[Michael Hardner]

I'm curious as to what people think the new party will poll in the next election, and how many seats they will win.

I'll guess 20% and 90 seats to start off.

Anyone else ? Guess carefully now...

[Galahad]

Michael Hardner, on Dec 5 2003, 06:35 PM, said:

I'm curious as to what people think the new party will poll in the next election, and how many seats they will win.

I'll guess 20% and 90 seats to start off.

Anyone else ? Guess carefully now...

Even without the leader in place, I can practically guarantee that it will be OVER 20% & OVER 90 seats.

Once the leader is chosen, or even before, if I think that there happens to be a real shoe-in in the wings, I will make a precise prediction.

[Michael Hardner]

Quote

Once the leader is chosen, or even before, if I think that there happens to be a real shoe-in in the wings, I will make a precise prediction.

You don't think Harper is a shoo-in ?

[Gugsy]

I'll go out on the wing here...

37% support, 140 seats (minority gov't).

[dnsfurlan]

Too soon to tell.

Way too many variables left open six months before an election. And there may even be some pressure on Martin not to call one in the name of democratic spirit - give the new party a chance to get its feet on the ground.

Will the new party be organized in time? Will the new leader and the new message be crafted well enough to attract enough voters from coast to coast to coast? Will Paul Martin stumble? Will Jack Layton stumble? Will external events spin the dynamics in a way yet unforseen?

Personally, and I know I'm biased, I'd like to see a number of these factors go our way. Harper is a smart guy capable of smart policies. Paul Martin looks like a John Turner waiting to happen all over again. Jack Layton looks like a Jack Layton waiting to happen all over the place. The new Conservative Party could deliver a message Canadians have been waiting for for a long time - esp. restoring some pride in our country once again.

Hey, if these kinds of things can happen, and Harper is known for his organizatianal ability, I'm not going to rule out a minority Conservative government - 75 seats in the West, 35 seats in Ontario, 15 seats out East, 5 in Quebec (depending on what happens with the BQ).

[Slavik44]

well lets see...
east of quebec...maybe 10 seats
Quebec maybe 2 seats
Ontario lets say 10 seats
manitoba maybe 4 seats
Saskatchewan maybe 7 seats
Alberta Maybe 26 seats (yes a total wash out)
B.C 20 Seats
Territories 0 seats
--------------------------------------
so that would be about 79 seats, i say its realistic enough

[Goldie]

Conservatives 30.3% = 76 seats

[Mr. Chater]

Gugsy, on Dec 5 2003, 10:37 PM, said:

I'll go out on the wing here...

37% support, 140 seats (minority gov't).

even that would be an amazing start for the New Conservative Party. To be able to get rid of the Liberal Era and bring us to a New Conservative time is a big change. Espicially if it is a new party just formed before the election. A minority government would be a big step for Canada, and it is about time.

[Neal.F.]

Paulie Waulie has nowhere to go but down. He has been put so high on a pedestal that when he falls, he will fall hard. Expectations are through the roof since he has promised to be everything to everyone.

That is why he will call his election early. before people see its just a new driver in the getaway car.

Organizationally Team Martin (not the Libeeral party. Martin has been running a party within a party for years.) is rock solid all the way through to sask and Alberta, where it is weakest, and in BC where he has made gains for the party.

For the conservatives, the CA has a powerful machine on the ground from BC to the Ontario border, while the Progressive Conservatives are still capable of waging effective war in the 4 eastern provinces. Onatrio is where consolidation will have to be effected most quickly. The newly merged Riding associations need to elect their new executive in december, and immediately open nominations, so that an esprit de corps, and the creation of something both groups can call their own that they created together can be ready to seriously contest at least 85 of the 103-108 seats there will be.
In Quebec, both parties are a shambles. They will have to get their respective associations together quickly too, though in many cases they could merge and still have trouble filling a public lavatory.
This is where the crumbling Bloc comes in. One Bloquiste jumped ship and joined Martin's gang last week (Jacques Lanctot - Chateauguay) while it is rumoured that former Tory Pierrette Venne (St. Hubert) may be joining the Conservatives. The Bloc has lost seven MPs over the last year, and it may crumble further. What this means is that the hardcore separatists will likely stay at home should it appear the Bloc is destined for oblivion, while others who voted for them so they would not have to vote Liberal may potentially be interested in having a look at the new Conservative party. Some more MPs, looking to save their electoral skin may jump in any of three directions (yes even the NDP) so the potential for a few seats is there. If André Bachand sticks it out (He has been quiet lately) he could well retain his seat. For some reason I can't fathom, Pierrette Venne seems to be able to win her seat no matter what banner she flies, and there are some ridings where it could be a real horserace, subject to strong candidates being found by the CP. AT this time Martin is believed by some to be conducting a purge of anyone in the party who has shown even the slightest hesitation in terms of obsequiousness, and it is said that some MPs such as Raymonde Folco (Laval Ouest), Clifford Lincoln (Lac St Louis), Carole-Marie Allard (Laval-est), and Yolande Thibault (St. Lambert) may well be on their way out. Two of those ridings are winnable (St Lambert & LAval-est) as both only won by a handful of votes. Laval Ouest is a longshot, but doable with the right candidate. Lac St Louis, they'll vote Liberal UNLESS the candidate, was parachuted in from Vancouver and never made ana appearance in the riding as in 1984. IN that election Bob Layton (yes, the father of Jacko) won handily, and held on in 1988 by less than 700 votes. But apart from that It has been Liberal territory from time immemorial, and the new borders make it even more so.

