14 replies to this topic

[TheNewTeddy]

I typed this in to google and here are the top 5 news stories it spit out for me.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/story/2012/06/12/nb-rothesay-byelection-patronage-1047.html
http://www.cbc.ca/informationmorningsaintjohn/2012/06/19/rothesay-byelection-candidates-liberal-john-wilcox/
http://www.cbc.ca/shift/2012/06/19/blaney-appointment-an-issue-in-rothesay-by-election/
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/story/2012/06/08/nb-rothesay-byelection-candidates-318.html
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/story/2012/06/18/nb-blaney-appointment-cost-flemming-patronage.html

I've not read any of them because I know what's going on, but to give background to those who do not.


In short:
The PC government of NB has appointed one of it's members to something or something and it cost money or something. That's not important. What is important is that the NDP leader has decided to run here; here in this suburban community that the NDP has never been competitive in.

Why is that important?

He might win.

"WHAT!?" you say

No it's true.

http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2014
The NDP is polling well provincially
And federally too
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/42nd_Canadian_federal_election#Opinion_polls
http://www.threehundredeight.com/ (for easily visible regional breakdowns)

The NDP's vote is 40% across the Atlantic, and I can assure you, all these votes are not all magically stacked in Nova Scotia. Being at 40% across the Atlantic would put the NDP at near 40% in New Brunswick. I can run you though the math if you have a problem with this statement. It's the same math I used to predict 10 Tories in Quebec in 2006 when everyone else said more than 6 was insanity, and, the same math I used to predict the NDP with over 50 seats in Quebec last election when people said "they don't have a base! 10 at most!"

The question, however, remains as it weather or not Dominic Cardy, the NB NDP leader, can indeed win this seat. Rothesay is not very pro NDP
http://blunt-objects.blogspot.ca/2012/06/better-know-provincial-electoral.html
This bedroom suburb in fact lends itself much better to Tory voters.

With the Federal NDP at 40% in the province, and the provincial NDP at 20%, if Cardy can win, he could take the provincial party to first in the polls.


The by-election is tomorrow night. June 25th.

Edited by TheNewTeddy, 24 June 2012 - 01:07 AM.

[TheNewTeddy]

http://www.gnb.ca/el...25results-e.asp

Cardy is running Second nearly tied with the Liberals, and quite a distance back from the Tories, who are cruising to victory.

This is a "tactical error" on the part of the NDP for running. Or put another way: Cardy was stupid for falling for the Lib/PC demands he run here, because now he looks like an idiot.

[Newfoundlander]

Cardy didn't come off to good here by the looks of it. I guess New Democrats will just say that this isn't his riding and the NDP didn't have roots here and blah blah blah...

[punked]

Don't talk big game if you don't know you are going to win.

[Newfoundlander]

Don't talk big game if you don't know you are going to win.

Huh?

[punked]

Huh?

The NDP brought up expectations so high they had to win to beat them.

[Newfoundlander]

The NDP brought up expectations so high they had to win to beat them.

I never followed the race much but from what I had seen I thought he had a good shot at winning. Could definitely hurt NDP momentum there, though they still made big gains.

[PIK]

I typed this in to google and here are the top 5 news stories it spit out for me.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/story/2012/06/12/nb-rothesay-byelection-patronage-1047.html
http://www.cbc.ca/informationmorningsaintjohn/2012/06/19/rothesay-byelection-candidates-liberal-john-wilcox/
http://www.cbc.ca/shift/2012/06/19/blaney-appointment-an-issue-in-rothesay-by-election/
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/story/2012/06/08/nb-rothesay-byelection-candidates-318.html
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/story/2012/06/18/nb-blaney-appointment-cost-flemming-patronage.html

I've not read any of them because I know what's going on, but to give background to those who do not.


In short:
The PC government of NB has appointed one of it's members to something or something and it cost money or something. That's not important. What is important is that the NDP leader has decided to run here; here in this suburban community that the NDP has never been competitive in.

