[Newfie Canadian]

Well?

Background:
2004 Election Results

Soem explanation of candidates in this article

[bigdude]

My forecast is that the Liberals will win however their percentage of the vote will drop, while the NDP percentage will rise.

[fellowtraveller]

Prediction: another vote for patronage, regionalism and institutional corruption.
The usual.

[Shakeyhands]

fellowtraveller, on May 23 2005, 05:40 PM, said:

Prediction: another vote for patronage, regionalism and institutional corruption.
The usual.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yea!!!!

[Newfie Canadian]

It's hard to say.
Both Letto and Russell are well known.
From what I've heard in the local media and phone in shows, 5 Wing could be the deciding factor, and a lot of people feel that the Liberals have dropped the ball on the base (as they have with the military in general.
I wouldn't be shocked to see the CPC pull it off.

[Bakunin]

If the conservative win, they could finally overthrow the government

You guys realize how sad is politics these days when the government have to count on a labrador riding to stay to power... I wonder how much the liberal are willing to pay the labradorian with our money to stay in power 1 billion ? 2 billions ? how much you guys predict ?

[bigdude]

Quebeckers know all about that, don't they?

[Rovik]

Newfie Canadian, on May 23 2005, 09:34 PM, said:

It's hard to say.
Both Letto and Russell are well known.
From what I've heard in the local media and phone in shows, 5 Wing could be the deciding factor, and a lot of people feel that the Liberals have dropped the ball on the base (as they have with the military in general.
I wouldn't be shocked to see the CPC pull it off.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Liberals will win (and I'm not a Liberal supporter by the way.)

The 5 Wing Base in the Goose Bay area may swing some votes to the Conservatives, but only in the Goose Bay area. There will still be a few Liberal votes in this area with some votes from NDP diehards.

In Labrador West (Labardor City and Wabush), where Graham Letto the Conservative is from is a union town with a popular NDP MHA in Randy Collins. Most of the NDP votes will come from here and the NDP candidate is from Lab West as well. Independent Ern Condon will get a few votes as well, from the same people who voted for The Labrador Party in the last provincial election. The Conservatives will get votes here as well as the Liberals. Remember, 5 Wing has no significance here so it won't impact on the Liberals as much. Yes, there will be some turned from the Liberals because of the scandal and the fact that Russell is not from this area (while the NDP and Conservative candidates are) may hurt slightly.

On the coast, both North and the Staits, the Liberals will rule especially in the areas with strong Metis populations and the Innu and Inuits will vote Liberal for many fear they would be in less position of power if the Conservatives ever get in. And as in Labrador West, 5 Wing is not a factor.


Prediction:

Labrador West: Conservatives, Liberals and NDP will split the vote with some going to the independent candidate.

Central (Goose Bay area): Could be close between the Liberals and Conservatives depending on the anger at the Liberals due to the base. NDP will be less of a factor here.

Coast: Overwhelmingly Liberal and this is where they will win the by-election overall. The Conservatives and the NDP will hardly be a factor.

Overall: Liberals will win
Conservatives 2nd
NDP 3rd
Independent (Ern Condon) 4th
Green 5th (not a factor, candidate is not even from Labrador)

[Newfie Canadian]

I don't know Rovik.
Besides 5 Wing, there is some dissatisfaction with the Liberals from the fishery (although Taylor is taking some of the heat off lately), to cuts in the Coast Guard, to marine and land based transportation (ferry service and the TLH).
I'm not saying that Labrador isn't Liberal country, what I'm saying is more indicative of a government that has been in power a long time, which is bound to rub some people the wrong way eventually.

In regards to Lab West and Randy Collins, we've seen time and again that provincal political reality doesn't always translate into federal politics. Add to that, the apparent lack of interest on the part of Layton in campaigning in the riding a la the Liberals and CPC, and the NDP may not show as well as you might think. (I'm basing this on lack of media coverage, so if I'm wrong about it, sorry).

The aboriginal issues are compelling. Here you have the well documented troubles with Davis Inlet/Natuashish, which at times have been blamed on a lack of action from Ottawa (they throw money at the problem without a plan).

[bigdude]

Speaking of media coverage does anyone have links to newspapers in the riding?

I tried one link I found to an Aurora newspaper however the link is broken.

[ScottBrison]

The Liberals will win this by at least 20%