So, I think that all going well, the conservatives can elect 25 in BC, 26 in Alberta, 6 in Sask., 5 in MB, 35-40 in Ontario, 2-7 in Quebec, and 15-18 downeast. this means, 112-127 seats, a more than healthy opposition, and possibly a hung parliament, should the Bloc hold 25, and the NDP win that many themselves.

[Craig Read]

From DNS, good quote:

Quote

Harper is a smart guy capable of smart policies. Paul Martin looks like a John Turner waiting to happen all over again. Jack Layton looks like a Jack Layton waiting to happen all over the place. The new Conservative Party could deliver a message Canadians have been waiting for for a long time - esp. restoring some pride in our country once again.

I agree DNS Harper is clearly the brightest of the bunch. However the Libs will easily win the next election:

-Corporate sponsorships and greased palms support Martin
-CBC and most of the mainstream media will support Martin
-The Libs will appeal to socialism and welfare and 'Da Cdn way' and explain to the public that Harper is the anti-christ
-Stats Can and CBC commentators will convince most Cdns that life here is better, safer, and more moral than in the savage lands of the USA and that Harper and his crew are masquerading Rush Limbaugh personalities who will eat babies if given a chance

Harper's main impact will be on what he FORCES the Liberals to do once in opposition:

-Reduce spend and taxes
-Reduce the outflow of skilled labor from this country
-Increase our military spend and security spend
-Reform health care and obliterate regional/corporate subsidy programs to pay for the military
-Parliamentary reform

The new PC/CA party needs to pick 5 or 6 ideas and ruthlessly pursue them, in the face of the babbling left's moronic posturing and howling.

This would be a great service to the country.

[Neal.F.]

Craig, If people will be stupid enough to fall for the Kinsellaesque hyperbolic smear tactics once again, then this country for which many quality individuals gave their lives, will not be worth a damn, nothing more thana whining, sneering socialist nanny-state that as far as I'm concerned will have lost its moral right to exist as a country.

"Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me"

I don't yet consiider Martin a done-deal, he has set expections so high he can't possibly satisfy anyone, let alone everyone. Unless he goes to the polls early, he stands a good chance of being defeated.


I also do not consider Harper as a shoo-in for the CP leadership. Prentice is a force to be reckoned with. He has strength in Quebec, and under the voting suystem, as I understand it, small quebec associations will have the same clout as big Alberta ones. Prentice is also popular in Alberta and BC.
Then there's Chuck Strahl. I don't think he'll be too popular among PCs, but he does ahve a strong and forceful no-nonsense style presence, and may be what is needed to go up against martin.
IT's just beginning, and hopefully it will be a real contest and not a coronation. That's the last thing the new party needs.

[Craig Read]

Harper should win and let's hope he does. He is the brightest and the best qualified and commands increasing respect in the media. The 'CA' must control the fiscal agenda of the new party.

Joe Clark and his cohorts moved the PCs far to the left and they have no credibility on fiscal affairs and no economic vision.

Joe Clark is in short - an unmitigated failure and disgrace. Mackay is an unknown and as evidenced by his decision to do a deal with that moron Orchard, not a man that is a heavy or deep thinker, or one that abides by principle.

The Tories can aid in modifying the social conservatism and repackaging it to appear to be at least 'neutral' for Eastern voters.

Combined the new entity if it hammers 5 or 6 key and large themes, and stays consistent [unlike the old Tories and blow with the wind Joe Clark], should have a good chance at forming a reputable and respected opposition with real power.

[Neal.F.]

I wouild agree with your assesment of MacKay's chances... he doomed himself with that piece of Orchardite paper. I hope he stays with the party, and he should be rewarded for the sacrifice he made, but think of what kind of field day Kinsella and the smear squad would have.....

Harper would be a good choice, but I think a coronation would be a disaster. What is needed is a exciting, hotly contested leadership race, which will for 5 weeks or so, rip the attention away from Paulie Waulie who has dominated the media which hangs on every word his spokespeople utter on his behalf.
If there's a race, Harper will have an ooportunity to show himself in good stead, or make a horse's ass of himself. If he does the former, the spring election could be a real contest, or even be postponed, which will be to Martin's disadvantage.
However, if it appears to be a coronation, the old , prejudiced view of Harper will prevail, and be used constantly against him by Warren's Warriors.

[Boydfish]

I seriously doubt that BC will return more than two Liberals to Ottawa. The Canadian Liberals are not that popular in BC(It's important to remember that most Canadian polls are wildly inaccurate in BC, as they use Canadian poltical terminology rather than British Columbian when doing their polling. A Liberal in BC is a strong right winger, while the reverse is true in Canada.).

The only advantage that Liberals have in BC is that Canadian politics are at best viewed with a yawn by British Columbians: Our votes don't count in your elections.

