Conservative Party of Canada

Flaherty and the Potential for a Federal Budget Deficit

Greg Farries — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 10:22:59 -0600

Conservative Cuts to State Funding of the Arts

Greg Farries — Tue, 21 Oct 2008 09:33:37 -0600

2008 Canadian Federal Election: Results and Summary

Jay Makarenko — Tue, 21 Oct 2008 08:04:39 -0600

On October 14, 2008, Canadians returned Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party of Canada to a second minority government. On the one hand, the 2008 election did little to change the Canadian political landscape, as the major political parties were returned to Parliament with similar seat totals and percentages of the national vote as in the previous 2006 election. On the other hand, the election saw several significant trends, such as a strengthening of the Conservative vote in Ontario, an overall decline in support for the Liberal Party, and key electoral gains for the New Democratic Party. This article provides a summary of the 2008 federal election, including an overview of the results, discussions of key factors/non-factors in the election, and an examination of the election’s impact.

2008 Federal Election Results

Second Conservative Minority Government

The 2008 federal election resulted in a second minority government for Prime Minister Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party of Canada, which won 143 of 308 seats in the House of Commons. This represented an increase in seats for the Conservatives, which garnered 124 seats in the 2006 election. Nevertheless, the Conservatives fell short of the 155 they needed to form a majority government.

The Liberal Party of Canada formed the Official Opposition, winning 76 seats in the House, the second highest seat tally of the remaining political parties. The Bloc Québécois won 50 seats (third highest total) and the New Democratic Party of Canada took 37 seats.

The 2008 general election also saw two independent MPs elected to the House of Commons. Independents are elected Members of Parliament who have no formal party affiliation. Bill Casey was elected for the Nova Scotia riding of Cumberland―Colchester―Musquodoboit Valley. Casey, originally a Conservative MP, was dismissed from that party’s caucus after he voted against the government’s budget in 2007. André Arthur, the second independent, was elected in the Quebec City-area riding of Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier. Arthur was first elected as an independent in the 2006 federal election; he has never had any affiliation with a federal political party.

2008 Election Results (Seat totals and Status by Party)

Party	2008 Election	Status	2006 Election	Seat Change
Conservative Party	143 seats	Minority Government	124 seats	+ 19
Liberal Party	76 seats	Official Opposition	103 seats	- 27
Bloc Québécois	50 seats	Opposition Party	51 seats	- 01
New Democratic Party	37 seats	Opposition Party	29 seats	+ 8
Independent	02 seats	-	01 seat	+ 01

Summary of National Vote

In terms of gains, the Green Party of Canada received the largest increase in national support of all the political parties. In 2006, the Greens won 4.5 percent of the national vote; in 2008, that total increased to 6.8 percent, a gain of 2.3 percentage points. This increase in support did not, however, translate into any seats in the House of Commons for the party.

In the 2008 vote, national support for the Conservative Party remained largely the same. In 2006, the Party received 36.27 percent of the national popular vote; in 2008, it received 37.63 percent ― an increase of 1.36 percentage points. This marginal increase, coupled with declines in Liberal Party support (see below), did result in significant increases in the party’s total seat count, as it won 19 more seats than in 2006.

Support for the New Democratic Party also remained almost the same. The party received 17.48 percent of the national popular vote in 2006. In the 2008 election, it increased its percent of the vote to 18.2 ― a gain of 0.72 percentage points. As with the Conservative Party, this small increase resulted in a significant gain in seat totals for the party; in 2008, the NDP won eight additional seats.

The Bloc Québécois incurred only a slight drop in its support. In 2006, the Bloc won 10.48 percent of the popular vote (all from the province of Quebec). In 2008 that support dropped by half a percentage point, to 9.97 percent of the vote. This, in turn, resulted in almost the same number of seats from the prevision election (51 in 2006 and 50 in 2008).

The Liberal Party experienced the largest decrease in support of all the political parties. In 2006, the Party won 30.23 percent of the national vote, while in 2008 that total fell to 26.24 percent. This represented a decline of 3.99 percentage points. Moreover, this drop resulted in a large decline in seat totals for the party, as it won 27 fewer seats than in 2006.

2008 Election Results (National Popular Support by Party)

Party	2008 Election	2006 Election	Vote Change
Conservative Party	37.63%	36.27%	+ 1.36%
Liberal Party	26.24%	30.23%	- 3.99%
Bloc Québécois	9.97%	10.48%	- 0.51%
New Democratic Party	18.20%	17.48%	+ 0.72%
Green Party	06.80%	04.50%	+ 2.3%

Key Factors in the 2008 Federal Election

The Economy

One of the most important factors in the 2008 election was the economy ― in particular, the highly publicized weakening of the international finance industry and the sharp drop in the stock market that coincided with the election period. While the economy was already a key concern for Canadians prior to the election, these specific events brought the parties’ economic policies even more to the forefront of the election debate.

