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CPC 2017: Bernier vs Alexander


Who will lead the federal Conservatives in June 2017?  

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1 minute ago, Newfoundlander said:

Personally I couldn't give two F***s who Harper would vote for. The man is gone and it's time for the party to move on. Whoever becomes leader is going to have to figure out their own winning coalition in order to succeed.

 

Well you should care........Harper figured out one of the few winning formulas, and the next leader will need to repeat said formula.......unless you're expecting Mulroney 2.0

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He should be running for the liberals.

And proud of it. It would be terrible to be liked by racists, bigots, misogynists. The lower the score the better. 

I would go with O'Leary. Too many career politician idiots on the podium. Bernier is a dolt. He can't figure out how to use his  zipper is let alone a budget. I would vote for Bonnie Raitt not Li

7 minutes ago, Derek 2.0 said:

 

Well you should care........Harper figured out one of the few winning formulas, and the next leader will need to repeat said formula.......unless you're expecting Mulroney 2.0

Then there's this poll

https://www.google.ca/amp/globalnews.ca/news/3207501/kevin-oleary-justin-trudeau-conservative-leadership-race-poll/amp/?client=safari

time to start culling the herd...

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4 minutes ago, blueblood said:

And from said poll:

 

 

Quote

 

In the hypotheticals with Bernier or Leitch as leader, the results suggested the Conservatives wouldn’t fare much better than at present. Current voter preference (if there was an election tomorrow) shows 41 per cent favour the Liberals, 30 per cent favour the Conservatives and 19 per cent for the NDP, according to Ipsos.

In the above scenarios, O’Leary’s popularity appeared to come at the expense of the NDP among the decided voters polled.


 

 

And the chance of ~2% of NDP supporters joining the Tories and voting for O'Leary in the leadership race are? "Culling the herd" isn't something that would benefit O'Leary in the leadership race (with ranked ballots). 

 

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10 minutes ago, Derek 2.0 said:

And from said poll:

 

 

 

And the chance of ~2% of NDP supporters joining the Tories and voting for O'Leary in the leadership race are? "Culling the herd" isn't something that would benefit O'Leary in the leadership race (with ranked ballots). 

 

Tories are going to look at the tea leaves and see a candidate that has the advantage of name recognition and media savvy and judging by the polls many are coming to that conclusion that is what is needed to take on Trudeau.  Mad max is a flash in the pan

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8 minutes ago, blueblood said:

Tories are going to look at the tea leaves and see a candidate that has the advantage of name recognition and media savvy and judging by the polls many are coming to that conclusion that is what is needed to take on Trudeau.  Mad max is a flash in the pan

 

Ahh its tea leaves now.......let me know when O'Leary passes Bernier's support in the form of donations from the most diverse number of ridings across Canada 

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1 minute ago, Derek 2.0 said:

 

Ahh its tea leaves now.......let me know when O'Leary passes Bernier's support in the form of donations from the most diverse number of ridings across Canada 

You might want to check out olearys twitter feed...  he's doing pretty well with that

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5 minutes ago, blueblood said:

You might want to check out olearys twitter feed...  he's doing pretty well with that

 

What of it? Bernier is close to half a million (likewise Leitch)......O'Leary is gunning for $25k? Too bad all those polled aren't donating and joining the party..........

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3 minutes ago, Derek 2.0 said:

 

What of it? Bernier is close to half a million (likewise Leitch)......O'Leary is gunning for $25k? Too bad all those polled aren't donating and joining the party..........

The donors will eventually flip and deal with reality.  Bernier and leitch had almost a year of fundraising.  O'Leary is fine and his influence and support continues to grow

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Just now, blueblood said:

The donors will eventually flip and deal with reality.  Bernier and leitch had almost a year of fundraising.  O'Leary is fine and his influence and support continues to grow

 

How many CPC MPs or Senators are supporting O'Leary again? O'Leary has two months to sign up new members to vote for him, across the country, and four months to the convention........ 

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46 minutes ago, Derek 2.0 said:

 

How many CPC MPs or Senators are supporting O'Leary again? O'Leary has two months to sign up new members to vote for him, across the country, and four months to the convention........ 

