169 replies to this topic

[August1991]

Alot can happen before the next federal election in 2015. And even a year or so ago, I would never have predicted the NDP success in Quebec in May 2011. Even after the election, I predicted that the NDP Quebec caucus (Vegas and all) would never be re-elected.

Now, with Thomas Mulcair, I'm not so sure. The NDP is viable in BC, Quebec and the Maritimes. It is truly a federal party.

Pierre Trudeau joined first the federal CCF/NDP and switched to the Liberals simply because the party offered a route to power. With Mulcair and in Quebec, given his various statements and positions and style, Justin Trudeau would be more at home in the NDP than in the federal Liberal Party.

In part because of the Internet, I think there is more fluidity in party allegiance. Mulcair switched from the Liberals. Charest switched from the PCs. Legault created the CAQ. The Wildrose appears to be a new version of the Lougheed Albertan PC party in 1971.

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I suspect that Mulcair is sending invitation signals to Trudeau to cross the aisle. If Trudeau fils crosses, I think NDP rank-and-file members will probably view this switch in a favourable light. (If Denis Coderre wanted to join the federal NDP, it would be another question but Coderre seems to want to leave the federal Liberals and run for mayor in Montreal).

Nevertheless, if Justin Trudeau crosses the aisle, it would signal the end of the federal Liberal Party.

Mulcair and Trudeau are on similar wavelengths and Trudeau's father was at first a CCF/NDPer. Under Mulcair, the NDP is clearly federalist and for Justin (like his father), this is is a key point. Justin surely understands that the NDP is capable of defeating the Bloc.

I don't think that if Justin Trudeau sits in the NDP caucus it will hurt the NDP in Quebec in a federal election, but it will make the NDP very strong in Ontario, the Maritimes and some ridings in the Prairies.

Edited by August1991, 09 April 2012 - 12:58 AM.

[Moonlight Graham]

He's not ready to be leader yet so it's pointless for him in a way.

[August1991]

He's not ready to be leader yet so it's pointless for him in a way.

WTF?

[stopstaaron]

Justin wants to raise his family before he's ready to run for leadership

it is not going to happen

Edited by stopstaaron, 08 April 2012 - 10:34 PM.

[August1991]

Justin wants to raise his family before he's ready to run for leadership

it is not going to happen

The question is not whether Justin Trudeau will be leader of a political party. The question is whether he sits in the federal NDP caucus. I think there's a chance that he will cross the aisle, and sit as a federal NDP MP.

1. Under Mulcair, the NDP is federalist and can defeat the Bloc in Quebec.

2. Justin and Mulcair are on the same policy wavelength - in French and English Canada.

3. As you point out, Justin has no desire to be leader of any party now. I suspect that, to borrow a Henny Youngman/Woody Allen joke, he would be happy to be in a party with Mulcair as a leader.

4. His father first entered federal politics in the CCF/NDP.

5. Like his Mom, Justin's a flake. He'll go for the switch.

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The better question is maybe to ask whether Mulcair would accept Justin as a member of his caucus.

I suspect that, if Trudeau ran as an NDP candidate, the federal NDP may lose votes in Quebec but it would not lose seats. And the federal NDP would gain far more seats in "vote rich" Ontario.

Edited by August1991, 08 April 2012 - 11:17 PM.

[Tilter]

The question is not whether Justin Trudeau will be leader of a political party. The question is whether he sits in the federal NDP caucus. I think there's a chance that he will cross the aisle, and sit as a federal NDP MP.

1. Under Mulcair, the NDP is federalist and can defeat the Bloc in Quebec.

2. Justin and Mulcair are on the same policy wavelength - in French and English Canada.

3. As you point out, Justin has no desire to be leader of any party now. I suspect that, to borrow a Henny Youngman/Woody Allen joke, he would be happy to be in a party with Mulcair as a leader.

4. His father first entered federal politics in the CCF/NDP.

5. Like his Mom, Justin's a flake. He'll go for the switch.

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The better question is maybe to ask whether Mulcair would accept Justin as a member of his caucus.

I suspect that, if Trudeau ran as an NDP candidate, the federal NDP may lose votes in Quebec but it would not lose seats. And the federal NDP would gain far more seats in "vote rich" Ontario.

After seeing the grand showing Rae/NDP made provincially I don't see the great rush to get the Fed NDP hook into Ontario anytime soon, but then I remember our last "erection" putting McPremier back at the helm, even weakly. Maybe after the budget is killed the people will again reject the NDP & give Torys another try.

[Newfoundlander]

He often sounds like a New Democrat.

Edited by Newfoundlander, 09 April 2012 - 07:43 AM.

[punked]

He's not ready to be leader yet so it's pointless for him in a way.

NDP leaders often last 8-10 year cycles, while the Liberals change leaders often unless that leader delivers the big office. This line of thinking would only boost Trudeau if he did want to be PM one day. He would kill the Liberals and be in a party that wont select a leader again until his family is older.

[Wild Bill]

Nevertheless, if Justin Trudeau crosses the aisle, it would signal the end of the federal Liberal Party.

Maybe you're right August but it would be just as dangerous for the NDP!

Like it or not, the NDP has long been thought of as a party that is not fiscally responsible, at least in Ontario. True, there have been NDP provincial governments that were sensible but the federal NDP has never benefited from any comparison.

Let's suppose that young Trudeau does indeed cross the floor. The Liberal party becomes a lost orphan and let's further suppose that the NDP wins power!

