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As expected, Canada's western provinces have their own take on NAFTA.    Ontario and Quebec have already screwed the West so many times, they are better organized for NAFTA's impact.   Look how dependent they are on exports to the evil USA:

 

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The western provinces have varying levels of reliance on trade with the U.S. In 2016, 86 per cent of Alberta’s total exports were sent to the U.S. About half of B.C. and Saskatchewan’s exports go to the U.S., 53 per cent and 48 per cent respectively last year. Manitoba shipped 67 per cent of total goods exports to the U.S. in 2016.

http://cwf.ca/news/blog/analysis-how-trumps-threat-to-scrap-nafta-could-unfold-and-what-it-means-for-western-canada/

 

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On 10/22/2017 at 2:22 PM, Rue said:

Trump has very little to do with NAFTA.

It comes down to are mega-national companies and businesses through governors,  senators and congressmen/women on lobbying for their interests not what Trump wants. 

Trump is basically a figure head who farts loudly at specific times thinking farting is an effective way into pressuring people into doing his bidding. All its done is have people clear the room and leave him isolated.

He's farted so many times now no one is in the same room as him.

Politics is about networking,. Trump is about shock farting-he farts to get attention. In so doing he alienates and with no network, with no allies, he can not get a thing done.

Bush gave a speech this week. Make no mistake. It was written by the big wigs in the Republican party warning Trump to shut the phack up. The Republicans realize they are all going to lose their seats and that Trump is  in self destruct alienating his best allies.

76% of Canada's economy is dependent on the US. If Trump blows up NAFTA all that happens is Canada will be forced to look elsewhere for trade and it should anyways. Its unacceptable 76% of our economy is US captive. It makes us a colony. We need o increase trade with the EU, Britain leaving the EU, Australia, New Zealand, Mexico, South America. We can and should set up free trade deals with other countries just as we did with Chile.

Canada should have in my opinion set up a joint aero industry program with SAAB in Sweden and explore military, air and shipping agreements with France, Britain, Holland, Sweden. Why we do not have a free trade deal with Argentina and Brazil is anyone's guess. We should have free trade deals with South Korea, Israel,  India and Japan.

We are lazy. We are lazy because US Senators, congressmen and women and Governors not Trump set up mutually beneficial relationships with us. If Trump wants to sabotage that so be it.

I personally think he's just a pathetic fool who farts and the senators, governors, congress reps and mega nationals in the US will not allow NAFTA to be blown up. This notion of isolationism Trump has may be worked in the 1920's but not today where the internet has made borders an anachronism to business and a hinderance.

Trump is a sad self destructing toad on his way out. He's been given one final Republican warning via the Bush speech. Nefore NAFTA blows up or Korea or Iran blows up the Republicans will oust him.

My prediction is in the next two years the Donald has a heart attack or a stroke and dies of natural causes.

Or he's removed by a sex scandal similar to Harvey Weinstein. These days taking down a loud farting baboon is not hard. No one thought Bill Cosby or Harvey Weinstein were capable of being brought down. Donald is easier to take down. He has no inner network protecting him and dependent on him. Trump's power comes from being able to use his powers to influence decisions ifavour of businesses. He's not doing that.  He in fact has a lot of contempt for big businesses because he himself is no businessman. He compensates trying to act like he was and still is one. He was and remains a salesman.

Someone who stands up in Peurto Rico and describes it as an island surrounded by big water is in no position to do anything. He's a pathetic idiot whose retardation can no longer be covered up..

 

Well that was an objective and logical post  :D

Trump is as slippery as an eel, it wouldn't surprise me dies of natural causes free and at the age of 105.

You're delirious if you think Trump is not influencing NAFTA negotiations. Like any business government can be micromanaged and that is exactly what Trump is doing, sure he has people "managing" aspects of running the country but don't be fooled for one second the moment something starts going awry he isn't going to be all over it...

States and provinces can make any deals they want, the second trade crosses international borders it has to meet federal rules and regulations,

Canada should take America's lead and start taking care of it's own needs, globalisation kills culture, independence and the environment. I can't believe people can't see this.    

