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Canadian Political Polls

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http://www.vancouversun.com/news/story.html?id=1135891

Michael Ignatieff scores significantly better than his predecessor Stephane Dion on a range of leadership questions but still trails Prime Minister Stephen Harper on almost all fronts, according to the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll.

Results of the poll, conducted exclusively for Canwest News Service and Global National in late December, show 43 per cent of Canadians said they believe Harper would make the best prime minister, compared with 33 per cent who picked Ignatieff and 23 per cent who sided with Layton.

The Liberal recovery post-Dion has been substantial and we have not even see a day in the House with Ignatieff at the helm.

Let's see if Harper tries to insert some poison into the budget as some still think we will try. I believe he wants an election before a large deficit is produced on his watch.

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http://www.vancouversun.com/news/story.html?id=1135891

The Liberal recovery post-Dion has been substantial and we have not even see a day in the House with Ignatieff at the helm.

Let's see if Harper tries to insert some poison into the budget as some still think we will try. I believe he wants an election before a large deficit is produced on his watch.

Harper wants the Coalition to take power for the 6 weeks they'd last. Of coarse they'll make a great budget with a minor Tory initiative in there and they'll all vote against Harper.

The coalition will take power then fall , they'll be another election which will sweep the Tories to a massive majority. Piece of cake dobbins my boy!

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Harper wants the Coalition to take power for the 6 weeks they'd last. Of coarse they'll make a great budget with a minor Tory initiative in there and they'll all vote against Harper.

If its minor, it will pass.

There will be no coalition. If the Liberals vote no, I think they are now prepared to go to an election or to form a government without signed support from the other parties.

The coalition will take power then fall , they'll be another election which will sweep the Tories to a massive majority. Piece of cake dobbins my boy!

Harper's chance of a majority probably evaporated when Harper didn't pull the plug on Dion.

It is now a matter of time before Harper quits or loses power.

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If its minor, it will pass.

There will be no coalition. If the Liberals vote no, I think they are now prepared to go to an election or to form a government without signed support from the other parties.

You are getting delusional now dobbin. You're usually level headed but lately you're writing as though intoxicated. Explain how they could form a gov't with no signed support and half as many seats as the Tories?

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You are getting delusional now dobbin. You're usually level headed but lately you're writing as though intoxicated. Explain how they could form a gov't with no signed support and half as many seats as the Tories?

It would be up to the Governor General to decide if the other two parties would support a Liberal government. No signed agreement is necessary. All that is necessary is for the other parties to retain confidence in the new government.

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It would be up to the Governor General to decide if the other two parties would support a Liberal government. No signed agreement is necessary. All that is necessary is for the other parties to retain confidence in the new government.

Ah I see what you're getting at. Forming a government with Separatists isn't going to play well.

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Ah I see what you're getting at. Forming a government with Separatists isn't going to play well.

They won't be part of anything. They would be still an Opposition party. They could vote yay or nay on the new government just as they can now. In other words, no change.

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This poll is close to 2 weeks old and traditionally Internet polls or polls conducted as such aren't great so take it with a huge grain of salt.

"The poll, conducted Dec. 18 through Dec. 21, involved an online survey of 1,021 Canadians"

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This poll is close to 2 weeks old and traditionally Internet polls or polls conducted as such aren't great so take it with a huge grain of salt.

True. I have no idea why they waited so long other than it fit in well with year end reports for the news.

As for online polls, I have commented many times that I don't think they are very random nor do they include as many people as I believe phone polls do. However, I do have to say that Angus Reid came closest to predicting the outcome of the this last election.

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True. I have no idea why they waited so long other than it fit in well with year end reports for the news.

As for online polls, I have commented many times that I don't think they are very random nor do they include as many people as I believe phone polls do. However, I do have to say that Angus Reid came closest to predicting the outcome of the this last election.

Polling methodology is very important. Pose the questions the right way and you can get the answer you want.

Ask Canadians this question...

Do you think it would be better for Canada to stick with a proven leader like Stephen Harper, or switch to a new PM in this period of economic uncertainty?

Asking in that fashion will skew the results in favour of Mr Harper. Its an example of what's called "PUSH" polling. By sticking the word "proven" into the question with respect to Harper's leadership it pushes an idea on the poll respondent. I had one of these calls during our last election, its apparently very common in US politics.

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Asking in that fashion will skew the results in favour of Mr Harper. Its an example of what's called "PUSH" polling. By sticking the word "proven" into the question with respect to Harper's leadership it pushes an idea on the poll respondent.

