Jump to content
Political Discussion Forums

Canadian Political Polls


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Here is an expanded version of the latest Nanos poll listing other regional breakdowns beside the jaw dropping Quebec numbers.

""I think if the Conservatives embarked on what I'll say is a significant initiative to attack Michael Ignatieff and the Liberals, it will probably backfire because what it shows is Stephen Harper focusing more on politics as opposed to jobs and the economy".

http://www.nikonthenumbers.com/topics/show/117

Link to post
Share on other sites

Latest Strategic Counsel poll:

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

If it is voted down, 49 per cent said they would prefer an immediate federal election compared to 44 per cent who would like to see a Liberal-NDP coalition led by Ignatieff.

Across Canada, 36 per cent said they'd vote Conservative if an election were held the next day, compared to 30 per cent for Liberals, 18 per cent for the NDP, 11 per cent for the Bloc Quebecois and 5 per cent for the Green Party.

The poll of 1,000 Canadians was conducted Jan. 12-14 and is accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

And on the economic front:

Forty per cent of respondents said the Tories were best able to manage the economy in a recession, compared to 38 per cent for the Liberals. Eight per cent said neither party could do it.

The gap has closed considerably.

Edited by jdobbin
Link to post
Share on other sites
The gap has closed considerably.

Add in the inevitable 'Tory times are tough times' fallout from the current malaise plus a surprisingly positive reaction to Ignatieff's limited exposure, and the makings of a Liberal govt loom on the horiizon.

Iggy's current refrain of 'they had no plan' seems to have resonance - his party is now tied with Tories as best managers of the economy.

The biggest threat to this Liberal future is the new leaders propensity for undisciplined public musings as he exercises his formidable intellect. Victory at the polls is his to lose.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I thought the LPC gain was from an IGGY bounce. And the LPC were already in the Cellar, so there was nowhere to go but up.

I am not taking these polls to seriously though, I believe, much like the September Polls, the polsters have the CPC numbers much lower then at game time when it counts.

I have seen two recent polls which have the NDP at 19 and 18%, but just a short time ago, 12% and 15% were common. And the NDP have not made any announcements or changes since Dions December Washout and Iggys coronation.

So, I believe alot of vote parking is happening and if push come to shove, unless the CPC provoke an election, the LPC numbers will go down between a bit and a lot, but nothing like the Dion fiasco.

I can see the NDP being split by the CPC and the LPC, and falling in that 12 to 15% range.

Otherwise there isn't alot of change, infact, some of these projections makes the future look like the 2004 election. But I take a 2012 prediction with a grain of salt.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Latest Angus Reid poll from the weekend.

http://www.thestar.com/News/Canada/article/572739

The Conservatives are at 39 per cent support nationally, compared with 30 per cent for the Liberals, 17 per cent for the NDP, 9 per cent for the Bloc and 5 per cent for the Greens. In the Oct. 14 election, the Tories garnered 37.6 per cent of the vote. In Ontario, the Conservatives are at 42 per cent support, just two percentage points ahead of the Liberals. The NDP is at 12 per cent and the Greens at 5 per cent.

I think it suggests that the Tories are back in minority territory if an election was held today.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Latest Angus Reid poll from the weekend.

http://www.thestar.com/News/Canada/article/572739

I think it suggests that the Tories are back in minority territory if an election was held today.

The polls are just like grain prices in this day and age, first sign of trouble and its off to the races. Looks like we are back in the holding pattern that's been for the last 3 years...

Link to post
Share on other sites
The polls are just like grain prices in this day and age, first sign of trouble and its off to the races. Looks like we are back in the holding pattern that's been for the last 3 years...

We'll see if Harper is going to roll the dice and call an election in the next weeks.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Latest Ekos poll.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/sto...y/politics/home

the Conservative Party continues to lead in overall voting intentions in Canada, with the support of 36.2 per cent of respondents, compared with the Liberals at 32.6 per cent and the NDP at 14.3 per cent.

On Harper:

The Ekos/Globe and Mail poll suggests the Liberal Party is gaining momentum as economic concerns grow, with a majority of Canadians now holding a negative view of Conservative Leader and Prime Minister Stephen Harper. Of the 1,000 respondents, 55 per cent disapproved of Mr. Harper's handling of his responsibilities, while 35 per cent offered their approval.

“That is a very bad number,” Ekos president Frank Graves said of the disapproval rating. “That is getting up into [former U.S. president] George W. Bush numbers. Not quite, but 10 more points, and you're up to as bad as it gets for elected leaders.”

On the coalition:

The new poll suggests Canadians' feelings have evolved, with 50 per cent of respondents favouring a coalition government, while 43 per cent are happier with the current Conservative government.

On going to an election if the government is defeated:

In addition, the poll suggests that 49 per cent of Canadians want to see Governor-General Michaëlle Jean send the country to the polls if the Harper government is defeated on its budget, instead of allowing a coalition government.

Kind of contradiction on election and coalition.

Link to post
Share on other sites

It's nuance, not contradiction.

We have a weak and discredited government, that can't be trusted to use the least modicum of judgement.

In an ideal world, I'd love to see an election; riddance of the Conservative party; an end to the rediculous hyperpartisanship... but our current situation is hardly ideal. We had an election three months ago, and are in a crisis that demands that

i someone

be at the helm and get on with governing, SOON.

The potential coalition has already moved on from its own terms, with Iggy now leading the Liberal party, so although it remains an option to consider, it would have to be rebuilt in consideration of events since the prorogation. While it is strengthened by having a more viable potential PM, it is also weakened because that potential PM has had no real ratification from his own party--- It would be very, very fragile.

