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Viewers Guide to Election Night
What to look for on the night of Monday January 23rd.

Harold Jansen
Content Coordinator
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The political parties have been campaigning for your vote furiously for almost two months. The leaders have logged thousands of kilometres on their campaign planes. It all comes down to this: election day. Millions of voters cast their ballots and on the evening of January 23rd, people across Canada will be curling up in front of the television to watch the results come in. Mapleleafweb is proud to present the following guide to election night to help you make sense of what’s going on while the results come in. So, break out the beer and popcorn, print off this guide, and follow the results with us.

How Election Night works

Your election night experience is going to be different depending on where you live in Canada. Because media outlets are prevented from broadcasting poll results in any region where the polls are still open, viewers in different parts of the country see different coverage. Viewers in Atlantic Canada get to watch the results for the entire country come in as the polls close. Most of the country will tune in at 9:30 Eastern. By that time, many of the results in Atlantic Canada will be in and we will have some idea of how the election is shaping up.

The magic number is 155

The Canadian House of Commons has 308 seats. This means that a party has to win at least 155 seats to have a majority government. The pre-election polls seem to be indicating that the Conservatives are leading and are likely to win the most seats in the House of Commons. One of the big questions is whether the Conservatives (or the Liberals, if things were to turn around dramatically) can get a majority of the seats. If they don’t get a majority, how close will they come?

Making minority government work

If we do see a minority government (and this looks likely at this point), one of the questions is how it will function. Votes in the House of Commons need to pass with the support of a majority of the MPs. If there is no natural combination of parties that can command a majority of the votes, we can end up with a short-lived and unproductive Parliament. The combination that works, historically, is the Liberals getting some support from the NDP. After the 2004 election, the NDP did not win enough seats to combine with the Liberals to earn a majority, which may explain why the 38th Parliament did not work particularly well. The problem for the three national parties is that the Bloc Quebecois can be difficult to work with: the appearance of having a government backed up by a separatist party is not a good one. For the Conservatives, the problem is especially acute: it wouldn’t look good to work with the Bloc and the NDP is ideologically opposed to many Conservative ideas and plans. A Conservative minority government could be a very interesting and politically challenging thing. If a stable minority government situation is not created on election night, we could be back at the polls sooner rather than later, something that nobody – voters or political parties – have the stomach for right now. So, on election night, pay attention to how many seats the winning party gets and consider whether there is a party other than the Bloc that can cooperate with that party.

Voter turnout

Political analysts have been alarmed by the precipitous decline in voter turnout over the last four election. In 2004, just over 60% of voters turned out to vote, despite the most competitive election in years. Will the 2006 election reverse the trend? Turnout at advance polls has been pretty strong, but it is hard to say whether that will translate into higher turnout on election day. Many people see Canada's declining turnout as a sign of the poor health of our electoral democracy. Keep an eye on the turnout number.

What the parties need (and hope) to do

The Conservatives

Up until the last week of the campaign, the Conservatives have had a lot of momentum. Public opinion polls have shown them benefiting from the collapse of Liberal support across the country, including Quebec. In the last couple of weeks, it looked like a majority Conservative government might have been a possibility, though recent polls indicate that this is much less likely. Whatever happens, the Conservatives can count on solid support in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and rural Manitoba and British Columbia. To get a majority of the seats, they need to improve in Atlantic Canada substantially, win six to ten seats in Quebec and do very well in Ontario. The key for a Conservative majority would be to do extremely well in the suburbs of Toronto (the so-called 905 belt). The Conservatives should do well in Eastern Ontario and in the southwest; the suburbs are the major battleground. If the Conservatives do not improve in Atlantic Canada, win more than a handful of seats in Quebec, and fail to make significant inroads in the 905 belt, they will be held to a minority.

The Liberals

This campaign has gone badly for the Liberals and a majority government is clearly out of the question. The very best the Liberals could hope for is another minority government and, for that to happen, we would need to see a last-minute shift of support back to the Liberals. The Liberals’ core support is in the major cities: West Montreal, Toronto, and parts of Vancouver. To hold on to power with a minority government, the Liberals need to hold onto their support in Atlantic Canada and compensate for the expected losses in Quebec (particularly the Eastern part of Montreal ) with some gains elsewhere. British Columbia is their best hope to do that. Vancouver and its suburbs are probably the only place where that’s going to happen. For the Liberals to hold power, they will also need to retain the 905 belt in Ontario. Realistically, though, the Liberals probably are just going to hope to staunch the bleeding.

