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Conservative Majority?


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It's simple electoral logic. Swing too far to the right and they'll get one term in majority and then get trounced.

I agree...And I have'nt seen any evidence from these people that they have the intellectual capacity to grasp that concept...

You have rightfully pointed how they seem to have a visceral problem with how democracy is operated in this country,vis a vis our constitution...

In an unchecked majority situation,who is going to stop them from running roughshod over those that oppose them???

Edited by Jack Weber
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Yes...However,in an unchecked majority there is nothing forcing these folks from shifting to their natural ifeoligical positions...

Mr.Clement was called "Two-Tier Tony" at Queens Park when he was Minister of Health because he advocated for more privatization of the health care system..

Mr.Flaharty felt jailing the homeless was a compassionate thing to do...

Mr.Baird is...well...Mr. Baird...

Nevermind the Vic Toews of the world in that caucus...

I'm suggesting that if one thinks this party has had power long enough that they may have moderated their positions,I think they might be mistaken...

A leopard cannot change his/her spots....

And let's not forget that the Conservatives are nurturing their own religious right base, which they will have to reward if Harper does have a chance at majority government. There are a lot of people who aren't too enamoured with the alternatives, but dislike and distrust Harper enough to try to prevent him from getting his majority. It happened in the last election, and it will happen again; and that's why he's so hesitant to dissolve Parliament and call an election....in spite of all of the illegal TV ad campaigning he does on a continual basis.

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The liberals are stronger than ever they have a great leadership support structure and have policies to match.

We will see if that is true next election i guess.

Edited by wulf42
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My concern is over certain policies they might implement. With a majority there is little to keep them under restraint. It's fine to say, if they go too far the pendelum will just swing back again, but it's the damage that could be done, long or short term. Peoples lives hang in the balance.

Mandatory minimums for non-violent crimes is one policy I cannot accept. In doing so, people will be dealt with not by justice or intelligence but by the inhuman face of the system.

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To what extent can polls be truly representative if it is only landlines that are called? For all I know, a large percentage of the population have switched to using their mobile phones for everything.

Also, has anybody here taken part in a poll before? I've been waiting years for a pollster to call. Hasn't happened yet.

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To what extent can polls be truly representative if it is only landlines that are called? For all I know, a large percentage of the population have switched to using their mobile phones for everything.

Also, has anybody here taken part in a poll before? I've been waiting years for a pollster to call. Hasn't happened yet.

I don't know why this has become an issue. Statisticians are long used to working in such issues. Since this is just a sample, the likelihood of any one of us being called is very low.

At any rate, a few polls in a short period of time is not sufficient to get me worked up. We've been here before, and the election talk got louder and louder, and then the next set of polls showed it to be a blip. We've been doing this ever since the 2008 election. Harper isn't going to pull the pin on these polls alone, he's going to go off of internal polling numbers, and if this shows signs of being a trend, then we'll see. We still have a month for the budget, and if the Tories are still skirting the 40% mark by then, then an election will happen. If they drop back down to the low 30s, then it will be up to the Opposition.

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There's only two polls, one is the voting poll and the other is the talk one hears at their coffee shops. Depending were the coffee shop is does make a difference. High unemployment, which be Ontario for one, they aren't happy and I don't think Harper will get a majority and he'll lose some in Ontario.

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There's only two polls, one is the voting poll and the other is the talk one hears at their coffee shops. Depending were the coffee shop is does make a difference. High unemployment, which be Ontario for one, they aren't happy and I don't think Harper will get a majority and he'll lose some in Ontario.

You are incorrect. There are also telephone polls, hydro polls and concrete polls. They aren't happy, those polls....especially the polls that show Ontario with the highest Conservative support next to Alberta.

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There's only two polls, one is the voting poll and the other is the talk one hears at their coffee shops. Depending were the coffee shop is does make a difference. High unemployment, which be Ontario for one, they aren't happy and I don't think Harper will get a majority and he'll lose some in Ontario.

Topaz you're so out of touch. Harper is polling better in Ontario than he ever has at 44%. Dalton the mistake has p'd off so many people here that it's going to be a completely blue province again by the end of the year.

Check your facts again.

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Your analysis of the polls doesn't seem to fit with that of polsters. There is no need to win many more or even any more seats in Quebec. With a few more seats in Ontario, BC, and the Atlantic provinces, the Conservatives will be over the line. The analysis of the Star's data also does say that the regional breakdown is in the Conservative's favour. It also has their support in Quebec at the same level as that of the Liberals, which may even translate into another seat or two there, at the expense of the Bloc.

