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cybercoma

Why the NDP will lose the next election

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I'm still holding the opinion that Harper wins the next election, despite popular support slightly in favour of the NDP at the moment. Here's why.

To win elections you need to take seats from your opposition. Looking at the regional breakdown, it doesn't look like the NDP is gaining any seats. Atlantic Canada heavily favours the Liberals. Québec favours the NDP again, but it will be awfully difficult for them to gain seats there. I'll come back to Ontario in a moment. Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta are all in favour of the Conservatives. BC is leaning NDP, but it also leaned NDP in the last election. The NDP failed to win a substantial number of seats then and I don't think they'll swing many more seats their way this time either.

Ontario is the kingmaker here. Obviously, ON has the most seats in the house. Polling shows a statistical tie in Ontario at the moment and polling has not been particularly favourable to the NDP here. Historical aversion to the NDP, thanks in part to Rae Days, keeps them from getting traction here. Without a significant and substantial breakthrough in Ontario, Mulcair will not gain the seats he needs to win the election.

Expect a lengthy courtship with Ontario voters from the NDP over the coming weeks. It has already begun with promises of subways to Scarborough. But will it be enough? At the moment, it doesn't appear so.

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To make matters worse, the NDP's traditional base is shifting to the Greens all over the country. A Quebec MP from Montreal announced this weekend that he will be running for the Greens. In New Brunswick, the former leader of the NDP in the province put her support behind the Green party in the provincial election.

Why are they bleeding support? Because Tom Mulcair's NDP is a centrist labour party. They're social democrats and the democratic socialists that traditionally made up a significant proportion of NDP support are dissatisfied with the party moving to the right. Many will hold their noses and vote Anything But Conservative this fall; however, a lot of these folks are of the mind that they would rather vote for a party that represents their views than play the ABC game.

Couple that with Elizabeth May's stellar performance at the last debate and the NDP may get stabbed in the back while it's focused so intently on Harper.

Edited by cybercoma

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Did the NDP poll this well in BC in 2011 (see p. 10)?: http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/Nanos%20Ballot%202015-08-07E.pdf

You need to keep the relative numbers of seats of provinces in mind. The Liberals won a (narrow) minority in 1972, even though the PCs beat them in every province except Quebec (and NB, where they were tied): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_election,_1972#Results_by_province. The PET-era Liberals won majorities when they took both ON and QC.

I also think the NDP is likely to pick up some seats in the Prairies, with some of the new ridings in SK. I'm not really convinced that the 'Bob Rae effect' is as strong as people make it out to be: for one thing, Rae was good to Northern Ontario, which has consistently given seats to the NDP. There's plenty of federal and provincial NDP support in blue-collar Ontario cities. There are a lot of seats in Toronto which have usually gone to the Liberals. I'm interested to see which way these go.

I myself am leaning towards voting Green, though, especially since my riding is almost guaranteed to the NDP.

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Did the NDP poll this well in BC in 2011 (see p. 10)?: http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/Nanos%20Ballot%202015-08-07E.pdf

You need to keep the relative numbers of seats of provinces in mind. The Liberals won a (narrow) minority in 1972, even though the PCs beat them in every province except Quebec (and NB, where they were tied): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_election,_1972#Results_by_province. The PET-era Liberals won majorities when they took both ON and QC.

I also think the NDP is likely to pick up some seats in the Prairies, with some of the new ridings in SK. I'm not really convinced that the 'Bob Rae effect' is as strong as people make it out to be: for one thing, Rae was good to Northern Ontario, which has consistently given seats to the NDP. There's plenty of federal and provincial NDP support in blue-collar Ontario cities. There are a lot of seats in Toronto which have usually gone to the Liberals. I'm interested to see which way these go.

I myself am leaning towards voting Green, though, especially since my riding is almost guaranteed to the NDP.

The recent surge of NDP and Liberal support in Alberta, Ontario, and maybe ..maybe according to this poll the Federation is a testament to the number of Canadians who are now latched firmly onto the public teat.

They rely on the union slug mentality types like Wynne, Notley, and Mulcair to shovel the proceeds productive Canadians earn into their hands, in exchange for their vote.

Basically Costs nothing Day care? Sure no problem..but first we need to hire thousands of lazy low education union layabouts to manage it.

Canada Post home delivery at the loss of hundreds of Millions? ...Absolutely, but of course first, we need to hire back all the grade nine drop out adult paper boys and girls.

Dont like having to compete on your merits and productivity? Hey no problem we will just pull out of the TPP talks , in fact ALL FREE TRADE, and everything will be fine...Except that all those other countries will now only trade with their partners in the agreement before even buying a dollar worth of our over priced union slug stuff.

The same unions that are the masters of Mulcair and the NDP have progressively dumbed down Canadians to the point where they think Government is the solution to all their shortcomings and will provide everything they need through TAXING the rich ( aka Productive Canadians)

Elect Mulcair and watch this country turn into the SH--ter Ontario is .

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No one knows who going to win for sure but many voters are saying they will vote for the party (NDP or liberal) that is leading in the polls. Will it works, who knows but many Canadians want Harper gone. No party has been re-elected that has brought changes to CPP OAS and EI.

