[wulf42]

Calling an $300 millon dollar election now when Canada is still in recession is not sitting well with Canadians, looks like its going to be bye bye Iggy! Harper will get his majority this time there is simply no alternative! The Conservatives are already in the lead!!

http://www.canada.co...3723/story.html

http://www.calgaryhe...1976/story.html

This post has been edited by wulf42: 10 September 2009 - 01:31 AM

[Wild Bill]

wulf42, on Sep 10 2009, 04:45 AM, said:

Calling an $300 millon dollar election now when Canada is still in recession is not sitting well with Canadians, looks like its going to be bye bye Iggy! Harper will get his majority this time there is simply no alternative! The Conservatives are already in the lead!!

http://www.canada.co...3723/story.html

http://www.calgaryhe...1976/story.html

That poll is kinda old! It comes from back in August. It might be more interesting to see a recent poll to see any trend.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

I will give Iggy this, at least he has a positive view of the future. At least he has some vision of where he wants to see the nation going by means of a charted pathway to prosperity. Iggy is looking beyond the short term problems we have in his position, perhaps the only candidate to do so.

[Wild Bill]

Wild Bill, on Sep 10 2009, 07:26 AM, said:

That poll is kinda old! It comes from back in August. It might be more interesting to see a recent poll to see any trend.

This is a good site if you want to see what's relatively current:

http://www.nanosresearch.com/main.asp

I guess the trend for the Liberals is not positive. Still, the undecided numbers are way up. Perhaps Ignatieff believes he can persuade a good portion of them to his side.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

The important numbers are from Ontario and Quebec. Harper can't afford to lose seats in either place, and the polls suggest that is what is going to happen.

[Wild Bill]

Jerry J. Fortin, on Sep 10 2009, 09:20 AM, said:

The important numbers are from Ontario and Quebec. Harper can't afford to lose seats in either place, and the polls suggest that is what is going to happen.

You should've poked around the Nanos site:

http://www.nanosrese...T-S09-T385E.pdf

The Tories are up 6 points in Quebec as of Sept 02. In fact, they are up everywhere in Canada!

It's the Greens and the NDP who have taken the hit. The Liberals have pretty well stayed the same.

[Argus]

Wild Bill, on Sep 10 2009, 09:37 AM, said:

You should've poked around the Nanos site:

http://www.nanosrese...T-S09-T385E.pdf

The Tories are up 6 points in Quebec as of Sept 02. In fact, they are up everywhere in Canada!

It's the Greens and the NDP who have taken the hit. The Liberals have pretty well stayed the same.

If the NDP take a big hit in Ontario that will cost the Tories a lot. They depend on the NDP and Liberals splitting the vote in a lot of seats where they come out ahead.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

Argus, on Sep 10 2009, 07:42 AM, said:

If the NDP take a big hit in Ontario that will cost the Tories a lot. They depend on the NDP and Liberals splitting the vote in a lot of seats where they come out ahead.

I agree. The fact is that the Liberals are ahead of the Conservatives in both provinces.

[Wild Bill]

Jerry J. Fortin, on Sep 10 2009, 09:47 AM, said:

I agree. The fact is that the Liberals are ahead of the Conservatives in both provinces.

Ah, but you have to consider the trend between the trend between the old poll of the OP and the newest from Nanos. Also, the lead you mention in Ontario is trivial, within the margin of error. The lead in Quebec has been cut.

This Sept 02 poll is the first from summer's end. It's still early. We should find the next polls even more interesting.

This post has been edited by Wild Bill: 10 September 2009 - 06:34 AM

[Jerry J. Fortin]

Interesting sure, but definitive not. There is only one poll that counts, the general election. Who knows what the future will bring? The twists and turns have not yet begun. There will be attacks and visions for the public to digest before long. At this point it is a little early to be picking a winner, but the one thing that is sure is that the public will get an earfull very soon.

[myata]

Wild Bill, on Sep 10 2009, 07:16 AM, said:

This is a good site if you want to see what's relatively current:

http://www.nanosresearch.com/main.asp

I guess the trend for the Liberals is not positive. Still, the undecided numbers are way up. Perhaps Ignatieff believes he can persuade a good portion of them to his side.

CBC news this morning mentined results of 75% respondents against the election. I haven't noticed which poll it has been, but it should be on their site somewhere.

It appears that Iggy finally got himself into a tight spot. Both other opposition parties now decided to vote against the government, and if Iggy bows out at the last moment, it would look really funny. On the other hand, if he decides to press on with the unwanted election, he could take a lot of negative sentiment. I'm not sure which one would be better now, but I have a hunch that long term fortunes of Liberals could benefit more from developing a clear, principled and distinct position more than off a rush election with "I look different" as the only rationale.

[punked]

Jerry J. Fortin, on Sep 10 2009, 07:20 AM, said:

The important numbers are from Ontario and Quebec. Harper can't afford to lose seats in either place, and the polls suggest that is what is going to happen.

That isn't what the new EKOS numbers Suggest Jerry. Bloc is at 40% to the Liberals 28% with the Liberal numbers dropping in Ontario the Torries have opened up the lead again.

http://www.ekos.com/...-2009-09-10.pdf

This post has been edited by punked: 10 September 2009 - 07:29 AM

[Jerry J. Fortin]

Those are the areas to watch, there is just no doubt of it. We need to keep in mind that the breakdown of support is lacking in the published stats. They don't tell you where the respondents are from and it is important to understand that fact. Rural Ontario tends to vote Conservative and urban tends to vote Liberal. The south tends to go Liberal and the north tends to go Conservative. The same kind of thing applies in Quebec, where their demographics tend to swing toward English votes splitting between Liberals and Conservative and the French going the way of the Bloc with the area around Montreal being considered urban and Liberal/Conservative to a great degree.

So the statistics are swung by where folks respond from even within the provinces that are being polled. These things are known issues with statistics and they need to be taken with a lot of salt.

[Topaz]

wulf42, on Sep 10 2009, 01:45 AM, said:

Calling an $300 millon dollar election now when Canada is still in recession is not sitting well with Canadians, looks like its going to be bye bye Iggy! Harper will get his majority this time there is simply no alternative! The Conservatives are already in the lead!!

http://www.canada.co...3723/story.html

http://www.calgaryhe...1976/story.html

I think Harper should have gotten a majority by now,after all, its the former PC and alliance supporters voting, how can one lose with two different party members voting???

[punked]

Jerry J. Fortin, on Sep 10 2009, 08:53 AM, said:

Those are the areas to watch, there is just no doubt of it. We need to keep in mind that the breakdown of support is lacking in the published stats. They don't tell you where the respondents are from and it is important to understand that fact. Rural Ontario tends to vote Conservative and urban tends to vote Liberal. The south tends to go Liberal and the north tends to go Conservative. The same kind of thing applies in Quebec, where their demographics tend to swing toward English votes splitting between Liberals and Conservative and the French going the way of the Bloc with the area around Montreal being considered urban and Liberal/Conservative to a great degree.

So the statistics are swung by where folks respond from even within the provinces that are being polled. These things are known issues with statistics and they need to be taken with a lot of salt.

Nope the Bloc has opened up a lead in Montreal too Jerry. That is from the HD poll.