The Conservative Party attempted to calm fears by suggesting that Canada’s economic fundamentals were strong and that the federal government’s best approach was to lower taxes and exercise fiscal restraint. The Conservatives also attempted to undercut support for the other parties by arguing they would damage the economy further by raising taxes. The other parties, by contrast, attacked the Conservatives for failing to have a real plan of action for addressing the new economic conditions. They also argued that this “do-nothing” approach indicated weak leadership and a failure to understand the gravity of the economic situation faced by Canadian families.

The drop in Liberal support may have been due in part to a concern over that party’s proposed environmental policy (known as the Green Shift) and its impact on the economy. On the other hand, the Conservatives failed to gain a majority, even though the economy was supposedly an area of strength. In the end, while the economy was a central focus of the election, the issue may not have been a singularly decisive factor for any of the political parties as Canadians cast their ballots.

Quebec and Newfoundland

Another key factor was the failure of the Conservative Party to gain any kind of traction in the provinces of Quebec or Newfoundland and Labrador. This failure is very important, considering how close the Conservatives came to forming a majority government. In fact, following the 2008 election, Gilles Duceppe (leader of the Bloc Québécois) characterized his campaign as a success insofar as the Bloc was able to deny the Conservatives a majority government.

In Quebec, the Conservatives won 10 seats, the same as they won in 2006. More importantly, the party saw its share of the vote in Quebec drop from 24.6 percent in 2006 to 21.7 percent. The Conservatives had anticipated making large gains in Quebec due, in part, to long-term trends which had the Conservatives increase their popular support in that province over several elections. The Conservative government, helmed by Stephen Harper, had also attempted to make their party more attractive to Quebec voters. In 2006, the Harper government passed legislation recognizing Quebec as a “nation within a united Canada.” The Harper government had also attempted to meet financial demands from Quebec (as well as the other provinces) by addressing the perceived federal-provincial fiscal imbalance. Nevertheless, two key events derailed the Conservatives efforts to secure greater support in Quebec in 2008: there was a backlash over Conservative handling of arts and culture policy, in which the Party became perceived as under-appreciating the arts and cultural sectors; and the party gained an image as being overly socially conservative, with changes it had proposed to dealing with young offenders.

In Newfoundland and Labrador, the Conservatives lost all three seats they had won in 2006; they also saw their portion of the vote in that province drop from 42.7 percent to 16.5 percent. The Conservatives’ weakness in Newfoundland and Labrador stems from its cancelling of the Atlantic Accord (to which the previous federal Liberal government had committed), and dealt with equalization payments to the province. In 2006, the new Harper Conservative federal government unilaterally cancelled this Accord, resulting in a provincial backlash. The Conservative government later back-tracked from its original decision and negotiated a second deal with the provincial government, however voter disdain for the Conservatives did not subside. In the 2008 campaign, voters were reminded of all this by Danny Williams, the popular premier of Newfoundland and Labrador, who actively campaigned against Stephen Harper and the Conservatives during the election with his “ABC” campaign (Anybody But the Conservatives).

Televised Leader Debates

Traditionally, the televised leader debates have minimal impact on the outcome of federal elections. The 2008 debates were projected to continue this trend, especially considering the English debate was to be held at the same time as the debate of the vice-presidential candidates in the US. Surprisingly, however, the debates had a much larger impact on the 2008 election than in previous years.

In the 2008 campaign, the debate ‘stakes’ were raised significantly, at the campaign’s outset, over the issue of whether or not Green Party leader Elizabeth May should participate. Previously, only the leaders of political parties with representation in the House of Commons had been allowed to participate in the debates. Even though the Green Party had one member in the House prior to the election call, the media consortium (which organizes the debates) had excluded the Greens. In addition, both Stephen Harper (Conservative Party leader) and Jack Layton (New Democratic Party leader) expressed the view that May should not be allowed to participate in the debate. Following public outcry over the exclusion, the broadcasting consortium reversed its decision, allowing May to participate in the debates.

While the debates did not decisively change the dynamics of the election, they did serve to have a significant impact on the campaign. Prior to both the French and English debates, the Conservatives enjoyed a large lead over the other parties in public opinion polls; at that time, the general consensus of pollsters was that the Conservative Party could win a majority government. By contrast, in the pre-debate period, the Liberals were mired at historically low levels of public support, at times near only 20 percent of popular support. Following the debates, however, the gap closed noticeably; support for the Conservatives began softening, while the Liberals enjoyed a slight boost. This may have been due to perceived weak performance by Conservative leader Stephen Harper during the debates and relatively strong performances by Liberal Party leader Stéphane Dion, NDP Party leader Jack Layton, and Green Party leader Elizabeth May (particularly, in the French debates). Also important to note is the increase in support for the Green Party. This may have been due, in part, to May’s participation in the debates, and the resulting national exposure.

The debates alone did not cause this shift in public support. Economic events, such as the collapse of major international financial institutions and weakening world stock markets, also coincided with the closing of the gap between the parties in the public opinion polls. Moreover, the Conservatives were already under public attack in Quebec over the party’s positions on the cultural arts and youth offenders. The debates, however, may have reinforced trends in voting behavior that were already ‘in play.’

