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August1991

Will there be a coup d'état in Russia?

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Putin is not a messiah. Enough Solidarity with your hero worship and naïve believe one man saved Russia.Its just a rehash of the oldest fable in the world.

Putin is no more Russia's saviour than Lenin, Stalin, Kruschev, Breshnev nor is he their saviour of economic ruin anymore that Hitler was Germany's messiah.

Your narrative is stale and old. Instead of Hitler or Stalin its now Putin. Why not stand and chant his name and salute to him. Hail Putin.

You sound like some foolish brainwashed boy at a Hitler youth camp.

Enough.

No one man does a phacking thing in Russia without the approval of its crime syndicates.

Your saviour is nothing more than a hired thug for the mob.

This brilliant economic recovery in Russia you talk about, you need to get a grip. Russia faces food shortages.

Russia is bankrupt. It can not afford the military expeditures he's forced on the country. He just sold away all his oil reserves to China at below market prices.

Look hard solidarity because Russia can not feed its people. It can enter all the skirmishes it wants to get its people focused away from its economic 's failures but the fact is Putin has no economic training. His a pathetic KGB thug. He's a two bit corrupt cop.

Go look at the economic performance of Russia and the disaster its economy is in before you hero worship this man.

Yet another post of yours from fantasy land filled with your baseless assumptions and statements. And I'm some sort of hitler youth for making logical factual statements? Get bent! I'm done responding with you on issues regarding Ukraine/Russia you are way to emotional about these issues to take seriously.

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Yeah and when I was in Iraq leading up to the US invasion Sadam had a 100% approval rating.

And he also got 100% of the vote. lol

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...

Get bent! I'm done responding with you on issues regarding Ukraine/Russia you are way to emotional about these issues to take seriously.

I understand and share your frustration at some of the posters here. Intelligent discussion requires the ability to differentiate between propaganda, political spin and reality. Some are unable to be objective enough to give other viewpoints an honest reading. Throw in a passionate hate or love for any particular group and any sense of legitimate discourse disappears.

I try to restrict my time on the computer to three hrs a day for research and news gathering. This forces me to be very selective of what issue and who to take seriously to engage in the exchanging of ideas and opinions. I believe that I have now learned who are worth engaging and who are not.

I do read and enjoy your approach which I find rational, researched and well organized. Please do not give in to the trolls, teasers and self proclaimed “experts”. Just be more selective and share your point of view with those who will engage you in civilized and intelligent discussion.

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..

I think the people do as they are told, they believe what they are told, they have enough to think about in their own lives....

And how does that make them different from Americans and Canadians?

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Yet another post of yours from fantasy land filled with your baseless assumptions and statements. And I'm some sort of hitler youth for making logical factual statements? Get bent! I'm done responding with you on issues regarding Ukraine/Russia you are way to emotional about these issues to take seriously.

You came on this forum heroworshipping Putin and making unsubstantiated statements he resurrected Russia's economy.

I made no such claims. In fact I simply stated your comments for what they are fantasy and without basis-the words of lHitler Youth or stalin youth party member cheering on his saviour.

Your statements about student are no different than what Hitler youth chanted about their Fuhrer or Stalin youth chanted about Papa Joe. That is fact. Go read the tracts. You repeat them. The only thing that has changed is the leader you are saluting.

You made sweeping unsubstantiated statements that Puton has revived Russia's economy and I again call you out on it and say its bull.

The only fantasy is you pretending Putin has saved Russia's economy.

Here unlike you I back up what I stated:

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2013/11/russias-economy

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-04-25/even-without-sanctions-russias-economy-is-looking-sicklier-than-ever

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2013/01/24/russias-three-biggest-problems/

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Some are unable to be objective enough to give other viewpoints an honest reading.

I believe that I have now learned who are worth engaging and who are not.

Just be more selective and share your point of view with those who will engage you in civilized and intelligent discussion.

There it is. Big Guy has delivered his proclomation on who is and who is not deemed a loyal subject.

From now on His Royal Highness Big Guy will only respond to those loyal subjects that abide by his commands.

Right. You and Solidarity form a kingdom then and decide who will be in your circle of loyal subjects.

Lol.

All hail. Zieg Heil Big Guy. Those who disobey will be what?

Oh wait I know, I am ex-communicated. Golly gee then.

Edited by Rue

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I wouldn't read a lot into the Russian polls vis a vis Canadian polls. People here are allowed to freely express an opinion. Although it's perhaps time to launch that coup next election time if we wish to keep that ability.

Also before the Ukraine crisis Putin's support was quite low I think about 45%, but for any pseudo dictator that's pretty low.

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There can be no doubt Putin has used foreign policy and foreign conflict to boost his ratings and focus away from his economic failures.

