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Toro

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About Toro

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  1. I found out today that my phone is probably being tapped. I can call out but am having difficulty with incoming calls. If I can answer a phone call within a second or two of the phone ringing, I am able to connect with the person on the other line. However, after a few seconds, if I do not answer the phone, the line clicks dead and is followed by white noise. I called the phone company and they think the line has been tapped. This afternoon, we noticed that calls were coming in and the caller would seem to hang up after a few seconds. If this happened once or twice, this would not raise
  2. Because it is too bloody hot to work hard. I realized why there are so many basket cases on the equator after I moved to Florida and spent a few summers here. You have no energy to work when its 100F. That's why air conditioning is one of the most important inventions of all time.
  3. The NBER is perhaps the pre-eminent research organization for economics in the United States. I was merely presenting the evidence against the poster who said that tax cuts do not effect the economy. Of course they do. Tax cuts do not balance the government's budget, like some of the supply-siders argue. Nor are they a cure-all for everything. But to dismiss tax cuts out of hand as not effecting the economy is simply flat-out wrong. The single best policy that the Canadian government can do right here right now to provide stimulus is to cut the payroll tax. It lowers that cost of empl
  4. The National Bureau of Economic Research is not a "right-wing think tank." Almost all of those links come from the NBER. http://www.nber.org/info.html
  5. Its pretty simple. If you think the economic crisis is going to get worse, the Canadian dollar will go down. If you think that the economic crisis is going to get better, the loonie will go up. If you think things will be about the same as they are now, the loonie will go sideways. The fair value of the loonie based on purchasing power parity is about 80 cents, meaning it is trading around where it should.
  6. Tax cuts on corporate income increase the corporate tax share as a percentage of GDP http://www.cato.org/pubs/tbb/tbb_1107_49.pdf Decreasing payroll taxes and instituting a flat corporate income tax would triple entrepreneurial activity. http://www.nber.org/digest/nov02/w9015.html Taxes on wireless services destroys more economic value than the tax revenues it brings in. http://www.nber.org/digest/jan00/w7281.html Higher tax rates on labor income and consumption expenditures lead to less work time in the legal market sector, more time working in the household sector, a larger underground
  7. http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/todays...5536/story.html
  8. Yet he still thinks Canada should still be forking over equalization payments even though NFLD is a have province. Hmmm.... And I invest for a living. If I were investing in NFLD, I'd want an iron-clad contract with disputes adjudicated outside of the province.
  9. The Banana Republic of Newfoundland. Hugo Chavez ain't got nothin' on Newfoundland and Labrador premier, Danny Williams. Ol' Hugh at least pays compensation for expropriating private assets owned by corporations, unlike Williams, who is just taking the assets of forestry company AbitibiBowater. Scratch Newfoundland off the list of places to invest.
  10. The US is definitely slowing. The question is whether or not there will be a recession. That's hard to say. The latest beige book said that everything other than housing was strong. And the OECD expects US growth to accelerate. But the 10 year TBond has rallied and yields touched 4.75%. And housing is definitely rolling over. OFHEO said that the decleration in the growth rate of home appreciation was the highest in 3 decades. There definitely was a bubble in housing and now its bursting. IMHO the policies of the government and the central bank pulled consumption forward. I think we'l
  11. The "secret" has been known for about 100 years. We're a couple decades away from full-scale production of oil from shale. But the potential is massive. From the Rand Corporation http://rand.org/pubs/monographs/2005/RAND_MG414.pdf
  12. I work in capital markets. My institution moves hundreds of millions, sometimes billions, of dollars daily. I see how vital foreign capital is to the functioning of this country. If the US instituted policies that caused significant capital flight, I can tell you with complete confidence that the US economy would collapse.
  13. It is my impression that those making this argument have not thought it through. In very simple terms, this is an argument about wealth. The US economy needs oil. If oil becomes scarce, wars will break out over oil because it is a "strategic resource," or so the argument goes. The problem with this argument is that if the world is on the verge of war over oil because it is so scarce, the world economy will either be on the verge of collapse or will have already done so. The world is integrated. America seizing oil and keeping it for itself means that the economies of Europe and Asia ca
  14. I don't necessarily disagree with this Thelonius. But what I'm saying is that oil traded in euros in Tehran or Riyadh or Oslo or London for that matter will not trigger a flow away from dollars as the world's reserve currency. If that does happen, it will be because the US is deliberately debasing its currency. Besides, 65% of global reserves are in dollars while the US accounts for 30% global GDP. If I were advising a central bank, I would advise the bank on that fact alone to decrease their exposure to dollars. But to what is the other question because the euro is a structurally weak cur
  15. They were low-balling the figure. Privately, some in government were saying it would be more than $200 billion. If you ran the numbers, and you made reasonable assumptions, there was no way the US could have done it for that little, unless everything went perfectly, which they never do in war. The Bush administration has done this elsewhere. They disciplined an analyst who wrote that the medicare prescription bill would cost around $540 billion, not $400 billion the administration was saying. The analyst is probably going to be right in the end. Here is another shenanigan the White House
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