bud

Experts Say Iran Attack Is Irrational, Yet Hawks Are Winning the Debat

58 posts in this topic

Thats exactly your position on Iran. They might be refining Uranium beyond whats necessary for civilian power, and if they are they might have a nuclear weapons program, and if they do they might get a usable bomb someday, and if they do they might use it, or the might give it to terrorists.

Saddam might have had huge active WMD programs too!

Why did Israel invade Lebanon?

Saddam had a huge WMD program. Plus he was good at hiding things. It wouldn't surprise me if nerve gas precursors turned up buried in the desert years down the road.

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...they might get a usable bomb someday, and if they do they might use it, or the might give it to terrorists.

They're close, I'd say. I thought Iran was going to test one when Dinnerjacket pronounced big news in the nuclear department (never happened...the blast nor his announcement). My bet is by container-ship as close to Tel Aviv as it can get re: delivery. An ICBM capable device is still a ways off. But oddly, Iran is testing high speed re-entry shrouds...so qui sais? Maybe they're ready there, too.

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If this were a game and I was playing Iran, I'd want the %@#&* Bomb.

And if I were Iran all this sabre-rattling would make me want it 50x more. If there's any country in the freaking world right now that could use a bomb to secure itself from foreign attack, it's Iran.

The chances of anyone other than Israel responding in kind are quite low. As my clever wife commented last night: 'The world will sit on the sidelines and see how this pans out. They can condemn the side that throws the first punch while giving a great big "Meh" to whomever gets flattened like a pancake.' Or something to that effect. She's right.

I disagree with you & your wife. If Iran tries to close the Strait of Hormuz, or blockade Saudi oil ships, the Saudis and the US almost certainly get involved, as may other regional and NATO players. There's a lot of interests happening in the region. Look what happened in Libya, do you think the US and others will stand by if there's a war in the region of MUCH greater stakes? Israel & Iran don't live in some little bubble.

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And if I were Iran all this sabre-rattling would make me want it 50x more. If there's any country in the freaking world right now that could use a bomb to secure itself from foreign attack, it's Iran.

That won't secure nuthin', frankly. They'd better use it wisely.

I disagree with you & your wife. If Iran tries to close the Strait of Hormuz, or blockade Saudi oil ships, the Saudis and the US almost certainly get involved, as may other regional and NATO players. There's a lot of interests happening in the region. Look what happened in Libya, do you think the US and others will stand by if there's a war in the region of MUCH greater stakes? Israel & Iran don't live in some little bubble.

That would be interests outside Jews and Iranians killing each other...no?

I stand by my:

Watch...

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Who f__king cares? Not me.

I agree with you, really. You won't see me making the same arguments with regards to Iran that I did for Syria. There is absolutely zero reason for anyone to go into Iran, save an actual credible threat.

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There is also the possibility that Bud is right. It should be easy to see that this whole war on terror would eventually bring the sites on Iran. What would you do if you saw the country on either side of you get bombed and taken over by the west? What would your course of action be? Would you try to appease knowing it's useless? Or would you try getting some kind of deterent in place?

Yes GH, it IS possible for Bud to be right! However, he would be right in the fashion that Neville Chamberlain could have been right. Or how unilateral disarmament might have worked if America had done so during the Cold War.

Hitler might NOT have waged war! The USSR might well have decided not to be aggressive!

The difference is that when such approaches are wrong they are always FAR bloodier! Nobody picks on the BIG kid, or the one with a baseball bat! It's always the one who seems too weak to defend himself.

What's more, things still come down to the cold hard fact that if people like Bud are wrong it is Israel who pays the price, NOT them!

You can suggest anything when you have no skin in the game yourself!

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Yes GH, it IS possible for Bud to be right! However, he would be right in the fashion that Neville Chamberlain could have been right. Or how unilateral disarmament might have worked if America had done so during the Cold War.

Hitler might NOT have waged war! The USSR might well have decided not to be aggressive!