If one examines the last 15-year history of Putin's popularity ratings including when he was Prime Minister, there are two main periods:

1-a period of growth (from 1999 to 2008, with a break in 2004);

2-a period of waning popularity.

Not suprisingly the period of decline coincided with the economic crisis in Russia in 2008-2011 and then the period of stagnation in 2014.

Each time Russia's economic problems including inflation, utility tariffs, unemployment, have reared their ugly head to make Putin unpopular he has fermented an external crisis.

Netween 2008 and 2011, Putin lost about a third of his supporters and his rating was at its lowest in December 2011, when thousands of participants and protests against election fraud broke out.

Right before the invasion of Crimea, Putin was not popular because of economic failures. Once he invaded, his popularity soared.

The source for all the abiove can be found at: Russia Beyond the Headlines - http://rbth.com/opinion/2014/06/09/what_is_the_link_between_economics_and_putins_popularity_37321.html)

I have pretty much repeated the article verbatum.

What I would opine is that this technique of fermenting an external crisis to focus away from internal economic failures is nothing new. Hitler did it. Mussolini did it in Ethiopia. Some argue the US did it in Vietnam and the Gulf War for the same reasons.

What I would argue is that Putin's popularity has gone up and down and always rises when he engages in displays of chauvenism.

Here is what is dangerous. Since it has worked so many times for him, he will do it again and herein lies the problem.

Russia's economy is a disaster. It is not self sustainable. Its entirely dependent now on devalued market price structure that has commited its oil revenues for years to come with China.

Its allowed China to buy out its oil in return for its temporary fix and getting revenue from that to mount its episode in the Ukraine. Putin can talk all he wants but his military behaviour comes at the expense of food and the rights of the average person.

His people must pay for his displays of bravado and when they line up for food this winter expect proble.s How many external wars can he create to focus away from the lack of food?

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There can be no doubt Putin has used foreign policy and foreign conflict to boost his ratings and focus away from his ratings...

So what?

Rue, as others above, you seem to misunderstand my OP.

The attempted/failed coup in August 1991 against Gorbachev originated in a small, influential group of people in the Kremlin, near the politburo who were unhappy with the direction Gorbachev was leading the Soviet Union. (Later, Yeltsin humiliated Gorbachev by forcing him to read out the names of men Gorbachev had appointed.)

I am speculating that a coup against Putin will occur in the same way for a similar reason. Putin is taking Russia in a direction a small inner circle disagrees with. It has nothing to do with Putin's "popularity".

Edited by August1991

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There it is. Big Guy has delivered his proclomation on who is and who is not deemed a loyal subject.

From now on His Royal Highness Big Guy will only respond to those loyal subjects that abide by his commands.

Right. You and Solidarity form a kingdom then and decide who will be in your circle of loyal subjects.

Lol.

All hail. Zieg Heil Big Guy. Those who disobey will be what?

Oh wait I know, I am ex-communicated. Golly gee then.

And you wonder why civil posters do not want to engage in a dialogue with you? Your own words prove my point.

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August I'm not sure where you got the idea that a few dead ukrainians would chage their mind set....in fact what did the people say about the thousands of Russian soldiers lost in chechen, or afghanistan and they where they own......what did they say about the thousands of chechenians that died , or go back a few years into Russian history, when they starved to death millions of ukrainians....

I think the people do as they are told, they believe what they are told, they have enough to think about in their own lives....

I argued above about (possible, unlikely) internal change to Putin.

I suspect now that Putin is merely a psychopath and he'll back off if the West/Obama/EU imposes serious sanctions. (OTOH, if Putin is a bipolar/megalomaniac, then I think that there will be a coup to depose him.)

====

Here's the popular change, and it was an advertisement in an election in the 1990s under Yeltsin: The Communist Party killed 50 million people. But that's not the issue here.

Edited by August1991

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Under normal circumstances I'd say yes, absolutely. However, given that the media is basically controlled by Russia and Putin's men, I doubt many citizens have any idea of what really is going on!

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There can be no doubt Putin has used foreign policy and foreign conflict to boost his ratings and focus away from his economic failures.

Kind of mirrors Obama's current strategy.

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Putin’s Popularity Soars to 87% in the Face of Adversity

http://time.com/3088126/putins-popularity-hits-87-russia/

Do polls in a not-free country prove anything? Isn't it sort of like 100% elections in Communist and Muslim countries?

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I've never heard anyone claim that the Levada Centre (which did the polling in the linked article) is anything but fully independent. Have you heard otherwise?

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I've never heard anyone claim that the Levada Centre (which did the polling in the linked article) is anything but fully independent. Have you heard otherwise?

Serious analysts in Russia do not believe those large numbers from polls despite the fact that the Levada Centre is independent and has good reputation. In totalitarian states people do not say that they think.

