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bush_cheney2004

Let's make Some Easy Money - Oil ETFs

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Now that oil has gone up and back down near to those lows, how's that easy money coming?

And back up again...........As goes the markets. Patience for the short-medium-long games rewards those unwavering and not fickle......buy now, and in the next several months when demand again increases you'll make money.

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And back up again...........As goes the markets. Patience for the short-medium-long games rewards those unwavering and not fickle......buy now, and in the next several months when demand again increases you'll make money.

No thank you. I'll buy stocks which have a strong, positive up side NOW, not which might have one in several months.

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No thank you. I'll buy stocks which have a strong, positive up side NOW, not which might have one in several months.

Wish I could know what's going to be on the "positive up side NOW" like you.

Such clairvoyance!

Mind sharing with us some of these stocks that you know about?

If you tell me yours I will tell you mine - although let me be clear that I do not make any claims to competently predict the future.

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Wish I could know what's going to be on the "positive up side NOW" like you.

Such clairvoyance!

Mind sharing with us some of these stocks that you know about?

If you tell me yours I will tell you mine - although let me be clear that I do not make any claims to competently predict the future.

You know what I've found over the years of keeping both my own portfolio and a number of other 'mock' portfolios? Momentum works really well - until it stops. But then, when it stops, you can get off and jump on another that's moving in the right direction. Oh yes, yes, I know this is not what we've been told we should be doing. But with a little refinement to it, like not buying stocks which are purely speculative, whose momentum is based on something which is in the past, or where the underlying value isn't there, it does tend to work. At least in today's market.

The TSX is up less than 2% this year. I'm up 10%.

The TSX was up about 8.6% last year. I was up 19%. My mock 'full momentum' portfolio was up 26%. My mock "buy and hold blue chips" portfolio, on the other hand, was up 11.5%. The year before that I was up over 20%

The largest holdings in my portfolio at the moment are Constellation Software, Apple, Starbucks, SPDR Biotech ETF and CGI Group. But I've enjoyed a lot of profit on smaller holdings in smaller Canadian health/pharma, bio firms. My Concordia Health Care has doubled, for example, though I am currently out waiting for them to do a financing, then will get back in. Patient Home Monitoring and Merus Labs have also been very good to me. I also like Martinreau and Enghouse.

Sometimes the momentum reverses, then I leave, and jump into something else, unless I really have confidence in the company.

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There are many different ways to make money in any market.

You implied that you had some kind of list of stocks that you would buy now.

I too own some of what you have - but I have little desire to buy more Apple shares, for example, as I think they are much closer to a top.

In the past several months I have continued to accumulate Europe and some select emerging markets and am now going to hold.

As for specific picks - I have recently picked up some Western Forest Products shares - strange given that I dumped a bunch at $2.70 not long ago. Picked some up for $1.88 and will hold for them to go back up into the mid $2 range.

My other pick is Royal Dutch Shell - battered down, has nice dividend yield, sells at a better EV/EBITDA than its competitors, etc...

Of course both of these stocks could go down further.

I wouldn't be surprised if they did and have no problem accumulating them at lower prices as I see fit.

But over time I expect them to go up and I am patient.

Anyone else have picks?

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There are many different ways to make money in any market.

You implied that you had some kind of list of stocks that you would buy now.

I keep several watchlists of stocks which I've been told are great companies, have looked at their numbers, and are keeping an eye on. I have a bank watch list, a REIT watch list, a US watch list, an ETF watch list, and a Canadian watch list, plus a list of stocks I've owned but sold. I look at those lists every day, at least the top performers on them, and when it's time to buy something new the stock I buy will certainly come from one of those lists. I'll make my decision in part based on past performance (momentum) in part on the numbers and in part on what the 'experts' (taken with several grains of salt) think of the companies involved. I currently own no oil or oil services stocks, no pipelines, no telcoms, no utilities and no banks.

Stocks I don't currently own but am keeping a very close eye on include Canadian Solar, Great Canadian Gaming, Extendicare and NXP Semiconductors.

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The U.S. is switching to more expensive summer blends, refinery explosion, labour strikes, summer driving season....you know....the usual stuff.

Canada won't build more east-west pipeline capacity or refineries, so guess where the bitumen goes ?

USO is trending up to nearly $21.00 U.S. per share.

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I keep several watchlists of stocks ....

Stocks I don't currently own but am keeping a very close eye on include Canadian Solar, Great Canadian Gaming, Extendicare and NXP Semiconductors.

Sounds like you know what you are doing. I don't trade much in the US market because of the low dollar and the exchange conversion plus the extra charge. I had a run with stem cells now done with it, it good betting things things don't work out by phase II and usually never make it to market only few. TD and National Bank split a few months back and are not that much up from the spilt.

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Sounds like you know what you are doing. I don't trade much in the US market because of the low dollar and the exchange conversion plus the extra charge. I had a run with stem cells now done with it, it good betting things things don't work out by phase II and usually never make it to market only few. TD and National Bank split a few months back and are not that much up from the spilt.

I get most of my money in US currency so I have a US dollar account. That's one of the reasons I have a lot of US stocks. Plus, they have a size that just can't be found in Canada.

I bought Dow Chemical not long ago. I own Apple, Starbucks, Disney and United Healthcare. These are companies of a size and steadiness you'd have a hard time finding in Canada aside from some very slow moving pipelines and banks. It's good for diversity in my portfolio.

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I bought Dow Chemical not long ago. I own Apple, Starbucks, Disney and United Healthcare.

