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Cruz On The Way, 2016 Election USA

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Some day there might be a gay president. Some day there might be a female president. Maybe some day a robot president (maybe Rubio still has a shot at becoming the first?) and someday maybe even an atheist president.

There may have already been a a gay or atheist president....just didn't know it.

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I would not assume that either Cruz or Trump will end up as the Republican choice.

The winner will have to end up with at least 1,237 votes (out of 2,472). At this time the Donald is holding a lead but there are lots of interesting things to come. If no one individual has the 1,237 votes after the first vote at the convention, then ALL delegates are free to switch to another candidate still in the running.

States that hold their primaries between March 1 and March 14 will award their delegates on a proportional basis, meaning that no one candidate could win the nomination before late-voting states get to hold their primaries.

States voting in March 15, or later, will award their delegates on a winner-take-all basis. That may create a large voter shift.

Then there the "bonus" delegates. These are the sitting party presidents, governors, Senators, House members and other chambers. These folks are staunch party members who may be reluctant to vote for the Anti-party Trump and the unpopular Cruz. This "bonus" group gets 419 votes.

All kinds of strange things can happen. Penalties (loss of votes) can be applied to states for different reasons. A new contender can be nominated from the assembly. Any delegation can be challenged for any voting irregularities.

I believe that the Republican Party is far stronger and better organized than the Donald. I predict that if Donald does not come into the convention with at least 1,237 delegates that he will not be the winner. A "stop Donald" wave will knock him off the podium. The Donald may be a billionaire but the party is made up and supported by a whole bunch of billionaires.

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Carson is pulling out. I think that support will go to Rubio. I get the impression that the Donald is being supported by a very tight group and if someone has not come out for Trump already then they will support a pro-party candidate.

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Carson is pulling out. I think that support will go to Rubio. I get the impression that the Donald is being supported by a very tight group and if someone has not come out for Trump already then they will support a pro-party candidate.

I tend to agree. I think that Kasich needs to get out of the race as well. After March 15th, whoever is in the best situation between Cruz and Rubio needs to carry on. The other needs to drop out.

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Then there the "bonus" delegates. These are the sitting party presidents, governors, Senators, House members and other chambers. These folks are staunch party members who may be reluctant to vote for the Anti-party Trump and the unpopular Cruz. This "bonus" group gets 419 votes.

That's how it works in the Democratic race, not the GOP, which has its own rules with regards to "Super-delegates".

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I tend to agree. I think that Kasich needs to get out of the race as well. After March 15th, whoever is in the best situation between Cruz and Rubio needs to carry on. The other needs to drop out.

Right, and going forward, the race is leaving the South, the battleground where Cruz was suppose to be strong....

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The remaining hope for Republicans who dread the idea of Trump being the nominee appears to be a "brokered convention", which means that if Trump doesn't obtain a majority of the delegates, then when they go to the national convention this summer, the delegates who oppose Trump can get together and decide to join forces behind a single candidate. When they do the votes, the candidate they rally behind might have more votes than Trump. That would anger an awful lot of people, though. Imagine if Trump went to the convention with 48% of delegates, and Cruz with 22% of support and Rubio with 18% and they got together with other delegates from other candidates who've dropped out, and they do the vote and Cruz wins 51% to 49%. It would make it look like the party essentially got together to overthrow the clear choice of the voters... and it would completely alienate all of the new voters Trump has brought to the party. and it would undermine the legitimacy of the nominee, Cruz in this example.

-k

I'm sure it would it, but then, if the majority of the GOP doesn't want Trump, a Trump nominee would anger even more people............of historic note, the last GOP nominee to win the nomination, but lose in Texas during the primary, was President Ford in 1976 to Ronald Reagan........and Ford went on to loose a close race with the Peanut Farmer.......

One thing to consider, going into Super Tuesday last night, the polls and pundits expected Trump to sweep all the States except Texas......which he clearly didn't do, and had close contests in several States he did win........hardly a win for the establishment/Rubio, and not the Huuuuge win expected of Trump, in my opinion, last night's winner (if there was one) was Cruz, that clearly did better than expected.

