[Keepitsimple]

It's happening right before our eyes........don't count on an election anytime soon.

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Michael Bliss

From Friday's Globe and Mail
Last updated on Friday, Oct. 02, 2009 08:49AM EDT


In this autumn of our usual discontent with politics and politicians, we do not seem to be noticing that the balance between Canada's major parties is at or very near a historic tipping point. Stephen Harper's Conservatives have seized the central ground of the political spectrum and are poised to become the country's natural governing party. The Liberal Party is floundering in uncertainty and disunity, unsure of what it stands for and badly led. We appear to be on the verge of the great historic shift in party fortunes that Conservatives have hoped for, but have regularly failed to achieve, for more than a century.

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Sooner or later, the contempt that many in our chattering classes still seem to feel for the Conservatives in general and Mr. Harper in particular is going to begin to give way to the realization that he is on the verge of becoming the next Mackenzie King. Neither colourful nor lovable, Mr. Harper is emerging as a master strategist. He learns from his mistakes and is growing on Canadians as Prime Minister. King was widely dismissed as an unattractive lightweight in 1921, when he became the leader of a minority government. For the next five years, he held his party and government together, navigated through a series of political crises and, in 1926, emerged with a majority, launching him (still colourless and unloved) as the dominant figure on our political stage for the next quarter of a century. His brilliant, witty, learned opponent, Arthur Meighen, was consigned to the dustbin of history, where he wrote memoirs insisting that he had always been right.

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The dim prospects for the opposition parties suggest that we will not have an election for at least another year, possibly much longer. Given their weakness, national opinion and the constant readiness of the Conservatives' electoral organization, Mr. Harper's government can get on with the job almost as though it had a majority. Unless something quite unexpected occurs, the Conservatives' virtual majority will become a real one whenever the next election is held and a new template will be in place for the foreseeable political future.

Link: http://www.theglobea...article1308821/

[jdobbin]

Keepitsimple, on Oct 2 2009, 10:47 AM, said:

It's happening right before our eyes........don't count on an election anytime soon.

This is the big stopper.

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Unless something unexpected happens.

In a minority government, you can get caught with your pants down for a short time that can prove deadly.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

I would bet on a surprise!

[Michael Hardner]

If I were Harper, I would wait awhile longer. There's no reason to think that the Liberal fortunes will reverse. We're looking to come out of recession soon, and if that happens, I believe the Conservatives will be rewarded at the polls.

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Stephen Harper's Conservatives have seized the central ground of the political spectrum and are poised to become the country's natural governing party.

This is an overstatement. A single majority win doesn't change 142 years of history.

[daniel]

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Stephen Harper's Conservatives have seized the central ground of the political spectrum ...

Until they get their majority. Then it's Reform-Party all the way.

[Hydraboss]

daniel, on Oct 2 2009, 12:15 PM, said:

Until they get their majority. Then it's Reform-Party all the way.

Not even a little likely (but we can hope).

[waldo]

Keepitsimple, on Oct 2 2009, 08:47 AM, said:

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Mr. Harper is emerging as a master strategist. He learns from his mistakes and is growing on Canadians as Prime Minister.

master strategist?

rather... the real Harper hasn't changed his spots... and never will

[Topaz]

Harper has said in the past that he believes in a strong military, there goes more of our tax dollars, provincial rights, free markets, I guess that means more Canadians losing jobs, privatization of services, which could see HMO's or US-style healthcare and more expenses for Canadians, and LESS GOVERNMENT, Harper has the largest government ever, more than Mulroney. Harper has had support from two parties, the Alliance and the Conservatives and still THEY haven't given them a majority government, so why would other voters do it?

[Moonbox]

Topaz, on Oct 2 2009, 01:32 PM, said:

Harper has the largest government ever, more than Mulroney.

It's pretty logical that governments should grow as they move on. I won't say Harper's not a big spender, but the only exception of big spending we've seen in 40 years is Jean Chretien, and all he did was pass the buck to the provinces.

Trudeau was by FAR the worst and most excessive spending PM.

[jdobbin]

Moonbox, on Oct 2 2009, 03:07 PM, said:

It's pretty logical that governments should grow as they move on. I won't say Harper's not a big spender, but the only exception of big spending we've seen in 40 years is Jean Chretien, and all he did was pass the buck to the provinces.

Who in turn could be said to have increased the expense the Feds took on by covering more and more areas in health and services.

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Trudeau was by FAR the worst and most excessive spending PM.

No disagreement. However, it isn't like the PCs were not doing the same thing on the provincial front.

This post has been edited by jdobbin: 02 October 2009 - 12:57 PM

[Mr.Canada]

The longer we don't have an election the lower the Liberals numbers are going to drop. The Liberals numbers have been dropping ever since the Parliament resumed after the summer break.

Ignatieff was letting Canadians a chance to get to know him and see him for what he really is and Canadians don't like it at all. The numbers prove that. The Liberals are almost as low as they were with Dion.

Sadly, the Liberals have traded in Dion for Turner here and the Tories will have their majority in the next election. I have no doubt.

The Liberal numbers are dropping in Ontario and in Quebec at the same time, this isn't good at all. The Tories have been running ahead of the Liberals or just slightly lower then them in Toronto and are leading the Liberals by 8 or 9 points in Ontario as a whole.

Canadians are tired of the Liberal arrogance and their entitlements that they seem to think they're entitled to. Ignatieff who comes off as extremely arrogant only perpetuates this. This with a dose of vicious in fighting and disorganization that is starting to spill into the public spells out the Liberal doom.

The Tories have claimed the centre pushing the Liberals even more to the left but they're too disorganized to see what's going on. Nobody knows what the Liberal brand stands for anymore not even the party itself. Ignatieff was branded by many as the second coming and the savior of the Liberal party when he could very well turn out to be the worst leader they've ever had.

[Smallc]

daniel, on Oct 2 2009, 01:15 PM, said:

Until they get their majority. Then it's Reform-Party all the way.

I actually don't think so. They'd never be let in again if they did. It would be far more subtle.

[Mr.Canada]

Smallc, on Oct 2 2009, 11:34 PM, said:

I actually don't think so. They'd never be let in again if they did. It would be far more subtle.

Smallc, what's going on? You seem much more reasonable nowadays...

[Smallc]

I've always tried to be reasonable. It's simply that my reasoning is more in line with what you like at the moment. Don't think that I was praising the conservatives either. My point was that they would do things in a way that would be less noticeable than that of Reform, because if they tried to be reform they'd have a rebellion.

I don't necessarily like them, but at the time I don't see anyone else who could manage the country...despite my many objections over the way some things have been handled.

[capricorn]

Smallc, on Oct 2 2009, 11:59 PM, said:

I don't necessarily like them, but at the time I don't see anyone else who could manage the country...despite my many objections over the way some things have been handled.

Hey, smallc, there are things the Conservatives are doing I disagree with. For example, the stimulus package in my view is over the top. But I'm convinced the Liberals would have done the same and maybe spent more than the Conservatives, if that's even possible. I'm at the point, show me how you would do things differently but I'm not getting anything tangible from the Liberals. All I'm getting is outrage at Olympic logos, communion wafers in pockets and nitpicking over who has the most shovels in the ground.