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Stephen Harper has apparently written a memo on the NAFTA talks and expressed his disapproval of the way the Liberals are handling it. He makes two really good points which have occurred to me in the past, as well. First was the nonsense of the Liberals trying to include things like climate change, unions rights and gender equity in the negotiations. Seriously? With a Trump Republican government? Get real.  The second is the mystifying tactic of aligning ourselves with Mexico - Trump's number one target - rather than cutting ourselves loose. We don't need any sort of trade agreement with Mexico, and I was opposed to bringing them into the original free trade agreement in the first place. I'm certainly not open to sacrificing our economic success to protect Mexico.

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/politics/napping-on-nafta-harper-blasts-trudeau-government-handling-of-negotiations/wcm/b2d8ee2f-a7a2-4ec1-8bfd-f46f087beb36

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Here is a graphic representation of trade between Canada, Mexico, and the United States.    Trade between Canada and Mexico is an order of magnitude less than trade with the United States.

 

nafta-trade-triangle-us-canada-mexico-02

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10 hours ago, Argus said:

Stephen Harper has apparently written a memo on the NAFTA talks and expressed his disapproval of the way the Liberals are handling it. He makes two really good points which have occurred to me in the past, as well. First was the nonsense of the Liberals trying to include things like climate change, unions rights and gender equity in the negotiations. Seriously? With a Trump Republican government? Get real.  The second is the mystifying tactic of aligning ourselves with Mexico - Trump's number one target - rather than cutting ourselves loose. We don't need any sort of trade agreement with Mexico, and I was opposed to bringing them into the original free trade agreement in the first place. I'm certainly not open to sacrificing our economic success to protect Mexico.

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/politics/napping-on-nafta-harper-blasts-trudeau-government-handling-of-negotiations/wcm/b2d8ee2f-a7a2-4ec1-8bfd-f46f087beb36

I hope Harper didn't deliberately leak this. Negotiations with the Americans under Trump are difficult enough without former PMs getting involved in an unhelpful way. Trade between Mexico and Canada will increase and, in general, we should avoid purely bilateral negotiations which will always favour the stronger party. 

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If markets in Canada or Mexico are not large or developed enough to support an equal balance of trade with the United States, then additional limits / tariffs should be imposed with or without NAFTA to erase trade imbalances.

 

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Far more Canadians and Mexicans enter the United States under NAFTA professional TN visas than Americans going to Canada or Mexico.   This in-flow of cheaper foreign labour depresses wages for American workers and strips talent from source nations.

TFWs are resented in Canada, but it's OK to send tens-of-thousands more foreign workers to the United States ?

https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-commentary/off-balance-canada-the-us-and-labour-mobility/article36735645/

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On 10/28/2017 at 2:33 PM, bush_cheney2004 said:

Here is a graphic representation of trade between Canada, Mexico, and the United States.    Trade between Canada and Mexico is an order of magnitude less than trade with the United States.

 

nafta-trade-triangle-us-canada-mexico-02

Okay, the US buys Canadian built cars and Canada buys US built cars. Canada exports oil, grains and meat to the US, the US exports fuel, oil based products, grain products and processed meat to Canada etc.. Canadians are employed creating and mining raw materials, Americans are employed refining and producing finished products, I get that. Now this is Canada's basic trade agreements with most of our trading partners including Mexico.

If Canada produced refined and finished products for our own use as well as for export and imported products we cannot produce efficiently (bananas, coffee, cocoa etc.) why would that not be a good alternative? It would employ allot of people and move us forward technologically as well. 

I realize transportation employs allot of people but it is also big contributor to our environmental whoes. Increasing trade just for the sake of shipping products back and forth makes no sense, I can't believe people don't see this. We could actually become a leader instead of just following what everyone else is doing. 