As you know support changes amongst leadership candidates as the herd is culled.  Like I've said the polls dictate that O'Leary is clearly ahead of his fellow candidates as the best shot to beat Trudeau.  The other candidates don't come close, you can cling to the notion of the party, however O'Leary is still popular among the party and it's still early.

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2 minutes ago, blueblood said:

As you know support changes amongst leadership candidates as the herd is culled.  Like I've said the polls dictate that O'Leary is clearly ahead of his fellow candidates as the best shot to beat Trudeau.  The other candidates don't come close, you can cling to the notion of the party, however O'Leary is still popular among the party and it's still early.

You seem confused......if the polls you linked to are gospel, 2/3rds of voting party members don't favor O'Leary.......in a race with ranked ballots......a culling of the herd isn't a clear benefit.......for example, within the Conservative party there are various factions or wings, like church going social conservatives or gun owners. O'Leary is socially Liberal and anti-gun, ergo, its unlikely he'll be within the top three picks of such voters........He doesn't speak French, so that (and joining after the French debate) could alienate him in Quebec, remember, each Quebec riding has as much an equal voice as the bluest Alberta riding......he's made bonehead remarks about the military, another large block of voters within the party........

 

Despite such polls, O'Leary has to sign up a whole bunch of voters over the next two months.........and I wouldn't be surprised, like he himself has suggested, if he bows out and plays "kingmaker" once it becomes apparent he won't win......or he gets bored.

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49 minutes ago, Derek 2.0 said:

You seem confused......if the polls you linked to are gospel, 2/3rds of voting party members don't favor O'Leary.......in a race with ranked ballots......a culling of the herd isn't a clear benefit.......for example, within the Conservative party there are various factions or wings, like church going social conservatives or gun owners. O'Leary is socially Liberal and anti-gun, ergo, its unlikely he'll be within the top three picks of such voters........He doesn't speak French, so that (and joining after the French debate) could alienate him in Quebec, remember, each Quebec riding has as much an equal voice as the bluest Alberta riding......he's made bonehead remarks about the military, another large block of voters within the party........

 

Despite such polls, O'Leary has to sign up a whole bunch of voters over the next two months.........and I wouldn't be surprised, like he himself has suggested, if he bows out and plays "kingmaker" once it becomes apparent he won't win......or he gets bored.

The next election is going to be framed around the economy and O'Leary is pitching that as his strong suit and according to the polls many suggest that O'Leary has the best shot at taking Trudeau, the social conservatives will get in line as they can eat some humble pie to get the books back into balance.  If the cpc is stupid enough to put forth a leader solely on social conservative values, then the party deserves another 4 yrs in the desert.

oleary has committed to learning French and wasn't going to participate in a debate where he butchers French for 20 second soundbites.  I'd say that's pretty reasonable and the polls agree with me.  Name recognition and media savvy...

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2 minutes ago, blueblood said:

The next election is going to be framed around the economy and O'Leary is pitching that as his strong suit and according to the polls many suggest that O'Leary has the best shot at taking Trudeau

 

Not if he doesn't win the leadership race.

 

3 minutes ago, blueblood said:

the social conservatives will get in line as they can eat some humble pie to get the books back into balance.

 

"Get in line"? Ahh no, they won the leadership for Harper.......and he had to keep a lid on them. Why do you think they would vote for O'Leary when their are social conservatives that share much the same economic policies.

 

5 minutes ago, blueblood said:

 If the cpc is stupid enough to put forth a leader solely on social conservative values, then the party deserves another 4 yrs in the desert.

Harper was a social conservative.......O'Leary is, at best, a Red Tory or a Blue Liberal on social issues.

 

7 minutes ago, blueblood said:

oleary has committed to learning French and wasn't going to participate in a debate where he butchers French for 20 second soundbites.

 

And he'll sound like a moron debating Trudeau is French.......wanna guess who the last Prime Minister was that didn't speak French? 

 

12 minutes ago, blueblood said:

 I'd say that's pretty reasonable and the polls agree with me.

 

No they don't, you provided a dubious poll that showed O'Leary had the support of 1/3rd of voting Tory members.

 

13 minutes ago, blueblood said:

Name recognition and media savvy...

 

I don't deny that, but then Harper had neither and our current PM went into the election in third place despite his name and media attention.

