Jump to content
Political Discussion Forums
TheNewTeddy

International Elections

Recommended Posts

More from Libya

Top 4 parties expected to be as follows.

National Front - Liberal - Moderate, possibly pro-west?

Justice and Construction - Brotherhood - Islamic

Homeland Party - Non-Brotherhood Islamic - Islamic and Tribal

National Forces Alliance - Moderate Islamic - Nationalist, Progressive, Liberal, possibly Islamic

The latter (NFA) is lead by Jirbil, and is expected to "win". More soon.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A bit more detail.

So what's happened? In Iraq, a Shia alliance won after their democratic elections. You might think of them as a sort of Shia Brotherhood. Egypt and Tunisia turned to the Brotherhood too. Why is Libya turning away?

Two reasons. First, Gadaffi was much more successful in smashing the Brotherhood in to bits. Secondly, for the past decade or so, his regime has tried to play nice with them. This means that the Brotherhood is smaller in number in Libya, and that those who remain, are seem as too close to the old regime.

so what of results?

Jibril's NFA is expected to win most of the 80 party seats. From what I can gather, the Homeland Party is set for a second place finish. The Brotherhood and the Nationalists will fight for 3rd.

Even if every party formed a coalition, however, they'd not have a majority. Why? Well 120 members are going to be elected as Independents. Who they support is going to be important. There is some talk that many of them from the Eastern part of Libya will want support independence, or at least, sovereignty association.

The end result is that with the Brotherhood being weak, Mahmoud Jibril will come out of this as the strongest person. Though his association with the old regime will prevent him from taking official office, he will continue to be the "Shadow President" for the time being.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Jibril's party is projected to win 2/3rds of the vote in the east, and up to 80% in the west. In the south the race is closer.

This would give the following results... roughly, very roughly.

NFA - 50

Homeland - 10

Brotherhood - 10

Others - 10

The NFA does have some unofficially allied Independent candidates, and can be expected to cobble together a coalition. Word is they are not looking for any grand-coalition with the islamists, and thus, will likely try to govern alone.

My personal projection is for NFA allied candidates to have between 90 and 110 seats in the 200 seat assembly, and that there'd be at least 30 people willing to work with them, giving them a working majority, but without strict party discipline.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Dutch elections later this autumn can throw another nail in the coffin of the euro. Indeed, it sems the euro-sceptics are riding strong in the opinion polls.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Results from Libya! Still unofficial, but from local media.

41 - NFA (Jibril)

16 - Justice and Construction (Brotherhood)

7 - "Medium sized parties"*

16 - "One seat parties"**

* Includes 3 for the National Front Party (Liberal), and 2 for the "Central National Current" (???) and 2 for the "Union for the Homeland" (Misrata)

** From the names of these parties alone...

At least 6 of the one-party seats appear to be Islamist. They use buzzwords like "Wisdom, Tradition, Welfare" that parties like Hamas and Hezbollah use often.

Two use words like Women and Originality, that are often associated with critics of Islamist tendencies.

The remaining 7 are harder to classify.

A rough graphic to show the "balance of power"

Red as "Liberal", Blue as "Conservative/Islamist" and Yellow for "Unknown, Regional, or Other"

iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Official results

39 - 48.8% - NFA / Jibril

17 - 21.3% - J&C / Brotherhood

25 - ~ -4% - All Others

No other party broke 4%

The graphic above remains generally correct.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Romania had a referendum to impeach their president.

Not the first time this country has done that, they did it in 2007 as well. That ballot resulted in 3/4uarters saying no.

This time, to get the vote to work, Parliament changed the law. Previously, it required 50%+1 of all voters, voting or otherwise. To get around this, Parliament changed the law to now be 50%+1 of voting voters only. When the EU complained, they added a second stipulation, that 50%+1 of all voters must cast a ballot (a turnout minimum) for the vote to be valid.

Here is a turnout map of this referendum

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/53/Referendum_29_iulie.png

you can see the problem.