Iran is not comparable to germany under hitler nor USSR. This argument s absurd and totally baseless. Ofcourse there are always certain extremists who compare islam to islamofascism as there are the same fanatics who compare judaism to judofascism! Seems like none of these groups who advocate propaganda war on religion have learned their lesson. It wasn't islam that brought about nazism nor communism to this world...Now with both threats long gone it seems very very convenient to fill the gap with islam.

The difference is that when such approaches are wrong they are always FAR bloodier! Nobody picks on the BIG kid, or the one with a baseball bat! It's always the one who seems too weak to defend himself.

Oh yes. Forgive Iran if she wants to protect its territorial integrity against foreign invasion when both her neighbours are already invaded. Any country in that region with a bit of sense would do the same to protect its sovereignty.

What's more, things still come down to the cold hard fact that if people like Bud are wrong it is Israel who pays the price, NOT them!

Well...equally, it comes down to the hard fact that if people like you are wrong 80 MILLION IRANIANS have to pay the price not Israel!! Unless ofcourse you like many others on this forum have a 'vested interest in Israel' to push for this ideological war between Iran and the west.

You can suggest anything when you have no skin in the game yourself!

Neither do you. If you live in Canada or the west what is your interest in that region? That aside, more importantly what if you are wrong about this?

Edited by kactus

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Iran is not comparable to germany under hitler nor USSR. This argument s absurd and totally baseless.

The argument's utility is in it's absurdity. Rationally trying to discuss a hallucination is pointless.

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Iran is not comparable to germany under hitler nor USSR. This argument s absurd and totally baseless. Ofcourse there are always certain extremists who compare islam to islamofascism as there are the same fanatics who compare judaism to judofascism! Seems like none of these groups who advocate propaganda war on religion have learned their lesson. It wasn't islam that brought about nazism nor communism to this world...Now both long gone it seems very very convenient to fill the gap with islam.

oh yes. Forgive Iran if she wants to protect its territorial integrity against foreign invasion when both her neighbours are already invaded.

Well...equally, it comes down to the hard fact that if people like you are wrong 80 MILLION IRANIANS have to pay the price not Israel!! Unless ofcourse you like many others on this forum have a 'vested interest in Israel' to push for this ideological war between Iran and the west.

Neither do you. If you live in Canada or the west what is your interest in that region? That aside, more importantly what if you are wrong about this?

Sorry, but I have heard too many things from Ahmadinejad that are absolutely loopy to have any faith in the rationality of Iran's leadership.

Besides, it doesn't matter what you or I think. It matters what Israel thinks! When Israel looks at Iran it sees David Pearl!

It's not as if Iran has done much lately to try to make Israel feel more secure.

I have a great deal of respect for the Iranian people, just none for any form of religious government, anywhere. My fervent hope is for the young people in Iran to throw their government out!

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Sorry, but I have heard too many things from Ahmadinejad that are absolutely loopy to have any faith in the rationality of Iran's leadership.

And yet you still have faith in the loopiest things that are attributed to them. How do you explain that glaring contradiction, with drugs or religion maybe?

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Sorry, but I have heard too many things from Ahmadinejad that are absolutely loopy to have any faith in the rationality of Iran's leadership.

Besides, it doesn't matter what you or I think. It matters what Israel thinks! When Israel looks at Iran it sees David Pearl!

It's not as if Iran has done much lately to try to make Israel feel more secure.

I have a great deal of respect for the Iranian people, just none for any form of religious government, anywhere. My fervent hope is for the young people in Iran to throw their government out!

Whilst I appreciate your praise of young Iranians theres is nothing much lately coming from media that instills any confidence/ hope of the western government support for them other than which next US candidate is gonna drop a bigger bomb on Iran. ( thats to put it very mildly) so gainst that background you are faced with a very young population of IPAD and Iphone generation that despite all the appetite for western values stand firm behind an otherwise unpopular goverment should their lives be threatened by constant rhetorics of threats by foreign forces.

