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William Ashley

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http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/Canada-housing-bubble-deemed-cbc-1315688945.html

Forcasters are stating that housing prices may drop by as much as 25% - this while household debt is at its highest levels, with peoples house as their major collateral offset (although banked by mortgages, asset depreciation, upkeep and interest charges, and property taxes (and other fee potentials).

This while inflation is at its highest rate (although not necessarily all bad since peoples owing is worth less), although this "might be shortterm" high inflation, this as new 100 dollar bills are being brought into circulation.

All in all, if the housing market declines by 25% this WITH the hike on downpayments, will that price drop just counter balance the downpayment hike? None the less it would likely reflect 25% less revenues on house transfer taxes etc..

I think this is likely to effect the most populus parts of Canada the most - cities.

If interest rates GO UP however it offsets a bit on mortgage primes... hence subprime..escalating house sales and the bubble BUT the catch is that bonds will be less attractive reducing the 1/4 trillion dollar in bonds sales each year that end up being a "bottom line" for new debt.

Its is probably just :the sky is falling: talk; however I'm really optimistic this will reduce long term federal debt, even if it also means less revenues. - it just means increased scale back - or now we are getting into the area.

Of course greece was bailed out again so that downturn can't be expected until the next austerity measure fails.

Debt needs to be kept in check the only people profiting are the banks, and they don't value with high inflation if they hold domestic currency - they are forced to transfer to assets.. and that means less borrowing reserves.. and that is just what happened with the US that had the fed bail out banks. Canada gave money when they "didn't need it".. now Canada is approaching a trillion dollars of federal debt forward projected... how can it afford to bail out Canadian banks, there are only 5... or so.. and even one collapse or default on a bank in Canada seems unthinkable for the monetary value, because banks can only borrow so much money out.

I think this is an issue that may not really be an issue for a year or two if so, however it is something that really needs to be looked into the whole idea of the government allowing banks to bank on mortgages if so.. they should only be able to provide mortgages with excess assets. I'm not 100% if books are involved in Canada like this US but banking with money that doesn't exist is to the core dangerous to the public and that trust.

THE REAL alternative is that the government make money to borrow that the banks don't have rather than giving the banks money the government doesn't have cause it is in debt. The system seems to work alot better and instead of having bonds the government can just ciruclate new money, leading to inflation but it seems more efficient because money changes less hands, and new debt isn't created.. but hold on the poor person would win eh, and people with money would be worth less... my gosh hold the rich accountable for public debt? Unthinkable. That is the problem with currency but there should be anti hoarding mechanisms (antigreed) and inflation and printing is that way.

The houses are out there, the people are out there. What gives.

Yet this mean the cad seems to be on its way to subpar with the USD (and that is with the 30% decline or so in US global value over the last couple years)

USD really has to perform bad considering the EUROzone issues.

Either the cad drops or housing prices is my bet.. either way interest rates seems posed to decide who is the winner on that flipflop.

How is this relevant you might ask. Well it does a lot to determine forecasts and value of spending.

The catch is unemployed people don't buy houses.... you need to employ people or pay them with houses... the bottom line is that the unemployment rate, and wage rates are pinnacle for housing sales. And jobs have to be in areas with housing starts. Its not new jobs that matter in as much as "jobs in areas with houses up for sale or finished construction"

If the government really cares about unemployment it won't downsize the public sector by 5% without insuring a 5% increase in the private sector because a 15% increase is needed to iron things out.

The WAGE increases are also issued now for a 4 year contract when locked in on a basis of dollar value loss and inflation rate increase. If inflation over 4 years amounts to more than 7.7% canada posts (and the public sectors) contracts don't equal wage hikes, they are actually pay losses.. unless adjusted for inflation.

The current rate is about 3% so over 4 years that is a 12% loss it equals a 5% pay loss over 4 years,and inflation is on the increase meaning the loss could be more than 5%. This is what is perhaps that 5% savings ..... everyone locked into 7% 4 year contracts are loosing 5% of their salary base based on inflation rate increases.

http://thechronicleherald.ca/Canada/1251052.html

If Greece defaults again (and in this environment it might take all the indebted people in greece moving to other EU contries that pay higher wages. None the less it is a weird mixture not seen since the US went off.

The "global" recession to continue for another 4+ years is rather gloomy.

However it does make the budget cuts easier when the dollars and cents do it for you rather than program fund amounts.

Its really unfortunate that regional rates arn't included in the federal contracts as they really do reflect how much people are getting paid for their work based on CLI.

I'm rather pleased overall with the prospects of inflation though.. of course, there is a threshold that needs to be set based on CLI baseline and minimum wage rates in each given province to keep things sane.

Yukon appears to have a good thing going with locking it in to the Consumer price index.

Edited by William Ashley

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Can we expect some proper grammar or spelling?

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I dunno, but a 25% or more like a 75% drop in the housing prices in Vancouver would be nice as hell. Might bring it back closer to reality.

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I dunno, but a 25% or more like a 75% drop in the housing prices in Vancouver would be nice as hell. Might bring it back closer to reality.