Non-Factors in the 2008 Federal Election

The Environment

The environment was billed as a key issue in the 2008 election. Public opinion polls conducted prior to the election had suggested the electorate’s concern about the environment had increased significantly since the previous election in 2006. This coincided with greater public awareness about key environmental issues, such as global warming, and the rise of green politics at the federal level. The Green Party had emerged as a mainstream political party in Canadian politics, while the Liberal Party had chosen to make the environment a central plank of its election platform.

Nevertheless, it’s not clear that concern over the environment played a significant role in voting behaviour, at least not in a direct manner. The economy, instead, dominated political discourse during the election, with strong environment policy being portrayed as being in conflict with pressing economic realities. In this sense, the Conservatives may have been successful in suggesting to voters that the stronger environmental policies of their opponents, such as the Liberal Party’s Green Shift, would be detrimental to Canada’s economic stability and recovery. Further contributing to this was the inability of the Liberals to explain their Green Shift in an effective manner, so as to counter Conservative portrayals of this policy.

Military Mission in Afghanistan

Another significant non-factor in the 2008 election was the military mission in Afghanistan. Public opinion polls prior to the election had suggested that a strong majority of Canadians disapproved of Canada’s military actions in Afghanistan. Moreover, the Parliamentary Budget Officer released a report during the election in which he was critical of the government for misreporting the total cost of the military mission. Nevertheless, the Afghanistan mission was not a dominant issue in the election discourse ― nor was it likely a decisive issue in voter behaviour.

This may have been due to a number of factors. First, the Conservatives and Liberals both supported military action in Afghanistan, as well as the timeline for ending the mission. This partisan agreement effectively took the Afghanistan mission off the election table for both parties. Second, the fact that formal timeline for withdrawal exists may have reduced the significance of Afghanistan for Canadian voters. At the time of the election, the Conservative government had committed to withdrawing troops by 2011. The Afghanistan mission may have had a higher election profile if the government had left the timeline open, without a firm exit date.

Traditional Policy Issues

It is worth noting that several policy issues, which tend to be at the forefront of Canadian federal politics, did not play a significant role in this election. The first of these issues was health care. Traditionally, health care is a central plank of the parties’ election platforms, with each party highlighting how it would address deficiencies in the system (such as waiting times) and advocating reforms, be it through stronger public support of the system or greater participation by the private sector. The 2008 election discourse, however, rarely focused on the issue of health care.

Another traditional issue that was absent from the 2008 election campaign was Quebec separatism. Even in Quebec, where the Bloc Québécois tends to focus voting patterns on the Quebec separatism, the issue had very little traction. Election dynamics in Quebec, instead, seemed to be influenced by Conservative policies on the arts and young offenders. The Bloc Québécois intentionally based its campaign on these issues. Interestingly enough, its success in the 2008 election was more about the party’s ability to capitalize on anti-Conservative sentiments rather than any public support for Quebec separatism ― the party’s raison d’être.

Beyond the 2008 Federal Election

Continued Minority Government

The most direct impact of the 2008 election result is continuing minority government at the federal level. This is the third minority government elected by Canadians since 2004, marking one of the longest periods of minority government in post-Confederation history.

Duration of Minority Governments (1867-2008)

Political Party	Prime Minster	Term	Duration
Liberal	William Mackenzie King	1922-1925	1,277 days
Conservative	Stephen Harper	2006-2008	888 days
Liberal	Pierre Trudeau	1966-1968	826 days
Liberal	Lester Person	1963-1965	846 days
Liberal	Pierre Trudeau	1973-1974	490 days
Liberal	Paul Martin	2004-2005	421 days
Conservative	Arthur Meighen	1926-1926	176 days
Progressive Conservative	John Diefenbaker	1962-1963	132 days
Progressive Conservative	John Diefenbaker	1957-1958	110 days
Progressive Conservative	Joe Clark	1979-1979	66 days

(Source: Parliament of Canada, 2008)

As the Conservatives do not enjoy a clear majority in the House of Commons, they will need to rely on the other parties to pass government legislation. This may result in greater cooperation between the Conservatives and at least one other party, either in an ongoing basis or a case-by-case basis. Following the election, Conservative Party leader, and prime minister, Stephen Harper indicated a willingness to work with the other parties. Considering the large ideological differences that separate the Conservatives from the other political parties, however, it’s not clear how such a relationship might work.

One advantage for the Conservative government will be a weakened Liberal Party (see below for more). With the Liberals looking inward at their leadership and policy direction, they may not be inclined to challenge the Conservatives in the immediate future, or to consider forcing another election anytime soon. This may, in turn, allow the Conservative government to push forward with its own agenda without great concern over losing the confidence of the House.

Growing Conservative Strength in Ontario

One of the more important results of the 2008 election was the growth of Conservative support in the province of Ontario, once a fortress of Liberal power and electoral support. Since the 2000 election the conservative support in Ontario has steadily grown, translating into a greater number of seats and share of the popular vote share. By contrast, the Liberals have seen their electoral fortunes steadily decline. The 2008 election is a significant milestone, in that it saw the Conservatives take top spot ― as the preferred federal political party of choice in Ontario ― for the first time in several decades.

