton’s forthrightness in adding the homeless to the election debate and his refusal to back down. Layton gets first blood distinction for his effort.

Challenges:

Recapturing support akin to the Broadbent years – though if this were to happen together with a Bloc near-sweep in Quebec, the NDP/Bloc totals could mirror the 100-odd seats in play for each of the other two main parties – meaning a “three”-way race possibility.

Upsides:

Growth potential – with an early/continuing trend line for the Liberals which suggests potential difficulties for the natural governing party.

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