On the ballot question "Do you agree with the dismissal of Romanian President Traian Basescu?" only 46% of voters have bothered to cast a ballot, meaning the President has won the referendum, and will remain in office.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Calendar for upcoming elections in the "white parliamentary anglosphere"

BRITISH ISLES

Northern Ireland - May 7th, 2015

United Kingdom - 2015

Ireland - 2016

Wales - 2016

Scotland - 2016

ANZAC NATIONS

Australian Capital Territory - October 20th, 2012

Western Australia - March 9th, 2013

Australia (Federal) - November 20th, 2013 (or earlier, almost certainly earlier)

Southern Australia - March 15th, 2014

Tasmania - May 17th, 2014

Victoria - November 29th, 2014

New Zealand - December 6th, 2014

Queensland - June 20th, 2015

New South Wales - March 28th, 2015

Northern Territory - 2016

CANADA

(not included here as this is for intl)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There are elections tomorrow in the Netherlands. With between 10 and 12 parties winning seats, this is a complex affair. The one thing to note is it appears no pre-election alliance of parties will be able to form a government.

The parties are as follows.

VVD - Business Liberal - Similar to the current Harper government

PvdA - Labour - Similar to the current Mulcair NDP

PVV - Right Populist - Similar to the 1990 Reform Party (only more right-wing in places)

CDA - Christian Democrat - Think of the Joe Clark 2000 PC Party

SP - Socialist - Similar to the NDP's Socialist Caucus

D66 - Liberal - Similar to our Liberals between 1993 and 2011

GL - Green (Left) - The left-wing of the federal Greens, or, like the Saskatchewan Greens

CU - Christian - Imagine Joe Clark if he was "born again"

SGP - Christian - Similar to our Christian Heritage Party / Family Coalition Party

PvdD - Pro-Animal - Like these guys (click)

50 Plus - Pensioner - again, click here

Pirate - Pirate - Similar to Pirate Parties around the world.

Expected results are as follows

VVD - 35

PvdA - 34

SP - 22

PVV - 19

CDA - 12

D66 - 12

CU - 6

GL - 4

PvdD - 3

SGP - 2

50 Plus - 1

Pirate - 0

VVD and CDA are the current government. Combined they would win 47 seats, but they need 75 for a majority.

PvdA and SP are the left opposition. Combined they would win 56 seats. More, but also not enough for a majority.

CCD and CDA were able to get D66, GL, and CU to agree to austerity measures. Combined these parties would win 68 seats, short of a majority.

The EU proposed 'Fiscal Compact' is supported by those parties, but, PvdA has said they'd back it if they get a little more time to implement it. Combined, these parties would have 102 seats, a majority. It is debatable if Europe would agree to this.

Many think the most likely result is the pro-EU parties forming a coalition. VVD and CDA, plus D66 and PvdA would win 105 seats, a majority, and D66 would not be required in this equation.

The centre-left could try to form a government with the CDA, D66, GL, and PvdA. This would give them 62 seats, and would require support from SP to gain a majority.

Just about any party would sit with just about any other, but SP and PVV would never sit in the same government.

Lastly, it should be noted that after the last election, it took half a year to cobble together a majority. Similar events could happen again.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The parties are as follows.

VVD - Business Liberal - Similar to the current Harper government

PvdA - Labour - Similar to the current Mulcair NDP

PVV - Right Populist - Similar to the 1990 Reform Party (only more right-wing in places)

CDA - Christian Democrat - Think of the Joe Clark 2000 PC Party

SP - Socialist - Similar to the NDP's Socialist Caucus

D66 - Liberal - Similar to our Liberals between 1993 and 2011

GL - Green (Left) - The left-wing of the federal Greens, or, like the Saskatchewan Greens

CU - Christian - Imagine Joe Clark if he was "born again"

SGP - Christian - Similar to our Christian Heritage Party / Family Coalition Party

PvdD - Pro-Animal - Like these guys (click)

50 Plus - Pensioner - again, click here

Pirate - Pirate - Similar to Pirate Parties around the world.

Updated projections

PvdA - 36 (+6)

VVD - 35 (+4)

SP - 20 (+5)

PVV - 18 (-2)

CDA - 12 (-9)

D66 - 12 (+2)

CU - 6 (+1)

GL - 4 (-6)

PvdD - 3 (+3)

SGP - 2 (+-0)

50 Plus - 2 (+2)

Pirate - 0 (+-0)

(change from last election)

Pro-EU Parties

Centre-Left parties + SP

Left

Right

Centre (Centre-Left and Centre-Right)

Other

Edited by TheNewTeddy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

VVD has taken 41 seats compared to PvdA with 40. Together this is a majority and they are expected to cobble one together.