Liberal Party Support vs. Conservative Party Support in Ontario (2000-2008)

General Election	Liberal Party		Conservative Party
General Election	Seats	% of Vote	Seats	% of Vote
2000*	100	51.5	02	25.8
2004	75	44.7	24	31.5
2006	54	39.9	40	35.1
2008	38	33.9	51	39.2

*2000 figures for the conservatives based on the combined numbers of the Canadian Alliance Party and the Progressive Conservative Party of Canada, which subsequently merged into the Conservative Party of Canada.

It is unclear, however, what this trend means for the long term. On the one hand, it may suggest a changing of the guard, in terms of the preferred political party in Ontario, away from the Liberals and towards the Conservatives. Considering the historic influence of Ontario on the overall results of Canadian federal elections, this may further suggest the entrenchment of the Conservative Party as the new party of government in Canada, at least for the foreseeable future.

On the other hand, it’s not clear that Conservative support in Ontario is stable. As the 2008 campaign clearly demonstrated, Conservative support outside Western Canada is vulnerable to sharp declines over relatively minor issues ― as evidenced by the party’s poor showing in Quebec. There, Conservative support at the beginning of the election bled away not only to the Bloc Québécois, but also to the Liberals. If Conservative support in Ontario is similarly soft, the Liberal Party may be able to recapture some of its past support under different leadership and/or with a different policy focus and platform.

Continued Liberal Weakness in Western Canada

In Western Canada, political observers have long recognized the weakness of the Liberal Party, which has been systemic since the days of the Trudeau Liberals in the 1980s. Throughout the 1990s and into the new millennium, the Liberal Party was largely able to rely on its massive support in central Canada to form governments.

Liberal Support in Western Canada (2000-2008)

General Election	British Columbia		Alberta		Saskatchewan		Manitoba
General Election	Seats	% of Vote	Seats	% of Vote	Seats	% of Vote	Seats	% of Vote
2000	5	27.7	2	20.9	2	20.7	5	32.5
2004	8	28.6	2	22.0	1	27.2	3	33.2
2006	9	27.6	0	15.3	2	22.4	3	26.0
2008	5	19.3	0	11.4	1	14.9	1	19.1

As the Liberal Party can no longer depend upon massive support in Ontario, it may have to look to growth in the west as a key element in the party’s revitalization. This, however, would be difficult; since 2000, the Liberal Party has steadily seen both its seat totals and percentage of the popular vote steadily decrease in the west (see above table). In 2000, for example, the party won 14 seats, with popular support in each of the western provinces above 20 percent. In 2008, the Liberals won only seven seats and fell below 20 percent in each province. In Alberta and Saskatchewan, support for the Liberal Party fell to lows of 11.4 and 14.9 percent respectively. It also bears noting that the Liberals have not elected a member of parliament from Alberta since 2004.

This all contrasts sharply with the extremely high numbers traditionally charted by the Conservative Party across the western provinces. Moreover, in the 2008 election, the Liberal Party trailed well behind the New Democratic Party as the second major contending party in each western province. A perfect example of this is British Columbia, where the Conservatives took over half the seats and almost half the popular vote, while the New Democratic Party was the second strongest party in the province.

Party Support in British Columbia (2008 General Election)

Party	Seats	% of Vote
Conservative Party of Canada	22	44.4
New Democratic Party of Canada	09	26.1
Liberal Party of Canada	05	19.3
Green Party of Canada	00	09.4

Growing New Democratic Party Electoral Success

While the New Democratic Party remained the fourth party in terms of seat totals, it nevertheless scored an important victory in the 2008 election. The Party significantly increased its overall seat count, winning its largest number of seats in the House of Commons since 1988. Since the 2000 election, the NDP has steadily increased both its seats in the House and its portion of the national vote.

New Democratic Party Support (2000-2008)

General Election	Seats	% of Vote
2000	13	8.5
2004	19	15.7
2006	29	17.5
2008	37	18.2

During the election, the New Democrats adopted the strategy of presenting themselves and their leader, Jack Layton, as a legitimate government alternative. This is in contrast with previous tactics adopted by the party, where New Democrats portrayed themselves as simply a social democratic voice in Parliament. It’s important to note that in the 2008 campaign the Party was able to increase its seat count even with strong growth by the Green Party of Canada ― support which likely came at the cost of traditional NDP votes.

It is, however, unclear what this trend may suggest for the long-term. While the New Democrats almost doubled their seats between 2004 and 2008 (from 19 to 37 seats), their portion of the national vote has only increased marginally during the same period (from 15.7 to 18.2 percent). This may suggest the Party has a ceiling in its electoral support and that current electoral gains have been based on dissatisfaction with the Liberal Party in its current form rather than stable, committed support for the NDP. Nevertheless, the 2008 election results are very important, considering that in 2000 the Party was on the verge of becoming an irrelevant force in national politics.

