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Current Election Predictions (Week Five)

democraticSPACE.com

democraticSPACE.com explores the physical, historical, social, legal, and economic factors that have made today’s urban spaces. It is produced by Gregory Morrow, a full-time faculty member of the Department of Urban Planning at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). The website has several focuses, including Canadian politics, American politics, architecture, and urban planning and design.

Seat Projection Methodology: democraticSPACE.com projects seat totals for each political party based on changes in their popular support from the previous federal election. The model calculates changes in party support between the last federal election and current polling data, applies the changes to the previous electoral result of each federal riding, and uses the results to predict how many seats each political party will win in the upcoming election. democraticSPACE.com adjusts its projections to account for variances between provinces and sub-provincial regions, as well as for candidates (such as the presence of a star candidate in a particular riding).

For more information on democraticSPACE.com’s seat projection methodology:

• democraticSPACE.com: How the Model Works (PDF)

jord.ca

Jord.ca runs an ongoing seat forecaster for Canadian federal elections. The website was inspired by that of election-vote.com, which worked on the 2004 United States election.

Seat Projection Methodology: jord.ca projects seat totals for each political party using the University of British Columbia’s Election Stock Market Forecaster, developed by Professor Werner Antweiler. This forecaster bases its prediction on calculations of the probability with which a voter of a particular party will vote for the same or another party in the upcoming election. The model applies these probabilities to previous election results in order to predict the outcome of the upcoming election. In applying the UBC forecaster, jord.ca makes adjustments to account for unique local circumstances in ridings, such as the presence of weak or strong candidates or the prevailing local issues.

For more information on jord.ca’s seat projection methodology:

• jord.ca: FAQ
• University of British Columbia: UBC-ESM Election Forecaster

Election Prediction Project

The Election Prediction Project provides seat predictions for federal and provincial elections in Canada. In addition to overall election results, the website also provides district-by-district predictions. The Election Prediction Project is a non-profit initiative operated by volunteer effort.

Seat Prediction Methodology: The Election Prediction Project attempts to predict the overall result of elections through by predicting the results of individual electoral districts. It does so by soliciting information and opinion submission from the general public prior to an election. Submissions are processed and evaluated by a panel and, then, are used for predicting the election outcome of individual electoral districts. The evaluation process is completely subjective, although certain criteria, such as integrity and objectivity of the source, as considered.

For more information on the Election Prediction Project’s seat projection methodology:

• Election Prediction Project: Introduction to Methodology

UBC Election Stock Market

The University of British Columbia Election Stock Market is an online financial market for trading contracts based on the outcome of federal and provincial elections. The purposes of the market are teaching and research. Participants learn first hand about the operation of financial markets while, at the same time, becoming better informed about election processes. As a research project, the market generates insight into trader behavior. Participation in the market is open to all and involves real money.

Seat Prediction Methodology: The Election Stock Market uses an election forecaster developed by Professor Werner Antweiler. This forecaster bases its prediction on calculations of the probability with which a voter of a particular party will vote for the same or another party in the upcoming election. The model applies these probabilities to previous election results in order to predict the outcome of the upcoming election.. The matrix is applied to all electoral districts identically, and does not account for any unique regional, provincial, or local factors.

For more information on the Election Stock Market’s seat projection methodology:

• UBC Election Stock Market: Election Forecasting

Trendlines

Trendlines provides Canadian news, opinions, and research in the fields of science and climate, economics and markets, and politics. The website provides election predictions for Canadian and American elections. Predictions for Canadian federal elections are based on patterns and trends in current polling data. 

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This page was last modified: August 10, 2007