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TheNewTeddy

International Elections

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Elections I'll be following in this thread:

National:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_general_election,_2013 Italy - Feb 25

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Papal_conclave,_2013 Vatican - Apx March 15

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tunisian_general_election,_2013 Tunisia - June 23 (note 1)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_House_of_Councillors_election,_2013 Japan Senate - July 11

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norwegian_parliamentary_election,_2013 Norway - Sept 9

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_federal_election,_2013 Australia - Sep 14

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_federal_election,_2013 Germany - Sep 22

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bhutanese_National_Council_election,_2013 Bhutan (note 2)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libyan_Constituent_Assembly_election,_2013 Libya (note 1 & 2)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Libyan_constitutional_referendum Libya (additional, same notes apply)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Libyan_general_election Libya (same as above)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistani_general_election,_2013 Pakistan (note 3)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestinian_general_election,_2013 Palestine (note 1 & 4)

Local:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Australian_state_election,_2013 Western Australia - March 9 (Note 5)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falkland_Islands_sovereignty_referendum,_2013 Falklands Referendum - March 10 (Note 6)

Notes

1 - If remains democratic.Free and democratic election in an islamic and arab nation (rare and thus of interest)

2 - Still introducing Democracy, interesting to see how well they manage at it

3 - Nuclear armed nation with weapons pointed at other nuclear armed nation, thus, of world interest

4 - Middle eastern affairs tend to make headlines, thus, of interest

5 - Australia is the country most like ours in terms of how the government is set up; thus interesting

6 - This will be all over the news when it happens, thus of interest

Remaining countries are either large, and/or important, and/or rich, and thus of interest to world affairs, even if these nations are not frequently in the headlines.

Note I will no longer be following elections in smaller countries due to lack of interest.

CHECK BOTTOM OF PREVIOUS PAGE FOR A "POLL AVERAGE" OF PAPAL CANDIDATES

Edited by TheNewTeddy

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Thanks for putting in the work researching and reporting on these international elections and now the elections for the papacy. I don't often reply in here, but I do read the stuff that you're posting and much appreciate it. Keep up the good work, Teddy.

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Part of the problem is that it's hard for me to convince myself to gobble up all the data, then, produce a post summarizing it, when even I don't care about the election. For example there were 3 elections earlier this week and I'm only now (tabs are open behind this one) looking at the results, cause, they are in countries I am not interested in.

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The other problem too is that I am co-blogger on a blog with between 50-500 regular readers. I know that by posting there I can guarantee some hits, and this forum has a very strict policy about not posting here what I do on a blog. I thus have a choice, post here, where I get feedback from one member, and have no idea how many people actually read what I write, or, post there, while usually nobody comments, but I can visually see how many people have read it.

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Italy goes to the polls Monday. My updated projection is as follows:


ITALY - HOUSE
344 - Socialist (Majority)
123 - Conservative
84 - Populist
58 - Moderate
16 - Radical

ITALY - SENATE
145 - Socialist (Minority)
100 - Conservative
35 - Populist
30 - Moderate (Join Socialist Majority)
5 - Radical

(158 needed for majority)

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Israel may be headed back to the polls.

Lapid's party has formed an alliance with the Jewish Party (for some reason I can't comprehend) and are refusing to sit in any government that includes orthodox parties.

Likud has been able to get Livni's party on side, but so far, no progress beyond this has been made.

A new poll shows the following results should a new election be held

45 - Lapid/Jewish alliance (30 for Lapid, 15 for Jewish)

22 - Likud/Beytanu alliance (no breakdown avail)

13 - Labour

9 - Shas

7- Meretz

6 - Torrah

4 - Livni

4 - Hadash

3 - Arab List

3 - Strong Israel (???)

2 - Kadima

2 - Balad

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I think it's ok for you to post here what you've posted on your blog, as long as you're not advertising your blog by doing so. In other words, don't link to it and nobody will know. If you make posts here intended to drive traffic to your blog, that's a problem.

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No Yorkshiremen. How do they ever expect to get a decent Pope?

And no Cardinal Dolan of NYC?

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Italy:

Counting is ongoing. Notes so far:

I had estimated the populists would outperform the polls. They are, and by much more than I thought. They are currently at 25.5% behind the Conservatives at 28.3% and the Socialists at 30.4%. Monti's Moderates are at 10.5% while the Radicals appear to be far below the threshold.