Declining Voter Turnout

Another important result of the 2008 election was the extremely low voter turnout. In the 2008 election, only 59.1 percent of eligible voters cast a ballot ― the lowest voter turnout for a federal election in Canadian history. Overall, voter turnout for federal elections in Canada has steadily declined since the late 1980s.

Voter Turnout for Federal Elections (1988-2008)

Year	1988	1993	1997	2000	2004	2006	2008
Voter Turnout	75.3%	69.6%	67.0%	61.2%	60.5%	64.7%	59.1%

This long-term, declining rate of democratic participation has been attributed to a number of factors, including a lack of interest in the electoral process, dissatisfaction with the candidates/political parties, and a lack of confidence that one’s vote mattered.

For more information on voter turnout:

Mapleleafweb: Voter Turnout in Canada

Best and worst campaigns: and the winners are...

Harold Jansen — Sun, 12 Oct 2008 09:33:51 -0600

As we're in the dying days of the election, it's time to look back and see who had the best and worst campaigns in this election. It was an odd election, with events overtaking the best laid plans of political strategists and consultants. Just to be clear, this doesn't have anything to do with how these parties will do on election day. This evaluation looks at how well the party did, based on the resources they had and the goals they needed to accomplish.
BEST CAMPAIGN: Agree with them or not, I think it's clear that the NDP ran the smoothest, most focused campaign in the election. They had a clear message that they repeated and stuck to and one that worked in the changing economic environment. Jack Layton hit the right notes pretty consistently and got off the line that my students most remembered from the debate when he asked whether Stephen Harper's platform was under his sweater-vest. I'm not sure they were smart in ignoring the Liberals and esepcially the Greens, but overall they ran a smart, disciplined campaign. The only gaffes or scandals had to do with not vetting candidates properly and their ad campaign was extremely effective and well-produced. Unfortunately for the party, I don't think the increased support they've gained during the campaign is going to translate into many additional seats. It looks to me like people in areas that already like the NDP like them a lot more and that the party hasn't done much to improve elsewhere. Furthermore, I think there's a limit to the NDP's appeal, based on its policies and they're approaching that limit. That said, the party should be proud of its efforts during this campaign.
BEST CAMPAIGN (RUNNER-UP): The Green Party and Elizabeth May have also shown the most growth durign the campaign and also accomplished their goal: they got to participate in the debate and May showed she belonged there. The party is establishing itself as a real "none of the above" alternative to the three old parties. In Alberta and British Columbia, I think we could see some strong showings for local candidates. The party is close to doubling its popular vote showing from the last election. It was a big step forward. The big failing, of course, is that the party is almost assuredly not going to elect any MPs. It would be great to have Elizabeth May in Parliament, but running in Nova Scotia against Peter McKay was just a bad idea. May realizes all of this, which is why she said electoral reform, not action on climate change, would be her first act as Prime Minister. The key for the party now is to recruit some high profile candidates to run for them and to target those districts. Candidate recruitment generally contineus to be an issue for the party. Overall, though, the Greens should be happy with this campaign.
WORST CAMPAIGN: Sorry, Stephen, but the Conservative campaign, which was almost perfect in 2006, just didn't cut it this time. The party had everything going for it: it determined the timing of the election, it had a leader whose leadership ratings far surpassed all of the other parties, it was swimming in money to pay for the election and a ton of pre-writ election spending, and its primary partisan had money, organizational and leadership challenges. Here we are, five weeks later, and the party is limping to the polls, down from where they started the election. The Conservatives will blame the economy, as they were close to majority government territory before the market meltdown. All parties faced this challenge, but the Conservatives seemed to be caught flat-footed, not knowing how to respond. The economy also doesn't explain the series of gaffes from an over-eager war room in the first part of the campaign. It doesn't explain the evaporation of Conservative support in Quebec, which was a direct result of the party's policies on the arts and young offenders. It doesn't explain the lack of a platform for most of the campaign. It also doesn't explain Harper's limp performances in the two debates. It doesn't explain why the party continued to run negative attack ads, when people were looking fo rhope and reassurance. The economy killed them, sure, but the campaign was not terribly effective.
Conservative strategist and University of Calgary political scientist Tom Flanagan gave a lecture here in Lethbridge last year where he talked about the way the Conservatives learned in their campaigns. He showed how the lessons they learned in the two Harper leadership contests and the 2004 election led them to run a very good campaign in 2006. One comment he made in response to a question from the audience still resonates with me. He said that the party would have to learn how to run a re-election campaign, something they've never done. There will be many lessons to learn from this one.
WORST CAMPAIGN (RUNNER-UP): It's tough to pile on here, but Stephane Dion and the Liberals were in the runing for the title of worst campaign until the last couple of weeks where Dion hit his stride and responded forcefully to the economic downturn. Much of the campaign was a disorganized mess, though. The party had trouble getting its message out and never gained traction. The Green Shift was an interesting piece of public policy, but the party never foudn a way to sell it or explain it well. Dion is a bright and sincere person, but was not a very effective communicator for much fo the campaign. What saved them was that Dion improved over the course of the campaign. The party showed the ability to react and think on its feet and responded effectively. It gave them a three point bump in the polls, so the campaign doesn't look that dismal any more, but the end result is that, barring some last minute shifts in opinion, this is going to go down as one of the worst Liberal party showings in history.