Edited by kactus

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The argument's utility is in it's absurdity. Rationally trying to discuss a hallucination is pointless.

Absolutely! But i still think the whole notion of such comparison is ludicurous to the point that when you see it pop up again and again i cant help but to roll the eyes...

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I feel the same about Irans government that I do about Canadas

Extreme, looney & out of control

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you are faced with a very young population of IPAD and Iphone generation that despite all the appetite for western values stand firm behind an otherwise unpopular goverment should their lives be threatened by constant rhetorics of threats by foreign forces.

I have seen this said so many times before, that an attack on Iran would solidify support amongst its people.

How does anyone know this? Is it not just an opinion? Wouldn't it be more likely that an underground "Arab Spring" movement might seize the opportunity to oust the mullahs?

Where is the proof of this statement? HOW could anyone prove this statement unless tested in reality?

Edited by Wild Bill

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Where is the proof of this statement? HOW could anyone prove this statement unless tested in reality?

Good question. Iran still resents the west for influencing a war between Iran and Iraq in the 1980s. I suspect that they have less trust in the West's motives for getting involved, as opposed to say Libyan outsiders.

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I have seen this said so many times before, that an attack on Iran would solidify support amongst its people.

How does anyone know this? Is it not just an opinion? Wouldn't it be more likely that an underground "Arab Spring" movement might seize the opportunity to oust the mullahs?

Where is the proof of this statement? HOW could anyone prove this statement unless tested in reality?

Oh this has been tested many many times before, and debated by philosophers for hundreds of years. Governments use the "enemy" to galvanize the populace around the government and it gives the government the excuse to round up dissidents in the name of "national security".

The very worst thing that could happen for the Iranian government is if the public realized all the anti-western rhetoric they have been fed for decades was all a bunch of horse shit. Any attack on our part would simply prove they were right.

Having said that you cant be 100% sure either way. Are dissidents in Iran well enough organized to wrestle power from the government in the wake of a limited bombing campaign? Seems highly unlikely to me. This is a fairly well organized regime thats been around for decades, has a relatively effective security apparatus etc. And they have a lot of support from some parts of the population as well.

I think the idea of regime change without a ground invasion is pretty wishful thinking.

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Israel and the United States are bigger threats to world peace than Iran. I certainly don't like the government in Iran, but it is up to the people in Iran to throw their own government in the trash.

If we are to talk about the danger to world peace just look at the fact that in the past 100 years or so the USA has invaded, bombed, and militarily occupied one country after another! The US war machine is the most dangerous one on the planet. The USA INVENTED the atomic bomb. The USA has more weapons of mass destruction than any other country on the planet!

And let's face it, Israel is a loose cannon, most likely to do anything at any moment. Israel is far crazier than Iran!

If Iran is to be denied the nuclear bomb than all countries on the planet should be denied the nuclear bomb as well! But unless the working class takes power of this whole planet that will not happen. Eventually, the warmongering bourgeoisie and their capitalist politicians will bring about World War III. And you can bet, the USA will be involved in World War III. The US war machine is the biggest threat to world peace on the planet.

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Death to America, eh?

:lol:

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Yes GH, it IS possible for Bud to be right! However, he would be right in the fashion that Neville Chamberlain could have been right. Or how unilateral disarmament might have worked if America had done so during the Cold War.

Hitler might NOT have waged war! The USSR might well have decided not to be aggressive!

Hitler DID wage war, and deserved what he got. Iran is NOT starting any way, nor do they have the capacity to start a war. What you are advocating for is perpetual war based on preemptive strikes to prevent someone from doing something that they MIGHT do in the future. The last CIA assessment is that Iran had not made the decision to go ahead with nuclear weapons.

This also sets a precedent at home as well. IF countries can get invaded for what they MIGHT do in the future, you and many others should be locked up for what you MIGHT do in the future. Guilty until proven innocent.

