60 replies to this topic

[Newfoundlander]

Seeing there was a thread for Toronto Danforth I figured the likely by-election in Etobicoke Centre deserved a thread too, especially considering how rare the cause of it is.

According to tweets by Forum Research the Liberals have a 10 point lead in the riding, though they've not given the actual numbers. Last year the NDP were a distant third but like almost everywhere their percentage of the vote increased a fair bit. Will Mulcair and the NDP target this riding and put in a lot of resources to try and win the riding, or will they let the Liberals and Conservatives duke it out? Seeing it's unlikely the NDP could actually win what's a better scenario for them, a Liberal win or a Conservative win? The reason I'm brining the NDP up is because I think their campaign could be the deciding factor for who wins.

[punked]

Seeing there was a thread for Toronto Danforth I figured the likely by-election in Etobicoke Centre deserved a thread too, especially considering how rare the cause of it is.

According to tweets by Forum Research the Liberals have a 10 point lead in the riding, though they've not given the actual numbers. Last year the NDP were a distant third but like almost everywhere their percentage of the vote increased a fair bit. Will Mulcair and the NDP target this riding and put in a lot of resources to try and win the riding, or will they let the Liberals and Conservatives duke it out? Seeing it's unlikely the NDP could actually win what's a better scenario for them, a Liberal win or a Conservative win? The reason I'm brining the NDP up is because I think their campaign could be the deciding factor for who wins.

The election isn't going to happen. The last Liberal majority appointment to the Supreme court just retired, now we will have a Harper Majority court, these election results will be upheld.

[Newfoundlander]

The election isn't going to happen. The last Liberal majority appointment to the Supreme court just retired, now we will have a Harper Majority court, these election results will be upheld.

[punked]

Just think about it this is going to be fast tracked to the court.

Edited by punked, 19 May 2012 - 09:16 AM.

[Newfoundlander]

Just think about it this is going to be fast tracked to the court.

Well we don't even know if the Conservatives will appeal the ruling, I can't see why they wouldn't but the fact that it is the fault of Elections Canada and not their campaign's is one reason to believe they may not, plus I don't think a judge is that stupid to put their respect on the line because they don't want the Conservatives to face a by-election.

[punked]

Well we don't even know if the Conservatives will appeal the ruling, I can't see why they wouldn't but the fact that it is the fault of Elections Canada and not their campaign's is one reason to believe they may not, plus I don't think a judge is that stupid to put their respect on the line because they don't want the Conservatives to face a by-election.

We will have to wait and see but like I said think about it.

[Newfoundlander]

We will have to wait and see but like I said think about it.

I don't see any reason why if this judge did his job why another judge would dismiss it completely just because they were appointed by Harper. If the Conservatives appeal it's because they know the can stretch this out for probably a couple of years, which would cost the Liberals a lot of money.

[Rick]

I don't see any reason why if this judge did his job why another judge would dismiss it completely just because they were appointed by Harper. If the Conservatives appeal it's because they know the can stretch this out for probably a couple of years, which would cost the Liberals a lot of money.

When the Harper government appeals this it will be because they know that A) if there was a by-election they won't be able to rig it again and they will lose that seat and B ) their appointed lackeys in the SC will side with them and quash any dissenting lower court judge's opinion.

While costing the taxpayers and Liberals money...

Edited by Rick, 19 May 2012 - 10:11 AM.

[madmax]

My Prediction

Conservatives will retain the seat in a By Election
Liberals will come up short
NDP will unlikely be competitive based on previous results, this is a CPC/LPC swing riding..
Voter Turnout will be 16,000 CON,13000, Lib, 4000 NDP...

Finally I could be 100% wrong...

Edited by madmax, 19 May 2012 - 11:02 AM.

[punked]

I don't see any reason why if this judge did his job why another judge would dismiss it completely just because they were appointed by Harper. If the Conservatives appeal it's because they know the can stretch this out for probably a couple of years, which would cost the Liberals a lot of money.

Because of Politics that is why.

[Rick]

If there is a by-election, as much as I'd like the NDP to win the seat, the Liberals will take the riding handily as folks have seen enough of the real Harper since the election.

[Newfoundlander]

My Prediction

Conservatives will retain the seat in a By Election
Liberals will come up short
NDP will unlikely be competitive based on previous results, this is a CPC/LPC swing riding..
Voter Turnout will be 16,000 CON,13000, Lib, 4000 NDP...

Finally I could be 100% wrong...

Well Forum Research has a 10 point lead for Liberals, which could be totally wrong, but unless something major happens I doubt the Liberals would finish 9,000 votes behind the Conservatives, especially with all the recent screwups for the government.

[punked]

Well Forum Research has a 10 point lead for Liberals, which could be totally wrong, but unless something major happens I doubt the Liberals would finish 9,000 votes behind the Conservatives, especially with all the recent screwups for the government.

In Toronto I expect nothing less.

[madmax]

Well Forum Research has a 10 point lead for Liberals, which could be totally wrong, but unless something major happens I doubt the Liberals would finish 9,000 votes behind the Conservatives, especially with all the recent screwups for the government.

Erm... read that again, I have them finish 3000 back...with my stab in the dark

[Newfoundlander]

Erm... read that again, I have them finish 3000 back...with my stab in the dark

The way you have it wrote is confusing.