The Senate however... is a total mess.

The Conservative alliance has won 123 seats to 104 for the Socialists. Monti has only 17 and the Populists have managed to take 57. Media reports are saying the Senate is "Ungovernable" (in Italian of course)

Current house:

344 - Socialist

124 - Conservative

111 - Populist

46 - Moderate

Current senate:

123 - Conservative

104 - Socialist

57 - Populist

17 - Moderate

Edited by TheNewTeddy

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Current standings are as follows:

29.5% Socialist 9,946,376 votes

29.1% Conservative 9,812,305 votes

25.5% Populist 8,591,766 votes

10.6% Moderate 3,557,436 votes

The Senate meanwhile is a mess, as province after province is as close as hell.

It is possible for the Conservatives to win the entire election at this point, despite the fact that only 1% of polls are yet to report.

cartinapop.jpg

Edited by TheNewTeddy

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Note - Party names are a mix of real official names, and my "take" on the names, plus use of "canadian" terms.


By seats:

297 - Democratic Party (Soc)

109 - 5 Star Movement (M5S)

98 - Freedom Party (Con)

39 - Civic Choice (Mod)

37 - Left-Greens (Soc)

18 - Bloc North (Con)

9 - Brothers Nationalist (Con)

8 - Centrists (Mod)

6 - Different Centrsits (Soc)

5 - German Tyrolean Party (Soc)

2 - Italians living in South America Party (n/a)


345 - Soc

125 - Con

109 - M5S

47 - Mod

2 - Other



By votes (top few):

8,689,168 - 5 Star

8,644,187 - Socialist

7,332,667 - Freedom

2,824,001 - Civic Choice

1,390,156 - Bloc North

1,089,442 - Left-Greens




Senate (By Seats)

114 - Democratic Party

8 - Left-Greens

1 - uh? Some guy?

123 - Socialist Total


99 - Freedom Party

17 - Bloc North

1 - Bloc South

117 - Conservative Total


54 - 5 Star Populists


19 - Moderates


1 - Italians living in South America Party

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Elections, of all sorts, coming up in march (and projections)

9th, Western Australia (Liberal Majority)

9th: Saskatchewan NDP Leadership (Meilli)

11th, Falklands Referendum (Anti-Argentine)

15th: Vatican (Tagle) [may take many days or weeks]

17th: Quebec Liberal Leadership (Couillard)

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The result in Italy was a stalemate, but don't worry, Berlusconi is not gonna get back in. If not for anything else, then given the dire situation of the country's economy and the word from Angela Merkel that she doesn't want to see Berlusconi ever again, that should do it.

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Western Australia has voted, and the results are out.

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/wa/2013/

Looks like the Liberals took 33 seats, while Labour took 19, and National took 7

The National Party is a right-wing conservative party that *normally* is in auto-coalition with the Liberals. In Western Australia, however, this is not the case, and you can expect the party to refuse to be a part of the new government. The Liberals, though, have won a majority of their own, and won't need National support.

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In Kenya, Mr. Uhuru Kenyatta has won the Presidential election. Parties in Kenya tend to not be split on right-left grounds, but Kenyatta seems to have a bit of a liberal-conservative bent to him.

He is part of the Jubilee Alliance which appears to have also won the Senate, narrowly, and the House, also narrowly.

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Results of the Falklands Referendum is in.

1513 votes for YES

3 votes for NO

1 invalid ballot

155 not voting

One of the most one-sided referenda ever held in a democratic country, if not THE most one sided, ever.

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So they picked a pope and the lesson of the story is "Teddy was way off" which I admit.

On the up side, if you had bet on the winner, you'd have won about $40 for every $1 you bet.

---

Fun fact; there are 9 countries with between 20M and 40M catholics:

Venezuela, Germany, Peru, Poland, Spain, DR Congo, Argentina, Nigeria, and Colombia.

