Jump to content
Political Discussion Forums

Recommended Posts

A candidate needs 270 to win. This is my current tally:

Obama 196

California 55

Connecticut 7

Delaware 3

District of Columbia 3

Hawaii 4

Illinois 20

Maine 4

Maryland 10

Massachusetts 11

Minnesota 10

New Jersey 14

New York 29

Oregon 7

Rhode Island 4

Vermont 3

Washington 12

**********************

Romney 179

Alabama 9

Alaska 3

Arkansas 6

Georgia 16

Idaho 4

Kansas 6

Kentucky 8

Louisiana 8

Mississippi 6

Missouri 10

Montana 3

Nebraska 5

North Dakota 3

Oklahoma 7

South Carolina 9

South Dakota 3

Tennessee 11

Texas 38

Utah 6

West Virginia 5

Wisconsin 10

Wyoming 3

**************************

Undecided 163

Arizona 11

Colorado 9

Florida 29

Indiana 11

Iowa 6

Michigan 16

Nevada 6

New Hampshire 4

New Mexico 5

North Carolina 15

Ohio 18

Pennsylvania 20

Virginia 13

Link to post
Share on other sites

A candidate needs 270 to win. This is my current tally:

Obama 196

California 55

Connecticut 7

Delaware 3

District of Columbia 3

Hawaii 4

Illinois 20

Maine 4

Maryland 10

Massachusetts 11

Minnesota 10

New Jersey 14

New York 29

Oregon 7

Rhode Island 4

Vermont 3

Washington 12

**********************

Romney 179

Alabama 9

Alaska 3

Arkansas 6

Georgia 16

Idaho 4

Kansas 6

Kentucky 8

Louisiana 8

Mississippi 6

Missouri 10

Montana 3

Nebraska 5

North Dakota 3

Oklahoma 7

South Carolina 9

South Dakota 3

Tennessee 11

Texas 38

Utah 6

West Virginia 5

Wisconsin 10

Wyoming 3

**************************

Undecided 163

Arizona 11

Colorado 9

Florida 29

Indiana 11

Iowa 6

Michigan 16

Nevada 6

New Hampshire 4

New Mexico 5

North Carolina 15

Ohio 18

Pennsylvania 20

Virginia 13

Your tally sucks. Obama is up 10 in Michigan, up 9 (according to both campaigns) in Ohio, New Mexico is a weird year because Johnson is on the ballot Romney stands no chance, he is up 8 in Pennsylvania. Other then that we an agree.

Link to post
Share on other sites

With that many undecideds, this race is a long way from over. And judging from Obama's constant reacting to Romney actions(rushing down to visit LA after Romney goes, finally saying something about the embassy attacks after Romney does, etc) he's finally starting to realize that the voters aren't going to offer him a love in this time.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Today - Sept.13: Obama - 319 / Romney - 219

Nov.6 Forecast: Obama - 315 / Romney - 222

Obama is also up to 65% on Intrade. He was just over 50 last week.

Romney's reaction to the Muslim riots is being compared to McCain stopping his campaign to deal with the financial crisis. Both were deemed very unpresidential.

Others are comparing him to Nixon. Ouch.

I'm not seeing how he can bounce back anymore. His face looks defeated too.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Obama is also up to 65% on Intrade. He was just over 50 last week.

Romney's reaction to the Muslim riots is being compared to McCain stopping his campaign to deal with the financial crisis. Both were deemed very unpresidential.

Others are comparing him to Nixon. Ouch.

I'm not seeing how he can bounce back anymore. His face looks defeated too.

SPeaking of stock trading - millions bought Facebook too. B)

Link to post
Share on other sites

With that many undecideds, this race is a long way from over. And judging from Obama's constant reacting to Romney actions(rushing down to visit LA after Romney goes, finally saying something about the embassy attacks after Romney does, etc) he's finally starting to realize that the voters aren't going to offer him a love in this time.

What undecideds according to the new NBC poll there aren't even enough undecided in Ohio, Virgina, or Florida that if every undecided broke Romney that he could win. I think you need to go look at the polling from this week because you are talking like it is three months ago and it isn't. People are breaking and they are breaking hard.

Link to post
Share on other sites

538 Forecast:

Today - Sept.13: Obama - 319 / Romney - 219

Nov.6 Forecast: Obama - 315 / Romney - 222

:

Obama - 313 / Romney - 206

=======================================================================================

Obama - 332 / Romney - 206

=======================================================================================

Obama - 313 / Romney - 225

=======================================================================================

:

Obama - 332 / Romney - 206

=======================================================================================

:

Obama - 332 / Romney - 206

=======================================================================================

:

Obama - 359 / Romney - 179

=======================================================================================

:

Obama - 332 / Romney - 206

=======================================================================================

Link to post
Share on other sites

:

Obama - 313 / Romney - 206

=======================================================================================

Obama - 332 / Romney - 206

=======================================================================================

Obama - 313 / Romney - 225

=======================================================================================

:

Obama - 332 / Romney - 206

=======================================================================================

:

Obama - 332 / Romney - 206

=======================================================================================

:

Obama - 359 / Romney - 179

=======================================================================================

:

Obama - 332 / Romney - 206

=======================================================================================

Good for you - you can cut and paste. But can you think? :lol:

The Obama lead is a mile wide and an inch thick. He needs his friends in the media and polling institutions to dishearten Republicans, because we all know this will be an election decided by turnout. Republicans are motivated. Are the sloth dependency hacks at the DNC? Maybe, but I would't bet on people who's main contention is that they want more free stuff. :lol:

In typical fashion, they were motivated by colour in 2008. Not sure those same welfare queens will get off the couch this time.

