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TheNewTeddy

Super Tuesday

41 posts in this topic

Thought maybe a thread on this might be useful.

Here are my poll-based predictions.

Virginia

Romney - 100% chance of winning

Vermont

Romney - 80%

Santorum - 20%

Tennessee

Santorum - 70%

Romney - 30%

Oklahoma

Santorum - 70%

Romney - 30%

Ohio

Santorum - 60%

Romney - 40%

Massachusetts

Romney - 100%

Georgia

Gingrich - 100%

Alaska

Romney - 25%

Santorum - 25%

Gingrich - 25%

Paul - 25%

(no polls)

Edit

With no polls I have to go with my gut with Alaska.

Romney - 40%

Paul - 40%

Santorum - 20%

Edited by TheNewTeddy

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No predictions per se from me but I'm looking at Tenn. And Ohio. I think Mitt can shut up at least some, if not most, of his critics if he wins some southern states and more of them if he wins some south and Ohio. I hope Newt loses Georgia so he backs out.

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No predictions per se from me but I'm looking at Tenn. And Ohio. I think Mitt can shut up at least some, if not most, of his critics if he wins some southern states and more of them if he wins some south and Ohio. I hope Newt loses Georgia so he backs out.

I agree. Mitt could definitely win Ohio, albeit close. And he's only a couple of points back in Tennessee. He might squeak that one out too. Especially if the big surge for him nationally over the last few days is any indication. He's up by 16 in the latest national poll.

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Is it even theoretically possible for Romney to get past the 50%-mark in the delgate count and therefore make sure of his nomination?

Edited by -TSS-

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Is it even theoretically possible for Romney to get past the 50%-mark in the delgate count and therefore make sure of his nomination?

No, but he could sure put the big hurt on the others. Obama did this to Clinton in 2008, all but mathematically eliminating Hillary from getting the nomination.

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9pm update

Georgia, 35% reporting

Gingrich - 48.3%

Romney - 22.4%

Mass, 23% reporting

Romney - 71.6%

Santorum - 12.5%

Ohio, 7% reporting

Romney - 37.9%

Santorum - 37.8%

Oklahoma, 15% reporting

Santorum - 35.0%

Gingrich -27.2%

Romney - 26.7%

Tennesee, 6% reporting

Santorum - 43.0%

Romney - 28.2%

Vermont, 37% reporting

Romney - 40.2%

Paul - 25.5%

Virginia, 97% reporting

Romney - 59.2%

Paul - 40.8%

Alaska, 0% reporting

-

-

Idaho, 0% reporting

-

-

North Dakota, 0% reporting

-

-

Wyoming, 0% reporting

-

-

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012

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9pm update

Ohio, 7% reporting

Romney - 37.9%

Santorum - 37.8%

I know it is only 7% but that is frickin close.

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According to wikipedia, Wyoming already finished it's process, so wtf.

Romney - 39.0%

Santorum - 31.9%

Paul - 20.8%

Gingrich - 7.8%

No other updates from polling etc. Paul could do well in ND.

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I know it is only 7% but that is frickin close.

Right now we have 17% in, and it's 38.5% for Santorum for 36.5% for Romney.

Poll averaging still has Santorum winning.

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Ohio 24%

S-38.7

R-36.0

(I hope that's understandable)

ND 4%

S-52.4

P-21.1

WY 4%

R-50.6

S-49.4

(looks like a run-off)

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I think I just heard Santorum compare the fight for freedom against the Nazis to the fight for 'freedom' against Obama. :blink:

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So wait, Obama is a Black Nazi Muslin?

Also

Ohio 56%

S 38.1

R 36.5

ND 52%

S 39.7

P 27.1

R 25.0

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So wait, Obama is a Black Nazi Muslin?

Also

Ohio 56%

S 38.1

R 36.5

ND 52%

S 39.7

P 27.1

R 25.0

Can I get a link to the source of your numbers?

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Santorum shouldn't be winning any of the states

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So wait, Obama is a Black Nazi Muslin?

Black Nazi KENYAN Muslim.

Who wants to jump in with thoughts on what it will mean if Sweater Vest wins Ohio?

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Wha?

because he is insane

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because he is insane

I think he is doing great considering that his campaign is dwarfed by Romney's in money and establishment support. He is also showing that he is a more skilled politician than Romney...at least in some ways....although that isn't that difficult at times.

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Virginia

All votes are counted. Romney has won, 59.5% to 40.5% for Paul.

Wyoming

Wont finish counting until the end of the week.

Massachusetts

I do not think there are enough outstanding votes, period, for anyone to overtake Romney.

Georgia

There *may* mathematically be just enough outstanding votes to overtake Gingrich, but it wont happen.

North Dakota

Santorum has been ahead 40-25-25 all night. With 63% counted I'm going to call this one for him.

Undecided

Idaho

Romney is doing well but it's still early.

Alaska

4 way tie at 0 votes each.

Ohio

The race to watch. A Romney win could boost his campaign. 75% of ballots counted. Santorum holds a narrow 0.7% lead at 348K votes to Romney's 342K votes. Gingrich is far behind in 3rd.

Edit - Margin changed while posting.

Now the gap is 0.3%, Santorum at 360K and Romney at 357K

Edited by TheNewTeddy

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I think he is doing great considering that his campaign is dwarfed by Romney's in money and establishment support. He is also showing that he is a more skilled politician than Romney...at least in some ways....although that isn't that difficult at times.

His political views are insane and will scare away millions of potential voters

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