The New Democratic Party

The NDP has basically tried to capitalize on Liberal misfortunes and the message they’ve been sending to voters is simple: elect more New Democrats. The NDP will not be forming a government, but they would like to get enough seats to hold the balance of power (the difference between the seats for the government and a majority of the seats in Parliament). That would allow them to pursue some policies. To do that, the party needs to win at least 30 seats. The party will likely hold its three seats in Atlantic Canada. It will not win seats in Quebec and Alberta. It has an off chance at picking up a seat or two in Manitoba and Saskatchewan. The NDP is focused on Ontario and British Columbia in general, and the urban areas in particular. The NDP has been trying to eat into the Liberal bastion of Toronto and is showing some strength in other places ( Hamilton, Northern Ontario as well) that should give it some gains on election night. The NDP is also hoping to make some headway in Vancouver as well. It will need to see some substantial gains in both provinces if it hopes to be the kingmaker on election night.

The Bloc Quebecois

The BQ will obviously not be forming a government on election night – with only 75 candidates, it obviously cannot. But the BQ is hoping to capitalize on the Liberal slide in Quebec to gain some seats. Barring a huge surprise on election night, they will do so. The Bloc gains should largely come in Eastern Montreal. The surprising surge in Conservative support in Quebec, though, has meant that the BQ will have to try to stop Conservative gains along the Saint Lawrence and in the Quebec City area. Another thing to watch is the popular vote in Quebec. Leader Gilles Duceppe hoped to win a majority of the popular vote there: an important symbolic victory. If that happens, the BQ will be thrilled. It looked like a possibility early on; it looks much less likely now.

The Green Party

The Greens haven’t received the same amount of media attention this election and have faced more critical scrutiny as well. How this will affect the Greens’ performance on election night will be interesting to see. The Greens have two goals. First, they need to get at least as many votes as they did last election. Parties that get at least 2% of the vote nationally get public financing for their operations. The Greens should easily beat that, but they want to improve on their 2004 showing to maintain a perception of forward momentum. Second, and much more difficult, is to win a seat. The next leap forward for the Greens is to win that elusive seat. It’s unlikely they will do so, but if they do, it will likely be in British Columbia, the strongest province for the Greens.

What to Watch in the Regions

Canadian electoral politics is largely regional. Although there ostensibly is a national campaign, in reality, there are several regional campaigns that unfold simultaneously. The interesting thing to watch is how each of the regions shape up. Here’s what to watch for, from East to West.

Atlantic Canada

Although other parts of the Canada are jumping on to the Conservative bandwagon (or at least off the Liberal bandwagon), Atlantic Canada has been a little slower to embrace Stephen Harper and the Conservatives. The Conservatives are up in the polls, but only a bit. Given how close the races were in some of the districts in 2004, that slight change could make a difference, but nothing is certain. The conventional wisdom is that Atlantic Canadians like to have MPs in government. The big question is: if a Conservative government looks likely, will Atlantic Canadians try to put more Conservatives into Parliament? The most likely gains for the Conservatives are probably in New Brunswick. The NDP used to do well in Atlantic Canada when Alexa McDonough led them. They lost much of that in 2004 under Jack Layton’s leadership and are not expected to improve on the three seats they won in that election. The results for Atlantic Canada could provide some indication about whether we a Conservative majority is in the cards. If the Conservatives improve substantially on the seven seats they earned in 2004, it may be an omen of good things to come for them.

Five Districts to watch

1. Avalon ( Newfoundland ): This will probably be the closest race in Newfoundland and Labrador. Although Avalon went Liberal in 2004, political maverick Fabian Manning is running for the Conservatives against a new Liberal candidate.
2. West Nova ( Nova Scotia ): Former provincial Finance minister Greg Kerr is running for the Conservatives, challenging Liberal veteran Robert Thibault. A possible Conservative gain in Nova Scotia.
3. Kings-Hants ( Nova Scotia ): This was one to watch in 2004 because of Scott Brison’s defection from the Conservatives to the Liberals. Brison held on in 2004, but with the Conservatives on the rise, it will likely be another close battle.
4. Frederiction ( New Brunswick ): Indian Affairs minister Andy Scott has held this seat, but the Conservatives are pushing for this one. Paul Martin’s late campaign stop there shows this is one the Liberals are a bit concerned about.
5. Saint John ( New Brunswick ): This was one of the only Conservative seats after the slaughter that was the 1993 election. Liberal Paul Zed won this seat by a bit in 2004, but is facing a more formidable opponent in Conservative John Wallace. Stephen Harper visited here late in the campaign, a sign that this seat is one the Conservatives are targeting.

