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Patrick Smith - Week Two Grades

Political Parties

Bloc Quebecois

Gilles Duceppe running a campaign as if he were ‘the leader’ has so far meant a relatively free ride for the Bloc. The Liberal heat will be turned up in Quebec, but billboards might not play too well, rather reminding voters (who need no reminding) of those pesky sponsorship scandals for the governing party. Whether ads suggesting a vote for the Bloc will help the Tories get elected (and with no Quebec representation in such a government) will have much impact remains an open question.

• week two (at least from far-away BC) seems to have the Bloc coasting vs. nailing their lead in the push to the polls on June 28th.

Challenges:

• selling the notion of a possible Conservative/Bloc ‘coalition’ to the Bloc’s own membership/supporters. The more natural ‘talks’ here would appear with the NDP should the latter get back to Broadbent levels of seats/support AND the Bloc crush the Liberals in Quebec. Together, best scenario outcomes could lead to 110+ seats.
• Pushing back on the ‘fear’ ads of the Liberals in Quebec.

Upsides:

• winds of change coupled with ongoing voter anger vs. the Government that electoral system bounce for concentrating party support in one region.

Conservative Party

This grade is mainly for managing to get a fairly free ride from the media during the first two weeks. That is partly a product of ‘winds of change’ thinking – though this would more usually involve a much more serious examination of Leader Stephen Harper as a now-potential Prime Minister. As this Prime Ministerial possibility continues, seeing if there is a shift toward much more scrutiny for Stephen Harper may tell in the coming weeks.

Challenges:

• the bogeymen of the past – for the right-est part of the new Conservatives and for Stephen Harper himself. Harper was certainly softer, gentler on weeks 1-2 of the campaign, but with some political scepticism – even cynicism – amongst voters, will the image of this kinder, gentler Stephen Harper ‘take’ in public perception.
• Potential losses amongst women voters who might have been considering voting Conservative over issues such as abortion will hurt as talk of Prime Minister Harper increases; more importantly, should weeks three and four turn into a campaign focussed on moral issues, the possibility of Stephen Harper and the Conservatives taking an electoral hit remains high.
• so will cozying up to Bush’s America as the US Iraq wind-down continues

Upsides:

• an electoral system that produces major gains for small additional increments nearer the top end. Should the ‘it’s time for a change’ theme continue to intrigue voters, the potential for a rout vs. minority situation is not impossible. The question remaining is “who might benefit the most from such a scenario?”.

Liberal Party

Whoever was responsible for the Liberal ads with Paul Martin all by himself at ‘the lake’ should have Donald Trump’s response – “Your Fired”. For a Prime Minister trying to improve the democratic deficit, a not-very-youthful looking Paul Martin wandering about his dacha, with no-one about, mirrored the disconnect between Martin/Liberals and the public in week two of the campaign. D-Day to end the PM’s week might compensate for a week that looked more like an electoral Dieppe, with a valiant effort shifting to disarray and retreat.

Challenges at campaign week two down to e-day:

• trying to get a campaign (back) on the tracks.
• the McGuinty factor, reminding all about promises broken and the downsides of a party/government seeking a 4th term in much less than ideal circumstances; McGuinty’s actions add to Grit troubles in its Ontario heartland
• a easy ride for Tory leader Stephen Harper in the first two weeks
• The steadily rising profile of the NDP and Jack Layton
• the smell of electoral change blood for the many disaffected
• the potential for still more “breaking” events to serve as reminders for a party hurt by ethics and accountability concerns.
• the impact of Liberal campaign shifts - such as a “Made in BC” version of the Liberal agenda at the start of week three or of distinct Liberal ads for Quebec warning a Bloc vote will help the Tories.

Upsides:

• Maybe having the Prime Minister on Juno Beach AND on Sea Island, south of Savannah, Georgia for the G-8 instead of on the campaign trail will help
• the apparent continuing support for Grits in Atlantic Canada (though increasingly not anywhere else). The Atlantic region’s 32 seats won’t be enough to stem the haemorrhaging of Liberal voters in Quebec, Ontario or the West.

New Democratic Party

2004 represents the first general election test for NDP leader Jack Layton. In the year plus since his selection, Layton has both criss-crossed the country and attended post question period media scrums in the lobby of the House of Commons. The approach has borne some fruit – with new candidates and some high profile ex-MP’s returning to the electoral fray. For a party hoping to attain the electoral heights of the party under former leader Ed Broadbent, the latter’s return (in Ottawa vs. Oshawa) suggests more than nostalgia.

The pre-election slip of long-serving Burnaby MP Svend Robinson might have hurt the party in BC but Layton and Robinson handled the issue quickly and cleanly and Paul Martin handed the local party a gift in overturning two local candidates who had been working for many months on getting the Liberal nomination in Burnaby-Douglas. Amidst candidate tears and accusations of ignoring local democratic wishes, came the resignation of the whole local riding executive in Burnaby-Douglas; BC voters were reminded again that variations of this had happened in several other constituencies in BC’s Lower Mainland – a poor juxtaposition with Martin’s talk on “democratic deficits”. That Robinson’s 18-year constituency assistant Bill Siksay won the NDP nod in his place makes one of the closest electoral races in 2000 another horse race in 2004.

Some of the personal enmity between PM and NDP leader boiled over in week one with Layton’s charge that “Martin’ policies were responsible for deaths amongst Canada’s growing homelessness. Martin’s effort to ‘rise above’ such ad hominum comments will be juxtaposed by voters with Layton’s forthrightness in adding the homeless to the election debate and his refusal to back down. Layton gets first blood distinction for his effort.

Challenges:

• Recapturing support akin to the Broadbent years – though if this were to happen together with a Bloc near-sweep in Quebec, the NDP/Bloc totals could mirror the 100-odd seats in play for each of the other two main parties – meaning a “three”-way race possibility.

Upsides:

• Growth potential – with an early/continuing trend line for the Liberals which suggests potential difficulties for the natural governing party.

Other/Minor Parties: C-

Green growth and marijuana seeds for campaign/party donations could both produce sufficient crops to impact on selected seats – though Paul Martin won’t be ‘smoked’ in Simard. The NDP’s stance on marijuana legalization may help with the bud-heads. Perhaps giving out seeds would too. Getting the Greens into the leaders’ debates would seem significant to their electoral chances in 2004.

Past Political Party Grades

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