Quebec

French debate preview: pressure on Harper

Harold Jansen — Wed, 01 Oct 2008 15:51:31 -0600

In an hour and a half, the French language debate will be starting and it will be interesting to see how it unfolds. This really is the contest between Dion, Duceppe and Harper. Although the NDP is making some gains in Quebec, I don't see Mr. Layton as particularly relevant and Ms. May's struggles in French mean she'll be marginal for much of it.
I'd argue the pressure is really on Harper in this one (unlike the English debate, which I'll write about tomorrow). Harper needs a breakthrough in Quebec to get that elusive majority and he's close. Things were looking good in Quebec, but last week was not a good done for the Conservatives there. Playing the blue collar anti-culture card plays well in western Canada, but not so well in Quebec where culture is infused with nationalism. Westerners love it when the government beats up on young offenders; in Quebec it doesn't play so well. It shows how difficult it is to create and to maintain the Mulroney coalition of Western Canada and Quebec nationalists. It's easier to maintain when you don't open up the constitution, but it's still difficult even if you do not. Harper needs to perform well tonight to shore up the gains the party has made there and to add more seats. Duceppe and especially Dion benefit from diminished expectations. If they exceed those expectations, they will have done well.

Is Religion Fair Game in Canadian Politics?

Royce Koop — Thu, 18 Sep 2008 23:35:17 -0600

We were subjected in the 2000 election campaign to constant mockery of Alliance leader Stockwell Day's evangelical faith and beliefs. We got a glimpse of this tendency in the present campaign, this time from Gilles Duceppe:
"Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe again attacked the governing
Tories as social conservatives, pointing to the candidacy of a member
of the Catholic group Opus Dei as evidence that the party is composed
of right-wing ideologues who would take away a woman's right to choose."
Duceppe's sudden infatuation with the imaginings of Dan Brown has more to do with the electoral threat the Tories are now posing the Bloc than with any concern over Opus Dei infiltration of the Canadian government. The bigger question is of course about religious litmus tests for candidates for public office in Canada and whether candidates' religious beliefs are fair game for attack. Michael Coren points out that Duceppe's attack is not confined only to members of Opus Dei:
"Opus Dei is entirely faithful
to Catholic teaching, so if anyone objects to its people standing for
office they should really say what they mean — that genuine Catholics
are not welcome."
It's the Catholic Church, not just Opus Dei, that opposes Duceppe's laundry list of "recent accomplishments." By attacking Opus Dei, Duceppe is by extention attacking Catholics and their right to run for public office in Canada without first jettisoning their most deeply held beliefs.
The real question is whether it is acceptable for politicians to attack the religious beliefs of their opponents.

Lastest seat projections from LISPOP put the Conservatives short of a majority

Harold Jansen — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 12:46:30 -0600

One of the challenges of interpreting public opinion polls and predicting election outcomes in Canada is the single member plurality electoral system that only loosely translates popular vote into seats. That's why models that try to predict seat totals are interesting. One of the oldest and most successful is done by the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy. Political scientist Barry Kay has developed a model that looks at regional shifts in party support as reported in polls and maps that on what we see at the district level in the previous election. He has a new seat projection out today that puts the Conservatives at 145 seats, ten short of a majority. Most of those gains over 2006 would come at the expense of the Bloc in Quebec and the Liberals in Ontario. Interestingly, Kay's projections see the Liberal seat totals up in Quebec a a few gains in Atlantic Canada and Quebec. Overall, the Liberals break pretty much even as do the NDP. The story is essentially one of Bloc collapse and Conservative gains. The picture painted by polls and by the seat projections is that Quebec is the real story of the election.

Crisis Within the Bloc

Melanee Thomas — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 12:15:19 -0600