There are 2 between 40 and 60:

Italy and France

2 between 60 and 80

USA and Philippines

1 between 80 and 100

Mexico

and 1 over 120:

Brazil

---

188 popes have been from what is today Italy

66 popes have not been from Italy, they were from:

20 from unknown locations

14 from France

6 from Germany

5 from Syria (Christian Syria)

5 from Greece

3 from Spain

3 from Tunisia (Carthage)

3 from Israel (Galilee)

2 from Portugal

1 from Croatia

1 from the Netherlands

1 from Poland

1 from England

and 1 from Argentina

Unless otherwise noted (in brackets), the pope shared the current ethnic ancestry of the land.

Edited by TheNewTeddy

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Israel has a new government.

Likud and it's ally Yisrael Beiteinu will be joined by Lapid, Jewish Home, and Hatnuah.

This coalition has 68 of the 120 seats.

Lapid himself was given the Finance portfolio, while Livni is the Justice minister. Beiteinu will control portfolios such as Rural development and Immigration. Jewish Home will run departments such as Housing and Industry.

If I read what is between the lines, this means the government will take a moderate fiscal stance, get the religious element out of governing, and run "social" departments in a very conservative manner.

The first proposed legislation - one that all coalition partners agreed to - was raising the threshold from 2% to 4%. This would have resulted in Kadima, and the Arab parties not winning seats. The expected outcome of this is not to dis-include the Arab parties, but rather, force them to merge into a single unified party.

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It should be noted to those interested that the government of Australia is destroying itself from the inside out, and an election may happen sooner than originally planned.

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I'm posting to this thread because it has become "my" thread in many ways.

I have Autism. It's something I've disclosed on the forum before. "Okay, that's nice" you might think.

What it does mean is that my brain does not work the same as your brain does.

I am in a program called the Aspergers Job Readiness Program. One of the things we learn is that what we do and say can be interpreted in different ways. That a good employer will give us the benefit of the doubt.

I have found a job with a good employer. I start Monday.

Why am I posting here?

A few weeks ago I was accused by the admin of these forums of trolling him personally. I insisted this was not the case. He refused to answer. I contacted some of the admin's assistants, and they PMed the admin. He still refuses to answer.

One of the things we learn is that there are people out there who will always view you as 'defective'. That if you do something "wrong" and explain you are sorry, you did not know, you have autism and do not understand social queues, that these people will think you are either a liar, or, you are "stupid", IE, defective.

It seems the admin feels I am defective.

I've therefore decided to not return to this place. I can come here for free and be disliked by the admin, or, I can go to work with people who will give me money to be there who actually appreciate me for who I am.

I've chosen the latter.

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I'm posting to this thread because it has become "my" thread in many ways.

I have Autism. It's something I've disclosed on the forum before. "Okay, that's nice" you might think.

What it does mean is that my brain does not work the same as your brain does.

I am in a program called the Aspergers Job Readiness Program. One of the things we learn is that what we do and say can be interpreted in different ways. That a good employer will give us the benefit of the doubt.

I have found a job with a good employer. I start Monday.

Why am I posting here?

A few weeks ago I was accused by the admin of these forums of trolling him personally. I insisted this was not the case. He refused to answer. I contacted some of the admin's assistants, and they PMed the admin. He still refuses to answer.

One of the things we learn is that there are people out there who will always view you as 'defective'. That if you do something "wrong" and explain you are sorry, you did not know, you have autism and do not understand social queues, that these people will think you are either a liar, or, you are "stupid", IE, defective.

It seems the admin feels I am defective.

I've therefore decided to not return to this place. I can come here for free and be disliked by the admin, or, I can go to work with people who will give me money to be there who actually appreciate me for who I am.

I've chosen the latter.

Who cares what one person thinks about you.

I'm sure I'm not the only person who appreciates what you bring to this forum. This thread alone has a lot of valuable information. I hope you re-consider and continue to share your thoughts and information with us.

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Guest American Woman

I can come here for free and be disliked by the admin, or, I can go to work with people who will give me money to be there who actually appreciate me for who I am.

I've chosen the latter.

Why can't you choose both? As long as the admin allows you to post here, you are free to do so.Whether or not the admin likes you is really irrelevant. Forums such as this one are not a platform for personal friendships - it's an open forum, where some will like you, some will appreciate what you have to say, and some won't. Same as everyone else. You're not alone in that regard. Do you, personally, get something out of posting here? Do you learn anything by being here? To me that's the only measure of whether or not to continue posting. As far as you're concerned, it should be all about you! :)

Edited by American Woman

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