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Argus

Trump and Canada

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I don't think Trump thinks one way or the other about Canada, but I find it very hard to believe he's going to think much of Justin Trudeau, or vice versa. I think Trump and his VP are anathema to Trudeau and his entire cabinet. Trudeau or someone is going to have to sit on his people to keep them from making nasty comments to the media. Trump doesn't forget or forgive. 

Ironically, I think Harper would have gotten along with both him and Pence far better, particularly Pence, who is likely going to be by far the most powerful Vice President in US history. He and Harper share that evangelist stuff, and he and Trump would have respected Harper in a way they definitely won't respect Trudeau. 

This is going to be an isolationist government, and with so much of our trade with the US it's going to be important to try and maintain a good relationship, particularly in light of how vindictive and petty Trump can be towards perceived slights. It's going to be even harder because, no matter what he might say about wanting 'fair deals' in trade he has never sought fair deals with anyone before. He's sought to screw them over. Fortunately, Trump won't be in charge of much, other than as a general overseer. I think Pence will be the guy to deal with. Trump is not the sort to hold long meetings or read long reports. Pence will do that and verbally summarize what he thinks Trump needs to hear.

I don't think Pence is going to have much time for Trudeau either, though. Which does not bode well for NAFTA and other trans border agreements. I think the US is going to get even more heavy handed at its border because of the number of Muslims coming into Canada, and that Canada might also face heavy pressure due to its lack of military spending. In fact, Trump might want to make an example out of Trudeau in this regard. You can forget any sort of climate change legislation for the foreseeable future, which means Canada is left imposing heavy penalties on industries located here while no such penalties exist across the border. Which means even if NAFTA remains we're going to see a surge in relocations as industries move south to take advantage of the lower taxes and lower energy costs.

All in all, I see little good coming out of this presidency for Canada, other than that cross-border pipelines will be given the go-ahead.

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If CPC voters think their leader should get along well with the American president, then Kellie Leitch is the one to select to lead the party.  

http://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/kellie-leitch-latches-on-to-trump-victory/

 

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2 hours ago, Argus said:

border pipelines will be given the go-ahead.

That is also not necessarily a good thing since Trump has said he would only give the go ahead if TransCanada gives the US government a significant share of the profits it makes from the pipeline. IOW - he wants to impose a tax on Canadian oil that would not apply to US producers. Trump has also whinged about restrictions on Canadian log exports so things will be tough for Canada.

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Quote

Fortunately, Trump won't be in charge of much, other than as a general overseer. 

Quote

All in all, I see little good coming out of this presidency for Canada,

 

Trump will be fully in charge, and won't waste any time setting the tone and direction.  I also believe he will do exactly what he said he would do about bringing jobs back to the USA, and it may well be devastating for Canadas economy.

 

If I was Trump.... for example... I would instruct US corporations with branch plants in the USA to immediately repatriate those jobs, and sweeten taxes or incentives to those that comply, while penalizing corps that drag their heels.Many jobs were already lost in ON, that is going to accelerate.  The economic gain or loss to the US Treasury doesn't really matter, Trump would gain immense political capital with this sort of thing, it was a central plank of his successful campaign. .  The Rust Belt would love him.  I actually think we will be singled out a a country for this repatriation .  What can we do about it?  Nothing, really.  Mexico is a tougher nut because unlike us they are a less expensive place to operate.

 

I don't see any way to stop this.  I do not intend to buy any property in Ontario soon.

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2 hours ago, The_Squid said:

If CPC voters think their leader should get along well with the American president, then Kellie Leitch is the one to select to lead the party.  

http://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/kellie-leitch-latches-on-to-trump-victory/

 

How do you think our actual leader- Trudeau- will do with Trump?  He has the killer team of Dion and Freeland as point persons after all.  Do you see Justin and Sophie getting another free meal at the White House?.

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14 minutes ago, overthere said:

How do you think our actual leader- Trudeau- will do with Trump?  He has the killer team of Dion and Freeland as point persons after all.  Do you see Justin and Sophie getting another free meal at the White House?.

