bud

Experts Say Iran Attack Is Irrational, Yet Hawks Are Winning the Debat

58 posts in this topic

From the chairman of the Joint Chiefs to the head of Mossad, the experts are speaking out against attacking Iran over its nuclear program, but hawks like the GOP presidential candidates are drowning out the warnings.

here is a breakdown of some of the experts. from the u.s.

In 2007, the U.S. intelligence community’s National Intelligence Estimate on Iran argued that the Iranian regime—loathsome as it is—is “guided by a cost-benefit approach.” In 2011, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper testified before Congress that “we continue to judge Iran’s nuclear decision-making is guided by a cost-benefit approach.” Last week, Gen. Ron Burgess, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, told Congress that “the agency assesses Iran is unlikely to initiate or provoke a conflict.” Last weekend, Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told CNN’s Fareed Zakaria: “We are of the opinion that Iran is a rational actor.”

from israel:

Most of the Israeli security officials who have commented publicly have said similar things. In December, Haaretz reported that Mossad chief Tamir Pardo had called Iran a threat, but not an existential one. Earlier this month, former Mossad chief Efraim Halevy echoed that view, declaring that “it is not in the power of Iran to destroy the state of Israel.” That same week, former Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Dan Halutz said virtually the same thing: that “Iran poses a serious threat but not an existential one.”

link

so i wonder why there are people who are still salivating at the chance for another war.

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Madeleine Albright to Colin Powell concerning Bosnia:

"What's the point of having this superb military that you're always talking about if we can't use it" -

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so i wonder why there are people who are still salivating at the chance for another war.

Because they're a bunch of grumpy white guys who figure themselves tough hard-asses. Unfortunately, they don't seem analyze the situation logically, and, also unfortunately, they occupy positions of power.

Most of the GOP candidates are either grumpy hard-asses themselves (Gingrich), or face pressure to talk hawkish because those voting for them are grumpy white hard-asses who, despite many not knowing butt-all about the situation or have the ability to look at it rationally, put pressure on these GOP'ers (and even Obama) to appear hawkish and tough on foreign policy/Iran.

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...it is not in the power of Iran to destroy the state of Israel.

Just Tel Aviv with 15-18kt device. To take out Israel it will take Iran a while longer plus a hydrogen bomb.

15 kilotonnes.

3.3 megatonnes.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YW3FBN2zfdk

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Some of the other posters were correct about some things. One poster said that the right-wingers are always looking for a war. That's true. Another poster said that the Republican candidates are a bunch of grumpy white guys looking to act tough. Also true.

But don't be surprised if Obama gets the US in a war with Iran. The Democrats are warmongers just like the Republicans.

Can you imagine that? On the heels of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan the crazy politicians of both political parties are saber-rattling over Iran. These politicians of both political parties are loose cannons. They can't be trusted Republican or Democrat. One of these war-happy loonies in the White House is going to push the atomic button one day.

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You know, I'm always surprised that so many people ignore the simplest explanations.

Isn't it more likely that the hawks just don't believe the doves?

Bud opens up with a couple of experts who believe one side of the argument. He appears to take their views as gospel, as facts of the universe that can't be denied. By his lights, if you disagree you simply must be wrong!

This is more of a religious than a logical argument.

There are other experts who disagree. More than that, a country like Israel has no choice but to take threats seriously, since they simply cannot afford to make a mistake and lose. Too much blood is at stake. If Bud and his experts are wrong, they themselves will not suffer in the slightest! They have no skin in the game, as it were.

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You know, I'm always surprised that so many people ignore the simplest explanations.

Isn't it more likely that the hawks just don't believe the doves?

Except we're not hawks and doves simply following their instincts, we're human beings with the will to choose otherwise.

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I'm not really sure what the answer is here. I think it's really too early for any action on Iran. If Israel feels threatened though, I don't think there will be any stopping a conflict.

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... They can't be trusted Republican or Democrat. One of these war-happy loonies in the White House is going to push the atomic button one day.

That's right...because both parties are American. There is no atomic button..it's more like a pistol grip trigger. More fun that way.

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You know, I'm always surprised that so many people ignore the simplest explanations.

Isn't it more likely that the hawks just don't believe the doves?

you're calling the current mossad chief, the former mossad chief and former IDF chief, doves.

i see.

that's your reason for their comments. it's because they're doves. it's totally not because they're actual experts who have decades of experience and know the ins and outs of israel's capabilities and iran's capabilities and intentions. right.

can you name some experts who are for israel attacking iran?

