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August1991

Dealing With Putin

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I reckon that the Western civilized countries should negotiate this:

-Russia can have Crimea

-Russia can have Donetsk and the eastern/Russian portion of Ukraine where people speak Russian

(IOW, draw a line)

Then:

-Ukraine joins NATO

-build a large military base in Estonia, or Lithuania

-move all American NATO troops from Germany to Finland and Ukraine

====

Make no mistake. This would be a message to these ISIS idiots.

(BTW, while Truman was negotiating in Potsdam with Stalin, Truman also decided to drop the bomb on Hiroshima. Talk about sending a message!)

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Sounds like a good idea.

Would NATO want the new Ukraine in their fold?

What advantage would that give to the NATO countries?

Ukraine has not had a stable government for many years. A rogue Ukraine would put NATO into a very difficult situation.

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I reckon that the Western civilized countries should negotiate this:-Russia can have Crimea-Russia can have Donetsk and the eastern/Russian portion of Ukraine where people speak Russian(IOW, draw a line)Then:-Ukraine joins NATO-build a large military base in Estonia, or Lithuania-move all American NATO troops from Germany to Finland and Ukraine====Make no mistake. This would be a message to these ISIS idiots.(BTW, while Truman was negotiating in Potsdam with Stalin, Truman also decided to drop the bomb on Hiroshima. Talk about sending a message!)

You want NATO to invade Finland???

Then you say it is a message to ISIS... as if they are worried about what happens between Russia and NATO.

This is a great August post.... pure gold!!

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This is a great August post.... pure gold!!

Some Western Leftists believe that Obama (a US President) can somehow bring a Russian president into the western fold.

Other Western Leftists believe (like Obama, a US President) they can somehow bring radical Muslims to believe in Western ideals.

Other Westerners, like Galileo, Voltaire and Churchill, understand that this is a hard struggle against obscurantism.

Edited by August1991

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Some Western Leftists believe that Obama (a US President) can somehow bring a Russian president into the western fold.Other Western Leftists believe (like Obama, a US President) they can somehow bring radical Muslims to believe in Western ideals.Other Westerners, like Galileo, Voltaire and Churchill, understand that this is a hard struggle against obscurantism.

Tell us more about the invasion of Finland....

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Or, simply mass 500,000 NATO troops on the Russian border with Ukraine.

Putin is a bully who knows that his opponents in the West are weak and indecisive. His assessment is correct and accurate.

The only thing that will change his mind on that is a visible and substantial threat to his country and himself..

In the abscence of that, he'll do what he pleases.

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Sounds like a good idea.

Would NATO want the new Ukraine in their fold?

What advantage would that give to the NATO countries?

Ukraine has not had a stable government for many years. A rogue Ukraine would put NATO into a very difficult situation.

Should be quite upset about what is going in on Turkey then.

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The problem with Ukraine is that with its present-day borders it is a completely artificial country. Hence the civil war. Do you really think the so-called separatists are some kind of terrorists as the west likes to paint them as? If they were how could they control just a large territory?

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The worst thing you can do is issue threats or ultimatums to Putin. He will accept the challenge every time. If you want to negotiate with him, it really does have to be an open discussion with no lines in the sand. Building up military presence around him? That is a challenge he'll gladly accept. How many lives are the NATO countries willing to sacrifice in order to fail in attempting to send this message?

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I'm not sure... maybe something like... we're in Finland now ISIS ! So... watch it...

?

I am sure they would be scared if that was the case. The current actions of ISIS prove to me they are not slowing down anytime soon.

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Tell us more about the invasion of Finland....

I would assume the OP’s correlation between Finland and Putin’s Russia is a reference to historic aggression on the part of Russians towards Finns, dating back several hundred years……and most recently.......

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I hope this ceasefire holds, a buffer zone is created, a future date is set for a referendum in the contested oblasts in Eastern Ukraine as to their wishes to join Russia or stay with Kiev - organized and monitored by the EU.