Our government is on the verge of sacrificing whole industries for this, I realize these are relatively small industries (dairy, car parts etc.) but they are still Canadian industries that are doing relatively well as they operate now, why not leave them alone?  If you want German or American cheese, go there and enjoy it... They can come and enjoy ours :)

Edited by Thinkinoutsidethebox

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On 10/22/2017 at 1:22 PM, Rue said:

Trump has very little to do with NAFTA.

It comes down to are mega-national companies and businesses through governors,  senators and congressmen/women on lobbying for their interests not what Trump wants. 

Trump is basically a figure head who farts loudly at specific times thinking farting is an effective way into pressuring people into doing his bidding. All its done is have people clear the room and leave him isolated.

He's farted so many times now no one is in the same room as him.

Politics is about networking,. Trump is about shock farting-he farts to get attention. In so doing he alienates and with no network, with no allies, he can not get a thing done.

Bush gave a speech this week. Make no mistake. It was written by the big wigs in the Republican party warning Trump to shut the phack up. The Republicans realize they are all going to lose their seats and that Trump is  in self destruct alienating his best allies.

76% of Canada's economy is dependent on the US. If Trump blows up NAFTA all that happens is Canada will be forced to look elsewhere for trade and it should anyways. Its unacceptable 76% of our economy is US captive. It makes us a colony. We need o increase trade with the EU, Britain leaving the EU, Australia, New Zealand, Mexico, South America. We can and should set up free trade deals with other countries just as we did with Chile.

Canada should have in my opinion set up a joint aero industry program with SAAB in Sweden and explore military, air and shipping agreements with France, Britain, Holland, Sweden. Why we do not have a free trade deal with Argentina and Brazil is anyone's guess. We should have free trade deals with South Korea, Israel,  India and Japan.

We are lazy. We are lazy because US Senators, congressmen and women and Governors not Trump set up mutually beneficial relationships with us. If Trump wants to sabotage that so be it.

I personally think he's just a pathetic fool who farts and the senators, governors, congress reps and mega nationals in the US will not allow NAFTA to be blown up. This notion of isolationism Trump has may be worked in the 1920's but not today where the internet has made borders an anachronism to business and a hinderance.

Trump is a sad self destructing toad on his way out. He's been given one final Republican warning via the Bush speech. Nefore NAFTA blows up or Korea or Iran blows up the Republicans will oust him.

My prediction is in the next two years the Donald has a heart attack or a stroke and dies of natural causes.

Or he's removed by a sex scandal similar to Harvey Weinstein. These days taking down a loud farting baboon is not hard. No one thought Bill Cosby or Harvey Weinstein were capable of being brought down. Donald is easier to take down. He has no inner network protecting him and dependent on him. Trump's power comes from being able to use his powers to influence decisions ifavour of businesses. He's not doing that.  He in fact has a lot of contempt for big businesses because he himself is no businessman. He compensates trying to act like he was and still is one. He was and remains a salesman.

Someone who stands up in Peurto Rico and describes it as an island surrounded by big water is in no position to do anything. He's a pathetic idiot whose retardation can no longer be covered up..

 

I think you greatly underestimate Trump.  He has a core of tens of millions of ordinary, middle class people who are tired of the globalist leftward drift of government.  When Trump ran he was running more as an independent than a Republican.  He knows a lot of his base are fed up with all government and he promised to clear the swamp.

Trudeau and the Liberals don't really have much of a clue on NAFTA.  Taking progressives ideas like native issues, environmental issues, and labour issues to the bargaining table was a disastrous move.  That's exactly the kind of thing that Trump hates.  Also trying to negotiate a deal with a tri-party deal which includes Mexico was a serious mistake as well.  Trump made it clear during the election his main concern with NAFTA was Mexico not Canada.  Now Trudeau and the Liberals have made Canada a big concern for Trump.  If we get through this reasonably unscathed we will be very fortunate indeed.  NAFTA could be finished.  Then Canada will have to negotiate piece meal for each industry.   That could be very costly for trade.  We already signed a trade deal with Europe and some other countries.  It is not easy or even possible to replace the U.S. with other countries.

