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North Korea vs U.S. tensions


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The fact is no one has up to date intelligence analysis on North Korea that is accurate or reliable.

While we call can read what we want on the wire services or on inter-net none of us has the real story.

I doubt even intelligence agencies in the US, Japan, Russia, China do.

Its a wild card simply because North Korea is not an elaborate network of potential information sources that can get information

out.

It really is another Albania when Albania was a tiny closed Stalinist state only it has more land.

Satellite shows the entire country black in the night-time and in the day time the roads are empty of cars.

There has been some information smuggled out showing wide spread famine and health problems from lack of food.

What seems to be the case is a tight cult society which permeates a "Juche ideology" ( a worshipping of the first communist leader, his son and now the current grandson in charge) which is a wierd mix of Stalin, monarachy, facism and cult worship of a family line. The country's government claims all decisions are made by collectives all reporting to their current fearless leader, a fat boy of 20 who was sent to a Swiss private high school then the North Korean military academy.

All that is known about this fat boy is that he began eating excessively after his mother died from cancer suggesting he was very close to his mother which sets off a whole possible line of Freudian speculation as to his psyche.

He is said to love his grandfather. Clearly the f at boy is paraded around and is a panda bear figure head being manipulated by a faceless military regime. I doubt the fat boy makes any decisions at all. They showed him in a picture with a Korean woman who they will not officially acknowledge as his wife.

Interestingly his hair cut is not one of the 28 officially sanctioned or allowed hair styles for men in North Korea.

What is known about North Korea is that all citizens have a megaphone in their apartment and they must have it tuned and on all the time and from it come daily broadcasts. There is one radio station, one t.v. station.

Periodically the government shuts down the electricity and sends police door to door and they enter apartments checking dvd apperatus during these outages to see if its citizens are watching videos from China or yegads elsewhere.

If you fly into the country you must sign a declaration you bring NOTHING. No publications, no radio, no dvd's nothing but yourself and clothes.

All movement is controlled. You can not travel or see anything unless its pre-screened.

The buildings appear delapidated and falling apart except for the ones allowed to be shown on film.

The entire premises of society is based around the belief that the socialist ideology of the first leader prevails and that Juche ideology is the same kind of Stalinism Joseph Stalin pushed or that was prevalent in Romania or Albania-the worshipping of a family line to carry on that leadership of it.

The state's only real industry is the military. If you are not in the military directly you are indirectly through a state run agency. There is no private ownership and citizens do not walk around with money. Even when they do, its been devalued so many times its not worth much.

Satellite has picekd up numerous open air prisons and reports that have come out indicate how thousands of citizens at a time can be moved out of villages to camps where they are starved to death.

All food and material goods go to the military first.

There are reports of wide spread famine that drove North Koreans into China in desperate search of food.

The lack of food has created reports of wide spread physical disease and most importantly the stunting of brain intelligence as Koreans that do manage to live to adulthood have neurological issues from lack of nutrition during crucial years of infant development.

Much of the rhetoric we here today is an attempt to get the US to talk to North Korea directly. The US refuses. The insult this is perceived as within North Korea is one of the ultimate of insults.

Do not under-estimate much of the histrionics you see in the last few weeks is a tantrum at being ignored and a deliberate attempt to come across as a legitimate nuclear nation equal to the US demanding its respect and one on one talks.

The US does not appear to be abandoning its policy to only negotiate with North Korea if Japan, China and South Korea are present and that is realistic and you can be sure the Philippines, Indonesia, Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan and the Russians are also in the background as all share concerns as to that region's instability.

Interestingly Russia quite deliberately gave a stinging criticism to North Korea just yesterday. This is a direct payback thank you to the US for agreeing to scale down missile deployment in Europe. The US's current regime views Putin as a potential ally not enemy as did the Republicans and in this instance the Russians who once of course were the sponsor of North Korea surprised many blasting them yesterday.

Also interestingly China has distanced itself from the usual knee jerk support of the past suggesting their allies within North Korea have been shunted to the side by a new faction manipulating the current little fat boy and all point to the fat boy's Uncle as the man behind it all.

No one knows what can happen but a nucelar war is doubtful. North Korea has no ability to place a nuclear war head on a missile. The missiles it has shot have "malfunctioned" suggesting the US or Japan or even China jammed them. It is unrealistic to think at least those three countries do not have the ability to jam up and cause their missiles to malfunction.

