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paxamericana

China surrendering

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Looks like uncle sam is winning and winning hard. China doesn't have the power to bear its fang against US dominance. Let that be a lesson to you anti-Americans. 

Take our trade deal and avoid massive national humiliation. It's almost gunboat diplomacy all over again, forcing the Chinese to open up their financial market. 

Liu Yuhui, a researcher with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and chief economist with TF Securities, a mainland brokerage, said at a forum in Beijing on Wednesday that the trade war had disrupted Beijing’s original plan of a smooth de-risking campaign but China would rather take the pain to cut debt instead of inflating the problem through fiscal expansion or monetary easing.

“There’s no other choice – China has to tighten its belt for the next three to five years,” Liu said.

“The Chinese leaders have acknowledged it does no good to go back to isolation to confront [the US],” said Larry Hu, chief China economist of Macquarie Capital in Hong Kong. “They still have their eyes on opening up.”

 

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/article/2155886/can-china-survive-trade-war-seducing-us-firms-and-fixing-economys

"On the external front, Beijing has accelerated market liberalisation. By opening up the domestic financial system, cutting tariffs and reducing hurdles for foreign direct investment (FDI), China is embracing more, not less, interaction with the outside world, unlike the protectionist US."

https://www.scmp.com/business/article/2155691/retaliate-reform-liberalise-three-ways-china-will-respond-new-us-tariffs

 

Edited by paxrom

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"On the external front, Beijing has accelerated market liberalisation. By opening up the domestic financial system, cutting tariffs and reducing hurdles for foreign direct investment (FDI), China is embracing more, not less, interaction with the outside world, unlike the protectionist US."

This sounds a lot more like sidestepping than surrendering.   

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45 minutes ago, eyeball said:

This sounds a lot more like sidestepping than surrendering.   

Its surrendering. They were opposed to opening up their market to us but trump pressed them hard. Scmp is their government news, trying to save face.

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Surrendering or not, President Trump has certainly thrown a monkey wrench into China's 2025 economic planning.    I'm sure nobody stood up at the People's Party meeting and screamed "What about Trump ?!" the way Sylvania use to scream "What about Sony ?!" in its TV commercials.

 

 

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48 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

Surrendering or not, President Trump has certainly thrown a monkey wrench into China's 2025 economic planning.    I'm sure nobody stood up at the People's Party meeting and screamed "What about Trump ?!" the way Sylvania use to scream "What about Sony ?!" in its TV commercials.

 

 

There's a reason why they didn't force tesla to do a joint venture.

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1 hour ago, paxrom said:

Its surrendering. They were opposed to opening up their market to us but trump pressed them hard. Scmp is their government news, trying to save face.

I'm not convinced the Chinese are doing much more than humoring Trump. My guess is that they have a pretty solid read on his idiosyncrasies. The real proof they're committed to liberalization would be to drop the preferential "developing" economy status they're afforded under WTO rules. But there's much more to free and fair trade than simply adjusting tariff and investment rules. Non-tariff barriers are equally problematic. A friend of mine who lived in South Korea for a few years talked about the lack of imported products available to consumers in that country. When discussing this with locals she was asked "Why would we buy foreign stuff that we can make here?" SK's ascension to developed world status was, of course, propelled by exports to developed countries as is now happening with China. But China, South Korea and even Japan, which all retain significant protectionist policies, customs and practices, lobby against American protectionism, which seems hypocritical.

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The chinese objective is china 2025. They are trying to do that at an aggressive pace and that pissed off the rest of the world. What sources in china says is that there is internal struggle between reformist who wants to play by the rules and xi 2025 people.

Edited by paxrom

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1 hour ago, turningrite said:

I'm not convinced the Chinese are doing much more than humoring Trump. My guess is that they have a pretty solid read on his idiosyncrasies. 

It doesn't take a genius to realize that Trump is a bully, and the moment you start making concessions he will scent weakness and then simply demand more.

Larry Kudlow gave a speech a couple of days ago on progress and basically says the Chinese haven't given an inch and show no signs of being willing to do so.

 

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3 hours ago, GostHacked said:

China is the next new superpower and the USA has helped them to get there.

Previous administration yeah but I think its beyond that, I think it was a globalist agenda from both republican and democrat that did that. 

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On 7/21/2018 at 10:51 AM, GostHacked said:

China is the next new superpower and the USA has helped them to get there.

China is already the world's second most important superpower in terms of combined military and economic clout and is nimbly using both to rise to the top. Poor old Trump seems to think that power flows from military hardware (i.e hard power) and forgets that soft power, including economic influence, is actually much more important. China might already have overtaken the U.S. in economic clout. Once the Chinese consolidate their influence in Eastern Asia and the Western Pacific they may well be the world's premier superpower as the U.S. seems destined to pursue isolationism and despite significant military capabilities Russia's economy is too small and too resource-dependent to sustain any significant degree of global influence.