The only way the federal NDP could garner enough votes to displace the Tories is if they appeared to have modernized and become much more realistic. No more blaming everything on business, no more thinking they can solve unemployment by increasing the public sector workforce while allowing real jobs from industry to flee the country and no more increasing welfare doles with no thought about how to pay for it.

They had better get it right the first time! The NDP would have only one chance to prove they are up to the job! If they screw it up or even if economic things happen that were not their fault but still hurt the average Canadian much of their new found support would drop them like a hot potato!

This might not be fair but I truly think it is human nature. The federal NDP has a bit of a historical rep to bear with many voters. It didn't hurt them in Quebec last time because Quebecers didn't know anything about them anyways! Still, they are well known in the rest of Canada and to win power they absolutely HAVE to take some Tory support!

So that demographic that would put them over the top would be very wary of having made a mistake. Electing Mulcair as leader went a long way to encouraging confidence with such voters. If they governed in an old-style bash-the-rich Peggy Nash fashion and the economy tanked then next election and those for many terms afterward, they would be toast!

Hopefully for the NDP their leadership understands this and act accordingly. Canada would be better served with a return to a 2 party system with clear differences between the choices. The Liberals as yet have shown no signs of getting their act together. A collapse of NDP support would be the best shot in the arm they could hope for!

[fellowtraveller]

I think there's a chance that he will cross the aisle, and sit as a federal NDP MP.

The only possible reason Trudeau would join the NDP is if they were forming a govt and he was at minimum Deputy PM with the promise of the big chair soon after.
Mulcair can recognize that Trudeau just is not smart enough to manage either job, and is not a huge asset in a province that essentially loathed his father.. In any case, Trudeau has a gravy position in the Liberal caucus as long as he wishes, so there is no reason for him to leave one for the other.
Non starter from both sides.

[punked]

The only possible reason Trudeau would join the NDP is if they were forming a govt and he was at minimum Deputy PM with the promise of the big chair soon after.
Mulcair can recognize that Trudeau just is not smart enough to manage either job, and is not a huge asset in a province that essentially loathed his father.. In any case, Trudeau has a gravy position in the Liberal caucus as long as he wishes, so there is no reason for him to leave one for the other.
Non starter from both sides.

Depends how low Liberal poll numbers get doesn't it? If they drop in Quebec any more every Liberal in Quebec will lose their seat. You can't win seats in a province by pulling in 7-9% of the vote. They are sitting at 10% right now that is 5% drop from the election where they got most their vote in seats they won or came close to winning. Heck if they get any lower Dion might switch as well the NDP has talked to him many times about considering it.

Edited by punked, 09 April 2012 - 08:18 AM.

[stopstaaron]

After seeing the grand showing Rae/NDP made provincially I don't see the great rush to get the Fed NDP hook into Ontario anytime soon, but then I remember our last "erection" putting McPremier back at the helm, even weakly. Maybe after the budget is killed the people will again reject the NDP & give Torys another try.

people dislike hudak more than mcguinty

[fellowtraveller]

Depends how low Liberal poll numbers get doesn't it? If they drop in Quebec any more every Liberal in Quebec will lose their seat. You can't win seats in a province by pulling in 7-9% of the vote. They are sitting at 10% right now that is 5% drop from the election where they got most their vote in seats they won or came close to winning. Heck if they get any lower Dion might switch as well the NDP has talked to him many times about considering it.

No, poll numbers don't win or lose seats. Candidates win or lose seats.
You are dead wrong about 7-9% not winning seats of course, look at E. May(7%)and Ralph Goodale(8%) for recent examples. Even Linda Duncan who won her seat with the NDP getting 12% in 2008......
Why would anybody cross the floor to join a party that is likely to plummet in their seat count next election? What possible reason would he have for risking what has been a Liberal riding(except once) for about 50 years? Trudeau is already a semi-iconic player with the Liberals, what would he gain by becoming an untrustworthy minnow in the NDP?

The future of the NDP in Quebec depends on the party delivering the gravy to the province while in Opposition for the next three years. Has Mulcair explained how he plans to actually do this? (Hint: just whining won't be enough).

[punked]

No, poll numbers don't win or lose seats. Candidates win or lose seats.
You are dead wrong about 7-9% not winning seats of course, look at E. May(7%)and Ralph Goodale(8%) for recent examples. Even Linda Duncan who won her seat with the NDP getting 12% in 2008......
Why would anybody cross the floor to join a party that is likely to plummet in their seat count next election? What possible reason would he have for risking what has been a Liberal riding(except once) for about 50 years? Trudeau is already a semi-iconic player with the Liberals, what would he gain by becoming an untrustworthy minnow in the NDP?

The future of the NDP in Quebec depends on the party delivering the gravy to the province while in Opposition for the next three years. Has Mulcair explained how he plans to actually do this? (Hint: just whining won't be enough).

It depends on the polls doesn't it? Right now in if the NDP have the poll numbers they have today and the Liberals have theirs, the Liberals lose seats the NDP might gain, might hold might lose one or two. The Liberals only have 7 seats and not matter what you say if the Liberals vote is cut in half from their 2011 totals they lose almost all 7 of those seats.

[cybercoma]

Given his musings on social media, I would say the NDP is a better fit for Trudeau; however, his father's legacy in the Liberal Party, regardless of where he was before that, should keep him firmly planted there. It would be considered one of the biggest stabs in the back ever if he switched.