The one worrisome development is that with all this rhetoric the repressed patriotism of Japan could bubble up again. The tensions between both Koreas, the Philippines, China and Russia over Japan in World War Two are never far from the surface and the Taiwan-China conflict is always a reality and all those can mutate into regional conflicts no one suspects when they have all eyes on North Korea.

I doubt anything is going to happen. I would guess this is all hot air but it does seem some times hot air can back you into a corner and with North Korea they are so concerned about saving face in the eyes of the world sure its possible they back themselves into a corner.

However given the size of its army having a conventional ground war is unlikely. We are more likely to see a naval incident or air incident.

If North Korea did invade South Korea, their manpower of soldiers could swarm over the border, but they have no logistics to sustain water, food and othe vital supplies so they w ould have to pillage existing South Korean resources and that means they could not stay on the ground because South Korea would have the ability with just its own forces let alone US forces to use airwar to kill thousands on the ground.

Interestingly the capital of South Korea is so close to North Korea this notion they would swarm the South to occupy it is a preoccupation of some.

The South Korean friends I have had stay with me take the North seriously but they consider it more like a mentally ill relative and they have learned to live with the sporadic rhetoric.

There is a faction of South Koreans highly anti communist but these are the direct generation who fought in the Korean war. Today's south Koreans, are stressed out and highly preocuped trying to make a living in a very intense and competitive world.

South Korean children are much more advanced than North American children with math, sciences and learning second and third languages.

My family hosted a 9 year old boy so he could learn English. South Koreans you ask them, they come from a society where its competitive as hell so the fat boy next door is not their no.1 concern but I agree that country has to be taken seriously.

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What? I thought Bush looked deep into Putin's eyes and liked what he saw.

James Buchanan ordered Robert E Lee to wipe out John Brown and his Abolitionists. Strange bedfellows, all.

Edited by DogOnPorch
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Or perverted bedfellows. Recall all that talk of Bush and Blair's bromance back in the day? Maybe Putin was just hitting on Bush too.

Nah...he's too busy guiding flocks of cranes around Russia.

putin7294-620x349.jpg

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Does anyone know what is happening on the 10th? Can't seem to find the exact info anywhere other than "great explosion" etc..

Sorta curious as I'm due to head back up north on the 16th, and I don't want to get delayed due to WWIII and nuclear Armageddon. Any info is appreciated.

What exactly will be the result here of an escalation war in Korea, or nuclear explosions? Will it effect ground transport. I figure fallout would reach Canada and the US in 2-3 days, just wondering if the Canadian government will alter transit like VIA in the result of Nuclear war in Asia?

Edited by shortlived
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At first glance the link I provided seems funny

But there is actually some deeper thought involved when you consider the harmful effects of sanctions in polarizing a population.

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=606667476029140&set=a.429500093745880.113221.429456927083530&type=1&ref=nf

WWWTT

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Anyone else thinking it will be a nuclear test instead of a missile launch?

I figure that North Korea will be forced to go ballistic on South Korea and/or Japan and the Aegis ships if it opts to launch - unless it is a "direct UP launch" into space..... ex. another satalite launch or to take out the NEO satalites however china might be pissed at that, so too russia.

The only way they can't loose face without starting the modern Korean War (which may last only a week) is to perform another nuclear test. However strategically they will be at a loss because of now massive missile defences deployed, where they didn't exist before. They may also have been alienated somewhat by china, and have returned to Juche.

My rating was 0.5% last week for events, it was upgraded to 3% a couple days ago. I think I'm sitting a about 27-28% that tomorrow, the 10th could see either a nuclear test which isn't that big of a deal us conducted like 900 of them. Or cataclysmic warfare for the peninsula and potentially surrounding countries which would devastate the US economic base as they are major us reserve currency holders, and major us trade partners.

EIther they are returning to Juche to mark the 100 years of the Kim's or its going to go off...... NK has been massively massively pinned in over the last week there really is no going back.

None the less I think people are flat out in denile that after 60 years very destructive war could resume, .... I think this is the closest it has come in the last 20-30 years.

It has lost support to a certain extent.. and China is coming under increasing pressure to actually enforce sanctions, without China NK will be very very neutered. It will probably not be able to support its defence which is already quite thin supply wise.

It is an end of an era, either they act, or they may have a hard time coming out of the sanctions.

Of course this is 24 hours off so anything can happen, the ball is in NK's court, US is only defcon 4 so perhaps they don't expect anything.

I think it is possible I would be at defcon 3 right now. I would definately consider going to defcon 2 on the 10th.

In reality though I think there is about a 60% chance of a nuclear test tomorrow.