Was Prime Minister Harper too Passive in the Leaders Debate?

Greg Farries — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 08:18:23 -0600

2008 Election Campaign Political Party Platforms

Jay Makarenko — Fri, 03 Oct 2008 09:24:31 -0600

Find a summary of the major political parties’ election platforms and key election promises for the 2008 federal election in Canada. Links to the official party platforms for the Conservative Party of Canada, Liberal Party of Canada, New Democratic Party of Canada, and the Green Party of Canada are also available.

Conservative Party of Canada Platform

The Conservative Party’s 2008 election platform was released in a policy document titled The True North Strong and Free: Stephen Harper’s Plan for Canadians. The Party’s website also list eight key policy priorities on its website: sovereignty, leadership, the environment, health care, lower taxes, child care, tackling crime, and accountability. The website also provides a backgrounder on the Conservative government’s February 2008 budget, which is titled Responsible Leadership for Uncertain Times. The following provides highlights of these various policy documents.

Economy: Central to the Conservative economic strategy is tax reduction. This includes previously announced tax reductions, such as the lowering of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) from seven to five percent, as was as reducing personal income and corporate taxes for individuals and businesses. New proposals include lowering taxes on diesel and aviation fuel by half and further reductions in corporate taxes for small and medium-sized business. Other economic policies include reducing the regulatory burden for small businesses and northern development; a new $75 million venture capital fund to help businesses commercialize new technology developments; a $900 million Strategic Aerospace and Defence Initiative and a $250 million Automotive Innovation Fund to support these industrial sectors; a $1 billion Community Development Trust to support communities and workers in struggling industries; a commitment to reduce inter-provincial trade barriers by 2010; pursuing new trade agreements with emerging markets; as well as a reorganization of federal regional development strategies.

Environment: The Conservatives have committed to reducing Canada’s greenhouse gases by 20 percent below 2006 levels by 2020, and cutting air pollution by 50 percent by 2015. There targets will be achieved through government laws imposed on industries, as well as national caps for industrial emissions commonly associated with smog and acid rain. Other environmental policies include promoting smarter energy use through the ecoEnergy Initiative; a Chemical Management Plan to regulate chemicals harmful to human health and the environment; $1.5 billion over seven years for the production of renewable fuels; a commitment to ensure that 90 percent of Canadian electricity needs are generated through non-emitting sources by 2020; and additional government funding to acquire and preserve ecologically sensitive lands.

Health care: The Conservative Party remains committed to Canada’s system of public health care. Specific policies proposed or introduced by the Conservatives include Patient Wait Time Guarantee agreements with the provinces and territories; continued implementation of the 10-year $41.3 billion Plan to Strengthen Health Care (the plan was introduced by the previous Liberal government in 2004); establishing the Canadian Partnership Against Cancer to implement a national cancer strategy; increased funding for new training of doctors, nurses, and other health care professionals; increased investment in the Canada Health Infoway to develop electronic health records.

Social Justice: Conservative policies for social justice include a combination of targeted tax reductions, new spending programs, and new justice-related legislation. Specific policies include a Canada Employment Credit and Tax Fairness Plan to reduce taxes for working families and seniors; tax credits for public transit, kid’s sports, textbooks, tools, and apprentices; increased support to the provinces and territories to create new child care spaces; increasing the Senior Age Credit amount by an additional $1,000; and allowing income splitting for caregivers of family members with disabilities. Also social policies include introducing stiffer punishments for serious crimes, including changes to Canada’s youth offender laws and ending house arrest for some crimes; increased spending for police and security services to reduce crime.

Liberal Party of Canada Platform

The Liberal Party has outlined its 2008 election platform in a policy document entitled Richer, Fairer, Greener: An Action Plan for the 21st Century. Core planks of the platform include the economy, the environment, social justice, and foreign policy. Highlights of the document include:

Economy: A key component of the Liberal Party’s economic policies is the encouragement of a green economy through the development of environmentally-friendly industries and jobs. The Liberals are also committed to reducing income and corporate tax rates and balanced federal budgets as means of spurring economic growth. The Liberals have also targeted infrastructure and education as critical to continued economic prosperity. Specific policies include a 10-year $70 billion plan to invest directly in Canada’s infrastructure; increased support for university-based research; simplifying tax support for students; and reforms to student loan initiatives. The Liberals have also promised to create a $1 billion Advanced Manufacturing Prosperity Fund to assist manufacturing industries and workers facing economic difficulties.

