I've been waiting for some polling numbers and we finally have them, thanks to a National Post/Global TV poll done by Ipsos Reid . Basically, it shows the Conservatives well out in front, thanks to a commanding lead (46%) outside of Edmonton and Calgary. Interestingly, the Conservatives are doing better in Edmonton (38%) than in Calgary (33%), where the gap between Liberals and Conservatives is within the margin of error. It appears that there is a bit of a Stelmach effect happening in northern Alberta: there is a sense that Stelmach is their premier after years of Calgary-centred rule under Ralph Klein. It would be interesting to see a reversal of historical trends and have Calgary become the home to the opposition. If the Liberals break through significantly in Calgary and lose ground in Edmonton, it would certainly put pressure on them to get a Calgary leader -- Dave Bronconnier, anyone?
One more thing: where is the Wildrose Alliance? They are polling a measley 4% in all of Alberta. Right now that puts them well behind what the Alberta Alliance did in 2004. This party merger was supposed to create a credible threat on the right, but so far it doesn't appear to amount to much.
The other interesting thing about the poll is that only roughly 3 in 10 voters are happy with their choices and the rest of us are holding their noses when they vote. I haven't seen this question asked routinely on polls, so it's hard to say whether this is atypical. However, it does demonstrate that Albertans are a cranky lot, that no leader or party is winning this election. It looks like the winner will be the one who loses least.