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Dont like having to compete on your merits and productivity? Hey no problem we will just pull out of the TPP talks , in fact ALL FREE TRADE, and everything will be fine...Except that all those other countries will now only trade with their partners in the agreement before even buying a dollar worth of our over priced union slug stuff.

That's an interesting point for people to dwell on. If we don't sign on to the TPP - for example because the NDP want to "protect" our dairy industry at all costs, what would happen? Just as a huge number of people shop at Walmart and Costco for the best price - market demand will end up leaving Canada - with its "protected" industries - out in the cold. But it gets worse.....when TPP countries maintain their tariffs on Canadian products - but eliminate them for their TPP counterparts - our products are immediately over-priced. How do we compete? Reduce the price. How do we reduce the price? Reduce the wages of the people who provide the product. What if they are already low-paid? Lay some off. What if you still can't make ends meet? Close the business - or move somewhere else.

The NDP has never been in favour of Free Trade. Think about it.

Edited by Keepitsimple

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One point of contention amongst long-timie NDP supporters is that Mulcair hasn't ruled out the TPP. So all of this fear-mongering about him rejecting the TPP and being entirely against free trade is actually wrong. If you look into the internal party politics you would see that.

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Mulcair is much more to the right than much of the NDP. That may cause him problems in the long run, but it certainly isn't hurting him right now.

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Mulcair is much more to the right than much of the NDP. That may cause him problems in the long run, but it certainly isn't hurting him right now.

That's what I'm saying. People make up this mind-numbing nonsense about the NDP being socialist like the South American regimes. Meanwhile, Mulcair is about as socialist as UK Labour, which has actually upset some people in the party. A lot of those people are moving over to the Greens which is interesting. I'm sitting back watching because I want to see if the Greens go from a progressive conservative like party to a more socialist party, further left than even the NDP.

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I'm sitting back watching because I want to see if the Greens go from a progressive conservative like party to a more socialist party, further left than even the NDP.

I think we're about to see a realignment of Canadian politics, where we have a left right spectrum that includes 4 parties, going from the Greens to the CPC, all cannibalizing each others base.

Edited by Smallc

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That's what I'm saying. People make up this mind-numbing nonsense about the NDP being socialist like the South American regimes. Meanwhile, Mulcair is about as socialist as UK Labour, which has actually upset some people in the party. A lot of those people are moving over to the Greens which is interesting. I'm sitting back watching because I want to see if the Greens go from a progressive conservative like party to a more socialist party, further left than even the NDP.

So you are saying these NDP supporters aren't happy with Mulcair?

I used to be a firm believer in the ideology of the NDP Socialist Caucus. I wonder what % of NDP membership consists of supporters of the Socialist Caucus?

http://www.ndpsocialists.ca/

Edited by socialist

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Did the NDP poll this well in BC in 2011 (see p. 10)?: http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/Nanos%20Ballot%202015-08-07E.pdf

You need to keep the relative numbers of seats of provinces in mind. The Liberals won a (narrow) minority in 1972, even though the PCs beat them in every province except Quebec (and NB, where they were tied): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_election,_1972#Results_by_province. The PET-era Liberals won majorities when they took both ON and QC.

I also think the NDP is likely to pick up some seats in the Prairies, with some of the new ridings in SK. I'm not really convinced that the 'Bob Rae effect' is as strong as people make it out to be: for one thing, Rae was good to Northern Ontario, which has consistently given seats to the NDP. There's plenty of federal and provincial NDP support in blue-collar Ontario cities. There are a lot of seats in Toronto which have usually gone to the Liberals. I'm interested to see which way these go.

I myself am leaning towards voting Green, though, especially since my riding is almost guaranteed to the NDP.

Where does Mulcair stand on unity?

PMSH has brought a measure of peace to the discontent artificially stirred up by PET. Canadians — including most of the population of Quebec — were cleverly used by the Quebec establishment and by the man who craved acceptance in Quebec, Trudeau, to convince everyone that Quebec was and is a have not province. Anyone truly understanding Canadian history would know otherwise.

The elite in Quebec intentionally stirred up the 'ordinary man' there, so as to use the threat of separation. By introducing a Charter, Trudeau bypassed parliament and used the Supreme Court to 'create' a bilingual establishment in Ottawa — not of course excluding the Supreme Court — while marginalizing Anglo influence in the government bureaucracy, and of course anywhere bilingualism could be used to curb Anglo power and increase the power of the Quebec establishment.

Separation was the straw man Trudeau and company used to threaten Canadians. Chrétien was almost down on his knees just prior to the last referendum. He and of course his predecessors and the Quebec establishment overplayed their hand. They had a Tiger by the tail. If it wasn't for Canadians from across the land travelling to Montreal, waving a giant flag, Quebec would have no doubt separated.

