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August1991

Will Ukraine Be Partitioned?

Ukraine Partition  

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Canadian sanctions on Russia appear to be working. China has come out in support of Russia on the Ukraine issue and has just landed a $3 billion contract with Russia for building and purchasing of S-400 air defence systems.

Our sanctions are really working well to force the Russians into the European Union and under the influence of the West. :rolleyes:

It will be interesting to see how long France will take before it changes its mind and delivers those Mistral Class helicopter ships to Russia. It has been rumoured that Canada may be interested in them but my money is on Russia to complete that $2 billion deal soon.

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The sanctions on Russia by the West are really putting the screws to those agagressors . Kiev has given up on Crimea and the Eastern oblasts are firmly in rebel (pro Russian) hands. Kiev is running out of money for the military and for food. Meanwhile, Russia just signed another trade deal with Turkey - the supposed key to the eradication of ISIL. They have announced to increase the trade between the two countries from the current $33 billion a year to $100 billion in a few years.

Maybe if Canada increased our sanctions of exports to Russia to include igloos and salted octopus maybe we can force them right to their knees and force them into helping us in our war against ISIL.

Maybe not.

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Radiation in drinking water in Ukraine.

What's going on in Ukraine now, I wonder? I work in Canada at present while my aged parents are in one of the small villages in Ukraine at an hour drive from Zaporizhie. I know about some malfunction on the local NPP there but the prime-minister Yatsenyk said there was nothing to worry about.
Still I'm worried! I'm really in panic for I talked with them over the Skype and they told me that the local authorities closed all the personal wells in their village and put even some metal bars on them. Drinking water is broad there in huge canisters. They were explained due to some chemical leakages into underground water. But they have no chemical enterprises nearby. I really fear there may be radiation leakages actually on Zapoirizhie NPP!

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No wonder those wily Ukrainian ministers have been trading in America supplied weapons for D.C. foe in Syria Assad!! I know Ukrainians. They are all beasts! Money, money, money always sunny.....

[edited to remove link]

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I'm really in panic!!

Why don't politicians in Canada explain anything of the huge radioactive leak on the largest NPP in Europe in Zaporizhye?
Why are all those pols staying with their lips sealed?

They say level of radiation around the NPP is 16 times higher now than the permitted norm!! Is this really so? Can anybody clear it up for me at last? I've got my relatives living in Ukraine!

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I too have tried to get more information. It appears that the NPP is located on the edge of the front in the fighting and very little information is coming from there. I would hope that both sides realize that the stability of that plant is beneficial for both sides.

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I too have tried to get more information. It appears that the NPP is located on the edge of the front in the fighting and very little information is coming from there. I would hope that both sides realize that the stability of that plant is beneficial for both sides.

Really?!

Since you are unable to get any real information about situation in Ukraine, I inform you:

Russia Today was caught spreading forged "documents" again. They altered routine reports of the Ukrainian Emergency Situation Agency. There was no any concern of radioactivity level at that or any other Ukrainian NPP. By the way, as always you demonstrate complete ignorance of Ukrainian geography. The plant is pretty far from the front line.

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Thank you for, your response. I could not find any reference to validate your statement about the Russians forging Ukrainian Emergency Situation so I assume it did not happen unless you can provide a source. Thank you for encouraging me to continue to study Ukrainian geography. I suggest that (pretty far) from a front line that is constantly changing (moving closer to Kiev) is a relative term.

I will take your advice in the spirit in which it is given.

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I suggest that (pretty far) from a front line that is constantly changing (moving closer to Kiev)...

WTF? Have you heard about the Minsk agreement? The Ukrainian army is in the Donetsk airport.

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It appears that we will soon be seeing regional autonomy in Eastern Ukraine. Kiev is slowly losing the fighting war and cannot afford more fighting. I believe that Kiev now understands that they will never win a military battle so a political compromise will have to be made.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2014/09/02/is-russia-winning-ukraine-war/

About 90% of South Eastern Ukraine had voted for the deposed pro-Russian government that was overthrown by Kiev. The EU with its 30% dependence on Russian gas and winter in full force is sitting on the sidelines.

I believe that Russia will keep Crimea and that a zone with regional autonomy will be created in Eastern Ukraine as a buffer between Kiev and Russia. Russia has won this one.

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The battles continue and the rebels appear to still be gaining ground. They have taken Donetsk airport, the winter is cold and Kiev still depends on Russia for gas and Ukraine is running out of resources.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/15/russian-backed-separatists-seize-donetsk-airport-ukraine

It looks to me like Kiev cannot win a military solution. A political solution will require an independent Eastern buffer between Kiev and Russia - the sooner the better. Too many have already diedin this confrontation.

Edited by Big Guy

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For the second time I ask you whether you heard about Minsk agreement?

Have you ever looked at the map? Do you know where Russia is, where Ukraine is and where fighting is? Judging from your mantra about the buffer, you have no idea about either.