Even with new media reports nearly every day in Quebec of separatist politicians taking a swipe at the Bloc, I was reluctant to believe there was a real problem within the party. Rather, I thought some separatists might be more inclined to sway voters to a different party (odd as that might sound).
I'm beginning to realise, however, that it's both: colleagues of mine much closer to the Bloc suggest there is a "genuine crisis" and it centres around the idea that right-wing viewpoints and ideas are no longer welcome within the party.
Because of this perception that conservative views are no longer welcome within the Bloc, right-wing separatists appear to be coming out of the woodwork, attacking the Bloc effectively by suggesting it is irrelevant because it no longer places the sovereignty question in the centre of its platform. Yesterday, five former Bloc MPs wrote an open letter in Le Devoir to this effect, countered by a letter with the opposing viewpoint (that the Bloc remains relevant) from nine Bloc MPs in La Presse. The Bloc's Montreal coverage (or what I get of it, anyway) is dominated by this question of their relevance instead of their issue positions, candidates, or the campaign.
These attacks on the Bloc clearly serve the interest of the Conservative Party of Canada. Quebeckers are still very much looking for an "independentist" option, as a friend put it, but are beginning to think the Bloc isn't it. Outside Montreal, where more conservative views dominate (as evidenced by the Conservatives' 10 seats in 2006 and the strength of the Action Democratique du Quebec (ADQ) in the last provincial election), the Conservatives look to pick up a significant number of seats.
Thomas Mulcair, the only NDP MP in Quebec, echos this idea that the Bloc is in a tailspin (albeit in campus media. I was bored at the registraur's office and was a bit taken aback by his interview). With the Liberals in disorganised disarray and the Bloc fighting for it's own relevance, the NDP likely could do well in Montreal, holding Outremont and potentially picking up Westmount-Ville Marie.
These attacks on the Bloc's relevance, however, seem so coordinated and are so recent (we didn't hear anything of it in the lead up to the by-elections or the current election), that I can't shake the idea that these attacks are organised by competing political interests. These interests clearly are on the right of the political spectrum, and the obvious beneficiary is the Conservatives. I would not be surprised if this is part of their Quebec strategy. It's too slick just to be a bunch of malcontents, and it's working.
After the election, I wouldn't be surprised if prominent separatists to start working with Harper, provided the Conservatives win, and/or the beginnings of talk of a new separatists party at the federal level in the next few years.

When Lawn Signs Aren't an Option

Melanee Thomas — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 16:45:36 -0600

I am convinced that, as a displaced Albertan, I will always find politics in Quebec somewhat odd.
Election campaigns near the farm I grew up on were always quiet affairs, and the only notice we received of the election (save what was on the TV and in the newspaper) was the odd giant sign on some farmer's field. In Lethbridge, we had a whole portion of the campaign team dedicated to lawn signs, and we were quite proud to have "owned" certain high profile parts of the city, peppering as many lawns and fences as we could with our campaign signs.
In urban cores, however, lawn sign campaigns are not a viable option as, to state the obvious, few people actually have lawns. When I lived in Calgary-Nose Hill, we just didn't see many signs at all. So few signs were out, in fact, that if you weren't paying attention, it would be easy to avoid the fact that an election was going on.
Unlike Calgary (or at least the part I lived in), one cannot miss when an election is happening in Montreal. Signs, instead of peppering lawns, adorn nearly every lamp post on major streets. What I find exceptional about these signs is that they have large images of each candidate's face plastered all over them, and they are typically posted at a level where the faces could be vandalised by a well-placed Sharpie.
During the last Quebec provincial election, I was taken aback by how little vandalism actually occurred. I was not surprised, however, that the vandalism increased significantly for the Westmount-Ville Marie by-election. The Green Party candidate has been dubbed "The Hoff" by the locals, and many of his signs bear a striking resemblance to Captain Morgan ads. The NDP candidate's signs were rarely vandalised, and the only signs that appeared completely unscathed were the Liberal candidate's as they were placed high enough to be out of reach.
On Sunday, I was not surprised to see the Liberal sign crew out in Laurier--Sainte-Marie (the riding I reside now, currently held by Gilles Duceppe). I was, however, surprised to see where they were placing the signs: they are so high on the light posts that it is quite easy to miss them. I understand that campaigns would be eager to ensure their signs wouldn't be vandalised, especially on a street such as St. Denis (with a notoriety for revelry). That said, placing signs nearly out of sight as well as out of reach is a bit much.
Duceppe's team had some of his signs up today, also too high to reach without a ladder, but a good metre and a half below the Liberal candidate's signs. Some New Democrat signs are up on balconies, and as one would expect in urban Montreal, there is little Conservative presence.
Given the importance of Quebec to both Conservative and Liberal fortunes, I expect that we will see much more campaign activity in the city in the coming weeks.

McCartney plays at Quebec City's 400-year birthday bash, leaving many separatists angry

Greg Farries — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 09:43:11 -0600

Pauline Marois

Greg Farries — Tue, 17 Jun 2008 09:34:42 -0600

Pauline Marois is Leader of the Parti Québécois. Currently, she serves as Member of the National Assembly (MNA) for the riding of Charlevoix, a riding she won in a by-election on September 24, 2007.

