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No politician that loses Independents by double digits wins elections.

That may be so. But the polls indicate Obama has the momentum, and that support has to be coming from somewhere.

Time to question the integrity of the polls again. laugh.png

Edited by BubberMiley
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Oh my! I wonder if the folks buying at InTrade know about this! laugh.png

Denver Mayor Michael Hancock has been busy pushing for President Obama’s re-election — appearing on stage Tuesday before former President Bill Clinton’s speech and even heading to Milwaukee on Sunday to push for the Badger State’s vote.

Hancock even broke news on that Wisconsin trip, telling voters if the election were to be held right now the president would lose Wisconsin and its coveted 10 electoral votes.

http://blogs.denverpost.com/thespot/2012/10/31/denver-mayor-michael-hancock-stumps-obama-wisconsin-early-voting-favor-president/85190/

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Oh my! I wonder if the folks buying at InTrade know about this! laugh.png

Oh my! An anecdote from a guy from another state! Throw out all the polling data. The mayor of Denver knows the future!

But if you think Intrade has it wrong, you do know you could more than triple your money if you put it on Romney right now and he wins, right? Credit cards will advance you money. Gather all your stuff and pawn it! Put it all in! You'd be a fool not to.

Edited by BubberMiley
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Shady there are more Republicans who hate their party so much they are saying they are Indies. That clouds the polls. These polls Obama is winning have more people saying they are Conservatives Then anything else and Obama is running away with it now.

Yep, you said the same exact thing 2 years ago. This is just another replay of the mid-terms.

News Week have the Dems with a 5 point advantage in the generic ballot. In Iowa and Ohio where early voting has started Dems are returning ballots 5 to 1 compared to Republicans. They will fight hard and lose some seats but for Republicans to set the bar so high they were dumb to do so.

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Oh my! I wonder if the InTrade crowd knows about this?

Pew on early voters: Romney leads Obama, running far ahead of McCain ’08

The Pew Research Center survey found that the race is even among all likely voters nationwide (47% Obama, 47% Romney). Unlike the last campaign, the race also is close among voters who say they have already voted.

In the poll, conducted Oct. 24-28, 19% of likely voters say they have already voted; that is unchanged from the same week in the 2008 campaign (Oct. 23-26, 2008). Currently, Romney holds a seven-point edge among early voters (50% to 43%); because of the small sample, this lead is not statistically significant. At this point four years ago, Obama led John McCain by 19 points (53% to 34%) among early voters.

http://www.people-pr...game-advantage/

Edited by Shady
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Oh my! I wonder if the InTrade crowd knows about this?

You know Shady, I was really starting to think O is gonna pull this off. I mean, after you hear EVERY SINGLE political forecaster and EVERY SINGLE betting market saying so, you start to kind of believe it.

But after seeing that little snippet, I'm not so sure.

Forget the little caveat about the sample being too small to mean anything. It means so much more than all that complicated mumbo jumbo forecasters are using to make their call.

You're definitely on to something.

Edited by BC_chick
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You can cite InTrade all you want. I'll cite the fact that Romney is up with Independents by double digits. No politician that loses Independents by double digits wins elections. Obama's toast.

Holy crap Shady. I guess the loving relationship with InTrade could not last forever, what's on your horizon now??

Not to mention the other post in which your reply with double digits was 45 and 52. Hopefully this is not the kind of math that a Romney government official would approve of.

Edited by GostHacked
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Not to mention the other post in which your reply with double digits was 45 and 52. Hopefully this is not the kind of math that a Romney government official would approve of.

Have you seen Romney's plan to reduce the deficit? I think that's exactly the kind of math they're using.

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Holy crap Shady. I guess the loving relationship with InTrade could not last forever, what's on your horizon now??

Not to mention the other post in which your reply with double digits was 45 and 52. Hopefully this is not the kind of math that a Romney government official would approve of.

You're a little slow today I see. Still probably trying to figure out what year the Bush/Gore recount was. My double digit reference was to Romneys lead with independents. My 52-45 reference was to Romneys early vote lead.