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You're the 'expert' who obsessed with Jews and their evil plots to control the planet. You're the 'expert' who keeps telling the crowd that Germa Iran is not a threat but, rather, Polan Israel is the threat.

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You're the 'expert' who obsessed with Jews and their evil plots to control the planet. You're the 'expert' who keeps telling the crowd that Germa Iran is not a threat but, rather, Polan Israel is the threat.

you're the worst at playing the anti-semite card. absolutely pathetic.

do you have a response to what the current and ex mossad chiefs have said? what about the idf chief? do their comments make your head want to explode?

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you're the worst at playing the anti-semite card. absolutely pathetic.

do you have a response to what the current and ex mossad chiefs have said? what about the idf chief? do their comments make your head want to explode?

Don't you have me on ignore? C'mon. Show some spine.

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Don't you have me on ignore? C'mon. Show some spine.

i'm a bleeding heart, remember? i believe in giving the less fortunate a chance.

so here is your third and last chance:

do you have any comments about what the current and ex mossad chiefs, and the former idf chief or what u.s. director of national intelligence or general burgess and general dempsey have to say?

here, i'll make it easier for you:

In 2007, the U.S. intelligence community’s National Intelligence Estimate on Iran argued that the Iranian regime—loathsome as it is—is “guided by a cost-benefit approach.” In 2011, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper testified before Congress that “we continue to judge Iran’s nuclear decision-making is guided by a cost-benefit approach.” Last week, Gen. Ron Burgess, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, told Congress that “the agency assesses Iran is unlikely to initiate or provoke a conflict.” Last weekend, Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told CNN’s Fareed Zakaria: “We are of the opinion that Iran is a rational actor.”

from israel:

Most of the Israeli security officials who have commented publicly have said similar things. In December, Haaretz reported that Mossad chief Tamir Pardo had called Iran a threat, but not an existential one. Earlier this month, former Mossad chief Efraim Halevy echoed that view, declaring that “it is not in the power of Iran to destroy the state of Israel.” That same week, former Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Dan Halutz said virtually the same thing: that “Iran poses a serious threat but not an existential one.”

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I'm not really sure what the answer is here. I think it's really too early for any action on Iran. If Israel feels threatened though, I don't think there will be any stopping a conflict.

Im really not even sure theres a question that needs answering? Israel, Iran and other countries in the middle east are run by militant scumbags. Weve spend the better part of the last century trying to fix the problems in that god forsake dump. We oughtta just stop doing it. If Iran and Israel want to negotiate a treaty where they both give up their nuclear problems, thats fine. If they want to have an arms race thats fine too. We should not intervene any more than we did when India and Pakistan were building nuclear weapons... and its a good thing they did because they have had the longest period of relative peace in a hundred years now that MAD doctrine is in place.

Who f__king cares? Not me.

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re: bub's post

Wild Bill: Bud opens up with a couple of experts who believe one side of the argument. He appears to take their views as gospel, as facts of the universe that can't be denied. By his lights, if you disagree you simply must be wrong!

As mentioned, an 18kt device (or so) would merely level Tel Aviv. That you think Iran is doing atomic R&D alongside ICBM development for peaceful purposes is quite amusing. If this were a game and I was playing Iran, I'd want the %@#&* Bomb. The chances of anyone other than Israel responding in kind are quite low. As my clever wife commented last night: 'The world will sit on the sidelines and see how this pans out. They can condemn the side that throws the first punch while giving a great big "Meh" to whomever gets flattened like a pancake.' Or something to that effect. She's right.

dre's post above is just what I'm talking about. Kaboom...meh.

:lol:

Edited by DogOnPorch

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re: bub's post

Wild Bill: Bud opens up with a couple of experts who believe one side of the argument. He appears to take their views as gospel, as facts of the universe that can't be denied. By his lights, if you disagree you simply must be wrong!

As mentioned, an 18kt device (or so) would merely level Tel Aviv. That you think Iran is doing atomic R&D alongside ICBM development for peaceful purposes is quite amusing. If this was a game and I was playing Iran, I'd want the %@#&* Bomb. The chances of anyone other than Israel responding in kind are quite low. As my clever wife commented last night: 'The world will sit on the sidelines and see how this pans out. They can condemn the side that throws the first punch while giving a great big "Meh" to whomever gets flattened like a pancake.' Or something to that effect. She's right.

dre's post above is just what I'm talking about. Kaboom...meh.