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Derek 2.0 said:

 

Not if he doesn't win the leadership race.

The polls give him the best shot

13 minutes ago, Derek 2.0 said:

 

"Get in line"? Ahh no, they won the leadership for Harper.......and he had to keep a lid on them. Why do you think they would vote for O'Leary when their are social conservatives that share much the same economic policies.

They will vote for O'Leary or have Trudeau for longer.  O'Leary can manipulate the media along with having name recognition.  Harper had a terrible time with the media and Tory support stagnated.  Trudeau is savvy with the media.  O'Leary is the best shot at climbing that mountain, not a bunch of betas.

13 minutes ago, Derek 2.0 said:

 

Harper was a social conservative.......O'Leary is, at best, a Red Tory or a Blue Liberal on social issues.

Which will be fine for getting young Canadians into the fold.  O'Leary is only talking about finance.  The other issues he talked about- assisted suicide, abortion, marijuans have all been dealt with.

13 minutes ago, Derek 2.0 said:

 

 

And he'll sound like a moron debating Trudeau is French.......wanna guess who the last Prime Minister was that didn't speak French? 

O'Leary is learning right now and taking lessons.  He has two years.  Harper improved his french over time as do the others.

13 minutes ago, Derek 2.0 said:

No they don't, you provided a dubious poll that showed O'Leary had the support of 1/3rd of voting Tory members.

Ipsos says oleary has had the best shot of taking Trudeau.  Numbers are numbers and the social conservatives can look at reality in the face.  In the rural prairies there is a lot of talk of O'Leary taking it and possibly beating Trudeau, they don't give a rip about social conservative nonsense, just about canning Trudeau.

 

13 minutes ago, Derek 2.0 said:

 

I don't deny that, but then Harper had neither and our current PM went into the election in third place despite his name and media attention.

Trudeau knows how to make the media work as does O'Leary.  It's a battle the other candidates can't win as the media machine will chew them up.  O'Leary can get press and the others can't.  

 

 

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4 minutes ago, blueblood said:

The polls give him the best shot

 

No they don't.......as already explained to you, the leadership race is a ranked ballot vote..

 

5 minutes ago, blueblood said:

They will vote for O'Leary or have Trudeau for longer.  

 

Your cited polls show Trudeau beating O'Leary.......

 

5 minutes ago, blueblood said:

 O'Leary can manipulate the media along with having name recognition.

 

He can? How?

 

6 minutes ago, blueblood said:

Harper had a terrible time with the media and Tory support stagnated.

 

Harper had a terrible time with the media and improved in each election......until the last election.

 

8 minutes ago, blueblood said:

Trudeau is savvy with the media.  O'Leary is the best shot at climbing that mountain, not a bunch of betas.

 

"Best shot" is subjective........two polls showing losing to Trudeau and only have ~1/3rd of support among CPC party members doesn't, in my opinion, seem like "climbing the mountain".

 

10 minutes ago, blueblood said:

Which will be fine for getting young Canadians into the fold.  O'Leary is only talking about finance.  The other issues he talked about- assisted suicide, abortion, marijuans have all been dealt with.

 

How do you figure........if social issues have been "dealt with", why would "young Canadians" vote for O'Leary???? They typically don't vote, or vote for a progressive......

 

12 minutes ago, blueblood said:

O'Leary is learning right now and taking lessons.  He has two years.  Harper improved his french over time as do the others.

 

Ahhhhhhh......like Preston Manning?

 

13 minutes ago, blueblood said:

Ipsos says oleary has had the best shot of taking Trudeau.  

 

Ipsos said he'd still loose, and the Tories would be reliant upon attracting nearly a quarter of the current supporters of the NDP.........fantasy land :lol:

 

15 minutes ago, blueblood said:

Numbers are numbers and the social conservatives can look at reality in the face.  In the rural prairies there is a lot of talk of O'Leary taking it and possibly beating Trudeau, they don't give a rip about social conservative nonsense, just about canning Trudeau.

 

Numbers are numbers........these youngsters and NDP supporters better join the party quick so they can vote for O'Leary :lol:

 

16 minutes ago, blueblood said:

Trudeau knows how to make the media work as does O'Leary.  It's a battle the other candidates can't win as the media machine will chew them up.  O'Leary can get press and the others can't.  

