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Patrick Smith - Week Three Grades

Political Parties

Bloc Quebecois

Gilles Duceppe seemed to have less profile in western Canada in week three. That is not surprising as he continues to run from the front of the electoral pack in Quebec – going from event to event without major confrontations with opponents. That will end with June 14-15 leader debates.

Challenges:

• actually figuring out what possible minority situations offer in terms of Bloc benefits and then selling that to his own supporters. The Bloc/Tory alliance still seems a stretch in more ways than logic

Upsides:

• that continuing plurality electoral system bounce for concentrating party support in one region has the Bloc at 55-60 of Quebec ’s 75 seats making Duceppe a likely king-maker by “Canada Day”.
• The softness of Liberal support showing no signs of hardening in ‘central Canada ’

Conservative Party

So far, three factors have helped the new Conservatives hold their own and show growth potential:

1. a tightly scripted campaign for leader Stephen Harper, and little which has pushed him off script - even local Tory candidates telling all-candidate meeting questioners to ‘go back to their cages’ or party voices pushing to amend anti-hate legislation on gays and lesbians.
2. to date, a certain Teflon capacity for Stephen Harper vs an increasing chorus of Liberal policy mud-slinging, harkening back to the Reform -Alliance dark ages on social policy.
3. those darn ‘winds of change’.

Challenges:

• The early week four national leaders’ debates will be one of the last/best chances for opponents to tar Harper with the social policy neanderthal brush – certainly the Reform /Alliance part of new Conservatism’s Achilles heel. Such efforts to date have had minimal effect, but there are two weeks to go.
• whether Harper is believed when he now says he was not calling for Canadian troops in Iraq; indeed, whether he (and his new party) is believed that he/it is now more moderately Conservative generally.
• whether Harper can ‘up his game’ to Prime Ministerial level  

Upsides:

• continuing voter anger.

Liberal Party

Missing half the week of campaigning between D-Day’s 60th Anniversary in France and the G-8 Summit at Sea Island, Georgia may have actually helped Paul Martin but it was not a week that was kind for his Liberals. The tensions of running from behind in the polls seem to have taken their toll – from comments by Ontario colleagues that the party’s campaign was a mess to star candidates in BC suggesting that immigrants needed to get rid of their accents. Certainly, the bogeyman ads re: Stephen Harper will dominate much of the remaining campaign for the Liberals – but to date, little has stuck to the Tory leader.

Challenges: at campaign week thee finished:

• settling on a consistent campaign theme – is it Stephen Harper-focussed or a Martin / Liberal vision of Canada. The former seems the leading candidate.
• stopping the electoral bleeding in Ontario and Quebec – without looking too desparate.
• a still too-easy ride for Tory leader Stephen Harper, who sails along in a well- scripted boat.
• whether several days of campaign rest will help Paul Martin with ‘les debates’ at the start of week four
• why days of rest seem apt for a leader who has looked tired, even politically disoriented, while all his main opponents seem full of both piss and vinegar. 

Upsides:

• is it too early (late?) to say “Hail Mary’ pass?

New Democratic Party

The NDP in week three held their own. Business pages continued to focus on the inheritance tax proposals but local candidates reminded voters to think if they knew anyone who would be affected. The answer, when posed thus, is generally “No”.

Leader Jack Layton focused on BC, Ontario and Saskatchewan where the NDP has its better chances for growth. Whether an increasingly rabid Grit attack on the Conservatives and their leader will bring any spin-off benefits for the NDP remains open. Here Layton’s performance in the national debates of June 14-15 will make a difference. In recent BC memory, the debate performance of then-BC Liberal leader Gordon Wilson, noting the slanging between the two front-runners (as “why nothing ever gets done”) had a big impact on provincial Liberal fortunes then sitting in 3rd place. Portraying the Grits and Tories as cut from the same rightist cloth might matter in the end as long as social policy issues such as heath care continue to dominate in the voters’ minds.

Challenges:

• measuring up to the two front-runners in the national leaders’ debates
• scoring some debate points to set up the final two week sprint

Upsides:

• a steady week for the NDP at campaign mid point, and the first leader electoral ads in Chinese, both Mandarin and Cantonese will help in Canada’s major urban centres.

Other/Minor Parties: C-

Green growth and marijuana seeds for campaign/party donations could both produce sufficient crops to impact on selected seats – though Paul Martin won’t be ‘smoked’ in Simard. The NDP’s stance on marijuana legalization may help with the bud-heads. Perhaps giving out seeds would too. Getting the Greens into the leaders’ debates would seem significant to their electoral chances in 2004.

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