Now, with Thomas Mulcair, I'm not so sure. The NDP is viable in BC, Quebec and the Maritimes. It is truly a federal party.
Pierre Trudeau joined first the federal CCF/NDP and switched to the Liberals simply because the party offered a route to power. With Mulcair and in Quebec, given his various statements and positions and style, Justin Trudeau would be more at home in the NDP than in the federal Liberal Party.
In part because of the Internet, I think there is more fluidity in party allegiance. Mulcair switched from the Liberals. Charest switched from the PCs. Legault created the CAQ. The Wildrose appears to be a new version of the Lougheed Albertan PC party in 1971.
I suspect that Mulcair is sending invitation signals to Trudeau to cross the aisle. If Trudeau fils crosses, I think NDP rank-and-file members will probably view this switch in a favourable light. (If Denis Coderre wanted to join the federal NDP, it would be another question but Coderre seems to want to leave the federal Liberals and run for mayor in Montreal).
Nevertheless, if Justin Trudeau crosses the aisle, it would signal the end of the federal Liberal Party.
Mulcair and Trudeau are on similar wavelengths and Trudeau's father was at first a CCF/NDPer. Under Mulcair, the NDP is clearly federalist and for Justin (like his father), this is is a key point. Justin surely understands that the NDP is capable of defeating the Bloc.
I don't think that if Justin Trudeau sits in the NDP caucus it will hurt the NDP in Quebec in a federal election, but it will make the NDP very strong in Ontario, the Maritimes and some ridings in the Prairies.
Edited by August1991, 09 April 2012 - 12:58 AM.