Edited by blackbird
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Have to say Chrystia Freeland was ill-advised to criticize Harper's unhelpful comments in a tweet and keep the controversy alive. This puts Scheer in a difficult spot and makes it harder for him to support the government. When it comes to NAFTA we need some omertà and present a united front - this should be as non partisan an issue as possible for Canadians. I hope the current spat has nothing to do with protecting Morneau. 

Edited by SpankyMcFarland

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4 hours ago, Thinkinoutsidethebox said:

Okay, the US buys Canadian built cars and Canada buys US built cars. Canada exports oil, grains and meat to the US, the US exports fuel, oil based products, grain products and processed meat to Canada etc.. Canadians are employed creating and mining raw materials, Americans are employed refining and producing finished products, I get that. Now this is Canada's basic trade agreements with most of our trading partners including Mexico.

 

The problem of course is that Canada and Mexico build more autos for export and sale in the United States than are consumed domestically.   There is no present Canadian or Mexican major automotive make or final assembly car plants in the U.S.    Canada and Mexico want free trade access to not only the largest market economy in the world, but also the American investment capital that is lacking in both nations.   50% of Canadian manufacturing output is American owned. 

 

Quote

If Canada produced refined and finished products for our own use as well as for export and imported products we cannot produce efficiently (bananas, coffee, cocoa etc.) why would that not be a good alternative? It would employ allot of people and move us forward technologically as well. 

 

 

Canada does produce finished goods, but not on a scale/volume that can compete with cheaper alternatives....labour and energy costs are higher than in Mexico or even U.S. right-to-work states.   Canada's raw materials sector is said to suffer from "Dutch disease", again because of the influence and dependence on foreign capital investment.

https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/the-canadian-dollar-oil-and-canadas-dutch-disease/article20509692/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&

 

Quote

Our government is on the verge of sacrificing whole industries for this, I realize these are relatively small industries (dairy, car parts etc.) but they are still Canadian industries that are doing relatively well as they operate now, why not leave them alone?  If you want German or American cheese, go there and enjoy it... They can come and enjoy ours

 

Because other nations will not accept Canada's protectionist policies while granting free trade access to their markets.   NAFTA negotiations are really about defining and setting limits for how much protection and dumping is acceptable within a free trade framework.   A majority of Canadians disapproved of FTA/NAFTA at the time they were negotiated,  with many railing against the free trade with the U.S. and later Mexico (e.g. activist author Maude Barlow).

Ross Perot explained to Americans that NAFTA would be a giant sucking sound over 25 years ago....and he was right.

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2 hours ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

Have to say Chrystia Freeland was ill-advised to criticize Harper's unhelpful comments in a tweet and keep the controversy alive. This puts Scheer in a difficult spot and makes it harder for him to support the government.

 

Did Freeland really pop-off on Twitter ?

This specific NAFTA issue aside, I find it remarkable that Freeland (or Trudeau) would join and follow Trump's penchant and trend setting for using Twitter / tweets to express views in such a very public way.   

Perhaps if they can't beat Trump the old fashioned way with carefully parsed speeches, they will have to join him in the pithy Twittersphere mud.

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5 hours ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

 

The problem of course is that Canada and Mexico build more autos for export and sale in the United States than are consumed domestically.   There is no present Canadian or Mexican major automotive make or final assembly car plants in the U.S.    Canada and Mexico want free trade access to not only the largest market economy in the world, but also the American investment capital that is lacking in both nations.   50% of Canadian manufacturing output is American owned. 

 

 

Canada does produce finished goods, but not on a scale/volume that can compete with cheaper alternatives....labour and energy costs are higher than in Mexico or even U.S. right-to-work states.   Canada's raw materials sector is said to suffer from "Dutch disease", again because of the influence and dependence on foreign capital investment.

https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/the-canadian-dollar-oil-and-canadas-dutch-disease/article20509692/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&

 

 

Because other nations will not accept Canada's protectionist policies while granting free trade access to their markets.   NAFTA negotiations are really about defining and setting limits for how much protection and dumping is acceptable within a free trade framework.   A majority of Canadians disapproved of FTA/NAFTA at the time they were negotiated,  with many railing against the free trade with the U.S. and later Mexico (e.g. activist author Maude Barlow).