The problem comes from my analogy comparing this to Canadian politics. We are expecting Harper and Mulcair to form a coalition government and this will not be easy.

PVV is set to take 13 seats, and CDA is expected to take 13 as well. D66 is expected to take 12.

SP is expected to finish with 15, despite leading the polls earlier in the campaign.

Coalitions

VVD+PvdA = 81 (76 needed)

PvdA+SP = 55

VVD+CDA = 53

PvdA+CDA+D66 = 65 +SP = 80

Results map

http://www.google.nl/elections/ed/nl/results

Remember the Netherlands uses PR

Edited by TheNewTeddy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

VVD has taken 41 seats compared to PvdA with 40. Together this is a majority and they are expected to cobble one together.

The problem comes from my analogy comparing this to Canadian politics. We are expecting Harper and Mulcair to form a coalition government and this will not be easy.

PVV is set to take 13 seats, and CDA is expected to take 13 as well. D66 is expected to take 12.

SP is expected to finish with 15, despite leading the polls earlier in the campaign.

Coalitions

VVD+PvdA = 81 (76 needed)

PvdA+SP = 55

VVD+CDA = 53

PvdA+CDA+D66 = 65 +SP = 80

Results map

http://www.google.nl/elections/ed/nl/results

Remember the Netherlands uses PR

a definite shift to the left pro EU and a firm rejection of the extreme right(losing 11 seats) and Geert wilders he'll no longer have any influence holding a government coalition hostage...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

SP also got trounced, they were expected to win the election.

that would be an interesting turn around, something divisive must have occurred or the polls just got it very wrong...but the right wing loon wilders is out of the government and that was the most important outcome...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A rough graphic to show the "balance of power"

Red as "Liberal", Blue as "Conservative/Islamist" and Yellow for "Unknown, Regional, or Other"

iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii

looks like 60% progressive, 40% regressive/oppressive...roughly how canada breaks down as well...

edit that, theirs looks like 60% progressive, 25-30& regressive and there is that unidentifiable group of 10-15% yellow which could go either way...

Edited by wyly

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wilders' party's election-defeat doesn't mean that the Dutch would have all of a sudden fallen in love with mass-immigration. It only means that they are pissed off with the party forcing this completely unnecessary early election. The electoral term is four years and the election before was in 2010.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wilders' party's election-defeat doesn't mean that the Dutch would have all of a sudden fallen in love with mass-immigration. It only means that they are pissed off with the party forcing this completely unnecessary early election. The electoral term is four years and the election before was in 2010.

no wilders pissed off the sizable dutch expats community who wilders wanted to strip of citizenship, what he succeeded in doing was uniting the expats who can still vote in dutch elections...the government has changed very little, the people rejected the extreme right in favour of a pro euro stance...wilders is an fascist aberration in a country that abhors fascists... Edited by wyly

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hong Kong held elections recently as well. The results are as follows:

THE SPLIT:

Pro-Beijing

This is an alliance of parties that may not be communist or anti-rights, but who want to get on the 'good side' of the national government. For that reason they can also be seen as pro-business, or, Conservative.

Pro-Democracy

This is an alliance of parties that may or may not be considered progressive or pro-rights. They are more concerned with keeping the local freedoms HK has, and may even be on the more conservative side of the spectrum.

THE ELECTORATE

HK uses a strange electoral system. There are 35 constituency seats, elected in 5 multi-member ridings.

There are, however, also a number of "Functional constituencies" There are 5 of these that seem at-large, and there are 30 more traditional FCs. Those voting in traditional seats can not also vote in the FCs.

The FCs are a unique idea, one that I like in moderation. One of the FCs is the Education Constituency. This would include Teachers etc, and only Teachers can vote in this HK-wide constituency. There are 89k Teachers in this constituency. Another is Tourism, and in this one, it is business that get the vote, 1236 of them to be exact. While the Democrats to hold one of these seats (Labour, Legal, Education) they lean far more towards the Beijing camp.