Either they do the thing, or they are in for a rough ride since they are on the US hitlist their chance of being invaded will only increase as time goes on, especially without chinese veto.

Nuclear test seems most likely, I think any war at this point is WAR... they can save face with a nuclear test. A launch is a gambit. A "surprise" attack may do all but when it gets down to it, ... lots of factors.

It is 8pm they are 13 hours ahead of us... that means that midnight on the 9th to 10th is only 4 hours away.

This as now their tourism industry is being called off for safety reasons...

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2013/04/09/north-korea-warning-evacuation-tensions.html

Psychologically I think it going off is maybe at 47% now. in reality 42%

sanctions will bite hard, consider North Korea is already dependent on foreign aid which is being hard loved away. while they have also started to effectively shut down two of their domestic economic means of foreign currency first the complex now tourism is being shied away. Kim Jong Un's standing is also being put into the equation. The west won't cave, and one might expect it to get very ugly in North Korea without foreign aid, and sanctions, although China is still not fully complying with the UN sanctions.

I was all $200 nothing will happen, now I am 50 cents to a dollar something will happen. but still think that a nuclear test is most likely.... if it is anything else it will go off.

North Korea issued its latest dispatch of ominous rhetoric Tuesday, telling foreigners in South Korea they should take steps to secure shelter or evacuation to protect themselves in the event of a conflict on the Korean Peninsula.

We could be 3 hours and 45 minutes away from the biggest single exchange in the history of mankind since the battle of the bulge.

Note the bible does say this is suppose to happen clearly outlined in the code of revelations, but I think that it is hard to believe it will.

Almost time for bed.

People do not want to believe it will happen.

Anyone want to take my friendly bet $1 it happens 1 for 1.

I'll only take a few bets at this rate.

I should have the odds here like 1:10. or 1:100 cause you all think that North Korea isn't going to start it up...

I'm still not convinved but this is since the end of the cold war like the #1 big chance, and quite the diversion since this is North Korea opting for war.. not playing on NATOs/USs schedule.

There have been more lopsided battles such as the American War of Independence.

None the less if anything happens it will be a game changer for Korea.

Although North Korea tends to agree with my assessment

"Once a war is ignited on the peninsula, it will be an all-out war," the committee said, adding that North Korea doesn't want foreigners in South Korea to "fall victim" to a conflict.

The trigger is what remains unknown....

All biblical signs point to spring... hilarious to get into bible prophesy...

as it always ends up people wake up, things don't happen and you wait for the next event.

None the less it does line up with prophesy.

Kim Jong Un is a gamer...............................51%

I was right about Fukashima, this is very convincing, and is what I predicted just before Fukashima..........

of course no one will believe unless it happens. right.

Edited by shortlived
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Short Lived, for what it is worth I am with your belief North Korea will set off a missile in the next day or so in time for the birthday celebrations.

I am of the belief other missile firings that failed in mid air may very well have been the result of US, Japanese, or combined US Japanese jamming expertise. You and I will never know. However I speculate the US, Israel, Japan, China, to name 4 all probably have technology capable of jamming missiles and blowing them up in mid flight. You would think so if for no other reason, their own security interests and technological expertise and in the case of China their ability to copy it from others.

Now will it set off a war. Not a nuclear war. I do think a war arising from an altercation off the South Korean coasts is hair trigger but would that cause a nuclear war? I just do not think North Korea has nuclear weapons. I do not doubt it has a large manpower army but that army has no logistics. Its all show. It has no food or water to enable a successful campaign. They could swarm the borders and occupy a swath of land but eventually they would be bombed out with carpet bombing from new low level bombs that take out soldiers in open spaces.

Would North Korea occupy a city? Probably not. They are paranoid at the influence of Western luxury standards. If their soldiers got a look at or a taste of that lifestyle the whole thing would be a mess for them.

Behind al that zeal is a thin thin line. Behind all that hype which we can not see are hungry soldiers let alone starving peasants. Albania is the closest example to North Korea. It managed for years to keep the world locked out but eventually people penetrated their borders and poof the illusion was gone.

North Korea strugggles to keep Chinese television and radio out let alone Western broadcasts but they are getting in, slowly. There is a trickle effect happening. We can't see it because its all shut off from the West but slowly deep within North Korea peasants who got out to China and South Korea are sending messages back.

I do think this nut job is a puppet. I think this little fat boy is just a puppet for some faceless generals all struggling for power.

Eventually the fat boy and his Uncle who is really the one behind all the muscle flexing to focus people away from the internal power struggles are

goingt o have to deal with the West.