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14 minutes ago, turningrite said:

Poor old Trump seems to think that power flows from military hardware (i.e hard power) and forgets that soft power, including economic influence, is actually much more important.

Haven't seen him use much of that military hardware yet, despite the rantings we hear from hysterical leftist media. On the other hand I do see him using economics as a weapon, exactly as you subscribe. Stop watching CNN.

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9 minutes ago, OftenWrong said:

Haven't seen him use much of that military hardware yet, despite the rantings we hear from hysterical leftist media. On the other hand I do see him using economics as a weapon, exactly as you subscribe. Stop watching CNN.

Are you watching Fox News?

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1 hour ago, turningrite said:

Are you watching Fox News?

No I don't watch it. I had that channel for about one week and it was too stupid for me to continue paying for. On the other hand CBC and CTV news are nearly as bad, and worsening every day. I draw my conclusions from a variety of online sources, along with careful google searching.

It doesn't matter to me if it's left or right wing, but if there's hyperbole. Anyway this is off topic.

Edited by OftenWrong
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4 hours ago, OftenWrong said:

Haven't seen him use much of that military hardware yet, despite the rantings we hear from hysterical leftist media. On the other hand I do see him using economics as a weapon, exactly as you subscribe. Stop watching CNN.

In-your-face blackmail does not really influence people. It just makes them angry at you. And even if they give in they bide their time, waiting for an opportunity to pay you back.

I saw a story a while back about how every time there's some kind of international gathering in Asia there are like a dozen Chinese diplomats there shaking hands, talking to people, getting acquainted, suggesting deals. The US maybe sends one. The US has kind of withdrawn from Asia, not even appointing ambassadors or higher level managers and executives at the State Department who have expertise to replace the Democratic appointees who have left. Trump has ordered a huge cut in the budget at State, and so American soft power and influence is fading as China's is rising.

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15 hours ago, Argus said:

In-your-face blackmail does not really influence people. It just makes them angry at you. And even if they give in they bide their time, waiting for an opportunity to pay you back.

I saw a story a while back about how every time there's some kind of international gathering in Asia there are like a dozen Chinese diplomats there shaking hands, talking to people, getting acquainted, suggesting deals. The US maybe sends one. The US has kind of withdrawn from Asia, not even appointing ambassadors or higher level managers and executives at the State Department who have expertise to replace the Democratic appointees who have left. Trump has ordered a huge cut in the budget at State, and so American soft power and influence is fading as China's is rising.

First, thanks for the informative posts even if I don't agree with everything you say. Trump deliberately chose his path to success by use of rhetoric and personal insults toward his adversaries, and likely has many enemies inside and outside the USA. My guess is he thrives on the use of high-stakes drama. I don't see him as a dummy, but someone who likes to use bluster to put his opponent off balance. The opening argument is not the closing argument, IE. he comes out saying things that sound extreme, but appear to be carefully worded bluffing. He loves to get people excited or angry. Sometimes it works, sometimes it backfires.

Interesting observation about apparent US withdrawal from making trade deals with Asia. I think the perception that US global outreach is contracting started under Obama. The first thing Trump did as president was back out of the TPP. Many people were happy about that, and some in Canada wished we would do likewise. We all know that any business we do with them represents a transfer of wealth and information to an adversarial superpower that is communist. No one likes the fact that China has an abhorrent record on human rights, exploits their workers and unregulated economy to sell us cheap goods which are literally garbage right out of the box. Now we get to drink Chinese milk and eat Chinese wheat.

I know many people who want to see Canada, and western nations in general become more economically independent. Whereas old China had only their weapons and military,  they have now become an economic superpower as well. But that means a reversal of the course we are on. Many warned in the past that doing business with China would mean a loss of prosperity on the whole for the west. That globalism would lead to outsourcing of jobs, even in high-tech sectors. It doesn't take a genius to figure these things out. But the road "back", if there even is one, means short-term pain for long-term gain. And this is not Trump's original idea, but he is among only a few who promote it.

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20 hours ago, OftenWrong said:

No I don't watch it. I had that channel for about one week and it was too stupid for me to continue paying for. On the other hand CBC and CTV news are nearly as bad, and worsening every day. I draw my conclusions from a variety of online sources, along with careful google searching.

It doesn't matter to me if it's left or right wing, but if there's hyperbole. Anyway this is off topic.