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Serious analysts in Russia do not believe those large numbers from polls despite the fact that the Levada Centre is independent and has good reputation. In totalitarian states people do not say that they think.

They also don't really undersand what's going on given the government control of the media. There was an interesting article in the New York Times which was reprinted by the Globe today. It's kind of a microcism of Russia under Putin. It details how the Russian government set up the giveaway of a state company which printed textbooks. It wound up with a friend of Putin's at a fraction of its cost. Then the state began banning other textbooks to allow this newly independant company to flourish by substituting their Soviet era textbooks for those used by competitors. Yes, it's blatant corruption, but it also increases state control over yet another industry, and allows the state to ensure that young minds are not taught to think, but to worship Putin and government authority.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/putins-friend-profits-from-russias-schoolbook-purge/article21418981/

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Even if there was a coup in Russia and Russians adopted our system of governance the result would be that most wealth and power would still eventually end up in fewer and fewer hands and whether you subscribe to capitalism or communism has little if anything to do with it - it never did.

Edited by eyeball

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It details how the Russian government set up the giveaway of a state company which printed textbooks. It wound up with a friend of Putin's at a fraction of its cost.

From what I understand, this is how the USSR went as it fell apart: state assets were simply seized by business oligarchs.

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Even if there was a coup in Russia and Russians adopted our system of governance the result would be that most wealth and power would still eventually end up in fewer and fewer hands and whether you subscribe to capitalism or communism has little if anything to do with it - it never did.

Countries like Russia have no tradition of democracy, civil society or relatively honest capitalism. Thus, whatever the system of government is called, whether it be czarism, dictatorship or crony capitalism, or even nominally elected, the result you describe will obtain. Edited by jbg

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Do polls in a not-free country prove anything? Isn't it sort of like 100% elections in Communist and Muslim countries?

This is so true... but it could also be true that someone like Putin has popular support, with or without State media propaganda.

Propaganda? I'm inclined to believe that democracy is the ultmate power because people ultimately vote with their feet.

=====

At present in Russia, I have no doubt that Putin still has popular support. His support rather is, more critically, lacking among a smaller group in Moscow (and Siberia) - and keep in mind that Putin is from Leningrad, an ambitious outsider.

Ancient Russia only changed power through death. Modern Russia deposed two leaders alive (Khrushev and Gorbachev) and only Yeltsin surrendered power voluntarily.

Will oligarchs or siliviki depose Putin? To me, it has nothing to do with "oligarchs" or power. Rather, it has to do with people in Moscow (and Siberia) who enjoy a normal life.

Increasingly, I believe that Putin will be deposed as Khrushchev was: Putin is taking Russia in a direction that "important people" don't want.

Simply stated: I doubt that Putin will die as president. This is a process. Slavs are stubborn.

Edited by August1991

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At present in Russia, I have no doubt that Putin still has popular support.

Cite:

http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2014/12/18/390756/majority-of-russians-support-putin-poll/

A recent opinion poll shows that support for Russian President Vladimir Putin has not declined despite economic difficulties and US sanctions against the country.

The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll suggests that more than 80 percent of the country’s people still support the Russian leader.

In the poll, which was conducted between November 22 and December 7, about 81 percent said they strongly or somewhat approved of Putin’s performance as president.

This shows an increase of more than 20 percentage points since an AP-GFK poll back in 2012.

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I believe that the Russians are a very nationalistic culture with a long history of persevering under attack. It is a very proud nation which has been humiliated over the past few years. The sanctions from the West because of Russian activity in the Ukraine are seen by the populace as another attack on them - not Putin. The idea of a Russian Crimea and the activity Putin continues in that area is seen by most Russians as a positive move to allow Russians in Ukraine to stay Russian rather than being marginalized in a West dominated Ukraine.

I believe Putin will withstand this attempt to weaken his leadership, continue to annex parts of Ukraine to build a land bridge to Crimea and will be needed by the West if we ever want to get disentangled from that fiasco in the Middle East.

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The sanctions from the West because of Russian activity in the Ukraine are seen by the populace as another attack on them - not Putin.

Sanctions are an act of war via economics. Which in many cases lead to conventional war. The embargo on Cuba did not hurt Castro at all. The sanctions on Iraq did not put the suffering on Hussein Sanction on North Korea does not get rid of their dictators. Each and every time there are sanctions, it is the people who suffer, not the leaders. Even in our democracies anything against our government really does not seem to affect them too much. but it does affect every other citizen of this nation.

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The sanctions from the West because of Russian activity in the Ukraine are seen by the populace as another attack on them - not Putin.

Sez who?

====

As I posted above, for some thousand years or so all Russian leaders (except for Khruschev, Gorbachev and Yeltsin) lost power by death.

So the question to Putin is: will you give up power only when you die?

Edited by August1991

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