An election, and further delay of governing is.... not at all desireable. No doubt it would result in a more stable situation, but the delay is hard to justify.

So we have a choice among three very unhappy options: A government that has rightly lost the confidence of the house; a shockingly weak coalition; an election entailing even more delay in an emergency situation.

I'd go with the coalition, but there are as many dragons on that path as on either of the others.

Link to post
Share on other sites

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

Here are some other key findings from the poll:

* 53 per cent of Canadians want the budget to pass

* 49 per cent say the deficit is a manageable challenge

* 39 per cent say the deficit is a severe impediment for the future

* 50 per cent are not confident the budget will promote economic stability

Public reaction seems mixed. There is a lot of fear out there and the government will wear this budget if it is passed.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Latest CROP poll.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/090130/...politics_quebec

The CROP poll for La Presse has the federal Liberal Party at 31 percent in Quebec, still shy of the 34 percent for the separatist Bloc Quebecois but well above the 16 percent for the Conservatives and 15 percent for the leftist New Democrats.

Looks like Ignatieff is helping the Liberals recover in Quebec.

Link to post
Share on other sites

"OTTAWA — Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff seems to have read the public mood precisely with his decision to support the Tory budget with conditions, a new poll suggests.

His offer to support the Conservatives' fiscal policies in return for a pledge for regular status reports on the economy won majority support across the country.

The Canadian Press-Harris-Decima survey suggested that 72 per cent of respondents support the idea of quarterly updates, with only 20 per cent opposed.

Support for Ignatieff's decision cut across all political parties, with 85 per cent of Liberals, 75 per cent of Bloc supporters, 68 per cent of New Democrats and even 64 per cent of Conservatives saying it was a good idea."

http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianp...m7oywqiodikB16g

It appears that Canadians like the idea of Ignatieff putting Harper on a leash.

Link to post
Share on other sites
"OTTAWA — Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff seems to have read the public mood precisely with his decision to support the Tory budget with conditions, a new poll suggests.

His offer to support the Conservatives' fiscal policies in return for a pledge for regular status reports on the economy won majority support across the country.

The Canadian Press-Harris-Decima survey suggested that 72 per cent of respondents support the idea of quarterly updates, with only 20 per cent opposed.

Support for Ignatieff's decision cut across all political parties, with 85 per cent of Liberals, 75 per cent of Bloc supporters, 68 per cent of New Democrats and even 64 per cent of Conservatives saying it was a good idea."

http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianp...m7oywqiodikB16g

It appears that Canadians like the idea of Ignatieff putting Harper on a leash.

The neat part for Harper is by the time of the first update, enough time will have passed that an election would be automatic if the govt is defeated. So Iggy unwittingly has actually done Harper a favor.

Link to post
Share on other sites
So Iggy unwittingly has actually done Harper a favor.

From my observations, Iggy would rather an election than a coalition. The Liberals have nowhere to go but up in terms of seat count.

Link to post
Share on other sites
From my observations, Iggy would rather an election than a coalition. The Liberals have nowhere to go but up in terms of seat count.

I'd say the next election is up in the air, the Liberals will gain seats in Quebec, a substansial amount of seats there. They do have momentum right now, but that depends on the recession and Harper's ability to deal with it. I'd say look for a holding pattern until the fall/winter if the economy does what the BOC figures it will do. As for saying the Libs are broke, it appears they have their financing back on track and will spend time fundraising. I think the NDP and the Bloc will get smashed by the Liberals.

Link to post
Share on other sites
I think the NDP and the Bloc will get smashed by the Liberals.

Yes, they will definitely make gains there. 10 - 20 seats from the Bloc and 10 - 20 seats from the NDP. I think, for the sake of the federal NDP party, its time for Jack to move on.

Link to post
Share on other sites
10-20 NDP seats? Pick em? I don't see it happening.

10 would be easy...20...not so easy....the NDP has been at very low numbers in the past. Jack is sorta out of the game now from what I can see.

Link to post
Share on other sites
10 would be easy...20...not so easy....the NDP has been at very low numbers in the past. Jack is sorta out of the game now from what I can see.

Regardless of past support. The liberals are putting a lock on the right, and to be fair they lost a lot of close ones with the CONS not so much the NDP there were maybe 5 close ones almost all of which were in BC. I think with green support dropping out of the basket and the Libs moving to the right the NDP might lose 5 or they could gain.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Regardless of past support. The liberals are putting a lock on the right, and to be fair they lost a lot of close ones with the CONS not so much the NDP there were maybe 5 close ones almost all of which were in BC. I think with green support dropping out of the basket and the Libs moving to the right the NDP might lose 5 or they could gain.

If this budget is as bad as many are predicting...Iggy and the Liberals may have a hard time explaining away their support.

Memories are short, an awful lot of us don't make up our minds until near voting day. Layton and the NDP seem to be banking on this budget being a disaster...and they'll be able to say they were against it from the start...that might just affect the polling numbers if they're right.

Link to post
Share on other sites

The explanaation is pretty simple--- the time that could have been used to get it right was thoroughly wasted before it was ever put on the table.

November was already late to be calling for a do-over, but in January/February, to put it off for another couple of months would have been wholly irresponsible, even if it's deeply flawed.

Edited by Molly
Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.




  • Tell a friend

    Love Political Discussion Forums? Tell a friend!
×
×
  • Create New...