Why, then, do you assume I watch CNN? I do watch it but also watch other news channels. Preferably, though, I read, and I try to read as many sources as possible (as you'd see by reading my posts), which is becoming more difficult in the online 'paywall' environment.

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4 hours ago, OftenWrong said:

Interesting observation about apparent US withdrawal from making trade deals with Asia.

Not just trade deals. It is withdrawing everywhere from making contacts, friends, from the kind of ongoing dialogue between diplomats at all kinds of conferences and meetings which leads to both intelligence and understanding of the world, to trade deals, and to military and defense information. As well as, of course, being able to influence those people. 

4 hours ago, OftenWrong said:

I think the perception that US global outreach is contracting started under Obama. The first thing Trump did as president was back out of the TPP. Many people were happy about that, and some in Canada wished we would do likewise. We all know that any business we do with them represents a transfer of wealth and information to an adversarial superpower that is communist.

You misunderstand the entire purpose of the TPP. It was not with China. It did not include China. It was to form a trading block between western and Asian countries which would help to resist Chinese economic influence as well as hopefully profit all involved.

 

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5 hours ago, Argus said:

It was to form a trading block between western and Asian countries which would help to resist Chinese economic influence as well as hopefully profit all involved.

Also debatable. I read that China was invited to be part of the TPP but they declined, as it did not serve their interests well enough. IE it was not primarily intended to exclude China.

"China was invited to join the TPP by Hillary Clinton in 2012."
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On 7/21/2018 at 1:59 PM, paxamericana said:

Previous administration yeah but I think its beyond that, I think it was a globalist agenda from both republican and democrat that did that. 

Right, so the USA can't bitch about it at all since they did this to themselves. 

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2 minutes ago, GostHacked said:

Right, so the USA can't bitch about it at all since they did this to themselves. 

The US can bitch about what ever they want and do what ever they want. The rest of the world will just have to live with it. We have the best economy and military force ever. There's been no other force like this, if china wants to compete then fine by us. We're not throwing in the white flag. 

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On 7/21/2018 at 1:59 PM, paxamericana said:

Previous administration yeah but I think its beyond that, I think it was a globalist agenda from both republican and democrat that did that. 

And you really think Trump is going to change that? Even if he wanted to? You'll be able to equate it to Obama closing GITMO, which as you know , did not happen.

On 7/24/2018 at 10:48 AM, paxamericana said:

The US can bitch about what ever they want and do what ever they want. The rest of the world will just have to live with it. We have the best economy and military force ever. There's been no other force like this, if china wants to compete then fine by us. We're not throwing in the white flag. 

Well, again as I mentioned in other threads, and I shall sound like a broken record again, but with a different remix, don't complain about getting a punch in the face AFTER you punched someone else in the face, knowing you have no standing on needing to punch someone else in the face.

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On 7/24/2018 at 8:48 AM, paxamericana said:

The US can bitch about what ever they want and do what ever they want. The rest of the world will just have to live with it. We have the best economy and military force ever. There's been no other force like this, if china wants to compete then fine by us. We're not throwing in the white flag. 

Problem is, the US does NOT have "the best economy ever".  The bubble is the result of speculative financial parlour tricks (Casino Capitalism) NOT productive endeavour within the economy (the actual Capitalist venue).   See those endless parades of containers from China coming into every port and plugging up every road and railroad?  See those Chinese goods on every shelf in WalMart, Harbour Freight, EVERY furniture store, etc.? THAT is where wealth is created - and it is no longer on Main Street in these here hewnauted staytes.  Until the WORLD kicks Wall Street to the curb, inflation is the only growth in the US (and pent up inflationary forces).

Meanwhile, China will continue to exploit its developing nation status and produce ever more products, steal every more technology, clobber every market they enter and continue to pull far, far ahead of the USA (you may know the place - the one with $20 Trillion of debt after bailing out Wall Street and trying to make Main Street think the government can prop up an economy with "quantitative easing".)

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On 7/25/2018 at 6:00 PM, GostHacked said:

And you really think Trump is going to change that? Even if he wanted to? You'll be able to equate it to Obama closing GITMO, which as you know , did not happen.

Not only is he doing it but he's doing it well. Look at all the heads exploding on CNN and MSNBC. It's great. 

On 7/25/2018 at 6:00 PM, GostHacked said:

Well, again as I mentioned in other threads, and I shall sound like a broken record again, but with a different remix, don't complain about getting a punch in the face AFTER you punched someone else in the face, knowing you have no standing on needing to punch someone else in the face.

Right because were punched in the face for the past oh i don't know...25 years....  by deadbeat allies and trade cheats like china, Canada and many others...

The only one who is upset about it is the rest of the world for not being able to do anything when Trump decided to flex America's hegemonic power. 

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