Why is that important?

He might win.

"WHAT!?" you say

No it's true.

http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2014
The NDP is polling well provincially
And federally too
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/42nd_Canadian_federal_election#Opinion_polls
http://www.threehundredeight.com/ (for easily visible regional breakdowns)

The NDP's vote is 40% across the Atlantic, and I can assure you, all these votes are not all magically stacked in Nova Scotia. Being at 40% across the Atlantic would put the NDP at near 40% in New Brunswick. I can run you though the math if you have a problem with this statement. It's the same math I used to predict 10 Tories in Quebec in 2006 when everyone else said more than 6 was insanity, and, the same math I used to predict the NDP with over 50 seats in Quebec last election when people said "they don't have a base! 10 at most!"

The question, however, remains as it weather or not Dominic Cardy, the NB NDP leader, can indeed win this seat. Rothesay is not very pro NDP
http://blunt-objects.blogspot.ca/2012/06/better-know-provincial-electoral.html
This bedroom suburb in fact lends itself much better to Tory voters.

With the Federal NDP at 40% in the province, and the provincial NDP at 20%, if Cardy can win, he could take the provincial party to first in the polls.


The by-election is tomorrow night. June 25th.

We will see how the NDP federal numbers hold up when mulcair says he is going to cancel the ship building contracts. I know he has not said anything but I am sure he will be against it.

[cybercoma]

The PC's won the seat with less than 50% of the vote this time, when last election they had 58% of the vote there. The NDP significantly increased its share of the vote, although they came in third. Rothesay is one of the wealthiest ridings in NB, so it's hardly surprising that it's still in Conservative hands.

[TheNewTeddy]

Godin should run for the provincial leadership, he could actually win the province. The federal NDP is strong enough to find some random to hold his riding, but the provincial NDP needs a strong hand at the top to win.

[cybercoma]

Godin should run for the provincial leadership, he could actually win the province. The federal NDP is strong enough to find some random to hold his riding, but the provincial NDP needs a strong hand at the top to win.

Dominic Cardy is one of the best leaders the NDP has ever had in this province. He's a solid social democrat, ready to modernize the party. Cardy's the guy to beat. The problem in Rothesay is that it's a solid Conservative riding. The hit they took is telling because no one expected them to actually lose the riding. Their drop in support doesn't bode well for them in the next provincial election. Moreover, Cardy's not from Rothesay and I believe that hurt him.

[TheNewTeddy]

Dominic Cardy is one of the best leaders the NDP has ever had in this province. He's a solid social democrat, ready to modernize the party. Cardy's the guy to beat. The problem in Rothesay is that it's a solid Conservative riding. The hit they took is telling because no one expected them to actually lose the riding. Their drop in support doesn't bode well for them in the next provincial election. Moreover, Cardy's not from Rothesay and I believe that hurt him.

You make 3 great points, which are all true.

>Dominic Cardy is one of the best leaders the NDP has ever had in this province.
>He's a solid social democrat, ready to modernize the party.
>Cardy's the guy to beat.

But fail to realize this.

>Cardy did not have to run. He did. He chose to run in a place he knew he could not win. He made a foolish decision and this shows he, despite being one of the best leaders, despite being a modernizer, a social democrat, and the 'guy to beat', that despite all of that, he has 0 political instinct.

[cybercoma]

I wouldn't say he knew he couldn't win. Some of the polling had the NDP in the lead in the riding before the election. Polling, as of late, has proven extremely unreliable however.

[socialist]

I wouldn't say he knew he couldn't win. Some of the polling had the NDP in the lead in the riding before the election. Polling, as of late, has proven extremely unreliable however.

lets hope there aren't any dirty tricks by the cpc like the robocalls SCANDAL.

[cybercoma]

lets hope there aren't any dirty tricks by the cpc like the robocalls SCANDAL.

It's the PC party at the provincial level. Even though Alward is working overtime for a patronage appointment methinks.