Quebec:

Going into this election, the only question seemed to be how badly the Bloc Quebecois would eat into Liberal support. That’s still the predominant story, but the surging Conservatives have provided another outlet for voters disenchanted with the Liberals. BQ leader Gilles Duceppe may be the victim of inflated expectations that he helped to create. Duceppe was hoping that the Bloc would win over 50% of the vote, symbolically important because that’s the same threshold that sovereigntists use for a referendum victory. Will the Bloc cross that threshold? An unforeseen development during the campaign has been a rise of Conservative support in Quebec, particularly outside of Montreal. Will this translate into seats? If the Conservatives are to form a government, seats from Quebec are badly needed and those Conservative MPs elected in Quebec are on the fast track to a cabinet seat. The Liberals will retain many seats in West Montreal area, though, because they have deep support there. The NDP is not going to be a factor in Quebec.

Five districts to watch

1. Papineau ( Montreal ): Foreign affairs minister Pierre Pettigrew won this in a squeaker in 2004, but will have a tough time holding off the Bloc this time. This is one of those East Montreal districts that the BQ is targeting. One question is whether we will see a rise in Conservative support in Papineau and how that might affect the outcome.
2. Outremont ( Montreal ): Liberal Quebec lieutenant Jean Lapierre won this by a comfortable margin in 2004; he is fighting a much tougher battle this time. The results in this ethnically diverse district will be complicated by the presence of one of the NDP’s strongest Quebec candidates: Léo-Paul Lauzon.
3. Jeanne-LeBer ( Montreal ): This West Montreal district was a very tight race in 2004 and Liza Frulla went on to become the Heritage minister in the Paul Martin government. This district has been targeted by the Bloc Quebecois and may bring another cabinet minister down to defeat.
4. Louis-Saint-Laurent ( North St. Lawrence ): This district features one of the highest profile Conservative candidate in Quebec: Josée Verner. She essentially functions as Stephen Harper’s Quebec lieutenant. She had the best showing for the Conservatives in Quebec in 2004; if the Conservatives win only one seat in Quebec, it will likely be this one.
5. Portneuf-Jacques Cartier ( Quebec City ): The BQ took this in 2004, but this district has a history of voting Conservative. The Conservatives were only a couple of thousand votes behind the Liberals here in 2004. What complicates matters is the candidacy of popular radio personality André Arthur, who is running as an independent. He has a shot at winning this, which would create an interesting situation in a Parliament with a minority government. Even if he doesn’t win, it will be interesting to see how his candidacy affects the other parties’ performances.

Ontario

With 106 seats, Ontario is the big prize and the major battleground for this election. If Atlantic Canada goes largely Liberal and the Prairies stay Conservative, Ontario determines the outcome. The Conservatives will almost surely improve upon their showing in 2004. Polls show them up across the province. They hope to build on their rural strength to make inroads into the suburbs of Toronto (the so-called 905 belt). Although the Conservatives are also targeting Metro Toronto, much of the city itself will likely escape their grasp. The NDP is expecting significant gains in Ontario as well, looking at the North, Hamilton, and Metro Toronto. The Liberals are expected to hold on to much of Metro Toronto, however, and will be fighting it out with the Conservatives for the seat-rich 905 belt.

Five districts to watch

1. Newmarket-Aurora (905): Last Spring, Belinda Stronach rocked Canadian politics with her defection from the Conservatives to the Liberals. For the first time since that move, she has to face the voters who elected her in 2004. As a Conservative, she narrowly won this in 2004. How Belinda Stronach will fare as a Liberal in 2006 is one of the interesting stories of election night.
2. Etobicoke-Lakeshore (Metro Toronto ): Jean Augustine won this handily for the Liberals in 2004. This time, the Liberal candidate is star candidate and potential leadership hopeful Michael Ignatieff. Despite some controversy early in the campaign for Igantieff, this looked safe until the Conservative surge. How it will go may have implications for the future of the Liberal party.
3. St. Paul's (Metro Toronto ): This may be the most interesting three-way race in the country. Long-time Liberal MP Carolyn Bennett is facing a strong challenge from star candidates for both the Conservatives and the NDP. Former Global television news anchor Peter Kent is seeking the seat for the Conservatives, while RBC Dominion Securities chief economist Paul Summerville is trying to win it for the NDP.
4. Beaches-East York (Metro Toronto ): Maria Minna has held this seat for the Liberals since 1993, but the NDP is coming on strong. This district is a bellweather for the NDP storming of the Liberal fortress in Toronto. As added interest, Green party leader Jim Harris is also running here.
5. Mississauga South (905): Basically, we could pick any district with the name “ Mississauga ” in it, but we’ll choose this one as representative. If the Conservatives are going to form a government, let alone get a majority, they need to do well in the 905 belt and nothing exemplifies the 905 belt better than Mississauga. Liberal Paul Szabo won this easily in 2004; the extent to which Conservative Phil Green can close the gap and maybe win the seat will be the election in Ontario in a nutshell.