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The worst thing you can do is issue threats or ultimatums to Putin. He will accept the challenge every time. If you want to negotiate with him, it really does have to be an open discussion with no lines in the sand. Building up military presence around him? That is a challenge he'll gladly accept. How many lives are the NATO countries willing to sacrifice in order to fail in attempting to send this message?

Well said.... while it sounds great to "stand up to the bully and punch him in the nose", doing so militarily is sheer stupidity.

It will have to be economic. If Russia is cut off from the rest of the world and living standards fall back to what they were in the USSR, that would do more to change the country than any show of military might. It's not as exciting, and there is less chest thumping... the hawks hate it... but it is more likely to work and less dangerous for everyone involved.

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Well said.... while it sounds great to "stand up to the bully and punch him in the nose", doing so militarily is sheer stupidity.

It will have to be economic. If Russia is cut off from the rest of the world and living standards fall back to what they were in the USSR, that would do more to change the country than any show of military might. It's not as exciting, and there is less chest thumping... the hawks hate it... but it is more likely to work and less dangerous for everyone involved.

Nope.

The only thing that will back Putin off is a punch in the mouth. He has operated like this all his life.

Economic sanctions won't work, there are plenty of countries who must have the natural gas(inclduing much of Western Europe) and plenty of other countries willing to buy what he has to sell.

The Russian people love this stuff, the military incursions.

Next up for some Putin style bullying: Kazahkstan, followed by some of the Baltic States.

Why not, he knows Europe is utterly spineless?

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Or, simply mass 500,000 NATO troops on the Russian border with Ukraine.

Putin is a bully who knows that his opponents in the West are weak and indecisive. His assessment is correct and accurate.

The only thing that will change his mind on that is a visible and substantial threat to his country and himself..

In the abscence of that, he'll do what he pleases.

The problem is, the West doesn't like what Russia is doing but isn't willing to start a war with Russia over a country that isn't a NATO member and it really doesn't care a huge deal about compared to other countries (like Western countries). Russia tested the West on this, and saw the results. Russia probably also isn't willing to go to war with the West over eastern Ukraine but has much more incentive to do so if it has to.

Now let's imagine that Russia invaded, occupied, and was trying to annex all of Ukraine. What should the West's response be? Would it start war with Russia? What is the line where NATO should start lining up the tanks and troops right in front of Russia's army and draw a line in the sand, which may potentially start up a war? Is eastern Ukraine, or the entirety of Ukraine, and the principle of state sovereignty worth getting into a big war for?

Those are tough questions. That's why Obama is in a really tight spot. He either plays it careful as he has and looks like a wuss, or takes a hard line and potentially starts a large war with Russia, which obviously comes with its own consequences politically. You can't bring NATO troops and tanks etc. into Ukraine and line them up next to a warzone (eastern Ukraine) without careful thought, because what happens if a Russian tank or separatist troop fires on NATO forces and kills a few US soldiers? Then what?...do you send a response by firing back? Do you just sit by with no response and look weak? Do you slink back with no response at all?

Edited by Moonlight Graham

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Those are tough questions. That's why Obama is in a really tight spot. He either plays it careful as he has and looks like a wuss, or takes a hard line and potentially starts a large war with Russia, which obviously comes with its own consequences politically. You can't bring NATO troops and tanks etc. into Ukraine and line them up next to a warzone (eastern Ukraine) without careful thought, because what happens if a Russian tank or separatist troop fires on NATO forces and kills a few US soldiers? Then what?...do you send a response by firing back? Do you just sit by with no response and look weak? Do you slink back with no response at all?

Valid points, but by the same token, the Second World War could have been prevented or significantly shortened had the British (and Commonwealth), French and Americans acted once Hitler annexed the Sudetenland in 1938…..Does this mean Putin is the next Hitler and we’re about to fight a third world war? I don’t know, but Putin, like Hitler, is intent on “reuniting” ethnic Russians in neighbouring countries into a strong centralized Russian state.