Marois was acclaimed Parti Québécois leader on June 27, 2007, after André Boisclair resigned. It was Marois’ third bid for the party leadership. She was runner-up to Boisclair in the leadership contest held in 2005. She also ran for the leadership in 1985 following the resignation of Premier René Lévesque, but came in second. Marois emerged from retirement expressly to run for the PQ leadership.

As PQ leader, Marois has put the plan for referendum on sovereignty on hold; her focus is on rebuilding voter support for Quebec independence. She has proposed a strategic plan to assist the province’s forestry sector, which has been hard hit in recent years due to mill closures. In October 2007, she proposed the Quebec Identity Act, which would require immigrants to learn French in order to obtain rights. Her proposal was heavily criticized both within Quebec and beyond. In April 2008, Marois proposed revising Bill 101, the French Language Charter, in order to address a decline in the use of French language in the province. Among her proposals are additional French courses in elementary and secondary schools; a requirement that newcomers to the province learn French; and more power for the Office of the French Language.

Though the PQ Party has long been the main Quebec sovereigntist and social democratic party in Quebec, it performed poorly in the election held March 26, 2007, and was replaced by the Action Démocratique du Québec (ADQ) Party as the official opposition.

During her political career, Marois has served as a Cabinet Minister under René Levesque, Jacques Parizeau, Lucien Bouchard, and Bernard Landry. She has been responsible for portfolios in key areas, including status of women, labour, administration and public service, finance, revenue, and education. She was first elected MNA in 1981; she subsequently lost her seat in 1985, but was re-elected to the provincial legislature in 1989.

In the 1970s, Marois gained experience with several community organizations prior to working as press attachée for then-finance minister Jacques Parizeau. She also served as chief of staff for Lise Payette, minister responsible for the condition of women, and taught for some time at Université du Québec en Outaouais.

Marois was born on March 29, 1949 in Quebec City. She earned a bachelor’s degree in social work from Université Laval, and an MBA from HEC Montréal. She is married to Claude Blanchet, and they have four children: Catherine, Félix, François-Christophe and Jean-Sébastien. She currently resides in Île-Bizard, on Montreal’s West Island.

Quebec Election Info

Jay Makarenko — Fri, 24 Aug 2007 10:20:41 -0600

2007 Election Results & Current Party Standings


Political Parties	2007	Voter %	Current
Liberal Party	48	33.08	48
Action démocratique du Québec	41	30.84	41
Parti Québécois	36	28.35	34
Québec solidaire	-	3.64	0
Green Party	-	3.85	0
Other	-	1.90	0
Vacant	-	-	2

Leader Profiles

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Mario Dumont

Greg Farries — Wed, 20 Jun 2007 08:30:49 -0600

Mario Dumont is Leader of the Official Opposition and of the Action Démocratique du Québec (ADQ) party. He led the ADQ to a major breakthrough in the 2007 provincial election, expanding his party's presence in the Quebec National Assembly to 41 seats from five. The ADQ received 31 percent of the popular vote, displacing the Parti Québécois as the main alternative to the Quebec Liberal Party.

Dumont helped found the ADQ after splitting with the Quebec Liberal Party (QLP) leadership over the Charlottetown Accord. He became ADQ leader in April 1994, and was subsequently elected MNA for the riding of Rivière-du-Loup that year. During the 1995 referendum campaign in Quebec, he campaigned for the "Yes" side after signing the 1995 Tripartite Agreement on Sovereignty with then-Quebec Premier Jacques Parizeau and Bloc Québécois Leader Lucien Bouchard.

Dumont entered politics in 1986. He was a member of the youth commission for the Quebec Liberal Party, and in 1988 was elected to the Party's Executive of the Youth Commission. In 1991, Dumont became chair of the Youth Commission. In the 1992 referendum on the Charlottetown Accord, he campaigned against the accord as co-chair of the Network of Liberals Voting NO.

Dumont was born on May 19, 1970, in Cacouna, Quebec. In 1993, he earned a Bachelor's degree in economics from Concordia University in Montreal. He is married to Marie-Claude Barrette, and they have three children: Angela, Charles, and Juliette.

François Gendron

Greg Farries — Wed, 20 Jun 2007 08:30:36 -0600

Biography currently not available.