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Harold Jansen - Week Five Results
Bloc QuebecoisThe Bloc is basically running a steady campaign, with no real gaffes. On the other hand, they’ve done little to light much of a fire under voters. They mostly are trying to keep the spotlight on Liberal corruption and hope that they benefit. They’ve been lucky that the Liberals have continued to provide them with so much material. The one major thing that may come back to haunt Duceppe is that the much hyped goal of winning a majority of the vote in Quebec may dissipate, with the surprising rise of Conservative support in Quebec. Conservative PartyThe Conservatives haven’t been generating quite as many headlines as before Christmas (largely because the Liberals are doing better), but continue a professional, smart campaign with centrist policies. Harper is looking relaxed and confident without being confident. In other words, he’s looking very prime ministerial. He needs to stay that way during the debate. The Conservatives will face a ferocious attack on policy grounds (which we’ve seen on taxes already) and they need to be prepared. I don’t think they’re effectively countering the easy to understand Liberal charge that the Conservatives would be reversing a tax cut as one of their first acts in office. I also think the Conservatives need to prepare themselves for increasing scrutiny of how exactly a Conservative minority government would actually govern. Liberal PartyI think we need to distinguish between the actual Liberal campaign and the outside events. The RCMP investigation into income trust revelations are horrific timing for the party, but not the campaign’s fault per se. I thought the Liberal campaign showed a bit more strength in the last week with some long-awaited policy announcements. At least they are trying to present some positive ideas and policies instead of running a fear-based campaign against Harper, a candidate voters no longer find so scary. I also thought the Liberal counterattack that the Conservatives will cancel the Liberal tax cut to implement their GST plan was pretty effective and one that Martin should try to drive home in the debate. The threat that the Conservatives will drive up a deficit allows the Liberals to link the Conservatives not only to the Brian Mulroney past, but also to George W. Bush, if they want to. There are two strategic problems underlying the Liberal campaign, though. The first is that they have been trying to pitch this as a difference in Canadian values, but many of the Liberal policies (most notably wait times, the immigration landing fee) are almost exactly the same as the Conservative plan. The second is that the Liberals are trying to pitch themselves as agents for change (to try to blunt the “it’s time for a change” mood in the electorate) at the same time as they try to promote their record. The leaders’ debate provides a critical opportunity for Martin to get back in the game. New Democratic PartyThe NDP campaign has relentlessly gone after the Liberals and have probably done their part to contribute to the Liberal slide in the polls. In the last few weeks, the party has been more skilfully positioning themselves for holding the balance of power. The NDP now faces a potential problem: the Conservative lead creates the conditions for a “stop Harper” strategic vote campaign. Past Political Party Grades
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| Week | Bloc Quebecois | Conservative Party | Liberal Party | New Democratic Party |
| One | B |
C+ |
C |
B+ |
| Two | B |
A- |
B- |
C |
| Three | A- |
B+ |
B- |
C+ |
| Five | B |
A- |
C+ |
B |
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