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Things to look forward to as a result of the election


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Hopefully, we'll see the media-driven legitimacy of the Green Party come to an end. Does anyone know - other than May's riding - whether the Green Party placed 1st, 2nd, or 3rd in any ridings and if so, how many? The only one I've found is Victoria where they finished a strong second.......I believe everywhere else, they finished a dismal and distant 4th.

Edited by Keepitsimple
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I disagree. Longer campaigns provide more time for people to consider the issues. The fact that people change their mind is a sign that the longer campaigns matter. If the result ended up matching the initial polls you would have a point.

These are popularity contests, and people would still be changing their mind no matter how long an election takes. And the campaigning doesnt wait for elections to start its always happening.

30 days is plenty of time.

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I'm looking forward to all the people on this forum protesting that 61% of votes were against the Liberals and yet they got a majority! Only 26% of eligible voters voted for the Liberals! 74% of eligible voters did not vote for the Liberals. I await these protestations from all those who made the exact same points about the previous Conservative majority....

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<crickets>

Um, yes, I do take issue with this, and took issue with it when Chretien was PM as well. At least the LPC has said they will reform the electoral system and the level of autonomy of MPs in the House. Whether they keep this promise is one thing I will definitely judge them by.

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I'm looking forward to all the people on this forum protesting that 61% of votes were against the Liberals and yet they got a majority! Only 26% of eligible voters voted for the Liberals! 74% of eligible voters did not vote for the Liberals. I await these protestations from all those who made the exact same points about the previous Conservative majority....

...

...

...

...

<crickets>

Crickets? Theres still plenty of posts about electoral reform today. Maybe uhhhhh... read stuff?

In any case you are right to point out that we have another powerful majority government that was only given a mandate by ~40% of the people that voted, and an even smaller percentage of those elligable to vote.

THe problem is I doubt you will see the Liberals do much about making the system more representitive because they are one of the biggest benefactors of the FPTP system. Id love to be proven wrong but Im not expecting it.

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I'm looking forward to all the people on this forum protesting that 61% of votes were against the Liberals and yet they got a majority! Only 26% of eligible voters voted for the Liberals! 74% of eligible voters did not vote for the Liberals. I await these protestations from all those who made the exact same points about the previous Conservative majority....

...

...

...

...

<crickets>

Those points still hold. I have already connected with other people who are going to try to ensure electoral reform isn't going to be forgotten by this government. Have you?

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I'm looking forward to all the people on this forum protesting that 61% of votes were against the Liberals and yet they got a majority! Only 26% of eligible voters voted for the Liberals! 74% of eligible voters did not vote for the Liberals. I await these protestations from all those who made the exact same points about the previous Conservative majority....

...

...

...

...

<crickets>

I think it's wrong, and hoping the Liberals keep their word.

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Actually, the premise of STV is that no one's vote is wasted. If there is not enough Green Party support for a Green candidate to win a seat, those voters' second preferences would be counted.

But you don't get proportional support. I think the purpose of a representative democracy should be to try to represent the diversity of political views in the country. How does a party like the greens not getting proportional representation result in a system that achieves the goals of proportional representation?

Edited by -1=e^ipi
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But you don't get proportional support. I think the purpose of a representative democracy would be to try to represent the diversity of political views in the country. How does a party like the greens not getting proportional representation result in a system that achieves the goals of proportional representation?

Well, if you look at party affiliation as the only thing that matters, your interpretation is correct. But there are other ways of looking at it. In STV, everyone's vote can count towards a representative, and their order of preference is taken into account.

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But you don't get proportional support. I think the purpose of a representative democracy would be to try to represent the diversity of political views in the country. How does a party like the greens not getting proportional representation result in a system that achieves the goals of proportional representation?

Even in MMP/MMR systems like Germany, some parties will get little or no support. Most proportional systems that I am aware of set up a low end performance barrier (say 5%).

The fact is that the Greens have steadily been losing support since 2008. Under just about any electoral system I can imagine they would not even have a single MP, so I would think the Greens should be pleased that they got one.

Democracy doesn't mean that every single party has a representative. That's absurd. We'd have to have a Parliament of a thousand seats to pull that off.

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Hopefully, we'll see the media-driven legitimacy of the Green Party come to an end. Does anyone know - other than May's riding - whether the Green Party placed 1st, 2nd, or 3rd in any ridings and if so, how many?

Victoria, possibly.

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Hopefully, we'll see the media-driven legitimacy of the Green Party come to an end. Does anyone know - other than May's riding - whether the Green Party placed 1st, 2nd, or 3rd in any ridings and if so, how many? The only one I've found is Victoria where they finished a strong second.......I believe everywhere else, they finished a dismal and distant 4th.