They will deal with Trump like every other progressive leader in the West will deal with Trump...   try not to get screwed too badly for the next 4 years.

If you think joining Trump at the hip would be good for Canada, then Leitch is your man...

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6 minutes ago, The_Squid said:

They will deal with Trump like every other progressive leader in the West will deal with Trump...   try not to get screwed too badly for the next 4 years.

If you think joining Trump at the hip would be good for Canada, then Leitch is your man...

LOL.  I don't think Team  Justin is going to do too well.  The Donald won't be swayed by Freeland crying, Dion wimping or Trudeau having better hair.  And here you are fixated on trivialities like Con leadership outliers, instead of the crushing effect of jonb loos that is likely imminent.  Could we see $100 billion deficits soon?  If not, why not?

 

Nobody is as obvious a target for instant repatriation of jobs as our industrial heartland.  I don't think Diversity is going to offset much of that.

 

I do expect that the PMO is cranking up the fog machine to shroud the real issue, the only issue: the economy. Lets talk about weed and immigrants instead- you know, the big important stuff!

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Trump isn't going to "save American jobs"...   he will more likely hurt the economy, which will in turn hurt the Canadian economy.  "Repatriating jobs" is a made up thing that isn't real.  You've drank the Koolaid...

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I didn't say Trump was going to 'save American jobs'.  Surely you can come up with a better deflection than that!

 

No, he is going to take Canadian jobs, it won't be difficult, and it will be immensely popular in his heartland.  

 

Oh, and speaking of Kool Aid, that brand is owned by Kraft Heinz Corp, HQ in Illinois.  Their Canadian subsidiary is Kraft Canada, which whacked 2500 CDN jobs just last year.  You can expect more of the same soon, though next time the push to get those jobs back to where they belong will have the Big Dog pushing the next round.  KoolAid will still be available.

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The failure has been the last 10 years where we didn't get a mile of pipeline to tidewater. If we were in the position, it would be as simple as turning off the taps and little Donald would be on his knees begging.

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20 minutes ago, ?Impact said:

The failure has been the last 10 years where we didn't get a mile of pipeline to tidewater. If we were in the position, it would be as simple as turning off the taps and little Donald would be on his knees begging.

 

That's true....Canada has always had a pair of ruby slippers to get its own pipelines and refining.

I hope that a President Trump works for American interests first, and that may or may not benefit Canada.   Canada's leader insulted Trump, his followers, and the USA....so give him something to be really mad about.  

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7 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

Canada's leader insulted Trump, his followers, and the USA....so give him something to be really mad about.  

 

When was that? I know he responded to a question about Trump with: "I don't think it comes as a surprise to anyone that I stand firmly against the politics of division, the politics of fear, the politics of intolerance or hateful rhetoric". Is that what you are talking about? That is hardly like Trump calling Trudeau "Canada's worst President"

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2 hours ago, overthere said:

If I was Trump.... for example... I would instruct US corporations with branch plants in the USA to immediately repatriate those jobs, and sweeten taxes or incentives to those that comply, while penalizing corps that drag their heels.

Uhm, you do realize that the vast majority of what those branch plants in Canada produce is sold in Canada, right? That's why they're HERE. If Trump orders them to bring the jobs home they will lose their markets since Canada will slap huge tariffs on anything they produce and try to ship here. The auto industry agreement, which was a percusor to NAFTA, had in mind sharing the jobs based in large part on consumption. If Ford, GM and Chrysler close their Canadian plants the Cdn government will impose huge taxes on imports from the US and leave the market to Honda, Hyundai, Toyota and Volkswagen, who will simply take over those empty plants and re-hire the workers.

Other US owned operations include energy and mining industries, and service industries. What are you going to do, order them to do the work from the US? I'm sure Starbucks would get a lot of customers giving them a slip and telling them to head to the nearest US border town for their coffee, and Wal-Mart would have buses to take them across the border. Of course, they'd face a 500% tariff on return....