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Best quote ever:

Cruz promised to rein in the military, audit the Pentagon and figure out why it’s spending so much cash. Then he promised to add 125,000 troops to the Army, 177 ships to the Navy and expand the Air Force by 20 percent.

lol

This is why The Donald is going to kick ass!! Be prepared for a few very entertaining years!

When The Donald is the only one making any sense, you know you have problems!! http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2016/03/02/trump-is-right-about-defense-spending-and-that-should-scare-you/

Edited by The_Squid

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That's how it works in the Democratic race, not the GOP, which has its own rules with regards to "Super-delegates".

Thank you for your comments. The Democratic Party has the Superdelegates which are unpledged going into the convention. There are about 720 and a list of them can be found at:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Democratic_Party_superdelegates,_2016

The Republicans have Bonus Delegates of which there are 439.

"For Republicans, each state receives three delegates for each congressional district — a population component — and five delegates for each senator. There also are three automatic party delegates and bonuses based on whether the state voted for the Republican nominee in a previous presidential election, or has a Republican governor, Republican senators, or Republican-controlled state legislative chambers. That is the partisan loyalty component."

You can find more information at:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/R-Alloc.phtml

I stand by my original post.

Edited by Big Guy

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Right, and going forward, the race is leaving the South, the battleground where Cruz was suppose to be strong....

They'll need to come together and figure that out. One would have to accept VP. Right now Cruz would be in a stronger position having won 4 contests so far to Rubio's 1. I'd prefer Rubio/Cruz but would accept Cruz/Rubio. My perfect scenario would be Rubio/Kasich. They'd be impossible to beat. They'd be starting with Florida and Ohio already practically locked up.

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I stand by my original post.

By all means, but it is incorrect, as this is the first election of the changed GOP rules:

The GOP, however, has decided to establish fewer superdelegates than the Democrats. In the Republican Party, the only people who get superdelegate status are the three members of each state's national party. This means that in the GOP, superdelegates are only about 7 percent of the total number of delegates.

The more important distinction, though, is that Republican superdelegates do not have the freedom to vote for whichever candidate they please. The Republican National Committee ruled in 2015 that their superdelegates must vote for the candidate that their state voted for, and that's the biggest difference between Republican and Democratic superdelegates.

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They'll need to come together and figure that out. One would have to accept VP. Right now Cruz would be in a stronger position having won 4 contests so far to Rubio's 1. I'd prefer Rubio/Cruz but would accept Cruz/Rubio. My perfect scenario would be Rubio/Kasich. They'd be impossible to beat. They'd be starting with Florida and Ohio already practically locked up.

As would I, but they have to continue to play spoiler with Trump and hope for a brokered convention.......my question, is Trump's performance last night, not sweeping the States (absent Texas) as expected, an indication that the tide is starting to change for Trump.......and if so, is it too little too late?

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As would I, but they have to continue to play spoiler with Trump and hope for a brokered convention.......my question, is Trump's performance last night, not sweeping the States (absent Texas) as expected, an indication that the tide is starting to change for Trump.......and if so, is it too little too late?

Yes...it is too little too late. Any inside party moves to strip Trump of the nomination will only backfire. Trump has done something that no Republican candidate has ever done in the early going...win primaries in a string of northern and southern states.

Cruz will have to voluntarily fold now to give Rubio/Kasich any chance of stopping Donald Trump.

Romney is trying to take down Trump with dirt, but if you have ever wrestled a "pig" in the mud, you soon figure out that he likes it.

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Yes...it is too little too late. Any inside party moves to strip Trump of the nomination will only backfire. Trump has done something that no Republican candidate has ever done in the early going...win primaries in a string of northern and southern states.

No Republican candidate? Even "W" had a good showing North & South........

Cruz will have to voluntarily fold now to give Rubio/Kasich any chance of stopping Donald Trump.

Right, but Cruz is only a couple mid-sized States behind Trump......I can't see Cruz packing it in anytime soon.

Romney is trying to take down Trump with dirt, but if you have ever wrestled a "pig" in the mud, you soon figure out that he likes it.