The combined popular vote from the Geographic Constituencies and the at-large FCs is as follows:

Democrats: 1,826,032

Beijing: 1,495,558

Non-Align: 81,266

The election results are as follows:

DAB (B) 13

Civic (D) 6

Democratic (D) 6

FTU (B) 6

Liberal (B) 5

Labour (D) 4

PeoPwr (D) 3

EcoSyn (B) 3

Others (D) 5

Others (B) 5

Inds (B) 11

Inds (D) 3

Beijing: 43

Democrsts: 27

The split before the new seats (10) were added was 23 to 37, this is the results from last election. This gave the Democrats 38% of the seats.

The current split is 27 to 43, which gives the Democrats 33% of the seats. This is enough to veto any constitutional changes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Final results are in for the Netherlands election.

VVD-41

PvdA-38

PVV-15

SP-15

CDA-13

D66-12

CU-5

GL-4

SGP-3

PvdD-2

50+-2

VVD wants a govt with PvdA, but will not sit with PVV or SP.

PvdA wants a govt with VVD, and will not sit with PVV. Also willing to form a left government.

PVV is unwilling to be in any government.

SP will not sit with VVD, only in a left government.

CDA is looking at sitting with a PVV and PvdA govt

D66 is looking at the same.

CU wants the same

SGP wants the same, but would like the CDA to join, as with all 3, they'd have a Senate Majority, something the 2 do not have on their own.

PvdD would rather see a left or right govt, not one of the two largest parties

GL has decided to sit in opposition, but wants a VVD and PvdA govt

50+ also wants a VVD and PvdA govt

Just about everyone wants and expects a VVD and PvdA govt. They'd need another party like the CDA to get a majority in the Senate. I see this as likely.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Election counting ongoing in Ukraine. Current results are as follows.

210 - Party of Regions and small party allies

89 - Fatherland Party

42 - Freedom Party

41 - Democracy Party

19 - Communist Party

49 - Independents

The Party of Regions is pro-moscow and many accuse it of being anti-europe and anti-democratic.

Fatherland is the pro-west pro-democracy party of that lady who was premier for a while

"Freedom" party is a NAZI-like party

Democracy is what is left of what was once the party of that guy who lead the "orange revolution"

Communists are Communist of course

The Independents will decide what happens. 226 is needed for a majority and many expect the Party of Regions could offer them enough with legal powerful positions or illegal bribes for them to form a majority.

Ukraine uses 225 single-member-ridings like we do with 225 seat in a form of parallel Proportional Representation.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Missed Updates:

Belarus

The dictatorship's party has won 109 of the 110 seats, and is set to win the final seat in a second round of voting. The election was "Fair" if you consider "Fair" to include counting all administration ballots 4 times.

Switzerland

referenda were held.

A smoking ban failed, as did a proposal on secure housing (old age), however music lessons (in schools) passed.

Georgia (the country)

National elections were held.

The sitting administration won 65 seats while the opposition won 85. The opposition (now government) is a mish-mash of the the overthrown admin (2003), racists, pro-west liberals, and pro-market neo-cons.

Venezuela

Chavez was re-elected with 55% to the opposition candidate's 44%. The elections were generally considered fair and free. This 44% combines with 47% in the most recent parliamentary election to be the strongest opposition challenge to Chavez to date.

Czech Republic

Senate elections were held. The Social Democrats won 13 seats. The Democrats won 4, and others won a combined 8. The Democrats are a Conservative party.

Lithuania

A referendum on a new nuke plant was held and was rejected. Parliamentary elections were also held. Due to the complexity of the system, this is dealt with in my second post.

Montenegro

The Pro-European party won 39 seats, and lost it's current majority, in the assembly of 81 members. It is expected the party will find support in the party of the Bosnian minority, which won 3 seats, and has worked with them before.

Iceland

A referendum on a new constitution was held and all questions passed. The questions included adopting the constitution, making natural resources not already privately owned naitonalized, creating an established national church, something I don't understand about elections, ending the favoring of rural areas (more seats) in parliament, and allowing a certain fraction of the electorate to demand a referendum. All questions passed with between 57% (church) and 78% (question I didn't understand) support.

Ukraine

Final results are out. Among the opposition, the Fatherland party won 101 seats, the Democrats 40, the Communists 32, and the Freedom Party 37, for a total of 210 seats. The smaller parties won 7 seats, and 43 Independents were elected. The Party of Regions has won 185 seats.