Victoria, possibly.

See my post: http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums/topic/25180-green-party-support/?p=1107313

They have significant regional support in SW BC.
Media-driven? Of course they will get media coverage... they are a party with a seat in the House of Commons. Just because you don't agree with them, doesn't mean they shouldn't have a voice or that they shouldn't put forward ideas and issues.
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Victoria, possibly.

Their vote share fell nearly half a point from 2011. There has to be a point where everyone says "Enough" and stops trying to give this fringe party some sort of lift into the stratosphere of parliamentary parties. Maybe they will be a force to be reckoned with in BC, but on the Federal stage, they're going backwards.

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Well, if you look at party affiliation as the only thing that matters, your interpretation is correct. But there are other ways of looking at it.

Like people looking at individual candidates? That's primarily an issue because we have so few major parties. In the long run, proportional representation will result in our 3 major parties splitting into smaller parties, which will allow people to vote for a candidate that more accurately represents their views; so these other factors won't matter so much.

In STV, everyone's vote can count towards a representative, and their order of preference is taken into account.

Order of preference isn't that big of a deal for proportional representation because that's what parties forming coalitions are for. The the voters of party A generally like party B as the second best choice, then most likely party A will try to form a coalition with party B.

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See my post: http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums/topic/25180-green-party-support/?p=1107313

They have significant regional support in SW BC.

Media-driven? Of course they will get media coverage... they are a party with a seat in the House of Commons. Just because you don't agree with them, doesn't mean they shouldn't have a voice or that they shouldn't put forward ideas and issues.

We've had independents in the HoC before, and no one ever gave them that much attention.

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Even in MMP/MMR systems like Germany, some parties will get little or no support. Most proportional systems that I am aware of set up a low end performance barrier (say 5%).

There should be no such barrier.

Democracy doesn't mean that every single party has a representative.

That's not the position I advocate. I advocate proportional representation (with rounding error obviously). Given the number of seats we have, any party that has more than 0.3% of the popular vote should have seats in parliament.

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We've had independents in the HoC before, and no one ever gave them that much attention.

They're Independents... in a single riding. That's not the same as having Party with candidates in every riding across Canada and regional support in some other ridings. Plus, a high-profile leader.

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Their vote share fell nearly half a point from 2011. There has to be a point where everyone says "Enough" and stops trying to give this fringe party some sort of lift into the stratosphere of parliamentary parties.

Or... strategic voting.

I think strategic voting is a better explanation for why green party support is lower.

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Possibly... but this is just speculation.

And there are ways of testing this speculation by looking at growth in green party support in swing ridings relative to safe ridings.

Edit: Just looking at the results in the Ottawa region, green party support is highest in the Ottawa-Vanier riding, which is the safest riding in Ottawa, but not the most left-leaning. So I think that is an indication of strategic voting.

Edited by -1=e^ipi
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Or... strategic voting.

I think strategic voting is a better explanation for why green party support is lower.

Except the Green party has seen declines in two consecutive elections now. In 2008 they had 6.78% of the vote, a respectable showing. In 2011 they dropped by nearly half to 3.91%, and in this election down half a point to 3.45%. About the best you can say about this election is that they didn't get as badly mauled as they did in 2011, but overall this is trend leading to nowhere. So you can blame strategic voting if you like, but the fact is that despite two elections where May has been given an enormous amount of media attention, all she's doing is soft landing the Greens into oblivion.

I'll be blunt. The Greens are a phenomena of south and central Vancouver Island and the Sunshine Coast. They aren't a factor of note anywhere else, and at best, under some other electoral system, they might expect a handful of additional seats. They are a minor party that has received a lot of attention and very little to show for it.

Maybe a different electoral system will give them an edge, but I see little evidence that they are a national force of note. Heck, they're not even really a force of note in BC, beyond that southern coastal region.

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I make a little too much to receive the middle class tax break, and i lose income splitting, which will cost me thousands, but hey, im sure someone else needs it more than my two very close to university age children, of course this isnt even to mention how emboldened Wynne will become after this result, so I expect my provincial taxes and just about everything else the government controls to rise. I suppose i could work less hard and be less productive and get a 1.5% tax cut, and still lose thousands.

I'm sure your children will be fine. My family all made it through university without the help of mommy and daddy. It's fun to pay your own way! Though under Trudeau we may get a tuition break so fear not, things may even out.

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There should be no such barrier.

That's not the position I advocate. I advocate proportional representation (with rounding error obviously). Given the number of seats we have, any party that has more than 0.3% of the popular vote should have seats in parliament.

If you did that, you would have the most extreme form of PR in the world. I wouldn't support that and I doubt you would find many political scientists that would.

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