Right, but I wonder how much the coverage and tone would change in a general.........

Trump nomination = a 2020 GOP primary thread on MLW ;)

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Cruz said last night that he wants to scrap the IRS and go to the straight tax. I can't believe people take this guy seriously.

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By all means, but it is incorrect, as this is the first election of the changed GOP rules:

Thank you for the reference. Assuming your source is correct then you are correct and I am mistaken. I think you for the correction. I am now better informed.

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Thank you for the reference. Assuming your source is correct then you are correct and I am mistaken. I think you for the correction. I am now better informed.

My source is correct, but if you feel you need confirmation, you can see here:

The Call also notifies the states that do not bind their RNC members that the RNC will bind those members at convention. The unbound RNC members will be bound in the same manner as the state’s at-large delegates, unless the state elects their delegates on the primary ballot, then all three RNC members will be allocated to the statewide winner.

And if you're still unsure, feel free to read the entire RNC convention call here.

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I'm sure it would it, but then, if the majority of the GOP doesn't want Trump, a Trump nominee would anger even more people............

Similar logic was employed by Stephane Dion and allies during their ill-fated attempt to undo the results of the 2008 election. It went over like a turd in a punchbowl. The majority may not want Trump, but clearly far fewer want either Cruz or Rubio.

One thing to consider, going into Super Tuesday last night, the polls and pundits expected Trump to sweep all the States except Texas......which he clearly didn't do, and had close contests in several States he did win........hardly a win for the establishment/Rubio, and not the Huuuuge win expected of Trump, in my opinion, last night's winner (if there was one) was Cruz, that clearly did better than expected.

It was a beatdown, and IMO calling Cruz a winner because he won his home state to avoid getting swept seems comparable to calling one of Ronda Rousey's opponents a winner because she survived for 30 seconds instead of 15.

-k

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Similar logic was employed by Stephane Dion and allies during their ill-fated attempt to undo the results of the 2008 election. It went over like a turd in a punchbowl. The majority may not want Trump, but clearly far fewer want either Cruz or Rubio.

Right, and there be the problem.........and is why a brokered convention is possible, absent one of Cruz or Rubio dropping out yesterday.

It was a beatdown, and IMO calling Cruz a winner because he won his home state to avoid getting swept seems comparable to calling one of Ronda Rousey's opponents a winner because she survived for 30 seconds instead of 15.

-k

I think you missed my point, Trump was suppose to run the table minus Texas......but he lost Alaska and Oklahoma to Cruz, and Minnesota to Rubio......and very nearly lost both Arkansas to Cruz, Virginia to Rubio and Vermont to Kasich.......the point, going in, Trump was expected to win all of said States (minus Texas) with ease.....but didn't.

That is why I wonder if there has been a shift in the race, a shift that might very well see neither Cruz or Rubio winning the nomination prior to the convention, but also preventing Donald Trump from doing so.

--------

If this weekend's States, then next Tuesday's States, all split among the three proportionally like they did last night, going into the March 15th winner take all States (Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Illinois and Missouri), we could quite easily see one of Cruz or even Rubio pull ahead of Trump....who despite all the hype (or doom and gloom), is only ~100 delegates ahead of Cruz, and ~200 and change ahead of even Rubio....

My point, there is plenty of race left, and Trump is still ~900 delegates away from a victory lap........

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A brokered convention would the the best thing that could happen. Very entertaining....

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It's amazing to watch the extra efforts to figure out how Trump could lose instead of how the others could win the GOP nomination.

Why is this surprising? "Anyone but Trump" will be the mantra of pretty much everyone with any sense in the GOP from here until the convention.... and then even at the convention! This will be a good referendum on who in the GOP has any sense! :)

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Why is this surprising? "Anyone but Trump" will be the mantra of pretty much everyone with any sense in the GOP from here until the convention....

Sorry, but the usual Canadian "ABX" approach to elections won't work here....American voters actually get a say in the primary/caucus process. Candidates have to compete...state by state. Enjoy the show !

Edited by bush_cheney2004

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