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Con 43 Lib 24 NDP 16 BQ 10 Green 6

Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservatives begin an election campaign this weekend far ahead of their political rivals in public favour and would be poised to win a “comfortable” majority if Canadians cast their votes now, a new poll has found.....

http://www.nationalpost.com/news/Tories+begin+election+ahead+Liberals+poll/4498903/story.html

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Amazing. With these numbers, the Tories would literally sweep the country outside of Quebec, and pick up something like 5 - 10 seats inside Quebec. I mean, The Liberals and NDP would pretty much go away in BC, and the Conservatives would decimate the opposition on the prairies (I'm talking pretty much every seat). The Liberals would be relegated to Toronto, Montreal, and some parts of the maritimes. The NDP would be...well....halved, or so. The Bloc would even be taken down a peg.

Edited by Smallc

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It's very early,but I would'nt want to go into an election if I was the opposition with those numbers.It tells me that the ethical narrative is'nt working and the votes against the budget are helping the Tories...

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Polls are polls. People say whatever on the phone, or online. 19 times of 20 etc.

If these reports filter down in Quebec and have credibility, I'm curious about the result.

I'm also curious to know what soft-NDP, anti-Harper voters will do if they know that Harper might win a majority.

Edited by August1991

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It's very early,but I would'nt want to go into an election if I was the opposition with those numbers.It tells me that the ethical narrative is'nt working and the votes against the budget are helping the Tories...

I think Libya is playing. It is the lead on the News everyday and it highlights the what the opposition is running against Military spending. I mean if I hear the Liberals say jets one more time I will jump out a window they are losing Canadians. Avoid that topic right now.

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Interesting, I think it shows that the public are fed up with trumped up scandals, the public doesn't care if Kenney used the wrong letter head or Oda had someone stamp not on a document... IMO they see the opposition as nothing but blowhards trying to grab power at any cost, rather than concentrating on the economy and pass legislation....

Polls can change in a wink though..

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Interesting, I think it shows that the public are fed up with trumped up scandals, the public doesn't care if Kenney used the wrong letter head or Oda had someone stamp not on a document... IMO they see the opposition as nothing but blowhards trying to grab power at any cost, rather than concentrating on the economy and pass legislation....

Polls can change in a wink though..

They can indeed. As I recall there was some suggestion during the 2008 election that the Tories might pass the magic number, but they fell back at the end.

Still, I'm feeling there may be a trend here. It's very possible that the Tories will pass the mark. But we don't even have an election yet, so we'll see. The political highway is littered with the road kill of "sure wins". I still can't get past the impression that Harper doesn't want this election.

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Apparently there is another poll out tomorrow that is showing different results. Ipsos Reid polling tends to favour the Conservatives more than the other pollsters.

Edited by Harry

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The trend over the last few months has been the more the opposition complains, the better the government's numbers are. Sure, Polls can change, but only a crazy person would roll the dice with numbers and a trend line like that.

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Apparently there is another poll out tomorrow that is showing different results. Ipsos Reid polling tends to favour the Conservatives more than the other pollsters.

There is always another poll that shows different results the question is what is the trend from the last poll.

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There is always another poll that shows different results the question is what is the trend from the last poll.

There have been occasional spikes up and down, but almost all polls have shown a gradual upward trend overall for the CPC in recent months. They also clearly show the increases in support come when the opposition is attacking them most directly.

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Very seriously, since the advent of call display, all poll results should be preceeded with a disclaimer saying "X% of people who don't have a life or are very lonely think .............."

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There have been occasional spikes up and down, but almost all polls have shown a gradual upward trend overall for the CPC in recent months. They also clearly show the increases in support come when the opposition is attacking them most directly.
Bryan, you make good points.

But underneath all, the anti-Harper posters won't listen to you/read you. My response is to play other themes.

Edited by August1991

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Very seriously, since the advent of call display, all poll results should be preceeded with a disclaimer saying "X% of people who don't have a life or are very lonely think .............."

:lol:

One time I was called for a poll for the provincial government here...

The early twentysomething telemarketer could'nt even pronounce the word "legislation" properly...

She kept calling it "Leggislation"...

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:lol:

One time I was called for a poll for the provincial government here...

The early twentysomething telemarketer could'nt even pronounce the word "legislation" properly...

She kept calling it "Leggislation"...