In my area, over recent years, housing prices went to levels that the resulting mortgage payments, even with extremely low interest rates, were out of control. My payment, on a $230,000 principal mortgage with a 15 year amortization, is about $1800 per month. That works well.

When you multiply that by about three, the required income to service that kind of debt and the property tax payments that go with it zoom to around $400,000 to $500,000 a year. There are truthfully not many people who can handle those payments. I know I couldn't.

Any my municipality has lots of houses still in the $1,000,000 range. Not mine, but others.

Sounds, from Bonam's post, that Vancourver is in the same boat.

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Sounds, from Bonam's post, that Vancourver is in the same boat.

Yup. Detached home prices in the area are averaging around a million. Condos are less, but still, it's kinda crazy.

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I dunno, but a 25% or more like a 75% drop in the housing prices in Vancouver would be nice as hell. Might bring it back closer to reality.
Vancouver market is driven by new money flowing from China. This money is used to buy houses that the owners live in so it is not real estate speculation. This massive flood of money coming into the market creates chain reactions as long time residents flush with $1 million+ cash from a sale to Chinese down grade to townhouses or condos.

In short, I would not bet on a large correction in Vancouver as long as that money is coming from China.

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In short, I would not bet on a large correction in Vancouver as long as that money is coming from China.

The purchases had better be all-cash or with a minimal mortgage.

The trouble with your logice is layed out in my post. High home prices generally equal high mortgage payments, which need high ongoing incomes to service. I consider myself a decent earner; I could not afford $200,000 in mortgage payments a year. In the real world not many can.

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The purchases had better be all-cash or with a minimal mortgage.
That is my point. The houses are being bought with cash and then that cash is used to inflate the prices of lower tier houses as the money flows a chain of sellers and buyers.

You need to remember that high real estate prices are not much of a barrier for people who are already in the market since they only pay the differential.

Edited by TimG

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The purchases had better be all-cash or with a minimal mortgage.

The trouble with your logice is layed out in my post. High home prices generally equal high mortgage payments, which need high ongoing incomes to service. I consider myself a decent earner; I could not afford $200,000 in mortgage payments a year. In the real world not many can.

Our 3.7% inflation, not to mention the warnings of both Flaherty and the BoC head all show that interest rates are going to head up, soon. Then the payments on all these half million dollar mortgages start ballooning - and things pop.

OTOH, a story in the Vancouver Sun this morning which I didn't read had a headline saying Vancouver house prices were expected to increase 13% this year.

Perhaps the non-mortgaged Chinese buyers syndrome is working.

Edited by RNG

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Homeowners will a locked in mortgage won't have to worry right now but those credit lines aren't lock in and that's will probably cause more hardship for people that the mortgages.

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Homeowners will a locked in mortgage won't have to worry right now but those credit lines aren't lock in and that's will probably cause more hardship for people that the mortgages.

?

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Homeowners will a locked in mortgage won't have to worry right now but those credit lines aren't lock in and that's will probably cause more hardship for people that the mortgages.

Everyone is a tenant, a renter - You either rent from the bank then rent to a tenant and call yourself land lord. Or you call yourself a property owner who lives under a fuedal system...but you still pay tribute to Mr. Big...In the end other than leaving your kids with money through the liquidation of an estate...you are just a common tenant who lives in the illusion that a mortgage signifys ownership - You own nothing.

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Nothing will be surprised in this mad world, no matter drop 25% or increase 25%.

Even increase, what can anyone happy about if with inflating.

Too many people live on debt.

Debt means Banks take interest.

Inflating means more money in use so the value of the money lost.

Those who add more money to the world takes the amount of the value others lost.

This will happen again and again when the greedy large interest groups takes more and more, and it will never end.

What they really want is make everyone slave by taking away all money from everyone all over the world.

Edited by bjre

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Nothing will be surprised in this mad world, no matter drop 25% or increase 25%.

Even increase, what can anyone happy about if with inflating.

Too many people live on debt.

Debt means Banks take interest.

Inflating means more money in use so the value of the money lost.

Those who add more money to the world takes the amount of the value others lost.

This will happen again and again when the greedy large interest groups takes more and more, and it will never end.

What they really want is make everyone slave by taking away all money from everyone all over the world.

Money represents material. Material is matter. There is a fixed and finite amount of material matter in the world. For one faction to become strikingly rich - they must accumumlate matter. The super rich who have the biggest pile of matter can only achieve this feat by making someone elses pile of matter smaller or non-existant. This is greed. It is to take more that you can use and once you have that you coerce and torment and dominate the one you have robbed. Greed is some perverse attempt at being what some percieve as god. It really is a futile endevour to attempt to dominiate your neighbour....It is insane..No matter how much you accumulate and dominate...The thrill of power will be fleeting and we all end up crapping our pants on a death bed...all rendered powerless crying out for our mama.

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Homeowners will a locked in mortgage won't have to worry right now but those credit lines aren't lock in and that's will probably cause more hardship for people that the mortgages.