I have not seen evidence of that with the Angus Reid polls. They are worded the same as they were when the Liberals were in power.

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I have not seen evidence of that with the Angus Reid polls. They are worded the same as they were when the Liberals were in power.

I always like to see the exact wording of the questions before passing judgment, but I tend to agree with you....Angus/Gallup etc, the larger polling companies tend to be very neutral. When i was "push" polled during the election it was by a polling company hired by the Tories, one I'd never heard of.

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Polls mean nothing right now. It's obvious that a good number of Liberal voters were so dis-illusioned with Dion that they went to the NDP, Green, or stayed home. Those traditional Liberals are now cautiously returning to the fold and will watch closely to see if Ignatieff can pull the party back to the Center. Meanwhile, the Liberal turmoil of the last few years has allowed the Conservatives to claim some Center/Right Liberals and expand the Conservative base into New Canadian communities. It seems that so far, they have managed to hold onto that base. We'll know more when the House resumes and Ignatieff gets an opportunity to show what he can do.....and of course, how Harper responds to this fresh challenge. If Ignatieff can acquit himself well, I would expect that the Greens and NDP will be further marginalized.

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The key here is "conducted exclusively for Canwest News Service". Conrad Black's baby.

However, a December 3 poll stated that 49 % of Canadians think that Harper should resign; 37% thought he should stay (exactly the same percentage as the election) and 14% undecided. Election intent remained the same, but bear in mind that if the Left unite (and I believe they already have a plan in place) for the next election and Harper still has just 37%; I'm no wizard, but you do the math.

Mr. Ignatieff is just becoming well known across the country and so far we like what we see.

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The key here is "conducted exclusively for Canwest News Service". Conrad Black's baby.

Canwest is owned by the Aspers. Izzy recently died and his son has now taken the helm.

Mr. Ignatieff is just becoming well known across the country and so far we like what we see.

Go Iggy!

I am so glad to see Dion go away. He was the worst leader for the Liberal Party evah!

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Canwest is owned by the Aspers. Izzy recently died and his son has now taken the helm.

Go Iggy!

I am so glad to see Dion go away. He was the worst leader for the Liberal Party evah!

Except before Oct. 14 when he was then the savior of Canada of coarse.

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Uh, we don't think of our politicians as "saviours" :rolleyes:

No one ever thought Dion was anything but a skinny pale emotional whiner who could not, no matter how hard he tried, get his point across in English.

So where the hell do you get off telling us we thought he was a "saviour".

Don't you have a job Mr. Canada? Seems you post day and night, seven days a week.

And it's Sunday, shouldn't you be in church or at a bake sale or sumpthin?

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Ah I see what you're getting at. Forming a government with Separatists isn't going to play well.

Oh, Mr. Canada. Are your referring to 2004 when Harper signed such a deal with the 'Separatists':

http://nickcoulter.posterous.com/harper-le...o-clarkson-2004

Or 2005 when Harper said that a Prime Minister shouldn't eexpect to be able to call an election just because he's failed and the GG should look at other options?

I'm curious, because you're one of the few left who still spew this rhetoric.

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Polls mean nothing right now.

They don't? Seems like in a minority government, we should be prepared for an election any time.

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The key here is "conducted exclusively for Canwest News Service". Conrad Black's baby.

However, a December 3 poll stated that 49 % of Canadians think that Harper should resign; 37% thought he should stay (exactly the same percentage as the election) and 14% undecided. Election intent remained the same, but bear in mind that if the Left unite (and I believe they already have a plan in place) for the next election and Harper still has just 37%; I'm no wizard, but you do the math.

Mr. Ignatieff is just becoming well known across the country and so far we like what we see.

Who is "we"?

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They don't? Seems like in a minority government, we should be prepared for an election any time.

Yes and when Ignatieff is corona ted PM (as he was corona ted Liberal leader)with a Separatist prop he should prepare for one very soon after. I'm sure he'll defraud the Canadian people like many fine Liberals before him. Hello massive Tory majority!

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Hello massive Tory majority!

You think? If Harper wants an election, I'm sure he will get one. I don't know that he can predict the outcome. Ignatieff is not Dion and Harper knows that.

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What Harper knows, remains in question, as what Harper thinks. What kind of thinking would take a sitting PM in a minority government to propose legislation that would serve to eliminate opposition during an election in terms of campaign financing?

Harper will either write a throne speech that is acceptable or he will not. Acceptable to the opposition could mean many things, which is why he must consilt to placate these other interests or face the reality of a confidence vote in the Commons. We may not even get to a budget.

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