The muscle flexing has failed. You can only starve people so long and then there is an internal collapse no matter how strong that central organ of government may be. Ask Russia, Egypt. Lack of food brings even the most powerful of governments down. China should take note. Its next.,

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North Korea is a non starter. Sure they are a wild card, but they are not suicidal.

The reports of them sending a couple missiles to the east coast is nothing of a concern. NK has announced that they are doing more testing. If they wanted to start a real attack and invasion of SK, then they'd be moving a lot more hardware around, and that does not seem to be the case.

This is an excuse for the US military to flex their naval might. This will blow over in my opinion. I could be wrong.

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This is an excuse for the US military to flex their naval might. This will blow over in my opinion. I could be wrong.

Damn Americans, always starting sh!t. Better let the ROK know that the North Koreans are just kidding.

Edited by DogOnPorch
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They said they would BC er at least delay the test for the reasons you said. Problem is with NK any kind of appeasement just wratches up their rhetoric as well. Yer damned if you do, damned if you don't. No matter what you do they react. Its like dealing with a spoiled child having a tantrum, last thing you can do is fret too much if they scream louder.

Now let's ask-does anyone think you can really deal with the NK regime in a rational manner? Its a throw back to a Stalinesque regime where a faceless military junta runs every aspect of society. Its all based on fear. True Stalinism is based on fear. The way people are "inspired" is through fear. Everyone from top to bottom is watched. Anyone, even the most loyal of generals can disappear. Who decides who is most loyal? This is the insanity. No one knows for sure who is the no.1 leader at any time. You have several alpha male sociopaths at any given time fighting to be no.1, each with their own network of followers and each playing passive aggressive games with each other. The general standing next to you smiling could kill you.

This little fat boy is a puppet. His uncle and the other generals vying for power we do not know what their agenda is and who they are. We can guess their rhetoric is a desperate attempt to get concessions from the US and UN but it definitely is not working.

The latest shut down of the last source of financial income coming into the country, a joint project with South Korea is now closed by them. So what industry and trade do they have? Take a look for yourself. They have none. This is not a country with oil or natural resource resevoirs being exported.

Its sole reason for existing is China wanted a buffer zone from South Korea to keep direct contamination of South Korea's economy from influencing Chinese citizens into demanding more wealth.

Other than that what is North Korea? It has no ability to feed its people. Their is no farming. There has been wide spread famine. There is no ability to maintain farms and distribute food. For years food has come from the West and ironically the principal supplier of food has always been the US.

What do its people do for a living? . Other than propping the military what do people actually do? If you look for yourself you will see the sole source of income North Korea has is sending weapons systems to Iran these days. It manufactures missiles, explosives, and relatively unsophisticated weapons technology that it procured second hand from China or was able to infiltrate South Korea and steal.

That is about it. Even the missiles ii supplied Iran, Syria, Hezbollah are questionable. Don't get me wrong I wouldn't want one aimed at me but a lot are reported to be duds. None-the-less Hezbollah, Syria and Iran's missile aresenals seems to be heavily North Korean.

The reports that filter out report wide spread physical and mental illness from lack of proper nutrition and shelter.

I think if one were to do a psychological analysis of the NK armed forces in detail they would find the majority of soldiers l have no food to sustain a long war. . I do not doubt North Korea has elite forces of dedicated communist types but I would suggest the majority of its army are uneducated, hungry and would not operate well or look as feasome as those we see on the propaganda films.

An army to be able to fight has to eat and not feel guilty about eating while its own people starve.

One of the huge psychological weaknesses ofNK is the same problem Hamas has in Gaza, They can both for example mount apublic relations campaigns to make it look likethey are people's freedom fighting brigades, but to their own citizens they are simply a brutal force of fear used to keep its own citizens imbolized and paralyzed.

Hamas like the NK military rules its own people by brutal force. Hamas or NK or Hezbollah or Iran's elite units, rule by fear. They can't really sustain a war outside their own borders because they can't turn their back on their own people. Its hard to use the same force to fight others when you also need it to keep your own people down.

This is why for so many years Arab nations could not win a war with Israel. Those same armies being used as political agents of fear in their own country could not leave for too long to fight Israel. The attacks on Israel were intended to focus attention away from their brutality against their own people and for many years this worked. To keep your people from revolting you just yelled out the word Israel. Now that exercise no longer works and thus civil wars across the Arab world.

This is why terrorism came about. In a world wear conventional armies are used as a political agency of terror kind of you kist can't sustain a conventional external war with them at the same time. At best you can send sporadic attacks with children, young men, but you can't send an army. It would require support of your own people.