Edited by JerrySeinfeld
Link to post
Share on other sites

I've been following http://www.electoral-vote.com/ since they began

Their track record is far better than any Canadian projections, including my own.

It looks like a big dependent pestule of fatness slowly rolling over onto the poor people stupid enough to rely on themselves in the world.

Edited by JerrySeinfeld
Link to post
Share on other sites
It looks like a big dependent pestule of fatness slowly rolling over onto the poor people stupid enough to rely on themselves in the world.

don't be too disheartened Jer... bear down and squeeze out one of those electoral college projections that come from your favoured non-liberal media types - I mean, there's a few around - you should check out Karl Rove's lil' effort... you know, Bush's Brain! :lol:

Link to post
Share on other sites

don't be too disheartened Jer... bear down and squeeze out one of those electoral college projections that come from your favoured non-liberal media types - I mean, there's a few around - you should check out Karl Rove's lil' effort... you know, Bush's Brain! :lol:

haha. I think my guys will lose. But hope is still with me!

As for Bush, the best thing I ever read about him was this:

"If Bush is stupid, how stupid do you have to be to be constantly outsmarted by him."

LOL!

Link to post
Share on other sites
haha. I think my guys will lose. But hope is still with me!

hope? Hope is with you? Hope & change Jer... hope & change! :lol:

As for Bush, the best thing I ever read about him was this:

"If Bush is stupid, how stupid do you have to be to be constantly outsmarted by him." LOL!

ah yes, clearly, you're a devotee of Bush revisionism? Hey Jer, keeping it timely here... why didn't the Republicans put that smart Bushy guy front and center during the campaign - why wasn't such a smart guy at the convention Jer?

Link to post
Share on other sites
Your tally sucks. Obama is up 10 in Michigan, up 9 (according to both campaigns) in Ohio, New Mexico is a weird year because Johnson is on the ballot Romney stands no chance, he is up 8 in Pennsylvania. Other then that we an agree.
I wouldn't say that Romney has to write these off just yet. I was "conservative" in giving states to either candidate (although I gave Minnesota to Obama).
I've been following http://www.electoral-vote.com/ since they began Their track record is far better than any Canadian projections, including my own.

That's a good site but it gives Pennsylvania to Obama, and I'm not so certain of that.

-----

I have to agree however that Romney just doesn't have the numbers. To win, alot of states would have to go his way in November and I don't see any game changer between now and then.

If we give Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida and, say, Virginia to Obama (all believable), then he is over 270.

The first debate is on 3 October.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I wouldn't say that Romney has to write these off just yet. I was "conservative" in giving states to either candidate (although I gave Minnesota to Obama).

That's a good site but it gives Pennsylvania to Obama, and I'm not so certain of that.

-----

I have to agree however that Romney just doesn't have the numbers. To win, alot of states would have to go his way in November and I don't see any game changer between now and then.

If we give Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida and, say, Virginia to Obama (all believable), then he is over 270.

The first debate is on 3 October.

Newest Pennsylvania poll has Obama at +11 and Romney pulled all his ads so......

Link to post
Share on other sites

Nope the polls were dead on Bush Kerry.

Exit polling data in the 04 election gave Kerry the advantage only to be wrong. But what of the current big spread on polling results? Can they all be just as accurate when the results are so conflicting?

Link to post
Share on other sites

Exit polling data in the 04 election gave Kerry the advantage only to be wrong. But what of the current big spread on polling results? Can they all be just as accurate when the results are so conflicting?

Yah exit polling is very different then polling. You know that right? The polling for 2004 was dead on.

You have to read about their models. Lets take Rasmussen just for example. They have Romney at +1 right now. Why do they have that and no one else does? Well they have weighted their polls to have more Republicans by 5%. I will now point in a presidential election in the last 40 years that Republicans have never out numbered democrats. Most other polling firms are pegging a even race some have the Dems up 4 or 5 points. Figuring what the make up of the electorate will be is key in this type of polling.

If you don't want to dig into the numbers your best bet is to go with RPC which averages all the polls out. This seems to work the best.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I wasn't aware of the Dem to Rep percentage in elections, you know your stuff punked.

Pollsters really try to peg the make up of the electorate. So they will poll and adjust for race, gender, party affiliation. They will ask each if they will vote and try from there figure what the electorate will look like. Obama is actually polling better then 2008 among RVs or registered voters but many of his voters are saying they wont make it to the booth which is why his lead is only 3-4% instead of the 7-9% it would be if everyone voted.

I agree with you though. I have read the internals of a lot of polls and they are all over the place. Some places wont even post their models so you can't even get an idea of what you are looking at. I think many pollsters are playing with their models to make this race closer then it is, weighing more Republicans then they probably should but if you don't like a poll this election wait 10 minutes there will be another one which might say what you want it.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



  • Tell a friend

    Love Political Discussion Forums? Tell a friend!
×
×
  • Create New...