The biggest question will be if the CPC and in a larger extention, Canadians in general, grasp that the western provinces will give them one shot: If they pander to the Canadian agenda and ignore Alberta and BC, we'll simply withdraw from your confederation.

This election will probably be the last election in the confederation, as Martin will simply wave the "My God! A Western PM might be elected! It's better to have the worst Canadian than the best British Columbian!" flag at Ontario and Quebec and he'll win. Doubt it? Worked for Cretin, didn't it?

[Morgan]

I'll be optimistic like Neal and go with 115-125 seats for the conservatives.

But to accomplish this number of wins, I think the movers and shakers in the CA/PC conservatives , need to start drawing up plans now about how to fight Kinsella-like in the federal election. Conservatives need to develop a strategy to present their strengths, protect their weaknesses, and attack the weaknesses of the LPOC/NDP.

Clearly Harper is the smartest guy of the lot-I'm not saying he'll win the leadership, but I'm saying if the merged PC/alliance has him or someone like him at the helm, leadership would be a strength, so the back room boys don't have to worry about that aspect of the election campaign. Whereas I think Paul is a weakness to the LPOC -too much skullduggery in his past and issue flip flopping. Layton is personable enough but IMHO he has a bit too much of a slick used car salesman aura. Layton is a neutral to the NDP.

So like Craig said elsewhere I think the conservatives need to focus on platforms [with answers not just attacks against LPOC], getting party members to agree to disciplined unified responses to iparty platform issues, undermining the image of opposing parties by painting NDP/LPOC as one choice not 2 separate parties thereby repelling social moderates and fiscal conservatives from the LPOC, and good pre-election publicity for the conservative party's goals and promises.Hire the best commercial PR agency they can afford.

a. Platforms-if the conservatives keep their ideas limited in number and simply stated -these are only examples:

-health care reform starting with more provincial independence on how federal funding is used provided all provinces allow for "access" to universal health care as one of the choices
- military reform with a better budget based on other Nato countries' average per capita support and increase of military salaries/benefits based on comps from other Nato countries
-immigration reform with a revision of annual quotas so they reflect what other G8 countries take in per year on a per capita basis and a creation of sub class of priority immigration candidates within "business class" of immigrants who are credentialed/experienced and commit themselves to serve in the Cdn. military for 5 years
- public referendum on the issue of same sex marriage followed by a constitutional amendment if needed based on the results of the referendum
- intellectual freedom/free choice - bring up reform in CRTC committee's and side with cable companies[become allies with them] saying that since 65% of citizens have spoken in a recent poll that they want more choice and not be forced to act criminally with dishes to get their choice you'll fight against current staist control of television/radio and furthermore commit the party to fight against UN's plan to control the Internet, saying it's bad for intellectual freedom and bad for developed countries period.

b. Then the conservatives should look to protecting their weakness - example:same sex marriage referendum -fundies and red tories need to get on board way ahead of the election with this idea and "politic" accordingly ie. " Our party has DECIDED to let Canadians decide what's best for Canada and therefore our personal preferences are irrelevant, we have only one vote each like all Canadians and OUR PARTY is committed to ABIDING with whatever Canadians tell us they want." Period, end of story, fermez le bouche and that goes for the Larry Spencer types as well as the Scott Brison types.

c. Then work to the LPOC/NDP weakness - which is work to their similarities-paint them as being more similar than different so as to divide the vote between the Left wing voters and to attract fiscal liberals and social moderates from the LPOC.

d. Publicity-this is EXCEEDINGLY IMPORTANT-I believe the LPOC's main power is their control of the media, thus controlling the message. The conservatives need to commit a sizeable portion of their campaign budget to publicity no 2 ways about it. Conservatives need to get their message out to counter balance Pravda CBC. Conservatives need the owners of cable companies on board by courting them a.s.a.p. and promising them that the conservatives will reform CRTC and will get their digtal packages approved withing 12 months if they give conservatives as much air time as possible leading up to and after the election.

Conservatives need to meet with the Asper Family a.s.a.p. and promise them that conservatives will fight against anti-semitism in Canada with all the legal tools available and that conservatives will posture a more balanced approach to the Israel-Palestine conflict diplomatically then it is today, which is heavily weighted as pro-Palestine. Conservatives need the Aspers to counter balance the Liberal's support in the CBC, even if the Aspers, a long standing LPOC family, only promise NEUTRALITY in their Editorial viewpoints... neutral is good and far better than pro-LPOC as the Aspers have been in previous elections.

Take out full page ads with basic platform promises in the Globe and Mail , National Post and in all 10 highest circulating newspapers every weekend in the last 2 months before the election. Canadians still have one of the highest newspaper readership in the country. Use that to conservatives' advantage.

And like Boydfish says the conservatives should not take their popularity in the Western provinces for granted. They need to get them to go out and vote conservative not throw their hands up in exasperation that their votes don't count anyways blah, blah Get the west inspired that this new conservative party is re-energized and has not forgotten the West's concerns.

But I'm not as pessimistic about the breakdown of confederation in the near future as Boydfish is.