The last time I took a call from a pollster, the poor guy had such a thick accent I honestly couldn't understand him at all. What a waste in so many ways.

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Very seriously, since the advent of call display, all poll results should be preceeded with a disclaimer saying "X% of people who don't have a life or are very lonely think .............."
Perhaps. But it is the perception of people that matters.

I am genuinely interested how some French Canadians will change their vote if they believe that Harper's Conservatives will form a majority government. I'm also curious to know how some English Canadian voters will change their vote if they believe that Harper will win a majority.

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Apparently there is another poll out tomorrow that is showing different results. Ipsos Reid polling tends to favour the Conservatives more than the other pollsters.

EKOS' poll is late this week. It's usually out on thursday. They usually show something contradictory to the overall trend, it would be consistent on their part if they showed lower CPC numbers this week, followed by a poll that follows the overall trend next week.

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Deffinetly a bad news poll for the opposition .

However there still has bein no campaign,television debates,etc,etc.

Much can swing still

If the polls don't improve for the opposition in 2 weeks then there will be a growing concern.

WWWTT

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There have been occasional spikes up and down, but almost all polls have shown a gradual upward trend overall for the CPC in recent months. They also clearly show the increases in support come when the opposition is attacking them most directly.

That's my take on it too, the more rabid the opposition appears, and the more it seems all they care about is bringing down the gov't instead of caring about the economy etc. etc. the worse it gets for them.

We don't need an answer from Ignatieff about his being part of the coalition, his signature is on the document, which btw, has just recently been removed from the LPC website. Guess they know this still doesn't fly well with the voters either.

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the more rabid the opposition appears, and the more it seems all they care about is bringing down the gov't instead of caring about the economy etc. etc. the worse it gets for them.

Any interviews that I have seen, including McGuinty this morning, show an opposition that intends to take the high road and attack policy as opposed to personalizing the fight. My guess is that will resonate with the electorate and we'll see a vastly different set of numbers by the end of next week. If the "Harper Government" thinks this will be a cake walk... well...

Edited by Shakeyhands

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I've said it before but it bears repeating, especially here in Toronto. In the Rob Ford campaign, The Star threw everything they could at Rob Ford, regardless of truth or substance - and still to this day call him a buffoon. People saw through it and it actually ended up HELPING Ford because it was so overt. They have been doing the same with the Conservatives and I think a new segment of the population is seeing The Star for what it is - a Liberal mouthpiece. So like Ford, their negative reporting is starting to actually HELP Harper. At worst, it's starting to fall on deaf ears. Many people outside of rabid partisans, no longer see Harper as "scary" or the Conservatives as "Far Right Wing". It was silly to begin with.

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Perhaps. But it is the perception of people that matters.

I am genuinely interested how some French Canadians will change their vote if they believe that Harper's Conservatives will form a majority government. I'm also curious to know how some English Canadian voters will change their vote if they believe that Harper will win a majority.

I quite agree, August! It's the perception that really matters!

We've talked before about how Quebec historically has gotten behind a majority trend. We may see a bit of that again. Obviously, MPs from a majority government can bring home a lot more pork than others.

The question about voters in TROC is even more interesting. I still remember the Ontario election, where everyone I talked to felt that David Petersen no longer deserved a majority and thus voted NDP, intending to reduce him to a minority as a lesson not to take voters for granted. Of course, the morning after showed that too many people had the same idea and Bob Rae squeaked in with a razor-thin majority! Perhaps something similar might happen with Harper.

The mitigating factor to that idea is that Canadians seem genuinely to believe that even an arrogant Harper is a better choice than Ignatieff. Still, as Scrib says, it's early and anything could happen. I was going to make a joke about how Harper could be caught with a pair of 15 year old twin doxies but I refrain. The man is just too boring for that to ever even be suggested as a joke! :lol:

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I'm also curious to know what soft-NDP, anti-Harper voters will do if they know that Harper might win a majority.

Embrace the horror.

Most people probably think they know what they want until they actually get it. The only thing that's going to cure Canada of it's swing towards conservatism is to rub it's nose in it, hard, so bring it on. We might as well give Harper what he wants and get it over with.

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We don't need an answer from Ignatieff about his being part of the coalition, his signature is on the document, which btw, has just recently been removed from the LPC website.

Wow, that's amazing! Good catch. :lol:

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