For more information on the Liberal Party’s economic policies:

Liberal Party of Canada: Jobs Today, Jobs Tomorrow: A Liberal Plan for a More Prosperous Canada (PDF)

Environment: The Liberals have adopted the Green Shift as the core of their environmental policies. Central to the Green Shift is the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by at least 20 percent below 1990 levels by 2020, 40 percent by 2035, and 60 to 80 percent by 2050. These goals will be achieved through a progressive carbon tax system, which place levies on carbon emissions. The Liberals are also committed to creating a national carbon trading system, enabling companies to trade emission credits in order to meet targets. Other Liberal environmental policies include a Renewable Power Production Incentive to encourage the development and use of non-carbon-emitting energy sources; providing incentives to Canadians for green home renovations; stiffer fuel efficiency standards for automobiles; the introduction of higher water and air quality standards to reduce pollution; a Toxic Substance Reduction Strategy to safe food products; and the development of a National Ecosystem Stewardship Strategy to protect Canadian wilderness, oceans, and endangered species.

For more information on the Liberal Party’s environmental policies:

Liberal Party of Canada: A Greener Canada (PDF)

Health Care: The Liberal Party has promised to maintain and improve Canada’s public health care system. Specific policies include a Doctors and Nurses Fund to increase training capacity for new health care professionals; working with Aboriginal communities to close the gap in the health status of Aboriginal peoples; and the introduction of a drug plan to ensure Canadians have access to catastrophic drug coverage.

Social Justice: The Liberal Party is committed to a fairer Canada. Specific policies include the 30-50 Plan to Fight Poverty, which is committed to reducing the number of people living below the poverty line by 30 percent and the number of children by 50 percent; an Affordable Housing Plan; pursing the long-term goal of a national high-quality, universal, community-based, early education and child care system; increasing the Guaranteed Income Supplement by $600 per year for low-income seniors; and creating a new relationship with Canada’s First Nation, Inuit and Métis peoples, including re-instating the Kelowna Accord.

For more information on the Liberal Party’s social justice policies:

Liberal Party of Canada: A Fairer Canada (PDF)

New Democratic Party of Canada Platform

The New Democratic Party has released a document outlining is 2008 election platform. The document focuses on three key policy areas: the economy, health care renewal, and the environment. Highlights of the NDP’s election platform include:

Economy: The NDP promises to promote Canadian jobs and make life more affordable for Canadian families. Specific policies include encouraging job creation and innovation in the new energy economy; improving the fairness of employment standards (including re-establishing the National Minimum Wage; reversing “tax giveaways” to corporations; introducing and maintaining balanced budgets; protecting Canadians from “price gouging” by businesses; implementing income stabilization programs for farmers; promoting long-term economic and environmental sustainability of marine and forestry resources; and re-investing in education, skills training and apprenticeships to help Canadians succeed in the economy.

For more information on the NDP’s economic policies:

New Democratic Party of Canada: Making Life More Affordable for Families – Creating Jobs

Health Care: Central to the NDP’s renewal strategy for health care is a commitment to maintaining and improving the public health care system. Particular policies include training and hiring more doctors and nurses; improving home care; establishing a national prescription drug program; and promoting good health through physical fitness and amateur sport programs.

For more information on the NDP’s health care policies:

New Democratic Party of Canada: Hiring More Doctors and Nurses and Renewing Health Care

Environment: The NDP promises to cut Canadian greenhouse gas emissions to 20 percent below 1990 levels by 2020, and 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050. This will be accomplished through a combination of a “cap and trade” carbon pricing system, mandatory vehicle emission standards, and investing in renewable energy production and consumption. The NDP has also pledged to protect Canada’s water resources by placing some restrictions on the export of bulk water, encouraging more efficient water consumption, and improving water quality through stronger regulations. The NDP has further pledged to: complete the National Parks System; ensure the integrity of parks and protected areas is not compromised by industrial activity or inappropriate development; improve endangered species protection; and establish an Environment Commissioner as an independent Officer of Parliament to provide oversight on the government’s environmental performance.

For more information on the NDP’s environmental policies:

New Democratic Party of Canada: A Plan for the Environment that Will Really Work

Social justice: The NDP promises to: establish and fund a national child care and early learning program; end poverty in Canada by 2020; reform the Employment Insurance system to ensure fairness; implement a comprehensive and fully-funded affordable housing strategy; invest $5 billion over five years for First Nations, Métis, and Inuit peoples to improve health services, housing, water services, and local infrastructure; and improve fairness for women in the workplace through initiatives such as strengthening pay equity provisions in the Canada Labour Code.

For more information on the NDP’s social justice policies:

Bloc Québécois Platform

The Bloc Québécois have released their 2008 election platform in a series of French-only documents. For more information on the Bloc Québécois’ election platform and promises:

Bloc Québécois: Enjeux

Green Party of Canada Platform

The Green party released its 2008 election platform in a document entitled Looking Forward: A Fresh Perspective on Canada’s Future. Highlights of the Green Party’s election platform include:

Economy: The Green Party promises to create “healthy” businesses. This includes ensuring Canadian businesses are strong, as well as working to promote the development of new green industries. Specific measures include renegotiating the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA); assisting small business through Green Venture Capital Funds and tax shifting; encouraging the production and consumption of Canadian agricultural products; protecting fish stocks and promoting sustainable aquaculture; and working with the forestry industry to protect jobs and develop value-added products.