I'm referring to a very different problem; the fixed amount of the monthly payments. My payments are based on a $230,000 mortgage. The world looks very different with a $2,300,000 mortgage.

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Everyone is a tenant, a renter - You either rent from the bank then rent to a tenant and call yourself land lord. Or you call yourself a property owner who lives under a fuedal system...but you still pay tribute to Mr. Big...In the end other than leaving your kids with money through the liquidation of an estate...you are just a common tenant who lives in the illusion that a mortgage signifys ownership - You own nothing.

For over 14 years now, I have owned my homes, all three of them, outright. The only way to fly.

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When it comes to our real estate market, what makes Canada different is that it relies almost completely off immigration. We have the most immigration per capita than any other country on earth.

Also, when it comes to these topics, I do not pay attention to Canadian institutions and take them with a grain of salt. I do not trust in Canadian intellectuals. I do however trust American ones and definitely listen when they speak about these kinds of topics.

I can say that 500,000 people a year move here to take advantage of our system. That also includes getting into home.

Jobs who cares? They come with a life savings, a down-payment, and then see an ethnic mortgage brokers that serve the community in their language. They get 'helped' with their mortgage applications shall we say.

If this train keeps continuing with our endless demand for homes from the 3rd world flooding into Canada each year.. terrorist nations Like Pakistan. Well, I can't see how prices are just going to drop.

It's all supply and demand.

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Everyone is a tenant, a renter - You either rent from the bank then rent to a tenant and call yourself land lord. Or you call yourself a property owner who lives under a fuedal system...but you still pay tribute to Mr. Big...In the end other than leaving your kids with money through the liquidation of an estate...you are just a common tenant who lives in the illusion that a mortgage signifys ownership - You own nothing.

Couldn't have said it better.

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Couldn't have said it better.

Is your contention thnat we are beholden to the vested interests in the financial services sector???

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Can we expect some proper grammar or spelling?

No as my posts are altered to insert typos. Common complaint but it is seeded because my posts are altered to insert typos and word changes. It is part attacks against me to damage peoples impression of me.

Nutso talk as that is the image they are making of me. But it is a trap both ways, if I tell the truth I sound like a nut, if I say nothing I look like one. It is very complex and well over my head to rectify.

It ain't just typos, there are mass movements to limit and damage me by this I mean economic, academic, interpersonal. Things like administrative delays, errors of transmission and countless other activities. Oddly though it isn't a complete blackout or offing, I don't get that but that is what is happening. I've even been framed in court. There seems to be a complicit allowance from people with ability to act. Nut talk I recognize that, but that is the situation.

Edited by William Ashley

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No as my posts are altered to insert typos. Common complaint but it is seeded because my posts are altered to insert typos and word changes. It is part attacks against me to damage peoples impression of me.

...

It ain't just typos, there are mass movements to limit and damage me by this I mean economic, academic, interpersonal. Things like administrative delays, errors of transmission and countless other activities.

:lol:

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Everyone is a tenant, a renter - You either rent from the bank then rent to a tenant and call yourself land lord. Or you call yourself a property owner who lives under a fuedal system...but you still pay tribute to Mr. Big...In the end other than leaving your kids with money through the liquidation of an estate...you are just a common tenant who lives in the illusion that a mortgage signifys ownership - You own nothing.

There is one catch to this though if Mr. Big Pays you first then you give them a cut as scotage. So in reality not everyone is at the bottom of the Feudal system.

My property taxes are paid by the government to another branch of that government.

Also if I were to file my taxes I would get a return. I do however still get stuck with HST/GST (on goods purchased) seriously makes me consider filing for a return of those taxes, I can do it down the road if I opt to.

Overall though the government gives me more money annually then I give it. You say deadbeat, I say I live free.

Oddly even royal lands may not be free demense anymore... due to for instance the UK lands registry, registering all land in UK. There was tons unclaimed (like 1/3rd of England). (I did contact the UK gov before the deadline to put in a hereditary claim)

In this respect the whole fuedal aspect is problematic to say the least since it is more "overlordship" in the commonwealth republic than fides that is mutual dues and loyalty doesn't truely exist aside from any specific laws.. and there are basically no citizenship rules for jus sanguis in Canada on specific capacities to "revoke" under certian guidelines. In that respect it is a membership that is inherited that need not perform oaths of Loyalty to the crown. Citizenship oaths are only required for naturalization, and officers of the crown.

Also tenant rights grant that if residence is continuaous then there is a natural deed. Property taxes aside, while there can be sale a continued squatting of lands holds the lands under squatters rights. The tresspassing laws need to be examined in that contexted due to restrictions on possession vs. title.

http://www.aaron.ca/columns/2004-02-28.htm

The lands registry systems are in question depending on where you are in Canada.

http://www.mycanadianrealestatelaw.com/rightsofway.html

The courts still may ultimately decide but true title in Canada is problematic, since the land acquisitions are either voided due to potential extinguishable of parties or false claim. --- the issue is in that area though that people just won't accept the truth for the basis of the status quo.

Edited by William Ashley

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