40 replies to this topic

[TheNewTeddy]

Thought maybe a thread on this might be useful.

Here are my poll-based predictions.

Virginia
Romney - 100% chance of winning


Vermont
Romney - 80%
Santorum - 20%


Tennessee
Santorum - 70%
Romney - 30%


Oklahoma
Santorum - 70%
Romney - 30%


Ohio
Santorum - 60%
Romney - 40%


Massachusetts
Romney - 100%


Georgia
Gingrich - 100%


Alaska
Romney - 25%
Santorum - 25%
Gingrich - 25%
Paul - 25%
(no polls)


Edit
With no polls I have to go with my gut with Alaska.

Romney - 40%
Paul - 40%
Santorum - 20%

Edited by TheNewTeddy, 05 March 2012 - 05:44 PM.

[j44]

No predictions per se from me but I'm looking at Tenn. And Ohio. I think Mitt can shut up at least some, if not most, of his critics if he wins some southern states and more of them if he wins some south and Ohio. I hope Newt loses Georgia so he backs out.

[Shady]

No predictions per se from me but I'm looking at Tenn. And Ohio. I think Mitt can shut up at least some, if not most, of his critics if he wins some southern states and more of them if he wins some south and Ohio. I hope Newt loses Georgia so he backs out.

I agree. Mitt could definitely win Ohio, albeit close. And he's only a couple of points back in Tennessee. He might squeak that one out too. Especially if the big surge for him nationally over the last few days is any indication. He's up by 16 in the latest national poll.

[punked]

Maybe Mitt wins tonight but he is broken now.

[-TSS-]

Is it even theoretically possible for Romney to get past the 50%-mark in the delgate count and therefore make sure of his nomination?

Edited by -TSS-, 06 March 2012 - 04:55 PM.

[bush_cheney2004]

Is it even theoretically possible for Romney to get past the 50%-mark in the delgate count and therefore make sure of his nomination?

No, but he could sure put the big hurt on the others. Obama did this to Clinton in 2008, all but mathematically eliminating Hillary from getting the nomination.

[j44]

Judas! Georgia has like 70 plus delegates?

[TheNewTeddy]

9pm update

Georgia, 35% reporting
Gingrich - 48.3%
Romney - 22.4%

Mass, 23% reporting
Romney - 71.6%
Santorum - 12.5%

Ohio, 7% reporting
Romney - 37.9%
Santorum - 37.8%

Oklahoma, 15% reporting
Santorum - 35.0%
Gingrich -27.2%
Romney - 26.7%

Tennesee, 6% reporting
Santorum - 43.0%
Romney - 28.2%

Vermont, 37% reporting
Romney - 40.2%
Paul - 25.5%

Virginia, 97% reporting
Romney - 59.2%
Paul - 40.8%

Alaska, 0% reporting
-
-

Idaho, 0% reporting
-
-

North Dakota, 0% reporting
-
-

Wyoming, 0% reporting
-
-

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012

[j44]

9pm update


Ohio, 7% reporting
Romney - 37.9%
Santorum - 37.8%

I know it is only 7% but that is frickin close.

[TheNewTeddy]

According to wikipedia, Wyoming already finished it's process, so wtf.

Romney - 39.0%
Santorum - 31.9%
Paul - 20.8%
Gingrich - 7.8%

No other updates from polling etc. Paul could do well in ND.

[TheNewTeddy]

I know it is only 7% but that is frickin close.

Right now we have 17% in, and it's 38.5% for Santorum for 36.5% for Romney.

Poll averaging still has Santorum winning.

[TheNewTeddy]

Ohio 24%
S-38.7
R-36.0

(I hope that's understandable)

ND 4%
S-52.4
P-21.1


WY 4%
R-50.6
S-49.4

(looks like a run-off)

[j44]

I think I just heard Santorum compare the fight for freedom against the Nazis to the fight for 'freedom' against Obama.

[TheNewTeddy]

So wait, Obama is a Black Nazi Muslin?

Also
Ohio 56%
S 38.1
R 36.5

ND 52%
S 39.7
P 27.1
R 25.0

[Battletoads]

So wait, Obama is a Black Nazi Muslin?

Also
Ohio 56%
S 38.1
R 36.5

ND 52%
S 39.7
P 27.1
R 25.0

Can I get a link to the source of your numbers?