[maplesyrup]

OK, it's time to start paying attention about what's happenin' here, as there appears to be some concerns with getting this leadership project off the ground.

Prime Minister Paul Martin, in one of his end-of-the-year interviews let it slip - 4 months folks, from the time he was sworn in as PM we are going to have Canada's 38th election (99.9% for sure).

Who has definitely decided whether they are running or not running?

Who is still sitting on the fence?

What do the polling numbers say?

What are your forecasts about who is going to win?

Let's start things off with a breaking news story today from the Globe and Mail, Canada's most wide-read newspaper:

Belina Stronach mulling united-right leadership

Field widening as Strahl, Lord also urged to run

By BRIAN LAGHI
From Wednesday's Globe and Mail

OTTAWA — The race to lead Canada's new Conservative Party galloped off in all directions yesterday as auto parts magnate Belinda Stronach was touted by confidants as a possible surprise candidate and former Ontario premier Mike Harris began pushing key allies to support Bernard Lord.

In addition, Canadian Alliance MP Chuck Strahl also expressed deepening interest in the post, saying the race needs a strong slate of candidates who can unify the party. So far, only Canadian Alliance caucus leader Stephen Harper and Calgary lawyer Jim Prentice have said they would run, leaving many concerned that the race will look like an Alliance takeover should Mr. Harper win.

Sources close to Ms. Stronach, who is president of Magna International Inc., said she has not closed the door on a possible run and wants to ensure that the new party is seen in a positive light as it gets off the ground.

"She wants to see this thing succeed," the source said. "She knows it needs people who can break it out of the way people are coming to think of it."

Ms. Stronach had originally told those wooing her that she was not interested in the job, as had Mr. Lord. But the New Brunswick Premier is reconsidering, given the lack of candidates, and now Ms. Stronach is as well.

She has been a strong supporter of merging the Canadian Alliance and the Tories and acted as a facilitator over the summer in bringing together emissaries from the two parties.

Sources said yesterday that Mr. Harris urged a group of close supporters on Thursday to back Mr. Lord, who is not expected to decide until the new year whether or not he will throw his hat in the ring.

Mr. Harris, who has ruled himself out of the race, attended a corporate lunch where several members of his former team were present -- including Tom Long, Paul Rhodes and Leslie Noble, each of whom played integral roles in his ascension to the premiership. Sources said, however, that the team is divided on whom to support. Mr. Long, for example, is said to be leaning toward Mr. Harper.

The potential entrance of Ms. Stronach into the race could also complicate the situation for Mr. Harris, who is close to the Magna president.

Representatives of Magna were not available for comment yesterday.

Meanwhile, Mr. Strahl said in an interview that he has been told by a number of individuals to take the plunge.

"I am encouraged and I am being encouraged," he said.

Mr. Strahl said that the race needs a full complement of contenders to ensure a vibrant discussion.

He also said that the new leader must successfully stitch together both sides of the party.

"The person that wants to lead the party has to ensure that he brings together the old Alliance and the old Progressive Conservative Party and engage them actively," he said. "It's not going to be enough to build a team on one side."

Mr. Strahl might be able to fashion some appeal to both camps, given his leadership of a breakaway group of Alliance MPs who sat with the Tories in the latter part of 2001 and early 2002.

Others who are considering a leadership bid include Tory caucus leader Peter MacKay and Alliance MP Brian Pallister.

Some party members are concerned that Mr. Harper has not reached out fully enough so far to former Tories.

One senior Tory, who asked not to be identified, said Mr. Harper has paved the way for others to enter by not adequately touching base with the Tory crowd. The source said the winner must do everything possible to build a common front.

[Gugsy]

I think Bernard Lord will throw his hat in the ring, and I think he will win the party leadership.

Having said that, I want to see a race with many candidates. It would be great to see a Belinda Stronach, a young, bilingual woman enter the race.

The more the merrier. Lord, Harper, Prentice, Pallister, Strahl, Stronach, I hope they all enter the race.

[dnsfurlan]

Actually, I'm not as convinced as I was a few days ago that Bernard Lord will enter the race. A few members of the media have signalled that its still a longshot.

Part of the reason is that anyone who now enters will have a huge organizational and money disadvantage to Stephen Harper. Indeed, I think one of the main reasons some of the potential candidates have decided to stay out is because they know Harper is in a position where he's hard to beat.

And the fact that Lord is waiting so long to decide only means Harper gets stronger while Bernie waits and waits and waits.

Furthermore, other names are being thrown into the ring I think because there may be a realization that Lord will not run.

So, to put a good face on this run as many candidates as possible would lessen the impact of a Harper juggernaut.

I may be wrong about Lord and Harper, but at some point hard facts have to replace wishful thinking.

Whatever you might think of the relative merits of Harper and Lord as candidates, the challenge for a Lord candidacy would be considerable, only because he would have less than three months to become a viable federal challenger, then have to turn around and face Martin in a general election.