Those are good to follow. I am not on top of the trading as I am too busy now, but I have what I call a play on ABX interchangeable in the markets for which I day trade. If you are on top of earnings, savvy and access "in the news" I have bet on previously on volatile shocks LULU, Twitter, ABK filed bankcrupcy...but you really have to be prepared and know what you are doing :unsure: I don't recommend following suite.

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I am implementing a new investing strategy: every time the Financial Post prints Kevin O'Leary's opinions about the NDP ruining Alberta I buy another 100 units of XEG.

This should prove interesting and fun if not profitable.

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I am implementing a new investing strategy: every time the Financial Post prints Kevin O'Leary's opinions about the NDP ruining Alberta I buy another 100 units of XEG.

This should prove interesting and fun if not profitable.

I dunno about O'Leary you'd probably be better off losing mindlessly on own :(

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I dunno about O'Leary you'd probably be better off losing mindlessly on own :(

Nah, it's like a drinking game.

My point is that certain people say the sky is falling when most of the time it isn't.

Sure the NDP can screw up Alberta. No doubt.

But I think the AB O&G industry has bigger issues such as world oil supply and demand that will either work in their favour or not.

If the price of oil goes down to $22 or up to $142 then that will be the factor that determines how XEG does.

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Ok, I just Twitter searched "Kevin O'Leary Jeopardy" and think that is justification to buy more XEG in the morning.

Pure gold: "Mr Wonderfull" (sic) ended up at -$2,800.

Aaron Rodgers won.

Edited by msj

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Ok, I just Twitter searched "Kevin O'Leary Jeopardy" and think that is justification to buy more XEG in the morning.

I am completely out of oil and oil related stocks and will stay out. I really don't understand why people are buying them given the very, very obvious and increasing surplus of oil vs weak demand. Speculators are driving up the price in the short term but I don't see it going anywhere but down before very long.

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Fair enough.

I have some exposure to O&G indirectly thanks to buying into Russia while it was going down. I should probably sell while the going is good....

I have bought and sold future type ETF's (UGAZ and DGAZ for natural gas primarily) - just trading positions though - if I see a trend up or down I'm not afraid to buy into it even though I admit any money I have made doing this has been likely nothing more than luck.

Other than that, XEG is now my only direct purchase in O&G although I continue to stalk many companies.

The investment itself is so small as to be a rounding error so it really makes little difference one way or the other.

My portfolio is built on buying and then accumulating investments while they are "cheap" or undervalued. Then I hold. Then usually the investments go up and I sell.

Doesn't always work that way. Sometimes I get impatient and sell (often too soon so I have learned to become more patient).

The reality is, most of my portfolio is built to do well with falling oil prices. Probably too much of it is that way.

So, for diversification purposes, and since I have no ability to predict anything, I figure why not be "early."

And if solar and wind power make further breakthroughs and make my O&G investments worthless, well, I am willing to take that loss if it means those bastards in Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Alberta are no longer taking royalties from me while pollution reverses and the world gets better.

That would be wonderful.

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Well, yet another topic in which I'm a noob! Recently I've made a decision to get serious about educating myself in something called seasonal investing/trading. Has anybody heard of this? It seems like a logical approach or at least a way to get my feet wet in this area.

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Well, yet another topic in which I'm a noob! Recently I've made a decision to get serious about educating myself in something called seasonal investing/trading. Has anybody heard of this? It seems like a logical approach or at least a way to get my feet wet in this area.

No. Cyclical stocks tend to have very wild swings. These sorts of choppy up and down stocks are probably not right for a "noob".

Blue chips are still the most solid kind of investment you can make if you don't have a lot of experience and knowledge, not to mention time to monitor things. Next to that, solid, stable, large cap stocks that will produce reliable results and still have growth (preferably without the wild swings) are good. Watch BNN's market call and market call tonight, but make sure you listen with a grain of salt.

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Yeah, that sounds out of my comfort zone. I don't suppose you've heard of Michael Campbell, of Moneytalks fame? He seems like a pretty good financial guru, and he's had on his show guys like Don Vialoux who preach this seasonal approach, and have a firm that's listed on the TSX as HAC, some kind of ETF.

Michael has been talking about mid May to late October as being a good time to seasonally get out of the market as it often goes down then. Also that oil(and I'm talking ETF's here) could typically be rising until the end of August. Anyway, I'll check out the BNN market call tonight, I need to get more familiar with the investment game.

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Ignore financial shows like this where the noice to signal ratio is off the charts.

Find some good people to follow - I like Barry Ritholtz and Josh Brown (aka the Reformed Broker) the best because I like people who are willing to say "I don't know what the market is going to do but here is what I do know...."

Remember the hierarchy of learning information: books > articles > TV > tweets

For lists of books to read consider: Jason Zweig's list or Patrick O'Shaughnessy's list

Or start with the obvious ones: Benjamin Graham's The Intelligent Investor, Buffetology by Mary Buffet, The Black Swan by Nassim Taleb, and Against the Gods by Peter Bernstein would be a good start.

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Or just put your money in broad index tracking ETFs and forget about it. That's the best investment advice for probably more than 90% of people. The chance that you can consistently outperform the market with an investment strategy you learn by reading a few books is very slim, unless you are either extremely lucky, have access to inside information, have access to large amounts of extraordinarily cheap capital, or can invest it into your own business that generates superior returns. Even the vast majority of mutual fund managers, people whose entire careers are centered around trying to get the best possible investment returns for their clients, underperform the market in the long term.

As for oil... I think right now is a decent time to buy companies like CVX and XOM. They are going at low valuations right now and paying high dividend yields, and their share price recovering sooner or later seems likely.

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