 

It didn't hurt Harper, nor "chew him up", during his election victories.

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18 minutes ago, blueblood said:

 In the rural prairies there is a lot of talk of O'Leary taking it and possibly beating Trudeau, they don't give a rip about social conservative nonsense, just about canning Trudeau.

 

To add: What do you think "rural prairies folk" will think of O'Leary's own views on firearms? 

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This argument is pointless. Of course O'Leary performs best with the public because he's got name recognition. Neither O'Toole nor Scheer are known by the public. Bernier is, but only a little. Give one of them the leadership role and a couple of years to get themselves known and they can only go up. O'Leary's problem, as I see it, is he's mean and nasty. And that was what killed the Harper government. It wasn't because they were incompetent or had become corrupt. People were tired of their attitude. O'Leary has an even worse attitude. I think Scheer and O'Toole, who both give off an amiable niceness quality would disarm a lot of that. 

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1 hour ago, Argus said:

O'Leary's problem, as I see it, is he's mean and nasty.

While O'Leary certainly doesn't have a lot of the vile characteristics of Trump, yes he does have a very narcissistic streak an very little empathy. While he is fairly intelligent (not exceptional, but above average) and is well spoken, he is always focused on himself. Yes he has had some business success, but much bigger failures as well like losing billions for Mattel. Like Trump he is a slimy used car salesman (my apologies to the many good used car salesmen out there). 

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8 hours ago, Argus said:

Give one of them the leadership role and a couple of years to get themselves known and they can only go up.

 

Exactly, and to add, give them a couple more years of the Trudeau government........

 

8 hours ago, Argus said:

I think Scheer and O'Toole, who both give off an amiable niceness quality would disarm a lot of that. 

 

I agree, and they both (along with Bernier, Blaney, Raitt, Alexander and Trost) will be in my top 7 (of ten) when I cast my party ballot. 

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In fairness to O'Leary:

 

 

Quote

 

Conservative leadership candidate Kevin O’Leary raised $183,963.51 in a single day, according to his campaign.

 

The campaign says the funds were raised from 1,911 people after O’Leary put out a call to raise $25,000 before midnight on Jan. 26.

 

By contrast, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau raised $2,017,975 from 12,870 contributors during the entirety of his rough six-month Liberal leadership campaign.


 

 

That is impressive, lets see if it keeps up.......and translates into new people joining the party to vote for him

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53 minutes ago, OftenWrong said:

Shows where we are at, politically. This is coming,folks.

It could be, we'll have to wait and see if this translates into new members that will vote for him.........as I said, if he wins the leadership, I'll still vote Tory, but he doesn't have my party vote for the leadership....I still need to see some flushed out policies and for him to clarify (or retract) past statements and stances that he has made.

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2 hours ago, Derek 2.0 said:

It could be, we'll have to wait and see if this translates into new members that will vote for him.........as I said, if he wins the leadership, I'll still vote Tory, but he doesn't have my party vote for the leadership....I still need to see some flushed out policies and for him to clarify (or retract) past statements and stances that he has made.

 

I'm curious, can you imagine a circumstance where you'd not vote Tory?

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48 minutes ago, dialamah said:

I'm curious, can you imagine a circumstance where you'd not vote Tory?

 

If Kim Campbell came back and led the Tories. ;)

 

Joking aside, if Kellie Leitch won the leadership, I'd consider voting Libertarian......likewise, I'd consider voting for my NDP MP if it looked like he were in a tight fix against the Liberals or Greens.

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5 hours ago, Derek 2.0 said:

In fairness to O'Leary:

 

 

 

That is impressive, lets see if it keeps up.......and translates into new people joining the party to vote for him

That's the advantage of oleary's name recognition, media savvy, and alpha personality.  The herd culling can begin shortly...

olearys meat and potatoes are the economy and I believe a policy convention soon after would be in short order.  O'Leary has mentioned willingness to play nice with his competitors.

this is going to be an economic election which will play into olearys raison d'être.  For what it's worth coffee row in the heart of conservative country (prairies) is salivating at O'Leary picking apart Trudeau as people want the economy back on track.

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