I've not read any of them because I know what's going on, but to give background to those who do not.
The PC government of NB has appointed one of it's members to something or something and it cost money or something. That's not important. What is important is that the NDP leader has decided to run here; here in this suburban community that the NDP has never been competitive in.
Why is that important?
He might win.
"WHAT!?" you say
No it's true.
The NDP is polling well provincially
And federally too
http://www.threehundredeight.com/ (for easily visible regional breakdowns)
The NDP's vote is 40% across the Atlantic, and I can assure you, all these votes are not all magically stacked in Nova Scotia. Being at 40% across the Atlantic would put the NDP at near 40% in New Brunswick. I can run you though the math if you have a problem with this statement. It's the same math I used to predict 10 Tories in Quebec in 2006 when everyone else said more than 6 was insanity, and, the same math I used to predict the NDP with over 50 seats in Quebec last election when people said "they don't have a base! 10 at most!"
The question, however, remains as it weather or not Dominic Cardy, the NB NDP leader, can indeed win this seat. Rothesay is not very pro NDP
This bedroom suburb in fact lends itself much better to Tory voters.
With the Federal NDP at 40% in the province, and the provincial NDP at 20%, if Cardy can win, he could take the provincial party to first in the polls.
The by-election is tomorrow night. June 25th.
Edited by TheNewTeddy, 24 June 2012 - 01:07 AM.