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Another lie.

It's the stone cold truth. You'd realize as much if your head wasn't jammed so far up your "No Spin Zone".

It's just another pathetic lie from the usual pathetic suspects. He actually talked about states having more power when it comes to emergency situations. To statist lemmings, that means "eliminating" FEMA. It's like they don't even try anymore.

June 13, 2011 debate moderated by John King:

“FEMA is about to run out of money, and there are some people who say do it on a case-by-case basis and some people who say, you know, maybe we're learning a lesson here that the states should take on more of this role,” Mr. King said. “How do you deal with something like that?”

Romney’s response: “Absolutely. Every time you have an occasion to take something from the federal government and send it back to the states, that's the right direction. And if you can go even further and send it back to the private sector, that's even better.

“Instead of thinking in the federal budget, what we should cut – we should ask ourselves the opposite question,” Romney continued. “What should we keep? We should take all of what we're doing at the federal level and say, what are the things we're doing that we don't have to do? And those things we've got to stop doing, because we're borrowing $1.6 trillion more this year than we're taking in. We cannot ...”

King interjected: “Including disaster relief, though?”

Romney replied: “We cannot – we cannot afford to do those things without jeopardizing the future for our kids. It is simply immoral, in my view, for us to continue to rack up larger and larger debts and pass them on to our kids, knowing full well that we'll all be dead and gone before it's paid off. It makes no sense at all.”

Once again, Shady, you've managed to end up smelling like the mens' washroom after All-You-Can-Eat Wing Nite at Chuck's Grill.

-k

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let's make a little wager here:

if obama wins, shady should have to wear an I LOVE OBAMA shirt and take a photo of himself wearing it.

if romney wins, punked (or another obama fan) should wear an I LOVE ROMNEY shirt and take a photo of him/herself wearing it.

what do you say?

Edited by bud
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You're a little slow today I see. Still probably trying to figure out what year the Bush/Gore recount was. My double digit reference was to Romneys lead with independents. My 52-45 reference was to Romneys early vote lead.

Then when posting please post with clarity as all these polls are starting to mean nothing and is starting to get confusing. At least I have corrected my error, ... have you corrected yours?

So let me ask you Shady .. since poll don't matter (your words too), why are you posting so many poll results? I really want to know.

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let's make a little wager here:

if obama wins, shady should have to wear an I LOVE OBAMA shirt and take a photo of himself wearing it.

if romney wins, punked (or another obama fan) should wear an I LOVE ROMNEY shirt and take a photo of him/herself wearing it.

what do you say?

Why not switch the 'I love obama' shirt to an avatar?

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It's the stone cold truth. You'd realize as much if your head wasn't jammed so far up your "No Spin Zone".

June 13, 2011 debate moderated by John King:

Once again, Shady, you've managed to end up smelling like the mens' washroom after All-You-Can-Eat Wing Nite at Chuck's Grill.

-k

I love that transcript you provided. "We cannot afford [disaster relief] without jeopardizing the future of our kids," as if being unprepared for disasters does not itself jeopardize the future of American children.

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Mr Obama’s first term has been patchy. On the economy, the most powerful argument in his favour is simply that he stopped it all being a lot worse. America was in a downward economic spiral when he took over, with its banks and carmakers in deep trouble and unemployment rising at the rate of 800,000 a month. His responses—an aggressive stimulus, bailing out General Motors and Chrysler, putting the banks through a sensible stress test and forcing them to raise capital (so that they are now in much better shape than their European peers)—helped avert a Depression. That is a hard message to sell on the doorstep when growth is sluggish and jobs scarce; but it will win Mr Obama some plaudits from history, and it does from us too.

Did someone just let the air out of Shady's balloon?

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Mr Romney is still in the cloud-cuckoo-land of thinking you can do it entirely through spending cuts: the Republican even rejected a ratio of ten parts spending cuts to one part tax rises. Backing business is important, but getting the macroeconomics right matters far more.

A very fair article. It doesn't make out Obama to be a saint, but tells where he did well, and why Romney is just an empty suit.

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