The difference is that when such approaches are wrong they are always FAR bloodier! Nobody picks on the BIG kid, or the one with a baseball bat! It's always the one who seems too weak to defend himself.

The USA under the guise of NATO and the UN have been going around the world with their big stick and smacking counties that cannot defend themsevles. Why have they left North Korea alone?? Right, no resources there, and they have a nuke.

Gee, if getting a nuke made countries back off from North Korea, I can see why Iran would want to try the same. Insurance.

What's more, things still come down to the cold hard fact that if people like Bud are wrong it is Israel who pays the price, NOT them!

As long as Israel pays the price all on their own. No need to bring the USA down with it. Because that will happen. Israel is all grown up now , they should be able to handle things on their own. If Iran threatens Israel, well, let Israel deal with it.

Israel could learn a thing or two from the US, maybe .. like go it alone.

You can suggest anything when you have no skin in the game yourself!

I'd rather not see another war .. but it IS going to happen. Iran is in no position to make a first strike. This I am very sure of.

All this is more replay of the same crap we saw in the lead up to the Iraq invasion. Unless we get another 9/11 (aka false flag attack .. .. sure call me whatever you want) ..... but even then, it would be suspicious. Hmmm another terror attack in the USA because people hate your freedoms?? AHAHAH. I've seen this movie before, and Hollywood loves remakes and sequals.

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Death to America, eh?

:lol:

No, but going into a state of stasis for awhile would be in order. A little time out so to speak.

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Sorry, but I have heard too many things from Ahmadinejad that are absolutely loopy to have any faith in the rationality of Iran's leadership.

Wow I never knew that you know how to spek Arabic/Iranian!

Good for you Wild!Good for you!

WWWTT

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Wow I never knew that you know how to spek Arabic/Iranian!

Good for you Wild!Good for you!

WWWTT

So what did Dinnerjacket really say?

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I have seen this said so many times before, that an attack on Iran would solidify support amongst its people.

How does anyone know this? Is it not just an opinion?

More than 60% of the population is under the age of 30. That is a fact! This young generation do not exactly have a recollection of IRAN/ Iraq war. That said the support of saddam in the eighties by the western governments to go into war with Iran is well documented.

Wouldn't it be more likely that an underground "Arab Spring" movement might seize the opportunity to oust the mullahs?

Not sure what this overused phrase to term "arab spring has anything to do with Iran. But since you mentioned opportunity to oust mullahs lets reflect on the infamous "green

movement" almost three years ago backed by CIA that didn't have any impact on "regime change". Why should it be any different this time?

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More than 60% of the population is under the age of 30. That is a fact! This young generation do not exactly have a recollection of IRAN/ Iraq war. That said the support of saddam in the eighties by the western governments to go into war with Iran is well documented.

Not sure what this overused phrase to term "arab spring has anything to do with Iran. But since you mentioned opportunity to oust mullahs lets reflect on the infamous "green

movement" almost three years ago backed by CIA that didn't have any impact on "regime change". Why should it be any different this time?

I don't know and I don't pretend to know! Just as I would never say that the population of Iran would automatically pull together and support the mullahs if someone attacked Iran.

After all, western media has no problem being distributed within Iran. I've no doubt that the people there are well aware that if Iran is attacked it would be because of the actions of their religious government.

At that point, do they still automatically support that government? They likely have other issues with their lack of freedoms, particularly with the younger demographic. They might well prefer to oust that government, removing the need for outside pressures and sanctions instantly and allowing more freedom within their own lives.

Others keep making that statement of the Iranian people banding around their government. It's up to them to prove that premise, not me!

Frankly, I don't think the premise has that much merit. I think it is just words to try to discourage outside attacks. The only people who would benefit would then be the mullahs.

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so i wonder why there are people who are still salivating at the chance for another war.

Why in your mind is the West always wrong? Who in their right mind wants a bunch of Iranian clerics to be able to go nuclear?

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