The NK armed forces are no different than Hamas in Gaza or Hezbollah in Lebanon. The NK armed forces make no mistake are a terror cell. Its a large one and it has uniforms and it chants and marches but its essentially a cult group, a cult terrorist group that keeps millions controlled by fear and its preoccupation is shutting the world out.

In many ways NK is like a baby that comes out of a Romanian orphanage. It failed to thrive at a crucial stage of its collective psychological development and now has permanent collective psychological damage manifested by a complete inability to deal with anyone.

The US is not its real enemy. The US is to NK what Israel is to Middle East Arab nations.

The US is just a convenient pin cushion to focus away from its own internal dsyfunction.

The real enemy of NK is its own people starving to death.

Edited by Rue
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I noticed a factual error in this NY times article

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/11/world/asia/north-korea-missile.html?_r=0

it says south korea had no way to pay the north korean workers from kaesong, but the north korean government is paid not the workers.

this misinformation in the new york times seems odd.\

It seems the companies are withholding payment from north korea.

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Somebody on here must know how long after those rockets were fueled will they have to be drained and serviced? The answers I find vary, but anywhere from as little as 24 to as many as 72 hours is enough time for the fuel to corrode the tanks rendering them unsafe to say the least. Given that there are reports that a medium ranged rocket is vertical and ready to launch we can expect one of two outcomes. It gets taken down and serviced or it gets launched. Soon....

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Guest Derek L

Somebody on here must know how long after those rockets were fueled will they have to be drained and serviced? The answers I find vary, but anywhere from as little as 24 to as many as 72 hours is enough time for the fuel to corrode the tanks rendering them unsafe to say the least. Given that there are reports that a medium ranged rocket is vertical and ready to launch we can expect one of two outcomes. It gets taken down and serviced or it gets launched. Soon....

Months……..Though liquid fuelled, the fuel mixture has added inhibitors to help stabilize the propellant, fore the original design of the rocket was actually intended to be used aboard Soviet missile subs in the early 70s, as such, the crews of the subs wouldn’t be able to fuel and unfuel then service the missiles well underway.

Edited by Derek L
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Somebody on here must know how long after those rockets were fueled will they have to be drained and serviced? The answers I find vary, but anywhere from as little as 24 to as many as 72 hours is enough time for the fuel to corrode the tanks rendering them unsafe to say the least. Given that there are reports that a medium ranged rocket is vertical and ready to launch we can expect one of two outcomes. It gets taken down and serviced or it gets launched. Soon....

Many rocket fuels are stable and not corrosive. I do not know which particular fuel North Korean rockets us, but it is quite likely that it is a non-corrosive one. Given the many technical challenges NK faces in developing its missile and nuclear programs, it is unlikely they would have selected a difficult to store, unstable fuel and made the problem any more complex than it had to be.

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  • 8 months later...
Guest Derek L

And in Communist North Korea, dogs eat you for dinner:

http://www.straitstimes.com/the-big-story/asia-report/china/story/jangs-execution-bodes-ill-china-20131224

THE execution of Jang Song Thaek, the No. 2 man in North Korea, took Beijing by surprise and will adversely affect bilateral relations.

Beijing's displeasure is expressed through the publication of a detailed account of Jang's brutal execution in Wen Wei Po, its official mouthpiece, in Hong Kong, on Dec 12.

According to the report, unlike previous executions of political prisoners which were carried out by firing squads with machine guns, Jang was stripped naked and thrown into a cage, along with his five closest aides. Then 120 hounds, starved for three days, were allowed to prey on them until they were completely eaten up. This is called "quan jue", or execution by dogs.

The report said the entire process lasted for an hour, with Mr Kim Jong Un, the supreme leader in North Korea, supervising it along with 300 senior officials.

And we let this guy get nuclear weapons :rolleyes:

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An article on the NK 'dogs' story is more than a little interesting:

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2014/01/07/commentary/chinas-anti-kim-campaign/#.UsxCLGRDta8

It's never been verified, and seems to be disinformation from China of all places. You can rest assured, however, that you will hear somebody quote this story at some point in the near future proving that lying works...

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Dogs are regularly used as instruments of terror in North Korean concentration camps. That this story is probably embellished doesn't take away from the fact that Little Napoleon is a psychopathic murderous monster. Ask his former girl friends...oh wait...

http://www.smh.com.au/world/kim-jongun-north-korean-leader-reportedly-has-exgirlfriend-11-others-executed-20130830-2suqx.html

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