Quebec has 75 ridings out of the 308 total. With the CPC penned at around 9-13 ridings in Quebec, that means they need about 145 from the ROC, from the 233 remaining ex-Quebec. That's 62% of them, or almost 2/3. That's a tall order.
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Quebec has 75 ridings out of the 308 total. With the CPC penned at around 9-13 ridings in Quebec, that means they need about 145 from the ROC, from the 233 remaining ex-Quebec. That's 62% of them, or almost 2/3. That's a tall order.

Ontario has 1/3 of the ridings in Canada. If the Conservatives keep up their current numbers in Ontario, they'll have no problem winning and majority of Ontario's seats. They also should win a majority of seats in MB and maybe even N+L. They'll also win pretty much all of Alberta and Saskatchewan and at least what they have in BC. They only need 12 seats.

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I've said it before and I'll say it again, you need to start taking your meds.

You need to get a life and stop with the adhominem.

This is reported.

This is a party that is openly challenging a lot of charges with Elections Canada.. don't think the elections act would be out of bounds if they had a majority.

Actually that grave will definately be reopened with electoral financing... and the opposition essentially powerless to stop it.

I don't think I will see a Conservative majority in Canada personally.

Edited by William Ashley
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I don't think polls are useless at all but I don't think polls outside of a campaign are that important or are a good prediction of what will happen.
That's a truism in US politics where presidential candidates are not well known. I disagree in this case. Voters have seen Harper, Duceppe and Layton in several elections already. Ignatieff is perhaps less well known but he carries the baggage of the Liberal Party and hasn't distinguished himself really. By all accounts, when teh campaign starts, teh end result will be the same as now.

This upcoming federal election will be trench warfare. The Tories stand to gain a few seats in Ontario and a few seats in Newfoundland. The polls imply that they will apparently hold on to their Quebec City seats. They need about 15 seats more to have a bare majority and recent polls suggest that they are within striking distance.

IMV, the unknown factor - something few pundits are now mentioning but which Harper is perfectly aware of - is how some Quebecers will vote. If during the campaign it becomes clear that the Conservatives will win a majority, then I suspect that some Quebec voters will leave the Bloc and vote Tory. This would give the Tories some safety seats.

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I saw a poll recently that almost half of Canadians would be comfortable with a Conservative majority. That means not only are Conservative voters all right with such an occurrence.....but some Liberals and NDP voters would be OK with it as well.

don't hesitate to provide a linked reference to said poll, hey? On the other hand...

oh wait... from this weeks Nanos Polling: an ever declining, post 2007 'comfort level', with a Harper Conservative majority government... wouldn't you agree? :lol:
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Mandatory minimums for non-violent crimes is one policy I cannot accept. In doing so, people will be dealt with not by justice or intelligence but by the inhuman face of the system.

Does the Harper government want such a thing? I too think it's an insane notion. (Unless the "mandatory minimum" is roughly nothing, and remains dependent on the circumstances. :) )

Edited by bloodyminded
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IMV, the unknown factor - something few pundits are now mentioning but which Harper is perfectly aware of - is how some Quebecers will vote. If during the campaign it becomes clear that the Conservatives will win a majority, then I suspect that some Quebec voters will leave the Bloc and vote Tory. This would give the Tories some safety seats.

I think you are quite right about this, August! Historically, Quebec has shown that it would go along with any obvious majority movement. Look at how well Mulroney did in Quebec and then later how Chretien was able to put a lock on so many Quebec seats.

Quebecers seem smart enough to realize that an opposition party can't do anything for them. That might seem to be a bit weak when you consider the success of the BQ but even there, it's not so much that they are an opposition party as the fact that the Bloc is always large enough to ensure "bribery" to keep Quebec from separating.

It boils down to Quebecers vote for what's best for Quebecers. If it looks like Harper is going to get a majority then it is certainly reasonable to expect a LOT of last minute support from Quebec voters!

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You are supposed to report quietly, not post that you've "reported".

:lol:

Kinda gives away the "surprise factor" ,does'nt it???

That rule is designed to minimize rancor. You can PM the need to file a report, I suppose but you're not supposed to use the "reported" function to threaten or flame.

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I think you are quite right about this, August! Historically, Quebec has shown that it would go along with any obvious majority movement. Look at how well Mulroney did in Quebec and then later how Chretien was able to put a lock on so many Quebec seats.

Mulroney had his other ways to get his Quebec ridings, if I recall correctly.

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Topaz you're so out of touch. Harper is polling better in Ontario than he ever has at 44%. Dalton the mistake has p'd off so many people here that it's going to be a completely blue province again by the end of the year.

Check your facts again.

Is Ontario really this stupid that they can't distinguish between provincial and federal politics? Mike Harris pushed them towards the Liberals, while Dalton McGuinty pushes them towards the Conservatives? Is that really true? If so, God help us (and I'm an atheist).
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