The Quebec establishment almost got what they calculated to use only as a threat; separation. Thankfully, Canadians managed to do the right thing at the right moment in history. Thankfully, Canada has today a Prime Minister who has the interests of everyday Canadians in mind. His push back against Quebec, metastasizing bureaucracies ... and their handmaidens, the unions, some provincial premiers, and a couple of would be Prime Ministers, who appear both cravingly venal and mindlessly naïve about the consequences of their urge to create an even larger unaccountable socialist bureaucracy, has so far been masterful.

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I won't hesitate to admit my vote goes to the party most likely to turn Harper out of office. So far that's the NDP.

This is a big problem with Canada. People voting because of a manufactured cliche/slogan instead of understanding the important issues. Canadians are too complacent and a majority will believe 100% of what they hear from the left wing media party.

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This is a big problem with Canada. People voting because of a manufactured cliche/slogan instead of understanding the important issues. Canadians are too complacent and a majority will believe 100% of what they hear from the left wing media party.

Nonsense, it's called strategic voting. Besides, most of us are now tired of Conservative tough times and corruption.

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Nonsense, it's called strategic voting. Besides, most of us are now tired of Conservative tough times and corruption.

The PQ has a new leader and is gaining in the polls, while lending aid to the Bloc. Mulcair's Quebec NDP caucus is full of separatists, past, present and future, with only one goal in mind - doing away with the clarity act and enforcing the Sherbrooke Declaration. Then there's boy blunder's team of nobodies run by Toronto Liberal Party elites, who have no idea of the Quebec situation, or what is happening in the Francophone community. Meanwhile Mr. Harper has made it clear, that he can win a majority without Quebec, as he has done in the past and that it is up to Quebec to take his offer or not. One can only hope they chose the wise course and accept it, this time.

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I think we're about to see a realignment of Canadian politics, where we have a left right spectrum that includes 4 parties, going from the Greens to the CPC, all cannibalizing each others base.

Rather Quebecers know Trudeau and the Liberals, That's why outside of the English enclave of Montreal, they consistently vote against the Liberal party. As for Mulcair, his power base rests on Quebec Separatists and he'll do or say anything to keep it intact. The Conservative strength in Quebec may fool you this time around. Especially if you don't follow the Quebec French media. Wait and see.

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I think we're about to see a realignment of Canadian politics, where we have a left right spectrum that includes 4 parties, going from the Greens to the CPC, all cannibalizing each others base.

Perhaps a further realignment is more accurate.... The Cons gained a majority by cannibalizing the center last election, from the Liberals. They could do that because enough Canadians were convinced that after 5 or 6 years they could not find that Secret Agenda.

And that is where the votes have always been in Canada: we do tend to like politicians who squat hard in the middle, not matter what they call themselves.

The NDP rank and file have rejected a shift for decades, and I am not convinced that Mulcair has the weight to do it. Layton could have and would have, except for that whole inconvenient death thing.

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The NDP rank and file have rejected a shift for decades, and I am not convinced that Mulcair has the weight to do it. Layton could have and would have, except for that whole inconvenient death thing.

The other problem - Layton was more left wing than Mulcair.

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The PQ has a new leader and is gaining in the polls, while lending aid to the Bloc. Mulcair's Quebec NDP caucus is full of separatists, past, present and future, with only one goal in mind - doing away with the clarity act and enforcing the Sherbrooke Declaration. Then there's boy blunder's team of nobodies run by Toronto Liberal Party elites, who have no idea of the Quebec situation, or what is happening in the Francophone community. Meanwhile Mr. Harper has made it clear, that he can win a majority without Quebec, as he has done in the past and that it is up to Quebec to take his offer or not. One can only hope they chose the wise course and accept it, this time.

Bingo.

What happened to our young idealistic teacher?

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The other problem - Layton was more left wing than Mulcair.

Layton had the muscle to move the party to the middle, which both he and Mulcair know is essential to gaining power federally. It is and was the only logical step after their success in Quebec last time.

I don't think Mulcair has the same swat.

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Bingo.

What happened to our young idealistic teacher?

Maybe you haven't heard, but my philosophies have undergone a major metamorphosis. I see things much differently than I did before. I've been talking to many of people; reading a lot of books; doing some serious soul searching...and I have come to the conclusion that socialism is a scourge to society...rewarding the lazy and unmotivated.

I consider myself a Libertarian now, but I am still in the soul searching phase.

Edited by socialist

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Layton had the muscle to move the party to the middle, which both he and Mulcair know is essential to gaining power federally. It is and was the only logical step after their success in Quebec last time.

I don't think Mulcair has the same swat.

I think the BQ will gain more than a few seats in this election, especially with Duceppe back in the BQ party. The separatists will have to answer one question on the way to the polls this election - has the NDP stood up for Quebec over the last four years, like the BQ did before it? I think the answer is no, notwithstanding the Sherbrooke Declaration. Something else to consider, when talking about the BQ's chances - would Quebecois vote for a party that has unknown candidates, no money and no showing in the Quebec polls? They are too politically intelligent to do that, right?

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The other problem - Layton was more left wing than Mulcair.

Bear in mind that Mulcair was elected leader by the entire party in a run-off ballot.

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Bear in mind that Mulcair was elected leader by the entire party in a run-off ballot.

He's a centrist though.

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