200px-Ukr_elections_2012_multimandate_okruhs.png

Blue is PoR and Pink is opposition.

Of the smaller parties is one party who's leader threatened to physically assault anyone who supports the gays; a pro-opposition party, a pro PoR party, and a party that's more pro-Russia than the PoR.

This gives the Government 189 seats and the opposition 213, however the government is expected to be able to persuade most of the Independents to vote for them. They would combine with the Government to make for 232 seats.

Note 5 seats are still undecided.

Vanuatu

Yes this place is a real country. The sitting government has been reduced to 4 seats, surpassed by the NUP at 8, and the VP at 11. The VP is left-wing while the NUP is supported from English speakers. I'm unable to find who won the other 29 seats in Parliament, but in short, we can expect a coalition.

Ireland

A referendum was held on children's rights, and passed.

Slovenia

A first round was held in the Presidential elections of this EU country. Phor, the Social Democrat, and Turk, the Independent made it though to the second round, which will be held a week from today.

San Marino

The world's oldest republic held an election, and the Christian-Democrat lead Centrist Alliance won a majority, and was thus re-elected.

China

"Elections" were held and Xi Jinping (pronounced 'shee gin-ping') was "elected" as the new leader of China.

Sierra Leone

The Incumbent President was re-elected to another term. Elections were considered to be both free and fair.

Belgium

Sub-national elections were held that only confirmed the existing balance of parties, with the Flemish autonomists increasing in power.

West Bank

Palestinian local elections were held, where Fatah continued it's strength. Elections in Gaza were postponed due to it being controlled by a theocratic single-party terrorist militancy.

Spain

A number of local elections were held. In the Basque region, Basque nationalist and separatist parties won. As a result, the terrorist Eta has said it wants to disband and is willing to hand over it's weapons. In Galicia, the Conservatives won, and local nationalist and separatist groups did poorly. In Catalonia the Catalonian Conservatives trounced the Catalonian Socialists, whom both finished ahead of the national Conservative and Socialist parties. The Catalonian parties are a mix of nationalists and somewhat separatist. Due to failed autonomy negotiations between the local and national Conservatives, a coalition between both nationalist parties may be in the works.

Turks and Caicos

After imposition of direct rule by the UK due to corruption charges, free elections were held last month. 8 of the 15 seats were won by the PNP and 7 by the PDM. Their politics are unknown at this time.

England and Wales.

Elections for PCCs were held. These are new positions of people who will control the budget of local police forces. The election results map as thus:

325px-England_and_Wales_Police_and_Crime_Commission_elections_2012_map.svg.png

The Tories won 16 seats while Labour won 13. 12 Independents were elected. Both the Liberal-Democrats and the anti-EU party UKIP failed to win any seats.

Edited by TheNewTeddy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Upcoming elections

Bermuda will hold national elections on December 17th

Venezuela will hold regional elections on the 16th

Kuwait will hold elections on the 1st

Burkina Faso on the 2nd

Slovenia will finish it's elections on the 2nd

Ghana will hold the first round of Presidential Elections on the 7th

Romania will hold elections on the 9th. Romania is a EU country, thus, this may be of note.

Japan will hold elections on the 16th. Japan is one of the most powerful countries in the world, and this election will get much attention (from me at least)

South Korea will elect a President on the 19th. It will also get much attention from me as SK is in an important position.

Ghana will complete it's elections on the 28th.

In Lithuania the sitting government was voted out and replaced with the Social Democrats. The sitting government is a Conservative party, and pro-Europe, but is seen as nationalistic. The Social Democrats are a more traditional left-wing SD party. They will be sitting in coalition with Labour, which is actually a liberal party. Order and Justice, a right-wing radical group, will join them. This party is a mix of borderline racists, populists, and liberals who do not care for Europe. In opposition will be the Liberals, who are indeed liberal, the Polish Party (representing the Poles) the populist party, and the Peasant Party. Numerical results were as follows:

Social Democrats - 38

Conservatives - 33

Labour - 29

Order and Justice - 11

Liberal - 10

Polish Party - 8

Populists - 7

Peasants - 1

Independents - 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Elections were held in Kuwait. Turnout was the lowest the kingdom had ever seen. Both Liberals and Conservatives boycotted the election, and will thus have no representation in the new parliament.

