Jump to content
Political Discussion Forums

Recommended Posts

Shady already posted the link, RCP's aggregate has Romney up in the electoral college by five points. That link assumes that states leaning one way or the other will go to the respective candidate. It seems you don't really understand what the electoral college is considering you're posting a Gallup poll that divides the country up in four geographical regions. I guess not having a clue about what's actually being discussed is par for the course with socialists on MLW...

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 872
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Shady already posted the link, RCP's aggregate has Romney up in the electoral college by five points. That link assumes that states leaning one way or the other will go to the respective candidate. It seems you don't really understand what the electoral college is considering you're posting a Gallup poll that divides the country up in four geographical regions. I guess not having a clue about what's actually being discussed is par for the course with socialists on MLW...

Actually, I guess you're too bloody busy trolling to catch the actual error that I made. Not surprising, since you don't have a clue what you're talking about.

The Gallup Poll that Shady has been referencing, the one that shows Romney ahead, divides their results up by regions.

Here's the crosstab by region:

. Obama Romney Margin

. East 52 48 O+4

. Midwest 52 48 O+4

. South 39 61 R+22

. West 53 47 O+6

Notice how Romney is only ahead significantly in the South?

Gallup has Romney leading 50-46 over Obama.

If you look at the graph above, that's not what it says, is it?

That's because I screwed up. The graph that I posted above is a graph showing equal weighting between each region.

If you weight the votes equally between the four regions that Gallup has used to represent the data, it's not 50-46 for Romney. You get 49-47 Romney.

You didn't notice that though, because you have no idea what you're talking about and you don't pay any attention whatsoever to what people post.

Below is how the results need to be weighted in order to give Romney a 50-46 lead.

gallup1.jpg

Look at those numbers.

What a mess.

Why would Gallup weigh their results 10% higher in the South, where Romney's leading?

Does the South have 10% more electoral college votes than each other region?

Of course not.

So what we need to figure out is what states Gallup includes in their four-region breakdown and find out what the distribution of electoral college seats are by those regions. That would give a more valid model for predicting the outcome of the election based on their most recent data.

I don't know what the result of that would be. Maybe Romney would be ahead even more. Maybe not. Who knows.

What I do know is that Gallup's weighting is off, significantly.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Who cares about regional distribution when we're speaking about the electoral college? You're changing the subject and I'm not going to follow you down another irrelevant tangent. Like I said, you might as well tell me that Texas is a toss up because Austin and Dallas have Obama leading...

Shady's original point stands.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm not saying the polls are suspect now that they're favouring Romney. The South region has the largest population in the US. I'm saying that the weighting seems to be off and that it doesn't translate to the electoral college. To get a better picture of how much Romney is leading, this needs to be translated into electoral college votes. At least a hypothetical consideration of electoral college votes.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Gallup created that regional distribution. Blame them.

Why are you bringing it up in a discussion which is explicitly about the electoral college? Answer - You don't understand the electoral college and ignored the RCP link that Shady provided.

Link to post
Share on other sites

So anyway, back to my point about the electoral college.

Their votes are distributed this way (according to the states that Gallup puts into these categories).

East 26%

Midwest 24%

South 27%

West 23%

This is a far cry from how they actually sampled it to create the national figure that gives Romney a 50-46 lead. They over weighted the south by a margin of +5.5% and underweighted the rest (East -3.5%, Midwest -1.5%, and West -0.5%).

If you want a more realistic picture of Romney's lead, then those are the numbers you need to crunch to see the electoral college distribution.

Edited by cybercoma
Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, because RCP's outlook on the electoral college actually takes in account the electoral votes assigned to the states and the aggregate of the most recent polls in those states. Why actually talk about the electoral college when you can use an arbitrary and largely irrelevant regional distribution to spin in favour of your false narrative of Obama's inevitable reelection?

Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, because RCP's outlook on the electoral college actually takes in account the electoral votes assigned to the states and the aggregate of the most recent polls in those states. Why actually talk about the electoral college when you can use an arbitrary and largely irrelevant regional distribution to spin in favour of your false narrative of Obama's inevitable reelection?

Are you illiterate? Because I'm pretty sure the distribution that I just posted still puts Romney in the lead. Feel free to stop embarrassing yourself any time now.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Time and time again the Republicans fail to convince the Latinos to vote for them even though in many respects regarding values the Latinos are closer to the Republicans than the Democrats. It seems to be indelible in people's minds that as the Latinos are generally poorer than the US population on average so they are more at home voting for the Democrats. Florida, a state which is forecast to be the first in the US where the Latinos will become the single largest demographic-group, is going Obama's way even though as long as the Comunists are in power in Cuba one would expect it to go every time to the Republicans as they are deemed as tougher on Cuba.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Time and time again the Republicans fail to convince the Latinos to vote for them even though in many respects regarding values the Latinos are closer to the Republicans than the Democrats. It seems to be indelible in people's minds that as the Latinos are generally poorer than the US population on average so they are more at home voting for the Democrats. Florida, a state which is forecast to be the first in the US where the Latinos will become the single largest demographic-group, is going Obama's way even though as long as the Comunists are in power in Cuba one would expect it to go every time to the Republicans as they are deemed as tougher on Cuba.

Hello in Finland!

People will vote for privilege and thus the Democrats, rather than the Constitution when they have no allegiance to the Constitution. They do ideologically align with the Republicans but hey,,,get better benefits from the Democrats who essentially buy their votes.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Florida, a state which is forecast to be the first in the US where the Latinos will become the single largest demographic-group, is going Obama's way even though as long as the Comunists are in power in Cuba one would expect it to go every time to the Republicans as they are deemed as tougher on Cuba.

Nope, you're uninformed my friend. Florida is going for Romney.

Edited by Shady
Link to post
Share on other sites

The other national polls are a dead heat, and have been for quite some time now.

Yes, but the ones that show a dead heat also had Romney behind by several points not that long ago. They reflect the general trend of Romneys momentum. Gallup has Romney at 52. Rasmussen has him at 49. Wall street/NBC has him at 47. It each of those Obama is trailing Romney or at best tied after being up just a few weeks ago.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Derek L

Which doesn't fit with other polls, as you already know.

Yet, four years ago, using the same method:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111112/gallup-daily-obama-ahead-51-41.aspx

Gallup Daily: Obama Ahead, 51% to 41%

His advantage could be as narrow as 7 points, depending on likely voters

PRINCETON, NJ -- Voter preferences in the presidential race continue to be generally auspicious for Barack Obama's election prospects only three weeks ahead of the eve of Election Day. Obama leads McCain by 10 percentage points, 51% to 41%, among all registered voters, according to Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Oct. 10-12.

In the end, didn't Obama get ~52% to McCain's ~44%?

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.




  • Tell a friend

    Love Political Discussion Forums? Tell a friend!
×
×
  • Create New...