[maplesyrup]

Canada is a country of regions, with a low population and a large geography. Attempting to extrapulate seats from national polling figures can be very misleading and inaccurate.

If anyone is interested, post any regional polling here for BC, and then we can work on the seat distribution for BC here. We could do the same eventually for each region in Canada

For example, the most recent Environics Poll, which came out this week, showed the following percentages of party support for BC:

New Dem: 36%
Cons: 34%
Libs: 27%
Oth: 3%
Total: 100%

Now BC has 36 seats under redistribution so equating percentage support with seat percentages we arrive at the following breakdown for seat projections in BC.

My seat projections:

New Dem: 13 seats
Cons: 12 seats
Libs: 10 seats
Oth: 1 seat
Total: 36 seats

My specific seat projections:

Lower Mainland: 21 seats
New Dem: 7 seats
Burnaby Douglas
Burnaby New Westminster
New Westminster-Coquitlam:
Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam:
Vancouver Centre
Vancouver East
Vancouver Kingsway

Cons: 5 seats
Abbotsford:
Chilliwack - Fraser Canyon
Delta-Richmond East:
Deudney - Alouette
Langley:

Libs: 9 seats
Fleetwood-Port Kells:
Newton-North Delta:
North Vancouver:
Richmond:
South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale:
Surrey North:
Vancouver Quadra
Vancouver South
West Vancouver - Sunshine Coast:


Interior: 9 seats
Cons: 6 seats
Cariboo-Prince George:
Kelowna:
North Okanagan-Shuswap:
Okanagan-Coquihalla:
Prince George-Peace River:
Southern Interior:

New Dem: 3 seats
Kamloops-Thompson:
Kootenay-Columbia:
Skeena-Bulkley Valley:


Vancouver Island: 6 seats
New Dem: 3 seats
Nanaimo-Alberni:
Nanaimo-Cowichan:
Victoria:

Cons:1 seat
Vancouver Island North:

Libs: 1 seat
Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca:

Green: 1 seat
Saanich-Gulf Islands:

[Alliance Fanatic]

Well I think that BC will probably give a massive majority to the conservative's once again, simply due to the fact that most liberal and NDP support is in the lower mainland and that is about it. Vote splitting on the left may also occur between the liberals, new democrats, and green party, allowing conservative to get a large number of seats.

[August1991]

MS, your seat prediction makes no sense here.

AF, can you give us some numbers?

[willy]

I have seen some BC polls done in the last week. They are showing a high number of undecided.

No one will be able to predict BC.

[maplesyrup]

August1991, on May 29 2004, 07:22 PM, said:

MS, your seat prediction makes no sense here.

AF, can you give us some numbers?

Could you be specific or is it that you just don't like the results?

[maplesyrup]

bump

[maplesyrup]

Alliance Fanatic, on May 29 2004, 06:47 PM, said:

Well I think that BC will probably give a massive majority to the conservative's once again, simply due to the fact that most liberal and NDP support is in the lower mainland and that is about it. Vote splitting on the left may also occur between the liberals, new democrats, and green party, allowing conservative to get a large number of seats.

A few fallacies or myths that need to be cleared up about the Green party.

It is comprised of a mixed bag politically.

The heirachy both federally and provincally are right wing. The federal leader is an ex-Tory, a right winger.

There are right wingers involved with the Greens, as well as Liberals and New Democrats (maybe 50-50, right wing, left wing). It is a bit confusing, I know.

Historically on election day, the Green party support collapses to around 1-2%.

[Kliege]

It really is silly to have ridings like North Vancouver, West Vancouver - Sunshine Coast, South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale or any of the surry ridings going to the Liberals. The truth is that the Liberals are in free fall in British Columbia just like they are in Quebec and Ontario. They will be lucky to hold on to the seat they have now, they ways things have been going for them.

The race in British Columbia will be between the NDP and CPC, with the CPC taken all of the ridings outside the vancouver and the suberbs of Vancouver.

In Vancouver and Vancouver Island I expect the NDP to pick up seats. Thats is the reality of this election in British Columbia

[Slavik44]

in the vancouver sun today, an article put the conservatives at 20 seats in B.C can't remember the rest, sorry. But really predicting B.C is a crap shoot....there are liek 3 places you can predict fairly acuratley right now, Alberta, Quebec, and Atlantic canada. The praries are starting to shape up, but things keep changing in B.C and Ontario.

[Slavik44]

here is the link,

http://www.canada.co...66-4d396b824bce

[maplesyrup]

First of all, can we dispense with a few election myths surrounding what the current polling results are showing for BC, and deal in the facts from Elections Canada:

Latest Environics (May 26/04) Regional Polling for BC
New Dem: 36%, up 24.7%
Cons: 34%, down 22.7%
Libs: 27%, down 0.7%
Oth: 3%


2000 Election Results for BC - Popular Vote
Cons 56.7%
Libs 27.7%
New Dem 11.3%
Grn 2.1%

1997 Election Results for BC - Popular Vote
Cons 49.3%
Libs 28.8%
New Dem 18.2%
Grn 2%

Now the key question is how will these significant changes impact on seat totals?

[maplesyrup]

These polling results since the last election show:

1 Green Party does not appear to be a factor
2 Conservatives have dropped substantially
3 Liberals have not moved
4 New Dem have risen substantially.

Times have changed in Canada, and BC as well.

This is not 2000.

We have a very unpopular right wing premier and government in power in BC as well.

The federal election may well not be decided until it gets to BC on election night.

[maplesyrup]

Ipsos-Reid; May 31, 2004 / May 22, 2004

BRITISH COLUMBIA
Cons: 39%, up 8% / 31% (flat)
Libs: 34%, up 6% / 28% (down 5%)
New Dem: 14%, down 6% / 20%
Grn: ?
Oth: ?
Undecided & Not Voting: ?

[maplesyrup]

At first I couldn't understand why the Liberals had decided, starting today, to run ads specifically targeting the NDP in BC.

With the release of the latest SES polling results today, showing the growth in national support for both the NDP, up 4%, and the New Democrat Leader Jack Layton, up 4%, and also showing Conservatives and the NDP in a dead heat nationally, Cons 25%, New Dems 22%, within the margin of error, I now understand.

SES are supposed to release regional polls sometime today.

[maplesyrup]

SES CPAC poll released June 1, 2004

British Columbia
Libs: 34%
Cons: 29%
New Dem: 29%
Grn: 8%