On the other hand, it's this kind of ignorant, knee-jerk sort of proposal that people are afraid a bonehead like Trump might make.

 

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1 hour ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

Actually, the majority of Canadian auto and parts production is not sold in Canada...much goes to the USA.

You have a cite on that? I don't readily see one on the internet. However, Canada exported US$295 billion to the US last year while importing US$280 billion.

When you take into account US$70 billion of what Canada exported was oil the US is doing pretty well, jobs-wise, in this relationship.

Canada is the US' number one goods export market. When it comes to trade Trump has FAR better targets to pick on. China, for example, exports nearly four times as much as it imports from the US. The European Union, meanwhile, actually imports more from the US than it exports to them. There are issues the US has with trade, but it's not with EVERYONE.

https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/americas/canada

Edited by Argus

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19 minutes ago, Argus said:

You have a cite on that? I don't readily see one on the internet. However, Canada exported US$295 billion to the US last year while importing US$280 billion.

 

Here 'ya go....it's even a Canadian source:

 

Quote

International trade plays a prominent role in automotive industries because of the integrated structure of Canadian and American production. Most Canadian production is exported, almost exclusively to the United States. In 2012, for example, the United States accounted for 97.2% of all Canadian automotive exports.5 In turn, automotive imports from the U.S. are a key input into Canadian automotive production and exports, a characteristic that distinguishes automotive industries from other manufacturing industries (Cross and Ghanem 2008).

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/11-626-x/11-626-x2013026-eng.htm

 

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43 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

Here 'ya go....it's even a Canadian source:

You missed the point about US companies exporting to Canada and the auto parts trade is almost in balance.
So blocking Canadian imports would mean less money for Americans exporting to Canada.
 

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15 minutes ago, TimG said:

You missed the point about US companies exporting to Canada and the auto parts trade is almost in balance.
So blocking Canadian imports would mean less money for Americans exporting to Canada.
 

 

But most American production IS NOT exported to Canada..   Big difference.

The U.S. doesn't exist just to give Canada a viable auto/parts industrial base.

Name one major Canadian owned car make.

Edited by bush_cheney2004

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5 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

The U.S. doesn't exist just to give Canada a viable auto/parts industrial base.

California and Texas don't exist to give Detroit and Ohio and a viable auto/parts industrial base.
Given how California voted why should they want to buy cars from the people who foisted Trump on them.

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1 minute ago, TimG said:

California and Texas don't exist to give Detroit and Ohio and a viable auto/parts industrial base.
Given how California voted why should they want to buy cars from the people who foisted Trump on them.

 

California and Texas are U.S. states, not a foreign nation.   What part of foreign do some Canadians not understand ?

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6 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

California and Texas are U.S. states, not a foreign nation.   What part of foreign do some Canadians not understand ?

Really? Given the cultural differences between Texas and California they could be separate countries.
Why should car buyers in California pay more for auto parts so they can provide work for people in Michigan.
Why should Californians have more allegiance to the people who foisted Trump on them than people who they actually have something in common with across the northern border?

You want to make this all about self interest but you are simply assuming that it is in the self interest of other states to support a domestic auto industry. Why should it be?

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12 minutes ago, TimG said:

You want to make this all about self interest but you are simply assuming that it is in the self interest of other states to support a domestic auto industry. Why should it be?

 

Because California and Texas are a larger auto market than all of Canada.   California's CARB has actually set the pace for emissions standards and mileage efficiency.  Many tech firms that contribute to automotive engineering can be found in California.  Texas is the leading source for automotive fuels and refining of other transportation distillates. Both states are major ports of entry for raw materials and finished goods from overseas trading partners.

Canada is a leader in none of these things, and is very dependent on foreign capital investment.

Trump is right....U.S. first !   Canada can do whatever the hell it wants, maybe build a pipeline or refinery...it wouldn't kill 'ya.

Edited by bush_cheney2004

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1 hour ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

 

But most American production IS NOT exported to Canada..   Big difference.

No, the difference is the numbers are in balance. So how exactly would eliminating that do anyone any good?

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