Burkina Faso held elections on the 2nd. That's all that is known at this time, and not to be rude, but all that matters.

In Slovenia, the Social Democrat, Pahor, won election, beating the incumbent in the second round by a margin greater than one third.

Upcoming

7th - http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2012 Ghana

9th - http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2012 Romania

15th - http://en.wikipedia....eferendum,_2012 Egypt

16th - http://en.wikipedia....elections,_2012 Venezula

17th - http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2012 Bermuda

19th - http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2012 South Korea

28th - http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2012 Ghana

In South Korea, the election is between Moon and Park. Park is leading her Conservatives in their attempt to hold on to the office, the incumbent is term limited. Moon is running for the Liberals. Park has been leading in the polls, but the recent departure of Ahn from the race, and his endorsement of Moon, is expected to shake up the polls. The most recent poll has both candidates within the margin of error, but Park still narrowly ahead.

http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2012

Japan's election takes place on the 16th.

Japan uses a unique Proportional Representation system that is both more rare and more simple than other PR systems. It is a Parallel system.

There are 480 seats in the lower house of Parliament. 300 of these members are elected in the constituencies. The remaining 180 are elected based on PR, but, under a parallel system, the PR votes apply only to those 180. Thus if a party wins 50% of the vote, they win 90 of these PR seats, and win those 90 regardless of whether they've taken 1 or 299 of the remaining 300.

Japan has many parties. The Democratic Liberals and Liberal Democrats are the two biggest, though, the former has dropped Liberal from it's name. The DPJ is the current government and is seen as a moderate left party. The LDP is a conservative party, and save for a short period in 1993, has been the majority part of governments in the country since the end of the second world war. The voting public still holds the same anger at the LDP that caused that party to lose government in 2009, but also now holds anger towards the current DPJ government. This means smaller parties may make gains.

There are many smaller parties not expected to take more than 5% of the vote. These include the Social Democrats, the Communists, and the "Your Party". The Japan Future Party was formed last week, built on another smaller party that had been riding at the same level as these other parties. It remains to be seen if it will break free of this or not.

The New Komeito Party is difficult to classify. It is seen as an LDP ally, and is expected to take between 4% and 6% of the vote.

The DPJ has been as low as 20% in the polls, and is not expected to finish first. They could, however, still "win" if they manage to win a higher than expected share of the non-PR seats, and/or find allies to sit in coalition.

The LDP is expected to "win" but has been unable to break much beyond 35% in the polls. They will thus likely need coalition partners unless they manage to take a large number of the non-PR seats.

Most interesting is the new Japan Restoration Party. Founded only in September, the party has been at or over 25% in various polls. The party is lead by the governor of Tokyo from 1999 straight through to the end of this October. He is very popular in the area and is seen as successful. The party is considered to be a "far-right" party, but my research puts them closer to our Reform Party, in both policy and intent. The Party also uses Green as it's colour, but then again, so does the LDP.

Edited by TheNewTeddy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Japan

Poll Averaging:

LDP - 38.15%

DPJ - 21.75%

JRP - 19.14%

NKP - 6.85%

YP - 4.48%

JFP - 4.17%

JCP - 3.69%

SDP - 1.77%

I expect some movement between now and election day.

PR results on these numbers: (unadjusted for movement)

LDP - 69

DPJ - 39

JRP - 34

NKP - 12

YP - 8

JFP - 8

JCP - 7

SDP - 3

I also have a math formula for projecting FPTP results. Though I caution that this formula is not very accurate - though it is the best one out there - and Japan uses a system far more complicated than FPTP. Pure math at current poll numbers gives the following:

LDP - 182

DPJ - 59

JRP - 46

NKP - 6

YP - 3

JFP - 2

JCP - 2

SDP - 0

The totals are thus

LDP - 251

DPJ - 98

JRP - 80

NKP - 18

YP - 11

JFP - 10

JCP - 9

SDP - 3

I expect that the JRP and JFP have momentum, and that the DPJ and LDP will lose out. Thus my projection at the time is as follows:

LDP - 235

JRP - 100

DPJ - 88

JFP - 19

NKP - 16

YP - 12

JCP - 7

SDP - 3

Leaving the LDP a few seats short of a majority.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now


×