The Prairies

Not much change is expected on the Prairies. In 2004, Alberta and Saskatchewan went solidly Conservative (except for three seats) and Manitoba split, with Winnipeg divided between all three parties and the Conservatives dominating the rural areas. One largely ignored story from the 2004 election was the NDP being shut out from their spiritual home in Saskatchewan. The NDP would love to regain some ground there this time. Overall, though, this region went solidly Conservative in 2004; with the party on the rise in the polls, this should go Conservative again. Winnipeg will likely split between the Liberals, Conservatives, and NDP.

Five districts to watch

1. Selkirk-Interlake ( Manitoba ): The Conservatives held this in 2004, but the NDP came in a strong second. This time, the NDP is countering the Conservatives with a star candidate in former premier and former governor-general Ed Schreyer. Will this be enough to overcome the Conservative advantage?
2. Churchill ( Manitoba ): Bev Desjarlis took this for the NDP in 2004. Her opposition to same-sex marriage got her booted from the NDP caucus and she’s running as an independent now. This was close between the Liberals and the NDP in 2004; how it will unfold in 2006 with Desjarlis’ candidacy will be a very interesting story.
3. Regina Qu’Appelle ( Saskatchewan ): The Conservatives won a close three-way race in 2004 when Andrew Scheer beat long-time NDP MP Lorne Nystrom. Nystrom is trying to unseat Scheer in this rematch as the NDP tries to re-establish a toehold in Saskatchewan. If it’s going to happen, it will probably be here.
4. Wascana ( Saskatchewan ): This was the only seat in Saskatchewan to go Liberal in 2004. Finance Minister Ralph Goodale won easily. With the drop in Liberal support and Goodale’s involvement in the income trust controversy, he probably won’t have as easy a time in 2006. This one is mostly interesting to see the fate of one of cabinet’s most important figures.
5. Edmonton Centre ( Alberta ): This has been an interesting race for the last four elections; 2006 will be no exception. Deputy Prime Minister Anne McLellan has held this seat for the Liberals since 1993. Every election, she is targeted, and every election she squeaks out a win. With the Conservatives expected to win Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont, this is the only seat needed for a clean sweep in Alberta. Watch this one to see the fate of “the most powerful woman in Ottawa.”

British Columbia

It all comes down to this. British Columbia will likely determine whether the Conservatives win a majority or how big a minority government the party gets. All three national parties are competitive in BC and all are hoping for gains. In fact, this is one of the few bright spots for the Liberals, where their seat totals might actually increase over 2004. The North and the Interior will likely be dominated by the Conservatives. The real battleground is Vancouver, its suburbs, and Vancouver Island. The Liberals and NDP did especially well in Vancouver itself, with the Conservatives showing strength in the suburbs. There are a number of tight three-way races that will end election night with a lot of drama.

Five districts to watch

1. Vancouver Centre: Hedy Fry took this for the Liberals in 2004 and she’s trying to retain this seat for the Liberals. The NDP came second; this time, the NDP candidate is the often controversial Svend Robinson. Robinson is attempting a political comeback after choosing to sit out the election after an incident involving some stolen jewellery. This is not Robinson’s old district, however, so it remains to be seen how well Robinson’s name recognition can help him here.
2. Surrey North: This district was taken in 2004 by independent Chuck Cadman, whose vote in Spring 2005 basically kept the Liberals in power. Cadman lost his battle with cancer and this seat is now up for grabs. In 2000, this area went to the Canadian Alliance (with Cadman as an MP). The NDP has recruited Penny Priddy, a former provincial cabinet minister, as their candidate, and her star power may give her the edge. With no incumbent, this should be an interesting race.
3. Saanich-Gulf Islands: Gary Lunn took this for the Conservatives in 2004. This is an interesting district because it is a close four­ way race. This was the closest the Green party came to earning a seat in 2004. Andrew Lewis is running for the Greens again. The party desperately wants to win a seat and this is their best chance.
4. Skeena-Bulkley Valley: This was a narrow victory for NDP MP Nathan Cullen in 2004 and one the Conservatives would like to take in 2006. It could go either way in 2006.
5. Victoria: When a long-time MP steps down, it creates some uncertainty. David Anderson held this seat for the Liberals since 1993. With Anderson retiring, this seat is suddenly more competitive. Look for a close two-way race between Liberal David Mulroney and NDP candidate Denise Savoie.

The North

The North is usually a contest between the Liberals and the NDP and that will likely remain the case this time, although the Liberals have the advantage in 2006. The district to watch is Western Arctic where Ethel Blondin-Andrew (who has held this district since 1988) is facing a strong challenge from NDP candidate Dennis Bevington, who came within a few votes of winning in 2004.

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