:lol:

Yup, and history shows thats the right approach. Theres all kinds of countries working on all kinds of "kaboom". If we went to war every time a country built the means to threaten its neighbors the cold war would have been hot and a billion people would have died. Same if we had intervened in India and Pakistans Kaboom games.

At the end of the day the best way to avoid Kaboom is if both sides of various conflicts have a mutual respect for the other guys Kaboom. A nuclear Iran would quite likely lead to the most peaceful period the middle east has ever seen.

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Iran eats its own.

I don't trust 'em enough to not eat me, too, given the chance. So your era of peace I feel would more be an era of blackmail and terrorism...perhaps nuclear terrorism. But, the world will still go "Meh" until real interests other than Jews or Iranians are at stake. Watch...

Edited by DogOnPorch

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Iran eats its own.

I don't trust 'em enough to not eat me, too, given the chance. So your era of peace I feel would more be an era of blackmail and terrorism...perhaps nuclear terrorism. But, the world will still go "Meh" until real interests other than Jews or Iranians are at stake. Watch...

You dont have to sell me on that, I agree, and thats exactly what the world SHOULD do. We cant stop everyone on earth who wants to fight from fighting. The west cannot even fund their own governments never mind stop retards around the world round from killin each other.

And this potential conflict has no good guys. Both sides have been provoking each other, and ratcheting up the rhetoric. If dont really see any way we can stop them from fighting if they want to fight.

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You dont have to sell me on that, I agree, and thats exactly what the world SHOULD do. We cant stop everyone on earth who wants to fight from fighting. The west cannot even fund their own governments never mind stop retards around the world round from killin each other.

And this potential conflict has no good guys. Both sides have been provoking each other, and ratcheting up the rhetoric. If dont really see any way we can stop them from fighting if they want to fight.

Can you remind me when Israel provoked Iran? Taking out their terrorist interests in Gaza? I guess that would piss 'em off!

Edited by DogOnPorch

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Can you remind me when Israel provoked Iran? Taking out their terrorist intrests in Gaza? I guess that would piss 'em off!

Sure, theyre openly talking about bombing them for one thing. THey invaded and occupied lebanon which has a fairly large Shia majority. Theres a good chance they are sponsoring car bombings and attacks on Military bases inside Iran and possibly cyber warfare as well.

These two countries talk like they want a fight. Its either a huge game of chicken or they really do fancy killing each other.

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Sure, theyre openly talking about bombing them for one thing. THey invaded and occupied lebanon which has a fairly large Shia majority. Theres a good chance they are sponsoring car bombings and attacks on Military bases inside Iran and possibly cyber warfare as well.

These two countries talk like they want a fight. Its either a huge game of chicken or they really do fancy killing each other.

Now why did Israel invade Lebanon for the second time again? Hmmmmmmmmm....toughie.

Re the rest: 'Your Honor, there's a "good chance" the defendant is guilty so I move we proceed straight to sentencing.'

Edited by DogOnPorch

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Now why did Israel invade Lebanon for the second time again? Hmmmmmmmmm....toughie.

Re the rest: 'Your Honor, there's a "good chance" the defendant is guilty so I move we proceed straight to sentencing.'

Re the rest: 'Your Honor, there's a "good chance" the defendant is guilty so I move we proceed straight to sentencing.'

Thats exactly your position on Iran. They might be refining Uranium beyond whats necessary for civilian power, and if they are they might have a nuclear weapons program, and if they do they might get a usable bomb someday, and if they do they might use it, or the might give it to terrorists.

Saddam might have had huge active WMD programs too!

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If Bud and his experts are wrong, they themselves will not suffer in the slightest! They have no skin in the game, as it were.

There is also the possibility that Bud is right. It should be easy to see that this whole war on terror would eventually bring the sites on Iran. What would you do if you saw the country on either side of you get bombed and taken over by the west? What would your course of action be? Would you try to appease knowing it's useless? Or would you try getting some kind of deterent in place?

Israel and the US have already tried to goad Iran into attacking them. Iran has not taken the bait, seems they are a little smarter than that. Iranian scientists getting killed. Iran hacked the drone the US was using over Iran. Multiple military sites within Iran that houses their national guards attacked/destroyed.

Noooooo we don't pay attention to the covert war already going on. We just want to say IRan is bad so another war can be started. Anyone tired of all this stupid war? I am ....

But another war needs to be started. Money needs to be made.

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