Lord's waffling on the issue of a leadership run I think has cost him a good amount of time in getting himself ready for a challenge far different from what he faces now as Premier.

Hey, it could certainly be done. Merger was done in less time than that. But the shift from where he is now to where he needs to be to take over the party reigns is something perhaps many of his admirers don't fully appreciate.

And Harper is no slouch in these things. Even if you accept that he is not popular among voters yet, winning leadership contests require a different set of skills than winning general elections. And I think Harper is primed for the task. I don't think Lord is.

But, we'll see. Lord could announce tomorrow, blow Harper out of the sky, and make me look like a buffoon. Time will tell.

[dnsfurlan]

Reiterating some of my ongoing sentiments, Walter Robinson, former head of the Canadian Taxpayer's Federation, and nominee for Conservative Party candidate in the Ottawa area, has written an article cautioning people about embracing a Bernard Lord candidacy on hype alone. Its been done before without much success.

No guarantees that Lord will be saviour

Here is an excerpt that I particulary agree with:

Quote

I must caution my fellow conservatives to sideline the hype surrounding his candidacy. Recent Canadian political history wisely instructs us that messiah-like candidates have a disastrous track record.

Back in 1983, handsome, former star cabinet minister from the 1970s and Bay Street boy John Turner was supposed to salvage the fortunes of poor polling Liberals who languished at the end of Mr. Trudeau's 16-year tenure. A year later, Brian Mulroney crushed Turner and the Liberals in the largest majority landslide in Canadian history.

In the fall of 1993, Kim Campbell was the "baby boomer, break the gender barrier, intelligent, do politics differently" candidate that would surely obliterate yesterday's man, Jean Chretien. On the morning of Oct. 26, 1993, the PC party had been reduced from 158 seats to two, and the dinosaur Chretien ruled for a decade.

Charest drafted

Or take the drafting of former PC boss Jean Charest to lead the Quebec Liberals and save Canada from Lucien Bouchard. Yes, he is now the premier, but Bouchard's PQ romped to victory in Charest's first electoral outing.

Canadian conservatives have a history of deluding themselves into thinking style and charisma are the path to power. Substance, policy vision and electoral planning are the real keys to victory ... look no further than the electoral victories of Diefenbaker in '58 or Mulroney in '84 and '88 for proof of this.

[maplesyrup]

'Early indications for Canada's new united right party not encouraging '

Thu Dec 25,11:53 AM ET

BRUCE CHEADLE

http://story.news.ya...ear_unite_right

It's probably politically incorrect to mention this, but one would think that journalists would have had something better to do on Christmas Day than write a column on politics.

[maplesyrup]

Chuck Strahl, who I believe is going to win this race, is presently in Toronto. He is assembling his team and the financing required, and will be making it official next week.

[maplesyrup]

Why Stephen Harper will never win.

There are many articles in the press today devoted to the Conservative leadership race, but Lawrence Martin of the Globe and Mail has hit the nail on the head with his column.

'The snore of '04 is what's in store'

http://www.globeandm...Story/National/

Either Stephen Harper will not win the leadership race, or if he does win the leadership race, the Conservative party is doomed.

And forget about labeling the Globe as anti Conservative, or anti business, because those kind of comments, are just as ludicous, as someone else's comments on another thread, suggesting that Canada is bordering on a totalitarian state because we have the CBC.

For example today there are at least 4 (I haven't seen all the articles yet) columns devoted to the Conservatives. The NDP would be delighted to receive that kind of publicity.

So even with all this overwhelming support from the mainstream press in Canada, the Conservative party can't get it together, and what it actually shows, is how weak this new Conservative party appeal is, for most Canadians.

Some of Lawrence Martin's more salient points include:

1 'Thanks to the inglorious retreat of Bernard Lord, the Hamlet of the Maritimes, the new Prime Minister will face the same type of debilitated opposition the old one did.'

2 'Alas, that is not what is in store. Instead, get ready for the snore of '04. More futility from the right. More public disengagement. More Liberal hegemony.'

3 'Mr. Lord's decision to once again approach the starting line for a run at national leadership, and to once again back off, has driven a dagger into the gut of the new Conservative Party.'

4 'It is a decision of dire significance. With the more moderate Mr. Lord in the Conservative race, the Progressive Conservatives would have been revitalized. His entry would have triggered a leadership fight against the old Reformers that would have attracted intense media coverage. A truly national party, with a foothold in the East, could have been fashioned.'

5 'Now the political right, while formally unified, finds itself in the same dilemma as in the decade past. With no national compromise candidate for leadership in sight, it will remain a party of regional rancour. Just what the Grits want.'

6 'Stephen Harper is competent and shrewd and well-informed, but, as demonstrated by his record since becoming Alliance leader 20 months ago, he has no voter appeal east of Moose Jaw. He is credited with spearheading the merger movement. Well, yes, but he had no choice. His Alliance Party was stationary under him.'

7 'Should he win the Conservative leadership, Canada will again have as its official opposition a branch office of the U.S. Republican Party. As Mr. Harper should know by now, Canadians don't vote Republican.'