Ross Perot explained to Americans that NAFTA would be a giant sucking sound over 25 years ago....and he was right.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_automobiles_manufactured_in_the_United_States  ?

And Canada's finished goods production is dropping daily. Funny thing is much of it went to the US (heavy trucks, locomotives, autos are a few), it's estimated half of Bombardier's C class production is headed south. Yet the US is on a fairly level field as Canada as far as the cost of doing business. 

The argument some goods would cost more if manufactured in Canada doesn't make sense in a way. What I mean is if we export the raw products, have them refined and manufactured into finished goods abroad then import them we have just given all that money away. If we keep those processes within our borders that money stays within the Canadian borders, it just circulates within the country.

We constantly running trade deficits and we are getting more and more desperate to find trading partners as evidenced by trading with countries with poorer and poorer human rights and environmental records. And signing trade deals that'll bring us even bigger deficits. It's like running balances on credit cards and instead of paying them off we just get more.

Ross Perot and Trump are right, the more "free" trade deals we sign the bigger the vacuum gets. 

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5 hours ago, Thinkinoutsidethebox said:

....And Canada's finished goods production is dropping daily. Funny thing is much of it went to the US (heavy trucks, locomotives, autos are a few), it's estimated half of Bombardier's C class production is headed south. Yet the US is on a fairly level field as Canada as far as the cost of doing business. 

 

 

Automotive and locomotive production by subsidiaries in Canada was viable because U.S. corporations wanted to beat Canada's trade barriers and tariffs (EMD London was never a Canadian owned venture).  The 1960's Auto Pact was directly aimed at breaking down trade barriers for autos built and sold in Canada to the point that Canada even adopted U.S. regulatory requirements.

Some Canadians insist that products must be manufactured in Canada to sell in Canada because because this creates jobs and attracts capital investment, but there is no equivalent reciprocal arrangement for Canadian owned firms doing business in the U.S. (e.g. no final assembly plants).   Canadian owned and taxpayer funded Bombardier has just learned this lesson and bucks the trend if C-series final assembly actually moves to Alabama (Airbus).

No matter what happens with NAFTA, Canada and Mexico are better off economically if they reduce their lopsided dependence on exports to the U.S. by diversifying trade to other nations.

Trump is doing Canada a favour !

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On 10/28/2017 at 9:52 PM, SpankyMcFarland said:

I hope Harper didn't deliberately leak this. Negotiations with the Americans under Trump are difficult enough without former PMs getting involved in an unhelpful way. Trade between Mexico and Canada will increase and, in general, we should avoid purely bilateral negotiations which will always favour the stronger party. 

Not in this case. Trump thinks he's all buddy-buddy with us. Just don't tell him how many foreigners with dark skin we have now.

He's been bitching about Mexico for a long while, and his base eats it up. If he can't get anything else done he has to do something that pokes at Mexico so his base will approve. We do NOT need to get mixed in with that.

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7 hours ago, Thinkinoutsidethebox said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_automobiles_manufactured_in_the_United_States  ?

And Canada's finished goods production is dropping daily. Funny thing is much of it went to the US (heavy trucks, locomotives, autos are a few), it's estimated half of Bombardier's C class production is headed south. Yet the US is on a fairly level field as Canada as far as the cost of doing business.

For trade purposes, for Trump purposes, what's important is that we import lots of manufactured goods from the US. Much of what we send them is raw materials. That definitely favors the US as far as Trump is concerned - presuming he knows anything about it. If you leave off our oil and gas exports - which he wants, their trade surplus with us is much higher. The same goes for Mexico and us.

 

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Trump has a lot of clout since he can cancel or reject NAFTA any time.  Canada does have a few things which work in it's favour.  We have natural resources, including oil, natural gas, electricity from hydro-electric dams and water.   Do we also have uranium?  Once the whole NAFTA is opened up for renegotiation, which is what Trump did, I would think everything is on the table.