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Thank you for taking an interest in my views and projections on the region. It might be more productive if you spent more time explaining your views rather than questioning my knowledge of geography and demographics. I will continue to be civil with you but my patience is running thin. You obviously disagree with anything that I have stated even the early parts of this thread that have followed as I predicted.

I submit two maps which I submit are approximately accurate at this point in time. What information do you disagree with and why?

http://mapofeurope.com/political-map-of-the-ukraine-war-and-mh17-crash-site/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsk_Protocol#mediaviewer/File:Minsk_Protocol.svg

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The first map is irrelevant.

On the second map, only small portions of both Ukraine and Russia are shown.

If you look at a normal map, you should realize that your idea about a buffer zone is far from possibility.

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ASIP - I have looked at your posts again. You express what you would like to happen Good for you. I try to objectively gather what information I have available and post what I believe is happening and what will probably happen. I am not a cheerleader for Putin or Kiev. I have no personal dog in this fight. If you have factual information that discounts what I post then please feel free to do so. I would appreciate your corrections.

You seem to favor the Kiev position in this conflict. You have every right to cheer for your side but I am not prepared nor have any intention of taking an opposite side to create some mud slinging.

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Some of the latest is that Donetsk's airport is now under rebel control again. It's been a key contested point in this war. I don't see it ending anytime soon.

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Kiev has officially withdrawn form the airport and the rebels seem to be gaining ground. The ceasefire that is not a ceasefire has resulted in the deaths of 13 folks riding peacefully in a trolley - more "collateral damage".

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2015/01/deadly-shelling-strikes-bus-ukraine-donetsk-150122083838601.html

It is heartbreaking reading about former neighbors killing each other. It is difficult to generate the hate required to kill, during a civil war - but Kiev and the rebels are doing their best. Meanwhile, more infrastructure is being destroyed - infrastructure which will have to be rebuilt. I see no real winners in this one.

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I don't know.

But for sure Ukraine needs much stronger leader. This Poroshenko controls nothing. He's just goes with the stream of the country blown off into the Hell of war and economic crisis and mass disaffection. The same Yatsenyuk proves more competence.

There is even a letter from the chairman of the Bundestag's Committee on Foreign Affairs to Mrs.Nuland where he writes about planning to replace Poroshenko with Yatsenyuk. And he is right.

MoyS84n.jpg

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I do see a small parallel between what is happening in Ukraine and in Iraq. In the Ukraine, it is being presented to us as an invasion by Russia of Ukraine. The areas now under rebel control are those people who voted for the previous elected president who was tossed out by Kiev. Almost all the people in this area are Russian speaking and most support the rebels. These rebels could not hold that ground without the support of the local populace.

In Iraq, ISIS is being portrayed as an invader from ...? Those in the know see that ISIS is a bunch of Iraqi Sunni radicals who are now in control of Sunni territory and the locals are supporting them. The ISIS folks could not hold that ground without the support of the local populace.

And our foreign policy is to assist the factions that are not supported by the local populace.

We are being played like a fine fiddle.

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Looks like Ukraine will certainly be partitioned. EU is on record as not sending any arms to Kiev for the battles and only Republican Senators in America want to fight a surrogate war in Ukraine. The rebels are winning and are in control of the Russian speaking and pro-Russian areas of Ukraine.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/07/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSKBN0LB0IA20150207

The only question is what this new area will be called and just how autonomous it will be. It appears to me that the majority of people in that area are Russian speaking and support the rebels. They voted overwhelmingly for the president that Kiev threw out and have no wish to be part of Ukraine.

What do those in the USA think would happen if the Americans were to supply Kiev with more weapons?

Edited by Big Guy

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It is getting more difficult to figure out who are the good guys and the bad guys in this war.

No, it's not the least bit difficult. In fact it's astoundingly easy. On the one side you have the democratic government of Ukraine and the Ukrainian people. On the other side you have the Russian army and a brutal, murderous autocratic dictator.

Things don't get any more black and white than that to those with any sort of moral framework.

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Kiev has officially withdrawn form the airport and the rebels Russian army seem to be gaining ground.

Fixed that for ya.

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No, it's not the least bit difficult. In fact it's astoundingly easy. On the one side you have the democratic government of Ukraine and the Ukrainian people. On the other side you have the Russian army and a brutal, murderous autocratic dictator.

Things don't get any more black and white than that to those with any sort of moral framework.

They are black and white to you because thats all your brain has the capacity for. Theres a lot more to it than that.

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Fixed that for ya.

Another silly oversimplification. If Russia wanted to take Ukraine by military force they could take the whole country in three days. The reality is they are doing the same kind of thing western countries do sometimes... pick a side in some fight and provide that side with material aid, weapons, and a handful of people with specialized skills.

In this case, Russia is siding with Ukraines Russians. Not exactly a big surprise.

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