8 'It's not to say that everything will be easy for Paul Martin. The reinvigorated NDP under Jack Layton will be a force, and Mr. Harper might be able to hide his true colours and tack to the moderate centre.'

Lawrence Martin, the author of this article today has accurately touched all the significant bases, but perhaps the most important one is Number 7.

This is Canada and we are different in a lot of ways from our American cousins, and most certainly very different when it comes to politics.

This post has been edited by maplesyrup: 08 January 2004 - 08:26 AM

[maplesyrup]

Stephen Harper accused of exploiting his position!

This is a perfect example of what's that expression: 'Plus ca change, plus ca reste la meme chose.'

So Stephen Harper is providing himself with special advantages in this race. I thought this new Conservative party is the party of principles and high morals. I don't see any diffewrence between Mr harper's bewhaviour here, and Prime Minister Martin's behaviour in refusing to suspend his party members in BC who have been raided by the RCMP. Conservatives are identical to the Liberals, and this is why Jack Layton's NDP continues to rise in the polls.

By GREG KEENAN and BRIAN LAGHI

http://www.globeandm...Story/National/

'Leadership front-runner Stephen Harper, Leader of the Alliance, faced internal criticism yesterday for not stepping down as Opposition Leader while campaigning for the job.

The criticism was over a letter that Mr. Harper's campaign team sent out to people who are members of the Alliance wing of the Conservative Party last month, seeking funds for his run.

"The fact that he is mailing these out as caucus leader and official Leader of the Opposition opens himself up — if not for real criticism — then for the perception of a problem," said Jason Hatcher, a spokesperson for candidate Jim Prentice.

Mr. Hatcher said Mr. Harper should consider giving up the Opposition Leader job now if he wants to avoid a negative perception.

One critic noted that Mr. Harper continues to issue news releases as Leader of the Official Opposition while campaigning, an advantage that other candidates don't have.

Mr. Harper will officially announce his candidacy on Monday, although he confirmed last month that he would run.

Derek Lucas, a former national councillor for the Canadian Alliance and a supporter of Mr. Strahl, said the move looks cynical to grassroots members, who are wondering whether Mr. Harper might be using his parliamentary staff to help in his campaign.

"There is a lot of concern about this," he said.'

This post has been edited by maplesyrup: 08 January 2004 - 08:25 AM

[maplesyrup]

Harper has appointed Michael Fortier, former candidate for PC leadership, as a co-chair of his campaign.

[sir_springer]

Yes, I'm deffinitely interested in Lawrence Martin's assessment of the political scene in Canada.

Why don't we just ask Paul Martin or Jean Chretien instead, same difference. All three are "Liberal" down to their toenails.

[maplesyrup]

Liberal is not a dirty word, it's just another point of view, another way of looking at the world.

Anyway here's some good news for the Conservative folks.. Belinda Stronach has decided to run, and is in process of setting up her campaign team, according to what I feel are very reliable sources. She should draw lots of support being a friend of Slick Willie. By this time next week, everyone who is going to run, will have announced their intentions. Let the games begin.

This post has been edited by maplesyrup: 09 January 2004 - 04:20 AM

[Neal.F.]

If she runs she'll learn some real lessons...If indeed the Clinton allegations are true, it won't put her in good stead with conservatives, who HATE Bill Clinton.

Remember the old Republican line "Clinton is not MY president!".

You've read that one wrong, Maplesyrup.

[Pellaken]

so where are we now?

Prentice is for sure
Clement
Strahl seem faily certain
Stronach
MacKay are still fence-sitting
and Harper of course.

any one I'm missing?

[maplesyrup]

MacKay is out, damaged goods, etc.
But big story is Liberals want Harper as leader. because they feel they will womp him

[maplesyrup]

MacKay is out, damaged goods, no money, etc.

Day is out as well.

I Harper of course, bilingual, Calgary

2 Prentice - Calgary,

3 Stronach - not bilingual, but maybe Bill Clinton (they are friends) will be her campaign mgr. There's a pic of her on cover of The Province in Vancouver today with caption 'Next Tory leader?' She's photogenic, will help to
generate publicity for the new party.

4 Clement - Ontario, bilingual , former Health Minister but lost his seat I think

5 Strahl - BC, not bilingual, working on it, DRC spokesperson

My hunch Strahl may take it even though he's not bilingual yet.

But big story is Liberals want Harper as leader, because they feel they will womp him

Stronach is the big hope of the party heirarchy (ie Bay Street), they want a new face for a new party

Also the former Alliance folks will support the leader once chosen because they will have no where else to go.

I wonder who could explain exactly how the process ito chose the leader going to work

There will be delegates chosen, the same number from each riding, so how many delegates X number of ridings

Is that it for delegates?

Voting is on March 21, but no convention, so is voting by phone or computer

so what about second ballot, etc. does the winner need to get 50% + 1 to win

This post has been edited by maplesyrup: 30 January 2004 - 01:45 PM