Edited by blackbird

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Canada will not be able to compete based on natural resources alone...not even with uranium.

The value add happens when raw materials are transported and processed into finished goods.

Exporting raw logs, barrels of bitumen, or purified uranium to be processed by other nations leaves a lot of money on the table.

Meanwhile, Canada's provinces fight with each other over development of the pipelines, plants and refineries that could capture such added value.

Edited by bush_cheney2004

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3 hours ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

Canada will not be able to compete based on natural resources alone...not even with uranium.

The value add happens when raw materials are transported and processed into finished goods.

Exporting raw logs, barrels of bitumen, or purified uranium to be processed by other nations leaves a lot of money on the table.

Meanwhile, Canada's provinces fight with each other over development of the pipelines, plants and refineries that could capture such added value.

Good point.  Our main industry is extracting natural resources.  I guess there is only so much value-added to resources that can be done because the market for it must be limited.  We can sell only so much logs, coal, oil, and natural gas.  Don't you think we should be able to find some way to capitalize more on raw resources?  Maybe get a bit for more them.  Paying 20 or 30% duty for exporting lumber doesn't make much sense.  Are we selling raw logs to the U.S?  Maybe we should stop doing that and sell more lumber instead at a higher price. What's the solution to that one?  Government cannot tell companies what to produce.  But they can negotiate trade deals that might encourage selling more of something, like more lumber or natural gas/oil.

Our biggest problem is the liberal left who won't let us build pipelines and sell our oil overseas.  The next big problem is the courts and liberals who require us to negotiate with native bands and native leaders to develop resources and other projects while at the same time telling the government to pay millions to aggrieved Muslims and aboriginals.  The third problem is the strong environmental lobby and NDP that obeys them.   Is there anybody in Canada that represents the interests of ordinary Canadians?

Edited by blackbird

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2 hours ago, blackbird said:

Good point.  Our main industry is extracting natural resources.  I guess there is only so much value-added to resources that can be done because the market for it must be limited.  We can sell only so much logs, coal, oil, and natural gas.  Don't you think we should be able to find some way to capitalize more on raw resources?  Maybe get a bit for more them. 

We could... I don't know... make things out of those raw materials? Crazy talk, I know. 

Quote

Is there anybody in Canada that represents the interests of ordinary Canadians?

No. 

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On 10/28/2017 at 9:52 PM, SpankyMcFarland said:

I hope Harper didn't deliberately leak this. Negotiations with the Americans under Trump are difficult enough without former PMs getting involved in an unhelpful way. Trade between Mexico and Canada will increase and, in general, we should avoid purely bilateral negotiations which will always favour the stronger party. 

My guess would be it was a Liberal leak to distract from Morneau. Check the timing out as to what was happening when it was released. No way Harper leaked it. It actually causes problems for the PC leader.

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I think its extremely premature to know what  is happening. I am no Liberal but I do not think they are doing anything different than what the Tories would have done. With due respect to them, and I  have little to be fair they brought in Mulroney and other Tories to advise them. I think they are handling it in a bi-partisan manner so far.

I think Trump is sending signals albeit indirect ones that are making it impossible for his team to negotiate. Trump is obsessive and believes blowing hot air and acting like a bully is smart negotiations.

He is like the Aesop's fable where the Wind bets the Sun he can get the man's coat off faster and blows and blows, and all that happens is the man holds his coat tighter until the Sun shines down and gets the coat off real fast.

Trump is causing both the Mexicano and Canadian negotiators to just dig in their heels at his loud noises. It has not detracted one iota from the real issues of free trade that would benefit all three-but it is preventing discussion of them.

The concept the US can be isolationist in a global market is for people who try justify their congenital issues from inbreeding.

Edited by Rue

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5 minutes ago, Rue said:

....The concept the US can be isolationist in a global market is for people who try justify their congenital issues from inbreeding.

 

The only thing inbred for NAFTA is just how much Canada and Mexico depend on trade with a single nation....the United States.

...that is far more "isolationist".

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