For more information on the Green Party’s economic policies:

Green Party of Canada: Economy

Environment: A central policy priority of the Green Party is the environment. In this context, the party is committed to cutting greenhouse gas emissions to 30 percent below 1990 levels by 2020 and 80 percent by 2050; introducing a carbon tax (to be offset by cuts in personal and corporate taxes); expanding research and development of low-carbon technologies; improving energy productivity through smarter regulation of large appliances and vehicles, as well as a national program to retrofit existing buildings; and participating constructively in global negotiations concerning environmental issues.

For more information on the Green Party’s environmental policies:

Green Party of Canada: Environment

Taxation: As far as government taxation, the Green Party promises to: introduce a $50 per tonne carbon tax while simultaneously reducing personal and corporate taxes; provide tax breaks to corporations that reduce their carbon emissions; return the Goods and Services Tax (GST) to six percent and to invest the additional government revenue into infrastructure; and eliminate income taxes for those earning less than $20,000.

Health care: The Green Party is committed to protecting Canada’s universal, single-payer public health care system. In addition, the party has pledged other key health-related initiatives, such as limiting the commercialization of genetically modified crops; developing national goals for pre-natal care; reducing cigarette smoking through education and taxes; and promoting healthy eating and physical activity.

For more information on the Green Party’s health care policies:

Green Party of Canada: Health Care

Social justice: The Green Party is committed to making Canada a more equitable society. Key policies include introducing a Guaranteed Annual Income; ensuring universal access to quality childcare and early childhood education; cutting debt for post-secondary students; honouring the Kelowna Accord with Aboriginals; expanding the rights of gay, lesbian, bisexual, and transsexual Canadians; and easing the income support levels required for immigrant family sponsorship.

French debate preview: pressure on Harper

Harold Jansen — Wed, 01 Oct 2008 15:51:31 -0600

In an hour and a half, the French language debate will be starting and it will be interesting to see how it unfolds. This really is the contest between Dion, Duceppe and Harper. Although the NDP is making some gains in Quebec, I don't see Mr. Layton as particularly relevant and Ms. May's struggles in French mean she'll be marginal for much of it.
I'd argue the pressure is really on Harper in this one (unlike the English debate, which I'll write about tomorrow). Harper needs a breakthrough in Quebec to get that elusive majority and he's close. Things were looking good in Quebec, but last week was not a good done for the Conservatives there. Playing the blue collar anti-culture card plays well in western Canada, but not so well in Quebec where culture is infused with nationalism. Westerners love it when the government beats up on young offenders; in Quebec it doesn't play so well. It shows how difficult it is to create and to maintain the Mulroney coalition of Western Canada and Quebec nationalists. It's easier to maintain when you don't open up the constitution, but it's still difficult even if you do not. Harper needs to perform well tonight to shore up the gains the party has made there and to add more seats. Duceppe and especially Dion benefit from diminished expectations. If they exceed those expectations, they will have done well.

Harper gets Biten by his Party, while Dion keeps Biting away at his Party

Greg Farries — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 09:54:17 -0600

What if they held an election and nobody came? Campaigning in Alberta

Harold Jansen — Wed, 17 Sep 2008 17:23:39 -0600

One of the discussions I often end up having with my classes is how much local campaigns and candidates matter. There is a school of thought, best represented by the work of political scientists Ken Carty and Munroe Eagles, that argues that local campaigns can be very important and make a difference. Another school of thought suggests that in an age of electronic, media-intensive, leader-focused campaigns, local candidates matter very little. We often joke in class that one great way to settle this debate would be to convince a candidate not to campaign and see what happens. Unfortunately, we conclude, it would be difficult to convince someone to do this.
Well, the funny thing is that some Alberta Conservative candidates are almost providing us with this situation. Almost of all of them are incumbents and many of them are suspiciously AWOL from their districts. Some are campaigning in districts across the Canada; others just seem to have vanished. That's not to say that their local campaign teams aren't working, just that the candidates themselves have been absent. The media is starting to notice, as Don Martin's column in today's Calgary Herald is about this, as is Kevin Libin's blog posting at the National Post website. The CBC Calgary morning show ran a segment called "Where's Rob?" in which they search for MP Rob Anders, who has done this in the past as well. (In fairness, there are reports that Anders is recovering from an injury this time around).
It's a sign of how impregnable Fortress Alberta is for the Conservatives. Albertans have become used to being ignored by party leaders. Stephen Harper will be here on election night, Stephane Dion is devoting his efforts to campaigning in areas where the Liberals have a chance, and Jack Layton is content to fly over Alberta while dissing the oilsands. Elizabeth May might show up, since Alberta is actually the province where the Greens earned the highest share of the vote. But the increasing tendency of incumbent MPs not to campaign here takes this to a whole new level.
Albertans don't like to be taken for granted, as the province's long history of developing "third parties" shows us. However, this is a logical consequence of the electorate's monolithic voting behaviour. If Albertans are going to elect Conservatives no matter what, there's little incentive for anyone to "woo" them. Including, it seems, its Members of Parliament.