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Well said.... while it sounds great to "stand up to the bully and punch him in the nose", doing so militarily is sheer stupidity.

It will have to be economic. If Russia is cut off from the rest of the world and living standards fall back to what they were in the USSR, that would do more to change the country than any show of military might. It's not as exciting, and there is less chest thumping... the hawks hate it... but it is more likely to work and less dangerous for everyone involved.

Right, because actual tough sanctions that disable a well armed nation's economy worked ever so great against the Empire of Japan.......

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Valid points, but by the same token, the Second World War could have been prevented or significantly shortened had the British (and Commonwealth), French and Americans acted once Hitler annexed the Sudetenland in 1938…..Does this mean Putin is the next Hitler and we’re about to fight a third world war? I don’t know, but Putin, like Hitler, is intent on “reuniting” ethnic Russians in neighbouring countries into a strong centralized Russian state.

Ok, so what would your response have been (if you were POTUS) when Putin invaded Crimea and then attempted to annex it?

At what point should the West draw the line and engage in war when sovereign territory is illegally invaded/occupied/annexed?

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I can see why the people in Russia find Putin so popular

11002588_382533018598326_230972488331950

WWWTT

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Now let's imagine that Russia invaded, occupied, and was trying to annex all of Ukraine. What should the West's response be? Would it start war with Russia? What is the line where NATO should start lining up the tanks and troops right in front of Russia's army and draw a line in the sand, which may potentially start up a war? Is eastern Ukraine, or the entirety of Ukraine, and the principle of state sovereignty worth getting into a big war for?

You don't need to imagine it, Putin has gained control of eastern Ukraine at a minimal cost. And Eastern Ukraine is the resource and industrial core of the Ukranian economy. That's why Ukraine will never again have the option of turning to the West or joining the EU. They're effectively bankrupt and will be obliged to do what they're told by the USSR, sorry Russia. After he waltzed off with Crimea, this latest incursion was inevitable.

Yes, that is exactly what NATO should be doing: draw a line in the sand and tell him to back the **ck up. That is the only way to slow him down before he annexes everybody weak on his borders. And he will back off, because he is much weaker militarily than a united West.

It won't happen though, and he knows it. The display of spinelessness by Hollande and Merkel must have him laughing. He rolled the dice and knew what would happen before it did.

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I can see why the people in Russia find Putin so popular

11002588_382533018598326_230972488331950

WWWTT

Fantasy. about 90% of that money has gone to the kleptocrats, which most definitely includes Putin himself.

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Gentlemen,

You are all smart guys, but sorry you have no idea what is going on in Ukraine (and Russia).

Briefly.

1. Putin is a new czar of Russia. Right now Russia = Putin. His power is absolute. There is no any feedback from people.

2. Putin does not want to annex any part of Ukraine other than Crimea.

3. Putin does not want to start a new world war (he has no resources, his money is in the Western banks or real estate).

4. Putin wants to remain a ruler of Russia until his last day. He is ready to sacrifice millions of lives to achieve his goal.

5. Putin is not Hitler. Putin is much worse.

6. Modern Russia is not a new Soviet Union, it is much weaker.

7. There is no any significant separatist movement in mainland Ukraine. This is a war between Russia and Ukraine.

That's it.

It is very difficult to deal with Putin. However, it is still possible. If the West wants to bring Russia to some controllable condition, IMHO, two things are required:

1. Do not allow Putin to crush Ukraine (by providing Ukraine with modern weapons, recce technology and communications, economical support).

2. Mount economical and political pressure on Russia.

Sooner or later, Russia will follow the path of the Soviet Union.

No NATO troops are required.

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Fantasy. about 90% of that money has gone to the kleptocrats, which most definitely includes Putin himself.

Also #6 world economy.

WWWTT

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